racketmaster Posted May 7, 2018 Posted May 7, 2018 When discussing Josh Allen, inevitably his career college completion percentage (56.2%) comes up in the conversation. Most analysts seem to be in agreement that there are very few examples in recent history of quarterbacks who have had sub 60% completion percentage and still had NFL success. Favre and Stafford seem to be the most cited examples of the anomalies. Therefore, Allen will have to be an “outlier” in order to have any measure of NFL. Allen is thought to end up being the next Jake Locker or Kyle Boller. I tend to believe that completion percentage does not necessarily equal accuracy (many other factors come into play). But that discussion has been had many times before and I was just interested in seeing what other quarterbacks may be out there that had a sub 60% completion percentage and also a decent amount of NFL success. I went back to quarterbacks drafted 1990 and forward. I know the game has evolved since then and completion percentages tend to be much higher today because of the types of schemes teams tend to run at the college level. But I still think it was worth looking into especially since Allen has not run a gimmicky college offense but rather he has operated in a pro style passing offense where he has been asked to make a higher percentage of difficult downfield throws (more like what quarterbacks were asked to do in the 1980’s and 1990’s). Below is a list of other quarterbacks who have had at least a decent career and also had a less than 60% completion percentage in college. I know “decent” is subjective but I was looking at quarterbacks who have at least stuck around a long time as high end backups or at least had brief periods of solid success as a starter. This is not a complete list but I think it covers most if not all of the quality starters drafted from 1990 to the Present. Brett Favre 52.4% Southern Miss. 1990 Mark Brunell 52.0% Washington 1993 Kerry Collins 56.3% Penn State 1995 Drew Bledsoe 54.3% Washington State 1993 Brian Griese 59.5% Michigan 1998 Jeff George 58.8% Illinois 1990 Jake Plummer 55.4% Arizona State 1996 Jeff Garcia 56.8% San Jose State 1994 Donovan McNabb 58.4% Syracuse 1999 Neil O’Donnell 58.8% Maryland 1990 Trent Dilfer 59.1% Fresno State 1994 Trent Green 55.8% Indiana 1993 Jake Delhomme 52.6% Louisiana 1997 Matt Hasselbeck 55.6% Boston College 1998 Mike Vick 56.0% Va Tech 2000 Tyrod Taylor 57.2% Va Tech 2011 Colin Kaepenick 58.2% 2011 Matthew Stafford 57.1% Georgia 2009 Josh McCown 51.2% SMU 2002 Carson Palmer 59.1% USC 2003 Kyle Orton 58.8% Purdue 2005 David Garrard 57.0% East Carolina 2002 Jay Cutler 57.2% Vanderbilt 2006 Matt Ryan 59.9% Boston College 2008 Brian Hoyer 55.8% Michigan State 2009 Derek Anderson 50.7% Oregon State 2005 Chad Henne 59.7% Michigan 2008 After looking back at the quarterbacks, I was surprised to find so many that were sub 60% since 1990. I was under the impression that there were only a handful since Brett Favre came out but there were at least 6-7 high quality starters in the group. Hopefully, this gives those stuck on Allen’s lower completion percentage a little more hope. And the positive thing for Allen is that he has some rare physical traits that can help him overcome the perceived inaccuracy issue. 2 14
CajunBillsBacker Posted May 7, 2018 Posted May 7, 2018 Now let’s put together a list of 62% and up QB’s that didn’t amount to anything. I bet that list is even longer. 6 5
Steve Billieve Posted May 7, 2018 Posted May 7, 2018 Hey, no fair trying to count silent evidence. How else are we going to manufacture points to make. 1 1
