Combing through the negative Josh Allen Grades/Reviews

[reddogblitz]

5 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said:

So inaccurate...

 

What are you trying to say? Do you think he IS An accurate passet?

[TUBSTER]

There are plenty of QB's that don't turn out well because of accuracy, but that doesn't mean all of them do.  Here are some QB's that threw under 60% in their college career:

Brett Favre 52.4%

Matt Ryan 59.9%

Matthew Stafford 57.1%

Michael Vick 56%

Jim Kelly 55.6%

Joe Montana 52%

Dan Marino 57.6%

 

Josh Allen 56.2%

 

Also note that if Allen had completed 1 and 1/2 more passes per game this year he would have been at 62% instead of 56%

 

[Billsflyer12]

5 minutes ago, TUBSTER said:

There are plenty of QB's that don't turn out well because of accuracy, but that doesn't mean all of them do.  Here are some QB's that threw under 60% in their college career:

Brett Favre 52.4%

Matt Ryan 59.9%

Matthew Stafford 57.1%

Michael Vick 56%

Jim Kelly 55.6%

Joe Montana 52%

Dan Marino 57.6%

 

Josh Allen 56.2%

 

Also note that if Allen had completed 1 and 1/2 more passes per game this year he would have been at 62% instead of 56%

 

I assume that whenever someone brings up the stat that had he only 1 more catch per game his % would be 60, that we can also say if he also had 1 more incompletion per game his % would be 52, right?

[TUBSTER]

16 minutes ago, Billsflyer12 said:

I assume that whenever someone brings up the stat that had he only 1 more catch per game his % would be 60, that we can also say if he also had 1 more incompletion per game his % would be 52, right?

Yes, that does make sense.  Just trying to point out not every great QB threw 70% in college so he has a small chance at not sucking.

[Tyrod's friend]

59 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

 

1 completion a game is nothing, he could’ve easily been a 60% passer

 

its not far off 

 

 

Not pointing this at Buffalo716, but generally every one that is simply parroting what Allen has said about this "1 pass a game" bullsh!t.

The guy completed 156 passed as a senior. Increasing his completions by 11 (1 per game, presumably) suggests a 7% increase in his accuracy. If you think increasing, and maintaining an improvement by 7% is an incredibly difficult thing to do. I'm not talking here about changing environments - I'm talking about constant environments and making that move. 

It's just not. 

This is basically the "Crash Davis" argument you are making. The incremental move IS incredibly difficult - which is why (using the Bull Durham example) there are so few guys that can do it. 

You are making an absurd argument when you make it. It IS A BIG DEAL and it IS hard to do. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, Fadingpain said:

And if Tyrod Taylor could have consistently found open receivers and accurately delivered the ball to them, he'd still be a Buffalo Bill making $30 million a year.

 

But he can't and so he's not.  

WRT Tyrod you are correct.  

 

WRT Allen I think it’s a bit too early to make a definitive statement as to his NFL performance.   

 

Edited May 6, 2018 by ShadyBillsFan

[Buffalo716]

42 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

 

Not pointing this at Buffalo716, but generally every one that is simply parroting what Allen has said about this "1 pass a game" bullsh!t.

The guy completed 156 passed as a senior. Increasing his completions by 11 (1 per game, presumably) suggests a 7% increase in his accuracy. If you think increasing, and maintaining an improvement by 7% is an incredibly difficult thing to do. I'm not talking here about changing environments - I'm talking about constant environments and making that move. 

It's just not. 

This is basically the "Crash Davis" argument you are making. The incremental move IS incredibly difficult - which is why (using the Bull Durham example) there are so few guys that can do it. 

You are making an absurd argument when you make it. It IS A BIG DEAL and it IS hard to do. 

