Thoughts on offense: why it might not be as bad as we think this year, and how it relates to roster building strategy

[billsredneck1]

17 hours ago, ddaryl said:

 

 

oh but that elusive 32nd spot is there for the taking  [/joking]

we were only 14 yds. out of that spot last year. it can not get any worse

Edited May 11, 2018 by billsredneck1

[Nihilarian]

5 hours ago, grb said:

 

The quote to pull from this massive effort is this :

 

"A QB with "average NFL QB smarts" will do just fine in the EP. A really smart QB can make this offense nearly unstoppable, even without the best talent around him. This idea may shed light into why AJ and JA were brought in."

 

I'd bet Dennison said something very similar in convincing McDermott to bench Taylor for Peterman. And how did that work out? I don't want to get into a discussion of NP's performance against the Chargers, Patriots, Colts, and Jaguars, but the evidence didn't support the conclusion you can take an unskilled QB, mediocre pass protection and sub-grade receivers - add "System" - and suddenly make gold thru alchemy. The past two seasons the Bills dumped Woods, dumped Hogan, dumped Goodwin, dumped Gillsilee, saw Harvin & K Williams' careers implode, dumped Watkins, scared off Boldin (who saw the Watkins trade as a tank-move), and saw the lesser talent they brought in under-perform by injury or rookie-flusters. They just traded away their best tackle, while seeing their best center and guard retire. In the draft they did next to nothing to solve any of this.

 

If you want Allen to succeed (much less McCarron), then don't set him up to fail.  

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This is my fear as McD is a defensive minded coach and they tend to favor the defense over the offense. This team just lost an all-pro at LG and an above average center & left tackle. The players for the offensive line on the roster are now a bunch of scrubs in comparison to what the team lost this offseason.

 

They brought in Dawkins to upgrade the RT position and justifiably so because Mills is the weakest link. That plan went out the window so what now?

 

Center's, Bodine, Redmond. Guards, Ducasse, Groy, Miller, Teller. Tackles, Dawkins, James, McDermott, Mills, Newhouse, Wesley.

 

I don't think it matters much what type of offensive scheme this team runs this year if the RB can't gain yards because there are no holes. I can foresee it now with the coaches blaming the RB for not hitting that crease quicker...when it lasts a split second. This really sucks for McCoy 

 

The QB's won't have time to throw with the pass rush in their face after 2 seconds. I look at the first few games Ravens, Chargers, Vikings, Packers and all I see are jailbreaks with whoever is at QB for Buffalo running for his life. 

 

 

BTW, thanks for posting OP, good read. Good discussion. 

 

Edited May 10, 2018 by Nihilarian

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

This is my fear as McD is a defensive minded coach and they tend to favor the defense over the offense. This team just lost an all-pro at LG and an above average center & left tackle. The players for the offensive line on the roster are now a bunch of scrubs in comparison to what the team lost this offseason.

 

They brought in Dawkins to upgrade the RT position and justifiably so because Mills is the weakest link. That plan went out the window so what now?

 

Center's, Bodine, Redmond. Guards, Ducasse, Groy, Miller, Teller. Tackles, Dawkins, James, McDermott, Mills, Newhouse, Wesley.

 

I don't think it matters much what type of offensive scheme this team runs this year if the RB can't gain yards because there are no holes. I can foresee it now with the coaches blaming the RB for not hitting that crease quicker...when it lasts a split second. This really sucks for McCoy 

 

The QB's won't have time to throw with the pass rush in their face after 2 seconds. I look at the first few games Ravens, Chargers, Vikings, Packers and all I see are jailbreaks with whoever is at QB for Buffalo running for his life. 

 

 

BTW, thanks for posting OP, good read. Good discussion. 

 

Oline could be just as bad as you fear.  If it appears to be that awful, I hope they redshirt Allen.  OTOH, Beane willingly traded Glenn and offered Madman Incognito a take it or leave it contract.  Wood is the only entirely unpremeditated loss.  So, I infer the coaching staff has a higher opinion of the overall quality of the line than most fans do.  Hopefully, they have some warrant for greater implicit optimism.

[Bing Bong]

We didn't lose receiver talent because we had none to begin with. KB being healthy alone makes it 10x better because we at least have one guy that could start for any NFL team.. that's not a tall order. Literally no other receiver fit that bill. So improvement at WR, give me a quarterback that simply doesn't lose the game single handedly.. and dat secondary can carry this team just like last year. O line deteriorated but that is the only thing that's for sure. 

 

Between healthy KB and WR it's a wash. Pass blocking is scary but Shady is the type that can compensate. Daboll would have to really try hard to be worse than Dennison. 