BadLandsMeanie Posted May 7, 2018 Posted May 7, 2018 11 minutes ago, racketmaster said: When discussing Josh Allen, inevitably his career college completion percentage (56.2%) comes up in the conversation. Most analysts seem to be in agreement that there are very few examples in recent history of quarterbacks who have had sub 60% completion percentage and still had NFL success. Favre and Stafford seem to be the most cited examples of the anomalies. Therefore, Allen will have to be an “outlier” in order to have any measure of NFL. Allen is thought to end up being the next Jake Locker or Kyle Boller. I tend to believe that completion percentage does not necessarily equal accuracy (many other factors come into play). But that discussion has been had many times before and I was just interested in seeing what other quarterbacks may be out there that had a sub 60% completion percentage and also a decent amount of NFL success. I went back to quarterbacks drafted 1990 and forward. I know the game has evolved since then and completion percentages tend to be much higher today because of the types of schemes teams tend to run at the college level. But I still think it was worth looking into especially since Allen has not run a gimmicky college offense but rather he has operated in a pro style passing offense where he has been asked to make a higher percentage of difficult downfield throws (more like what quarterbacks were asked to do in the 1980’s and 1990’s). Below is a list of other quarterbacks who have had at least a decent career and also had a less than 60% completion percentage in college. I know “decent” is subjective but I was looking at quarterbacks who have at least stuck around a long time as high end backups or at least had brief periods of solid success as a starter. This is not a complete list but I think it covers most if not all of the quality starters drafted from 1990 to the Present. Brett Favre 52.4% Southern Miss. 1990 Mark Brunell 52.0% Washington 1993 Kerry Collins 56.3% Penn State 1995 Drew Bledsoe 54.3% Washington State 1993 Brian Griese 59.5% Michigan 1998 Jeff George 58.8% Illinois 1990 Jake Plummer 55.4% Arizona State 1996 Jeff Garcia 56.8% San Jose State 1994 Donovan McNabb 58.4% Syracuse 1999 Neil O’Donnell 58.8% Maryland 1990 Trent Dilfer 59.1% Fresno State 1994 Trent Green 55.8% Indiana 1993 Jake Delhomme 52.6% Louisiana 1997 Matt Hasselbeck 55.6% Boston College 1998 Mike Vick 56.0% Va Tech 2000 Tyrod Taylor 57.2% Va Tech 2011 Colin Kaepenick 58.2% 2011 Matthew Stafford 57.1% Georgia 2009 Josh McCown 51.2% SMU 2002 Carson Palmer 59.1% USC 2003 Kyle Orton 58.8% Purdue 2005 David Garrard 57.0% East Carolina 2002 Jay Cutler 57.2% Vanderbilt 2006 Matt Ryan 59.9% Boston College 2008 Brian Hoyer 55.8% Michigan State 2009 Derek Anderson 50.7% Oregon State 2005 Chad Henne 59.7% Michigan 2008 After looking back at the quarterbacks, I was surprised to find so many that were sub 60% since 1990. I was under the impression that there were only a handful since Brett Favre came out but there were at least 6-7 high quality starters in the group. Hopefully, this gives those stuck on Allen’s lower completion percentage a little more hope. And the positive thing for Allen is that he has some rare physical traits that can help him overcome the perceived inaccuracy issue. Wow I expected this would be a troll post I would open only to find no names listed. Thanks for doing all of that work! 2
White Linen Posted May 7, 2018 Posted May 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, CajunBillsBacker said: Now let’s put together a list of 62% and up QB’s that didn’t amount to anything. I bet that list is even longer. Yep
racketmaster Posted May 7, 2018 Author Posted May 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, CajunBillsBacker said: Now let’s put together a list of 62% and up QB’s that didn’t amount to anything. I bet that list is even longer. This is probably true although I have not actually looked through the stats to confirm it. But people don't go around saying quarterback X is going to fail because he has a higher than 62% completion percentage. But people have frequently pointed to Allen's completion % as the factor that will lead to his failure as a prospect.
