Do we have the worst QB situation in the league?

[ghostwriter]

Just now, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Right, which is why I specifically said previously that we have the least proven, most inexperienced QB room in the league. That doesn't necessarily mean worst, as they have something to prove still, but I think it's what's giving fans that uneasy feeling.

My problem is that fans are unreasonably worried and uneasy, I think the 7th overall pick should warrant more optimism than what we're seeing. Had we drafted Rosen this would be a non-issue, just be honest. Fans wanted Rosen, they didn't get their guy and they're upset, it's simple.

 

Why are people so optimistic about Edmunds and not Allen? You don't see fans expressing concern over MLB anymore.

[ALF]

Bengals WR AJ Green tells Bills fans AJ McCarron will 'give you everything he's got'

 

“Oh for A.J. (McCarron), I know A.J. very well. You’re going to get a guy who’s going to compete his butt off,” Green said. “That’s one thing, that’s a guy I’ve been around for a while, he competes at everything he does, a guy that’s a natural leader, he’s going to give you everything he’s got when he out’s out there.”

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2018/05/06/buffalo-bills-aj-mccarron-aj-green/

 

The Browns reportedly appealed to the league to allow the deal, which would have sent 2018 second- and third-round picks to the Bengals, to go through but were denied.  (for AJ McCarron)

 

Browns Coach Hue Jackson worked with McCarron when he was the Bengals’ offensive coordinator, so he may well have considered the former fifth-round draft pick a better fit for his offense.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2017/10/31/browns-trade-for-aj-mccarron-reportedly-fails-because-team-too-busy-celebrating-it/?utm_term=.e7d00193155f

Edited May 7, 2018 by ALF

[BuffaloHokie13]

Just now, NewDayBills said:

My problem is that fans are unreasonably worried and uneasy, I think the 7th overall pick should warrant more optimism than what we're seeing. Had we drafted Rosen this would be a non-issue, just be honest. Fans wanted Rosen, they didn't get their guy and they're upset, it's simple.

 

Why are people so optimistic about Edmunds and not Allen? You don't see fans expressing concern over MLB anymore.

Being honest, yes Rosen would have eased tensions because he was touted as the most ready to play day 1 and the furthest along as a pocket passer. Throughout the process Allen was touted as a project with the biggest boom or bust potential. That's not a bad thing depending on the rest of your QB room. Our QB room, as a whole, has thrown 226 NFL passes for 9 TDs and 9 INTs in 6 combined starts plus some mop up duty.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, Sky Diver said:

 

Average of 208.8 which isn't accurate either since some were full games.

 

The number I stated was Games he started.  192, 200, 160, 212.  All full games.  What is the average of those 4 numbers? Is it 191 or isn't it?

If you average those 4 numbers and get 208.8, you learned a different arithmetic than is taught in any school I attended.

 

If someone says "Started a number of games, in which he averaged 191 ypg", you can argue "I think we should include all his games" or some such.

In which case his average that year would be ~122 ypg.  But it looks pretty foolish to tell someone they're incorrect if they're, you know, NOT, given the boundary conditions they clearly state.

 

Whether it's 122, 191, or 209, the point stands that McCarron's demonstrated NFL passing productivity as a starter to date is on a par with Tyrod's average in games he started, which is 201 ypg.  Which folks here have repeatedly informed all is entirely woeful and inadequate.

 

Now maybe McCarron has taken a step and/or will do better throwing to Benjamin and Zay Jones and Clay and whoever than he did throwing to AJ Green, Sanu, and Eifert.

We can all hope so as fans, if he starts.  But until it happens, it's just opinion and potential, it's not demonstrated NFL ability.

 

Just now, Sky Diver said:

What does Garapplolo have to do with anything?

 

You were arguing that the trades for McCarron and for Taylor reflect their perceived skill level by the team, rather than many factors: the point in the season (near trade deadline vs. start of new NFL year), the negotiating skills of both parties, etcetera.

 

If trades reflect a player's actual skill level accurately, then Garappolo is relevant since clearly the rumored 2nd and 3rd offered by the Browns mid-season just before the trade deadline is greater than the 2nd round pick SF gave up for Jimmy, therefore McCarron must be > Garappolo.  Doesn't work that way, and he isn't.

