List of other Sub 60% college qbs with some NFL success

[Roundybout]

25 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

I agree. Both have rocket arms and have some good mobility. If you look at Stafford's NFL career, he was mostly a 60% passer during his first 5 years. The past 3 years he has been a 65% passer. For those who believe completion percentage equals accuracy, then his career shows that accuracy can be improved. 

 

He deosnt have to force it to Johnson anymore, so he has learned to open the field up.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

I agree that Allen's accuracy appears to be the biggest question that analysts and fans have about him as a prospect. Watching Allen play, I am less concerned about his accuracy and more concerned about his mechanics and footwork. He seems to miss more than he should on shorter passer, especially if he has to reset his feet.

 

The two are cause and effect.  Usually when a QB is accurate at times, and inaccurate at others it has to do with mechanics/footwork.

 

[racketmaster]

2 minutes ago, Chosenone said:

Here are Russell Wilson's college stats! 54%, 59% and 58% his 3 yrs at NC State.

 

2008	NC State	150	275	1,955	17	1	54.5	133.9	116	394	3.4	4
2009	NC State	224	378	3,027	31	11	59.3	147.8	103	260	2.5	4
2010	NC State	308	527	3,563	28	14	58.4	127.5	143	435	3.0	9
2011	Wisconsin	225	309	3,175	33	4	72.8	191.8	79	338	4.3	6

I remember that huge jump in percentage. I wonder how much that had to do with the passing schemes they ran at NC State and Wisconsin? Maybe receiving weapons and coaching had some impact as well. In any case, had Wilson not transferred to Wisconsin he could have become another success story as a sub 60% passer. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, QCity said:

People have used 60% solely because it's a round number.

 

I thought it came from Bill Parcells' 26-27-60 rule (26 starts, Wonderlic 27, 60% completion percentage) for drafting QB?

 

I mean, it is a round number, but the reason it came to prominence has to do with a Sports Illustrated article some time back about Bill Parcells and his rules for drafting QB.  Link to follow-up article:

https://www.ganggreennation.com/2016/4/5/11365596/how-accurate-is-the-26-27-60-rule-for-drafting-quarterbacks

 

 

[racketmaster]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The two are cause and effect.  Usually when a QB is accurate at times, and inaccurate at others it has to do with mechanics/footwork.

 

I'm no qb coach but believe this to be mostly true. However, I think there is first and foremost a natural arm accuracy that each individual has. By that I mean, if a player were to just stand still and try an hit objects at various distances, how accurate are they?. Then, the lower half comes into play and it is a significant part of being accurate, maybe more important than the natural arm accuracy part. 

[Seanbillsfan2206]

27 minutes ago, Magnum Force said:

I thought the same thing but it said from 1990 to the present. 

Ahhh ok. Well he can be a honorable mention

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

40 minutes ago, Juice_32 said:

Stafford jumps out to me. I think he and Allen are similar in a lot of ways. Allen is better on the move probably. 

 

If JA ends up having a Stafford-like career I'd be happy.

Right! When the last time a Bills QB has thrown for over 4500 yds and 30+ TD's.

[Capco]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I thought it came from Bill Parcells' 26-27-60 rule (26 starts, Wonderlic 27, 60% completion percentage) for drafting QB?

 

 

 

If so, then the question is:  why did Parcells choose 60%?

 

Probably because it's a round number.  

Edited May 7, 2018 by Capco

[Buffalo Boy]

I see 2(?!) SB wins out of this group.

Not terribly encouraging ?

[jr1]

a lot of those guys played when they let defensive backs get more physical

[racketmaster]

6 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:

I see 2(?!) SB wins out of this group.

Not terribly encouraging ?

I guess. But the Manning brothers, Brady and Roethlisberger have won 11 of the last 17 Super Bowls. Not too many other qbs have had much of a chance. 

[TPS]

If he had ONE more completion per game in his college career He would be at 60%....

 

[The Rev.Mattb74 ESQ.]

56 minutes ago, Seanbillsfan2206 said:

You forgot to add the greatest QB in Buffalo Bills history to this list.....

Joe Dufek

 

[QCity]

25 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I thought it came from Bill Parcells' 26-27-60 rule (26 starts, Wonderlic 27, 60% completion percentage) for drafting QB?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Parcells was different he had like 4 rules for drafting a QB (must have started 3 years, won so many games, etc).

 

That 26-27-60 rule was made up by an SI reporter (https://www.si.com/more-sports/2010/07/08/qb-rule) and as far as I can tell he picked 60% because it was round. Higher completion % is obviously better but I don't see any statistical significance with that number.

 

Allen's comp % is 4.7% less than Rosen's but people are acting like he can't hit the side of a barn. 