 

Barring a QB disaster (Don't start Peterman against jags mcd pls), we have at worst 90% of our offensive capability. And our defense could step up to like a 150% ceiling (look like the jags last year) if my new favorite MLB can stop the run, and the sky is the limit how much our secondary will improve with a core young talent going into year 2 and picking up chemistry collectively and improveme at the individual level.

 

That secondary had chemistry from day 1. They fight for each other, take accountability, and want to support and see Tre White be a Revis talent. AND they are the most remarkable unit I've seen comparable to Schwartz's front 7. That's only getting better.

 

So call me bullish on the bills. Just don't see how we can't do just as good as last year with our strongest unit getting even better.

 

And don't discount McD's improvement as rookie head coach. He polished a turd rookie year, and few coaches can hang their hat on that. Only rook I'd put above him is Sean mcvay, and both have a bright future. When's the last time rookie coaches had such immediate success? I honestly don't know maybe I'm putting to much stock in this.

 

I looked it up. 3 coaches come to mind Jim harbaugh and Sean Payton. That's an impressive group. Although Rex is the 3rd guy that's in this conversation lol.

[Richard Noggin]

Strong thread.

 

That is all.

[Sky Diver]

It would have been interesting to see what Daboll’s offense would have looked like at Alabama last year if Tua had been the starting QB.

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

12 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

.I don't think it matters much what type of offensive scheme this team runs this year if the RB can't gain yards because there are no holes. I can foresee it now with the coaches blaming the RB for not hitting that crease quicker...when it lasts a split second. This really sucks for McCoy 

 

The QB's won't have time to throw with the pass rush in their face after 2 seconds. I look at the first few games Ravens, Chargers, Vikings, Packers and all I see are jailbreaks with whoever is at QB for Buffalo running for his life. 

 

 

BTW, thanks for posting OP, good read. Good discussion. 

 

 

Reading this reminded me of Tecmo Bowl when the other guy picks your play. 

 

I think there might be some struggles early in the year on the line. That's typical when you have multiple new faces there. 

[Paul Costa]

20 hours ago, eball said:

I learned a lot reading the OP -- thanks!

???nice job !! Totally agree with most of your points!!

[ddaryl]

15 hours ago, billsredneck1 said:

we were only 14 yds. out of that spot last year. it can not get any worse

 

obviously it can. all we needed was - 14 yds

[Chandler#81]

Good post OP. OC’s come and go, but your premise makes sense for an offense definitely in transition.

[auburnbillsbacker]

22 hours ago, kota said:

Offense was terrible last year.  Only direction is going up.

I like your optimism but I can't imagine it going anywhere but down.  We lost so much talent on that side of the ball.   

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

53 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Good post OP. OC’s come and go, but your premise makes sense for an offense definitely in transition.

 

Thanks! 

 

Not just the offense, but the roster is in transition as well. EP offense seems to make that transition easier, and that trickles down to defensive roster decisions as well, as far as cap allocation goes. 

 

There was an article posted yesterday shortly after I posted this thread, giving reasons why Allen should start right away. One of the reasons brought up was the offensive scheme. For a rookie QB, one of the biggest transitions is grasping the playbook and terminology. That's on top of things like working on footwork, studying defenses, etc., as well as "little" things like getting familiar with living in a new place, getting to know your teammates, learning their strengths and weaknesses, building chemistry, etc. Having a simplified playbook probably helps a QB to be able to have more time to do those things, which, in theory, should help to speed up the overall learning curve and his development. 

 

Many people are dead set on the idea that Allen needs to "sit" and work on certain aspects and tendencies of his game before starting, but with this offense, and if the theory is correct, it might not take as long for him to improve as we think. I've always been of the belief that a QB either "has it" or he doesn't, and sitting him doesn't really "help" as much as people want to believe, and only prolongs the process of finding out if he's going to be the guy. IMO, sitting is far less valuable to a player's progression than learning from live game action is.

 

I'm much more in favor of letting him start earlier, and taking his lumps now, and in a league where coaches and GMs have a window of only a couple years to prove that they deserve the job, perhaps Beane and McDermott share that same idea. They traded up for him in the top 10, so they obviously believe in him enough to think that he will be the guy. Let's start the process of finding out. Winning now isn't the goal. Its long term success. 

Edited May 11, 2018 by Drunken Pygmy Goat

[Chandler#81]

As for Allen starting right away, I think it’s inevitable. Will he outshine McCaron & 5Pick in preseason, while dazzling the crowd? Sure, I think it’s a given against vanilla defenses with many substitute players in & out. Mc & 5P can’t hold a candle to Josh’s arm talent and he’s gonna go deep a few times. 