 

Just now, Sky Diver said:

Correct, I don't think we have any basis for discussion. The Browns clearly placed a high value on McCarron and the NFL clearly placed a high value on Allen. My observation of the two QBs is in alignment. Do you think NFL teams just flip a coin when it comes to signing and drafting players?

 

I don't think that word "clearly" means what you think it means.  It isn't a synonym for "in Sky Diver's worldview" or "In Sky Diver's opinion"

 

Reductio ad absurdum.  There is a lot of space between "coin flip", "inferring a player's NFL skill level from an offered trade or draft position", and what I'm arguing - which is looking at demonstrated NFL abilities, where Taylor so far >= McCarron. 

 

It's fair to be all dewy over a player's potential.  I recognize potential, but I'm personally, where data is available, going with data until new data supercedes.

Different strokes for different folks.

 

Just now, Sky Diver said:

I'll trust the process with Allen and McCarron until proved otherwise.

 

That's fine

[ghostwriter]

8 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Being honest, yes Rosen would have eased tensions because he was touted as the most ready to play day 1 and the furthest along as a pocket passer. Throughout the process Allen was touted as a project with the biggest boom or bust potential. That's not a bad thing depending on the rest of your QB room. Our QB room, as a whole, has thrown 226 NFL passes for 9 TDs and 9 INTs in 6 combined starts plus some mop up duty.

I agree on the boom or bust aspect, I just disagree with how people automatically assume the bottom. We could very well have the best QB in the draft, that's very possible.

Edited May 7, 2018 by NewDayBills

[Matt_In_NH]

Maybe most inexperienced but I would take the Bills QB's over the Titans, Bears, Jaguars, Broncos, Cardinals.  Maybe Browns.

 

That can change a lot once bullets fly

[ALF]

The QB situation will progress if the OL can run block like it did for Kromer , to take some pressure off the passing game.

 

If they pass block scheme like against the Chargers , no QB could succeed.  I would like to keep a OL man as a blocking TE until they can pass protect.

 

The last thing I want to see is AJ get injured early in the season.

[BuffaloHokie13]

12 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

The number I stated was Games he started.  192, 200, 160, 212.  All full games.  What is the average of those 4 numbers? Is it 191 or isn't it?

If you average those 4 numbers and get 208.8, you learned a different arithmetic than is taught in any school I attended.

 

If someone says "Started a number of games, in which he averaged 191 ypg", you can argue "I think we should include all his games" or some such.

In which case his average that year would be ~122 ypg.  But it looks pretty foolish to tell someone they're incorrect if they're, you know, NOT, given the boundary conditions they clearly state.

 

Whether it's 122, 191, or 209, the point stands that McCarron's demonstrated NFL passing productivity as a starter to date is on a par with Tyrod's average in games he started, which is 201 ypg.  Which folks here have repeatedly informed all is entirely woeful and inadequate.

 

Now maybe McCarron has taken a step and/or will do better throwing to Benjamin and Zay Jones and Clay and whoever than he did throwing to AJ Green, Sanu, and Eifert.

We can all hope so as fans, if he starts.  But until it happens, it's just opinion and potential, it's not demonstrated NFL ability.

I looked at the 2015 numbers real quick. I also assumed McCarron started the week 13 game, just for easier math.

 

2015 Andy Dalton:
12 Games, 66.1% Completions, 8.38 YPA, 266 YPG, 6.56% TD%, 1.57% INT%

 

2015 AJ McCarron:

5 Games, 63.5% Completions, 6.69 YPA, 209 YPG, 4.49% TD%, 1.92% INT%

 

Hoping for even Dalton-like production out of McCarron is still a stretch, imo.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

17 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

As another poster said, "uncertain" is a better descriptor than "worst" in this case. I'd certainly rather have the unknown in Allen than continuing to build my team around Ryan Tannehill, Andy Dalton, or Blake Bortles for example.

 

Agreed.  As I put it elsewhere, there's a difference between demonstrated NFL ability vs potential.  I can see both views: we have among the lowest demonstrated NFL abilities in our QB room at this point, but we have high potential.  I would rather be where we are (stocked with high potential) than where Miami, Cinncinnati, or Jacksonville are, going forward with starters who so far are "meh".