 

They have a bottom 10 line in college football and ran on 1st down and 2nd down mostly leaving Allen I’m 3rd in long like we did to TT a lot 

 

All I said was, and I believe I was the first to parrot it because i did watch every snap of the past season was that Allen wasn’t far off from being a +60 percent passer which is very respectable in that offense and behind that line

 

11 drops over 11 games or 1 completion a game is not huge

 

He projects well to the NFL because he has good experience and tape under center. He can complete 60% in the NFL

 

im not saying he will be some 65% guy but he can push the ball down the field and get to 60%

 

He is a risky pick but can pan out. His chances are good here I like them

Edited May 6, 2018 by Buffalo716

[Wayne Arnold]

59 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

What are you trying to say? Do you think he IS An accurate passet?

 

What gave it away? The examples of perfect precision passes?

[Tyrod's friend]

8 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

 

11 drops over 11 games or 1 completion a game is nothing.

IT IS NOT NOTHING. Increasing your productivity in any endeavor by nearly 10% and maintaining that performance level is F'ING HARD. People try to do it all the time and fail, and in particular in sports. The guy that moves from being a .250 hitter to being a .270 hitter? That happens a lot? No, not really. 

It's a bullsh!t claim and using 11 completions fails to take into consideration that he doesn't throw the ball much. More over, 11 drops? The guy benefited from among the best numbers on dropped balls among the big four.

You are making an idiotic argument here. Drop it or not, but I'm done with responding.

 

[Buffalo716]

37 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

IT IS NOT NOTHING. Increasing your productivity in any endeavor by nearly 10% and maintaining that performance level is F'ING HARD. People try to do it all the time and fail, and in particular in sports. The guy that moves from being a .250 hitter to being a .270 hitter? That happens a lot? No, not really. 

It's a bullsh!t claim and using 11 completions fails to take into consideration that he doesn't throw the ball much. More over, 11 drops? The guy benefited from among the best numbers on dropped balls among the big four.

You are making an idiotic argument here. Drop it or not, but I'm done with responding.

 

 

See ya. He still had a decent amount of dropped balls I can promise you. It’s not even an exact stat by the NCAA

 

as much as Lamar, no, but a bit more than 1 a game.

 

He had 2-3 in a few games

 

Hes the Bills QB and I’m going to back him. He was a consensus top 4 QB in The best QB draft in a while. Even if he was my #4 I still see all the positive things he can do as a QB

 

He is not Jamarcus or JP or EJ innacurate 

Edited May 6, 2018 by Buffalo716

[billsfan89]

You can get really down on a QB prospect if you want to and you can make a prospect seem way better than he is if you want to. Allen is a tantalizing QB prospect for various reasons but he is also a risky QB prospect for various reasons. Allen has all the physical tools you want in a QB. He is tall, built like a tank, and Allen has maybe the strongest arm in recent memory. On top of that Allen has the work ethic, intelligence, and by all accounts the leadership intangibles. 

 

But Allen has accuracy issues and smaller issues with footwork and reading a defense. But a lot of people have observed that a lot of Allen's accuracy numbers may have been deflated for various reasons and that Allen's bad footwork and reading of defenses are more a result of offensive line issues he had to play through in college. 

 

I didn't like the pick and I would have went with Rosen, but McBeane as a regime isn't afraid to take risks. They saw Allen as the higher potential player and they went with him. It wasn't the move I would have done but these coaches and scouts know these prospects and that was the call they made. They want the guy they think can be a star QB and were willing to take on the risk. 

[yungmack]

5 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

For God's sake, if Allen is so bad how is it he was in the group of 4 top QB prospects? Pick a side already!

Magical thinking. Because so many teams need a "franchise QB," the taking of any reasonably sentient QB in the first round therefore magical makes that QB a "franchise QB." In a sane world, he'd have been a late 2nd to a mid 3rd round pick, maybe later  considering his major shortcomings.

[HappyDays]

The correct answer is the one that isn't listed. His ability to handle pressure. That's arguably the biggest concern with most college QBs transitioning to the NFL. Part of the problem is Allen was under pressure way too often in college so it's hard to get a good read on how well he can handle it. But there is too much film where he leaves the pocket early, or panics under perceived pressure and rushes a throw for no reason. I don't think anyone can know for sure if that is fixable. He was able to get away with some of that stuff in college because he was so much bigger and more athletic than his small school competition, but in the NFL he'll have to be much better.