But evertthing will be very different on the road in the Opener..

[Kwai San]

37 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

As for Allen starting right away, I think it’s inevitable. Will he outshine McCaron & 5Pick in preseason, while dazzling the crowd? Sure, I think it’s a given against vanilla defenses with many substitute players in & out. Mc & 5P can’t hold a candle to Josh’s arm talent and he’s gonna go deep a few times. 

But evertthing will be very different on the road in the Opener..

 

I just hope and pray that McD REMEMBERS 5Pick's (GREAT name btw) lovely start against the Rams and keeps AJ on the bench until the O-Line has gelled long enough for his to count to 2 before some big ole dude is getting ready to hammer him......if Allen starts we gonna be in for a looooooong season.  Rookie QB's with weak lines don't make a winning combo.  Sure hope there is a solid plan for preserving Allen.....no need to watch him get obliterated out there.....

[ColoradoBills]

19 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

This is my fear as McD is a defensive minded coach and they tend to favor the defense over the offense. This team just lost an all-pro at LG and an above average center & left tackle. The players for the offensive line on the roster are now a bunch of scrubs in comparison to what the team lost this offseason.

 

They brought in Dawkins to upgrade the RT position and justifiably so because Mills is the weakest link. That plan went out the window so what now?

 

Center's, Bodine, Redmond. Guards, Ducasse, Groy, Miller, Teller. Tackles, Dawkins, James, McDermott, Mills, Newhouse, Wesley.

 

I don't think it matters much what type of offensive scheme this team runs this year if the RB can't gain yards because there are no holes. I can foresee it now with the coaches blaming the RB for not hitting that crease quicker...when it lasts a split second. This really sucks for McCoy 

 

The QB's won't have time to throw with the pass rush in their face after 2 seconds. I look at the first few games Ravens, Chargers, Vikings, Packers and all I see are jailbreaks with whoever is at QB for Buffalo running for his life. 

 

 

BTW, thanks for posting OP, good read. Good discussion. 

 

 

Great post.  I agree the OL is going to be the big key on offense this year.

No matter what some say, the OL is made up of other team "cast offs" and a few young hopefuls.

If Castillo and Dabol can get these guys playing decently together quickly the O should do OK.

I have commented on the 1st 4 games already, I don't want Allen to see any of those teams.

 

With the inexperienced QB's the Bill's have it will be all about the O-Line!

 

6 hours ago, Drunken Pygmy Goat said:

 

Reading this reminded me of Tecmo Bowl when the other guy picks your play. 

 

I think there might be some struggles early in the year on the line. That's typical when you have multiple new faces there. 

 

Good Thread Pygmy.  One would think the OL will come together during the season but you never know.................

 

One player who is going to have a critical year is Dawkins.  He played well substituting for Glenn but has only 11 starts.

This year teams will be game planning for him (they also got some tape on him now) and I hope he continues to improve and not digress.

 

The other player is Groy.  He also has only had 11 starts in his career (7-Center, 4-RG), he needs a breakout year.

[GunnerBill]

The E-P is not some magical system that makes average talent look great. The reason New England's average talent looks great is the combination of the best coach and best Quarterback of all time. 

 

If the E-P was so much easier and more flexible then why is every team in the NFL not running it? Just get a load of cheap slot receivers a quick release Quarterback and watch the Championships roll in. 

 

The magic in New England is not system. It is Quarterback and coach. 

 

Now none of that means I am unhappy with the Bills' OC hire and I don't expect a huge downturn in offensive performance. Last year's O wasn't a high watermark. I just think the biggest problem on offense last year was talent level at the skill positions. Benjamin being healthy would help, Zay stepping up would help and obviously if Allen wins the job and is immediately a stud that helps massively. But I don't expect Daboll's offense to suddenly overcome the same talent deficiency if those things don't happen. 

[Nihilarian]

20 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

Oline could be just as bad as you fear.  If it appears to be that awful, I hope they redshirt Allen.  OTOH, Beane willingly traded Glenn and offered Madman Incognito a take it or leave it contract.  Wood is the only entirely unpremeditated loss.  So, I infer the coaching staff has a higher opinion of the overall quality of the line than most fans do.  Hopefully, they have some warrant for greater implicit optimism.

 

 

I'm sure they have a plan.

 

Just as sure as Tom Donahoe had a plan when he traded for QB Drew Bledsoe and knew that he needed a better line to protect him. So Donahoe drafted a left tackle with the #1 pick that year, #4 overall. He blew it as Texas Tackle Mike Williams was never a LT and played as a RT for three years before switching to OG. Williams was considered a huge bust. 