 

Or as a popular business book says, "sometimes Good is the Enemy of Great".  The meaning is if you have something that performs acceptably, it's harder to make changes that have the potential to perform better, at the not-insignificant risk of performing worse. 

 

I'm glad the Bills took the risk to be great, and I hope our QB become great, but the risk of being worse is the very real flip side.

 

17 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

And regarding the comparison to Cleveland, I personally prefer Allen over Mayfield, but obviously Cleveland prefers Baker and I imagine they probably prefer Tyrod over McCarron too. They were interested in acquiring McCarron a while ago, but if they felt this offseason that McCarron was better than Tyrod, it wouldn't have made any sense to trade a high 3rd round pick for the right to pay Tyrod $16 million or whatever it is when they could have simply paid McCarron $5 million without surrendering a pick.

 

[Soda Popinski]

I don't think so.   One of the most inexperienced situations in the NFL but McCarron has been in the league a while, and Peterman has started multiple games.    Miami has no one behind Tannehill, who may or may not be fully healed.   The Jaguars have no one behind Bortles, who isn't spectacular in any kind of way.   Mahomes has started one game.  And IMO he didn't do enough to warrant shipping Alex Smith off, who was a proven QB.   

 

I don't see any of those situations being much better if any better than Buffalo.   

[Hapless Bills Fan]

37 minutes ago, NewDayBills said:

I agree on the boom or bust aspect, I just disagree with how people automatically assume the bottom. We could very well have the best QB in the draft, that's very possible.

 

I think it comes back to what I said in one post:

 

People using different criteria to define "worst"

 

Some people are looking at demonstrated NFL performance, which doesn't look so good for us as Hokie said since we don't have much, and what we have is eh.

 

Other people are looking at potential abilities, which are high.

 

[ghostwriter]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think it comes back to what I said in one post:

 

People using different criteria to define "worst"

 

Some people are looking at demonstrated NFL performance, which doesn't look so good for us as Hokie said since we don't have much, and what we have is eh.

 

Other people are looking at potential abilities, which are high.

 

I think if Darnold, Mayfield or Rosen were the QB, you wouldn't see people throwing such a stink, I don't think experience has anything to do with it.

 

It doesn't matter though, the second Allen plays lights out, all the negativity and division go away.

[ddaryl]

we are the biggest unkown at this point. No doubt about that

[Sky Diver]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The number I stated was Games he started.  192, 200, 160, 212.  All full games.  What is the average of those 4 numbers? Is it 191 or isn't it?

If you average those 4 numbers and get 208.8, you learned a different arithmetic than is taught in any school I attended.

 

If someone says "Started a number of games, in which he averaged 191 ypg", you can argue "I think we should include all his games" or some such.

In which case his average that year would be ~122 ypg.  But it looks pretty foolish to tell someone they're incorrect if they're, you know, NOT, given the boundary conditions they clearly state.

 

Whether it's 122, 191, or 209, the point stands that McCarron's demonstrated NFL passing productivity as a starter to date is on a par with Tyrod's average in games he started, which is 201 ypg.  Which folks here have repeatedly informed all is entirely woeful and inadequate.

 

Now maybe McCarron has taken a step and/or will do better throwing to Benjamin and Zay Jones and Clay and whoever than he did throwing to AJ Green, Sanu, and Eifert.

We can all hope so as fans, if he starts.  But until it happens, it's just opinion and potential, it's not demonstrated NFL ability.

 

 

You were arguing that the trades for McCarron and for Taylor reflect their perceived skill level by the team, rather than many factors: the point in the season (near trade deadline vs. start of new NFL year), the negotiating skills of both parties, etcetera.

 

If trades reflect a player's actual skill level accurately, then Garappolo is relevant since clearly the rumored 2nd and 3rd offered by the Browns mid-season just before the trade deadline is greater than the 2nd round pick SF gave up for Jimmy, therefore McCarron must be > Garappolo.  Doesn't work that way, and he isn't.

 

 

I don't think that word "clearly" means what you think it means.  It isn't a synonym for "in Sky Diver's worldview" or "In Sky Diver's opinion"

 

Reductio ad absurdum.  There is a lot of space between "coin flip", "inferring a player's NFL skill level from an offered trade or draft position", and what I'm arguing - which is looking at demonstrated NFL abilities, where Taylor so far >= McCarron. 