Juice_32 Posted May 7, 2018 Posted May 7, 2018 Stafford jumps out to me. I think he and Allen are similar in a lot of ways. Allen is better on the move probably. If JA ends up having a Stafford-like career I'd be happy. 4
racketmaster Posted May 7, 2018 Author Posted May 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Juice_32 said: Stafford jumps out to me. I think he and Allen are similar in a lot of ways. Allen is better on the move probably. If JA ends up having a Stafford-like career I'd be happy. I agree. Both have rocket arms and have some good mobility. If you look at Stafford's NFL career, he was mostly a 60% passer during his first 5 years. The past 3 years he has been a 65% passer. For those who believe completion percentage equals accuracy, then his career shows that accuracy can be improved. 4
Seanbillsfan2206 Posted May 7, 2018 Posted May 7, 2018 23 minutes ago, racketmaster said: Brett Favre 52.4% Southern Miss. 1990 Mark Brunell 52.0% Washington 1993 Kerry Collins 56.3% Penn State 1995 Drew Bledsoe 54.3% Washington State 1993 Brian Griese 59.5% Michigan 1998 Jeff George 58.8% Illinois 1990 Jake Plummer 55.4% Arizona State 1996 Jeff Garcia 56.8% San Jose State 1994 Donovan McNabb 58.4% Syracuse 1999 Neil O’Donnell 58.8% Maryland 1990 Trent Dilfer 59.1% Fresno State 1994 Trent Green 55.8% Indiana 1993 Jake Delhomme 52.6% Louisiana 1997 Matt Hasselbeck 55.6% Boston College 1998 Mike Vick 56.0% Va Tech 2000 Tyrod Taylor 57.2% Va Tech 2011 Colin Kaepenick 58.2% 2011 Matthew Stafford 57.1% Georgia 2009 Josh McCown 51.2% SMU 2002 Carson Palmer 59.1% USC 2003 Kyle Orton 58.8% Purdue 2005 David Garrard 57.0% East Carolina 2002 Jay Cutler 57.2% Vanderbilt 2006 Matt Ryan 59.9% Boston College 2008 Brian Hoyer 55.8% Michigan State 2009 Derek Anderson 50.7% Oregon State 2005 Chad Henne 59.7% Michigan 2008 You forgot to add the greatest QB in Buffalo Bills history to this list..... 1
Magnum Force Posted May 7, 2018 Posted May 7, 2018 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Seanbillsfan2206 said: You forgot to add the greatest QB in Buffalo Bills history to this list..... I thought the same thing but it said from 1990 to the present. Edited May 7, 2018 by Magnum Force
Buffalo716 Posted May 7, 2018 Posted May 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, racketmaster said: I agree. Both have rocket arms and have some good mobility. If you look at Stafford's NFL career, he was mostly a 60% passer during his first 5 years. The past 3 years he has been a 65% passer. For those who believe completion percentage equals accuracy, then his career shows that accuracy can be improved. I know high completion % doesn’t always equal great accuracy but there is some correlation sometimes Matt Stafford is a guy who had lower completion % in college but always threw a good ball. He didn’t magically become accurate, he already was and The stats finally translated Josh Allen isn’t the most accurate QB I have ever seen but he does throw some very good balls. His deep ball and mid range game are both very good
LeGOATski Posted May 7, 2018 Posted May 7, 2018 The major knock on Allen is accuracy. Completion percentage is only one indicator of that. We're going to be doing this until at least next year, aren't we.
racketmaster Posted May 7, 2018 Author Posted May 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Buffalo716 said: I know high completion % doesn’t always equal great accuracy but there is some correlation sometimes Matt Stafford is a guy who had lower completion % in college but always threw a good ball. He didn’t magically become accurate, he already was and The stats finally translated Josh Allen isn’t the most accurate QB I have ever seen but he does throw some very good balls. His deep ball and mid range game are both very good I really like his accuracy on intermediate throws. His wrs rarely had much separation and he frequently fit the ball into tight windows even while on the move. Allen's accuracy seemed to be off on the "easier" throws such as a bubble screen or rb checkdown in the flat.