[ALLEN1QB]

Wow very interesting.

[Seanbillsfan2206]

6 minutes ago, The Rev.Mattb74 ESQ. said:

Joe Dufek

 

Dan manucci

[The Rev.Mattb74 ESQ.]

57 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

I know high completion % doesn’t always equal great accuracy but there is some correlation sometimes

 

Matt Stafford is a guy who had lower completion % in college but always threw a good ball.

 

He didn’t magically become accurate, he already was and The stats finally translated 

 

Josh Allen isn’t the most accurate QB I have ever seen but he does throw some very good balls. His deep ball and mid range game are both very good 

Actually I have a theory backed up by no evidence. His arm could be so strong that while he just guns it on longer throws, on short throws he may try to take something off it so his receivers don't have to catch a bullet from 10 yards away, and he loses accuracy in the process.

[vincec]

This list makes me feel a lot worse, not better. There aren’t many “franchise” QBs on that list. And if you throw out the guys before 2000, when QB completion percentages weren’t so inflated then there are basically none except for maybe Matt Ryan at 59.9%.

Edited May 7, 2018 by vincec

[Buffalo Barbarian]

1 hour ago, racketmaster said:

When discussing Josh Allen, inevitably his career  college completion percentage (56.2%) comes up in the conversation. Most analysts seem to be in agreement that there are very few examples in recent history of quarterbacks who have had sub 60% completion percentage and still had NFL success. Favre and Stafford seem to be the most cited examples of the anomalies. Therefore, Allen will have to be an “outlier” in order to have any measure of NFL. Allen is thought to end up being the next Jake Locker or Kyle Boller.  I tend to believe that completion percentage does not necessarily equal accuracy (many other factors come into play). But that discussion has been had many times before and I was just interested in seeing what other quarterbacks may be out there that had a sub 60% completion percentage and also a decent amount of NFL success. I went back to quarterbacks drafted 1990 and forward. I know the game has evolved since then and completion percentages tend to be much higher today because of the types of schemes teams tend to run at the college level. But I still think it was worth looking into especially since Allen has not run a gimmicky college offense but rather  he has operated in a pro style passing offense where he has been asked to make a higher percentage of difficult downfield throws (more like what quarterbacks were asked to do in the 1980’s and 1990’s).

 

Below is a list of other quarterbacks who have had at least a decent career and also had a less than 60% completion percentage in college. I know “decent” is subjective but I was looking at quarterbacks who have at least stuck around a long time as high end backups or at least had brief periods of solid success as a starter. This is not a complete list but I think it covers most if not all of the quality starters drafted from 1990 to the Present.

 

Brett Favre 52.4% Southern Miss. 1990

Mark Brunell 52.0% Washington 1993

Kerry Collins 56.3% Penn State 1995

Drew Bledsoe 54.3% Washington State 1993

Brian Griese 59.5% Michigan 1998

Jeff George 58.8% Illinois 1990

Jake Plummer 55.4% Arizona State 1996

Jeff Garcia 56.8% San Jose State 1994

Donovan McNabb 58.4% Syracuse 1999

Neil O’Donnell 58.8% Maryland 1990

Trent Dilfer 59.1% Fresno State 1994

Trent Green 55.8% Indiana 1993

Jake Delhomme 52.6% Louisiana 1997

Matt Hasselbeck 55.6% Boston College 1998

Mike Vick 56.0% Va Tech 2000

Tyrod Taylor 57.2% Va Tech 2011

Colin Kaepenick 58.2% 2011

Matthew Stafford 57.1% Georgia 2009

Josh McCown 51.2% SMU 2002

Carson Palmer 59.1% USC 2003

Kyle Orton 58.8% Purdue 2005

David Garrard 57.0% East Carolina 2002

Jay Cutler 57.2% Vanderbilt 2006

Matt Ryan 59.9% Boston College 2008

Brian Hoyer 55.8% Michigan State 2009

Derek Anderson 50.7% Oregon State 2005

Chad Henne 59.7% Michigan 2008

 

After looking back at the quarterbacks, I was surprised to find so many that were sub 60% since 1990. I was under the impression that there were only a handful since Brett Favre came out but there were at least 6-7 high quality starters in the group. Hopefully, this gives those stuck on Allen’s lower completion percentage a little more hope. And the positive thing for Allen is that he has some rare physical traits that can help him overcome the perceived inaccuracy issue.

 

Many of those played in old school offenses as did our QB which explains his lower than today's prospects percentage.

 

 

[Doc Brown]

The most successful NFL QB taken in the draft since the NFL realignment in 2002 with a  college completion percentage under 58% their final year of college was David Garrard.  The odds are against Allen regardless of how you spin it.