Edited May 6, 2018 by HappyDays

[BigDingus]

2 hours ago, Billsflyer12 said:

I assume that whenever someone brings up the stat that had he only 1 more catch per game his % would be 60, that we can also say if he also had 1 more incompletion per game his % would be 52, right?

 

I don't like that imaginary stuff anyway, because like you said, he could've just as easily had 1 more incompletion, 1 more interception, 1 more TD, 50 more yards, etc. 

And the 1 and a half more catches is entirely dependent on him not having thrown any extra passes too. If Allen had simply thrown and completed 1 more pass per game, his stats would be 58% completion percentage in 2017 and 57.6% in 2016.

 

Also, his offense wasn't an air raid spread offense, but he took the majority of his snaps out of shotgun (and most of his TD's came from shotgun too). He had the same coach the entire time he was there, and still regressed significantly his senior year in yards (by almost 50%) and TD's (by more than 50%). His INT's came down by more than 50% too, from 15 to 6, but it's still worrisome that he wasn't even 1st or 2nd All Mountain West, and his stock shot up because of looks and potential as we got closer to the draft.

[Buffalo716]

4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Right on on all points.  I think it was Badlands Meanie who went off to watch Allen game films and came back to say pretty much the same, something like "I can't tell if that guy's any good or not"  We just need to see.

 

I'm surprised by the Rosen and the Rudolph percentages.  I'll have to think about this, but they both (watching film but not taking notes on each play) gave me the "feel" they were under pressure more than they were.  I'll have to think about that.  Perhaps it reflects their relative lack of mobility?

 

Allen certainly was running for his life more than any other QB

 

Rosen manipulates the pocket well but can’t shrug off a defender or create in the pocket like Allen

 

So when he gets swallowed up in the pocket he’s mostly consumed by the pressure. Maybe that’s what you saw

 

As for Rudolph with his very low number that is definitely a by product of the spread

[Stanley Lombardi]

13 hours ago, Mickey said:

Even if you are pessimistic about Allen, what are you most concerned could lead to his success?

 

1. That winning games will count more than completion percentage.

2. That Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott might actually know more than I do.

3. That people will notice that after months of arguing that the Bills would never pick Allen, I just cant accept that I was embarrassingly wrong.

4. That being wrong about the Allen pick, I must spend hours working on a thinly disguised crusade against him in a futile attempt to rescue my credibility.

5. Nothing, I am 100% convinced that Allen won't succeed but as a Bills fan I do support him. No, really, I do. Believe me, I do. Totally.

 

Subtle as a sledgehammer.  My regards!

[Thurman#1]

9 hours ago, Billsflyer12 said:

Stats will never be able to tell you everything about what a player can do.  They can provide a lot of information, along with historical reference that paint a probability of success.  And in the case of Josh Allen, it would take a spectacular outlier performance — one that hasn’t happened this decade — to live up to the expectations of a top-10 pick.

 

Is is possible he could be the outlier from the past decade of data, YES.  Do I hope he is the outlier, YES.  Was Tom Brady an outlier, YES. But the overall data picture tells us historically his probilility of success is really small.

 

 

The overall data picture tells us very little or nothing. There just isn't a large enough sample of guys from the last 15 years or so who had completion percentages below 60% and yet were picked in the top ten. 

 

Three guys? Stafford, Ryan and Allen? Are there any more?

 

What this tells you is that he is an outlier for being picked in the top ten. Guys with completion percentages as low as that, and there are probably hundreds of them over the last 15 years, are generally not considered pro prospects. Yet Allen was, and a top ten guy besides. Why? Because stats don't tell the whole story. Because when the professional evaluators looked at his game they saw some bad signs and a lot of good ones too, and the good outweighed the bad.

Edited May 7, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Wayne Arnold]

6 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

Also, his offense wasn't an air raid spread offense, but he took the majority of his snaps out of shotgun (and most of his TD's came from shotgun too). He had the same coach the entire time he was there, and still regressed significantly his senior year in yards (by almost 50%) and TD's (by more than 50%). His INT's came down by more than 50% too, from 15 to 6, but it's still worrisome that he wasn't even 1st or 2nd All Mountain West, and his stock shot up because of looks and potential as we got closer to the draft.