 

In 2008 Dick Jauron and Marv Levy had a plan when they brought in over paid-high priced free agents LG Derrick Dockery, RT Langston Walker which really pissed off the underpaid all-pro left tackle so much so that he was talking about holding out. The line never improved with those free agents as they both stunk. JP Losman, Trent Edwards got pretty beat up behind some bad lines. Edwards was concussed out of the league and still suffers from them at a young age. 

 

Then, Dick Jauron, Russ Brandon had a plan traded away all-pro left tackle in Jason Peters who was considered one of the very best LTs in the league. Then drafted DE Aaron Maybin "bust" with the first pick and that left tackle position was manned by a 7th round draft choice. This was in 2009 and the Bills didn't really address the left tackle position until 2012 when they got lucky by drafting Cordy Glenn. The good thing Jauron did was draft OC Eric Wood in the first after Maybin pick and OG Andy Levitre with the 2nd second round pick. 

 

Buddy Nix had a plan in 2010 when he stated, "you're going to think I'm crazy, but we're not that far away" This was after Nix signed OT Cornell Green for 2 mill per to see him outright cut after week after 5 games. Meanwhile, HC Gailey cuts his starting QB in Trent Edwards after only two games and names Ryan Fitzpatrick as his starting QB only to watch him run for his life the next 6 games. The 2010 Buffalo Bills started the season 0-8 and finished 4-12. The Bills managed to do okay the next year as Nix was able to pull some band-aids scrubs off the waiver wire.

 

Doug Whaley, Doug Marone had a plan when they drafted rookie QB EJ Manuel only to not hire a QB coach or have a veteran QB on the roster so the only person that EJ, Thad Lewis and walk on QB Jeff Tuel had to learn from was an OC who had never been an NFL OC previously. He was the OC at Syracuse under Marrone the year before. what a cluster fluck. 

 

The Bills next hire a defensive minded HC who ruined a top 5 defense but he did manage to find the Bills starting QB who eventually took them to the playoffs. He was also responsible for signing an all-pro left guard that really helped solidify that line. Glenn was an overpaid LT who's play started to drop off until Incognito was signed and the same can be said for center Eric Wood. 

 

The Bills lost three solid starters on the offensive line and didn't do anything in the draft to fix that besides a 5th round pick at OG. You know how many 5th round picks actually make it and become a starter in the league? The Bills used that 3rd round pick on a DT and I'm not complaining because he was a steal. 

 

I've seen this same scenario play out over and over the last two decades of losing. Look back to the super bowl years to see HoF QB Jim Kelly had a pro bowl LT, LG, OC to protect him and HoF RB Thurman Thomas, HoF WR Andre Reed had those men helping them make plays. Even the AFL Championship teams had elite offensive lines. 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 11, 2018 by Nihilarian

[Dr. Who]

Well, there's no doubt one can chronicle (as you have) a long series of miscalculations.  This is a new regime, however.  So far, I am generally pleased with what they have done, so I don't feel they are fated to add one more link in the chain of inepititude.  I will be surprised if the oline is good this year.  I hope they can approach average and address deficiencies with next year's draft and free agency.

[ghostwriter]

On 5/10/2018 at 8:39 AM, Drunken Pygmy Goat said:

 

One of the things people say about Allen is that he's very smart and a quick study, so maybe that process won't be too slow, regardless of how much time and involvement Daboll has there. And while Cully may not be a QB whisperer or have the experience as a QB coach at the professional level, he's in this position for a reason. His job is very specific, and I'm sure he has a plan. If a guy like Joe Buscaglia can easily identify certain tendencies in Allen's game that need work, like opening his hips on throws to the left sideline, then I'm sure our staff has identified them as well, and will work on them. 

 

As far as Castillo and the line goes, I think we'll still see plenty of zone blocking concepts in the run game, but much more hat on hat down blocking as well. I didn't even bring up the run game in the OP, mainly because I really don't know exactly what to expect. What I do believe is that losing guys like Incognito and Wood may result in less pulling linemen, which is something that the Bills have done frequently over the last three years, regardless of who was coach or coordinator. It tailored to the strengths of those players, and Shady had many nice gains on those plays. I don't know enough about their replacements to know how well or fit they will be at pulling, so we'll just have to wait and see how often they do it in games to get an idea on that.

 

Thank you very much, you understand football way better than I ever will.

[Pirate Angel]

Will our offense generate a good enough passing threat to keep 8 men out of the box? Oviously shady will carry the load and take pressure off this young qbs, but how much help can we give him?