fansince88 Posted May 7, 2018 Posted May 7, 2018 Great post. Thanks for sharing and putting all the work into this! 1
QCity Posted May 7, 2018 Posted May 7, 2018 People have used 60% solely because it's a round number. 1
racketmaster Posted May 7, 2018 Author Posted May 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, LeGOATski said: The major knock on Allen is accuracy. Completion percentage is only one indicator of that. We're going to be doing this until at least next year, aren't we. I agree that Allen's accuracy appears to be the biggest question that analysts and fans have about him as a prospect. Watching Allen play, I am less concerned about his accuracy and more concerned about his mechanics and footwork. He seems to miss more than he should on shorter passer, especially if he has to reset his feet. When Allen has his feet under him he is very accurate, especially on intermediate throws. Allen can put balls 30-40 yards down the field into a tight window while he is on the run. So I think he has a natural ability to be accurate with the football. I am hopeful that he can make corrections to his mechanics on the shorter passes, even if it is just modest improvement.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted May 7, 2018 Posted May 7, 2018 31 minutes ago, racketmaster said: When discussing Josh Allen, inevitably his career college completion percentage (56.2%) comes up in the conversation. Most analysts seem to be in agreement that there are very few examples in recent history of quarterbacks who have had sub 60% completion percentage and still had NFL success. Favre and Stafford seem to be the most cited examples of the anomalies. Therefore, Allen will have to be an “outlier” in order to have any measure of NFL. Allen is thought to end up being the next Jake Locker or Kyle Boller. I tend to believe that completion percentage does not necessarily equal accuracy (many other factors come into play). But that discussion has been had many times before and I was just interested in seeing what other quarterbacks may be out there that had a sub 60% completion percentage and also a decent amount of NFL success. I went back to quarterbacks drafted 1990 and forward. I know the game has evolved since then and completion percentages tend to be much higher today because of the types of schemes teams tend to run at the college level. But I still think it was worth looking into especially since Allen has not run a gimmicky college offense but rather he has operated in a pro style passing offense where he has been asked to make a higher percentage of difficult downfield throws (more like what quarterbacks were asked to do in the 1980’s and 1990’s). Below is a list of other quarterbacks who have had at least a decent career and also had a less than 60% completion percentage in college. I know “decent” is subjective but I was looking at quarterbacks who have at least stuck around a long time as high end backups or at least had brief periods of solid success as a starter. This is not a complete list but I think it covers most if not all of the quality starters drafted from 1990 to the Present. Brett Favre 52.4% Southern Miss. 1990 Mark Brunell 52.0% Washington 1993 Kerry Collins 56.3% Penn State 1995 Drew Bledsoe 54.3% Washington State 1993 Brian Griese 59.5% Michigan 1998 Jeff George 58.8% Illinois 1990 Jake Plummer 55.4% Arizona State 1996 Jeff Garcia 56.8% San Jose State 1994 Donovan McNabb 58.4% Syracuse 1999 Neil O’Donnell 58.8% Maryland 1990 Trent Dilfer 59.1% Fresno State 1994 Trent Green 55.8% Indiana 1993 Jake Delhomme 52.6% Louisiana 1997 Matt Hasselbeck 55.6% Boston College 1998 Mike Vick 56.0% Va Tech 2000 Tyrod Taylor 57.2% Va Tech 2011 Colin Kaepenick 58.2% 2011 Matthew Stafford 57.1% Georgia 2009 Josh McCown 51.2% SMU 2002 Carson Palmer 59.1% USC 2003 Kyle Orton 58.8% Purdue 2005 David Garrard 57.0% East Carolina 2002 Jay Cutler 57.2% Vanderbilt 2006 Matt Ryan 59.9% Boston College 2008 Brian Hoyer 55.8% Michigan State 2009 Derek Anderson 50.7% Oregon State 2005 Chad Henne 59.7% Michigan 2008 After looking back at the quarterbacks, I was surprised to find so many that were sub 60% since 1990. I was under the impression that there were only a handful since Brett Favre came out but there were at least 6-7 high quality starters in the group. Hopefully, this gives those stuck on Allen’s lower completion percentage a little more hope. And the positive thing for Allen is that he has some rare physical traits that can help him overcome the perceived inaccuracy issue. Sterling work, Thank you! 1
racketmaster Posted May 7, 2018 Author Posted May 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, QCity said: People have used 60% solely because it's a round number. I agree, there really is no magic number. I thought this during the draft process when Allen was being ridiculed for his 56%. I was looking at the praise being thrown at Josh Rosen and thinking he is at 60%. There is a significant difference in those numbers but was it that much of a difference to bash one prospect (Allen) and praise another (Rosen) for his mechanics and accuracy. 1
Chosenone Posted May 7, 2018 Posted May 7, 2018 (edited) Here are Russell Wilson's college stats! 54%, 59% and 58% his 3 yrs at NC State. 2008 NC State 150 275 1,955 17 1 54.5 133.9 116 394 3.4 4 2009 NC State 224 378 3,027 31 11 59.3 147.8 103 260 2.5 4 2010 NC State 308 527 3,563 28 14 58.4 127.5 143 435 3.0 9 2011 Wisconsin 225 309 3,175 33 4 72.8 191.8 79 338 4.3 6 Edited May 7, 2018 by Chosenone 1
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