 

Allen improved greatly as a senior from a mental standpoint. Was much, much less of a gunslinger than he was in 2016. Unfortunately, his teammates got worse. It took until the second half of the season for the freshmen to reach the point where they weren't a massive hindrance.

 

Also unfortunately, Allen injured his shoulder at exactly the wrong time - during the 10th game when the offense was starting to get hot. He had to miss the last two regular season games - and you could tell how valuable he was to the offense simply through those two games: 7 points against Fresno State, and a loss to the worst team in college football.

 

All-conference picks are meaningless.

[Magox]

Is Allen truly a classic boom or bust sort of prospect?  That's the word you hear from some of the pundits and the people who like to repeat what they hear.  

Why is it that he has been labeled as such from some quarters?

 

The supposed reasons are:

 

A) He has a low completion percentage, the often quoted 56% rate.  The narrative that has been written is that if you have a low completion percentage throughout your college career the odds show that QB's tend to have a uphill mountain to overcome and that this usually is indicative of a QB not having a successful NFL career.

 

B) He is another QB in the mold of others who were known to have big arms with little accuracy who went on to be busts, therefore Allen fits that mold.

 

C) He has terrible footwork and most QB's who have terrible footwork usually are not able to correct that problem as they get into the NFL.

 

Those are the most-often cited narratives that you hear about Allen and why he is a classic boom or bust sort of prospect.

 

I wholeheartedly disagree.

 

A) Looking at his completion percentage as virtually a be - all - and - end -all metric is silly and entirely without context.   Look at EJ Manuel,  I believe he had a 65% completion average his last year in college and people pointed to that as proof that he was not inaccurate.  Yet when you watched the film on him the passes were primarily short passes and usually they weren't well placed.  Watching the tape on Allen and you'll see that he isn't nearly as inaccurate as his reputation among pundits.  When you look back at all his throws he must have either have been forced out of the pocket or hurried on his throws on at least 40% of his passes.  Not to mention that didn't have a good group of WR's that could separate. 

 

B) The big one that comes to mind is J. Russell, huge arm that ended up being a bust.  He was mainly a bust because he simply didn't have the intestinal fortitude and desire to succeed.  Not to mention that aside from his big arm and some running ability there wasn't that much to him.  This is simply not the case with Allen.  The guy is a leader and has the desire to improve and persevere. 

 

C) Yeah, his footwork had issues because he was running for his life extending plays.  Don't get me wrong, as another poster pointed out his inaccurate short passes largely also had to do with him not resetting his feet properly when he looked to check down.  I do believe that he will get that corrected and we have begun to see evidence of that in the Senior bowl.

 

I happen to think he has a much higher floor then what we hear repeated over and over.  To be honest, I think his floor is much closer to where Bortles is than a J. Russell.  I also happen to believe there is a better than 50/50 chance that he ends up being a better QB in this league than Flacco.  And I think there is a legitimate possibility that he could end up being similar in the mold of a Roethlisberger.    I believe that because my view is that he has elite escape capability to extend plays and the arm and accuracy to punish teams down the field and when you combine that with his size/strength and athletic ability that is a deadly trifecta to possess.   

 

I think he'll be a decent in the pocket passer, but where he'll make a name for himself will be outside of the tackles similar to that of a Rodgers or Roethlisberger.

 

The Bills just need to ease him along with a heavy dose of the run, RPO and play action passes and cut the field in half for him.    Get him a good line and another WR and I think we'll see that we have found our franchise QB.

Edited May 7, 2018 by Magox

[eball]

5 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

The Bills just need to ease him along with a heavy dose of the run, RPO and play action passes and cut the field in half for him.    Get him a good line and another QB and I think we'll see that we have found our franchise QB.

 

Hmm...a 2-QB system.  Interesting take. 

 

I agree with you, by the way, that Allen's "floor" is not nearly what some are making it out to be.

 

The ceiling is the roof.

 

Edited May 7, 2018 by eball