 

It's fair to be all dewy over a player's potential.  I recognize potential, but I'm personally, where data is available, going with data until new data supercedes.

Different strokes for different folks.

 

 

That's fine

 

Cleveland offered the Bengals a 2nd and a 3rd for a McCarron. The Bils signed him to a FA contract. The Bills drafted Allen 7 and the 3rd QB overall. All this is fact.

 

If your analytics and film study indicates that the two players are likely busts, that's fine, but the Bills and Browns feel differently about McCarron and the Bills feel differently about Allen.

 

Maybe you know something that the Browns and Bills don't.

 

 

 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 hours ago, theAteam said:

Giants kind of screwed themselves. Eli ain't getting any younger.

 

They are banking on "overhaul the engine and he'll run for another 3 years" by which time they hope either Webb, Lauletta, or the guy they draft next year pulls a Cousins.

They may be wrong, but they're the ones who had the play calls and all-22 to power-scrutinize.

[Soda Popinski]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

They are banking on "overhaul the engine and he'll run for another 3 years" by which time they hope either Webb, Lauletta, or the guy they draft next year pulls a Cousins.

They may be wrong, but they're the ones who had the play calls and all-22 to power-scrutinize.

Well, the Patriots have been drafting Brady's replacement for years now and he just keeps playing. I think at most you want your developmental QB to sit a year, so i think if they took Rosen/Darnold/Allen they're looking at a minimum of 2 years behind Eli, doesn't really help them win now.    I think they will draft one next year, and he'll sit a year.    

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

 

Cleveland offered the Bengals a 2nd and a 3rd for a McCarron. The Bils signed him to a FA contract. The Bills drafted Allen 7 and the 3rd QB overall. All this is fact.

 

If your analytics and film study indicates that the two players are likely busts, that's fine, but the Bills and Browns feel differently about McCarron and the Bills feel differently about Allen.

 

Maybe you know something that the Browns and Bills don't.

 

"Busts" are another total straw man brought in by you here.  I am not saying either of these guys are "busts", nor have I seen that opinion offered in this thread.

"Fledgling birds haven't demonstrated actual flying ability yet" "Well, if your analytics and film study indicate house finches are busts..."  Non sequitor.  Makes no sense.

 

I'm out.  It's unsatisfying to interact with someone who can't or won't acknowledge any points made accurately and respond to them. 

[Hebert19]

I prefer to think we have one with the most potential. 

[BarleyNY]

18 hours ago, BigDingus said:

Yeah, probably.

And that's ok too for now. I'm not going to pretend I like the Allen pick, but I hope he does well and am excited to see if he can take his game to the next level.

But realistically, yes, we have 3 guys with 6 total starts between them.

1. Rookie who's a project by any means, 0 starts

2. 5th Round Pick in his 2nd year, only 2 starts (neither of which he finished)

3. Backup for 3 years, started 4 games his rookie season & 0 since.

And no veteran QB to anchor and to mentor the unit. So yeah, probably the "worst" in terms of experience and on-field production.

 

I agree with this entire post. Well said. 

 

17 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

 

No we dont. 

 

Cle, Chi, Indy (Luck throwing yet?), Jax, MIA, Hou (How will Watson respond to Knee), BAL

 

 Cle:  So sorry. I take Tyrod over McCarron and Mayfield over Allen every single time. 

 

Chi: Trubisky is a better prospect than Allen. Sorry. 

 

indy: It all depends on Luck’s health. If healthy, there’s no contest. Wait and see. 

 

Jax:  Bortles. Wow.  It would depend on what Allen becomes. Bortles is serviceable. No QB on the Bills has proven to be so yet. 

 

Mia:  Ditto

 

Hou:  Ditto except Watson showed to be better than serviceable before being injured. 

 

Bal:  Seriously?  Flacco has fallen off considerably since he was Super Bowl MVP.  But he was, you know, Super Bowl MVP - and he’s still better than anyone on the Bills roster has shown to be.

 

i hope the Bills QB roster far exceeds my expectations - and I’ll be rooting for them all - but take the rose colored glasses off for just a sec. 

[Mountain Man]

No. The Broncos do. They traded away a solid starter in Siemian, and paid big money for a journeyman QB who has been garbage for all but 1 season in his career.