Combing through the negative Josh Allen Grades/Reviews

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

Now throw in that our already shaky O-line lost its 3 best players, our WR corp is only Kelving Benjamin, he's 0-3 in games against Power 5 Conference teams, has thrown for 1 TD compared to 9 interceptions in those games, regressed significantly last season compared to the year before (threw for half the total yards and less than half the TD's), had just as many games throwing for 0 TD's as he did throwing for 2 or more last year (3 total for both), and that he's now expected to somehow get SIGNIFICANTLY better playing against far more difficult competition...I'm just not sure a "once in a generation arm" is going to be enough...

 

 

The o-line and Benjamin stuff is about next year. And frankly, the first year performance of a rookie QB is not worth worrying about. Even the ones who turn out to be good are often bad the first year. And Allen may well spend that first year on the bench.

 

As for his performance this year vs. last year there are some concerns there. But comparing yards totals and TD totals is absolutely flat-out ridiculous. He threw 373 passes in 2016 and 270 in 2017. Of course he threw for much less yards and TDs. He did have some regression but using qualitative rather than quantitative stats here shows nothing. As for the quantitative problems, it's been reported very widely that he lost all of his best players this year, and that caused a lot of problems. Believe that or not, but that's most of the reason.

 

That and what Peter King reported that "as one official from a quarterback-needy team told me, how difficult it was to scout him because he had so many free rushers coming at him consistently." 41% of the plays he was under pressure, far far more than any of the other QB prospects had. 

 

Allen 41%

Jackson 36%

Darnold 31%

Rosen 29%

Mayfield 28%

Rudolph 23%

 

That would erode anyone's stats.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/04/18/josh-allen-draft-cleveland-browns-mmqb-peter-king

 

Not that I am convinced about the guy. I'm hopeful but very unconvinced. He just needs to show us, it's that simple.

[billspro]

44 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

To the OP: Would you consider changing your poll to allow more than one choice?

 

 

 

billspro, you're correct that completion percentage is different than accuracy, and it would be lazy if people just look at his completion percentage and say "accuracy issues"

 

That said, people who watch a lot of film (like every game of every QB) and take careful notes assume nothing - they call what they see, and they do see accuracy issues at a higher rate than other QB prospects this year (Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold).

 

I haven't watched every game, but I watched enough film of all the QB to say I do see accuracy issues with Allen sometimes, just as I did with Jackson, and they concerned me more because with Jackson I could link them to obvious mechanical issues (footwork, hip) but with Allen I couldn't.  Now Jordan Palmer is on record saying there was an issue he identified and Allen is working on, and it's one I think I wouldn't have picked up on (overstriding with his lead foot).

 

I'm not trying to be a downer here, in the past I've been one who argued I don't see why QB can't improve their mechanics.  I've also been wrong 2x recently in arguing for that.

 

Reading defense is also an issue.  I put that lower down because I think all QB entering the NFL have a lot to learn there - much simpler Ds in college, and slower game speed.

 

The passes I saw that were inaccurate were usually swing passes. I do think he gets lazy with his mechanics in that area of the field. I also see him throw the ball too hard on shorter throws, he needs to work on his touch throws. The cool thing about Allen is you can see him throw into very tight windows (because his WRs were terrible) accurately on tape. I think his accuracy will look much better than people think by the time the season starts. 

 

I saw inaccuracy on Kizers tape last year and Jackson’s tape this year. The only area I felt Allen was inaccurate was swing passes. I also got ripped on last year for saying Watson was a very accurate QB.

 

If I am wrong though we are in big trouble because inaccurate QBs don’t make it in the NFL.

[LeGOATski]

Accuracy issues. 

 

They're well-documented. It's the major thing he has to improve on in order to be successful.

 

I'm sure they'll help him out with scheme and play calling. Daboll seems qualified enough to get it done.

[The Now Moment]

3 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I still think it is funny that no one is saying anything about the tape. They are just posing statistics and have latched on to the bad completion percentage. As Diler said, completion percentage should not be the metric for accuracy. It seems some people latched on to the 56% an just never looked back. 

 

Statistics like those are so anti-analystics. 

I stopped reading after the first guy said he won't be successful because of his stats.  The stats argument is for the lazy people who don't care to look at game film

[buffaloboyinATL]

I voted “ability to read a defense” because honestly, that is a concern for any QB coming out of college. Can you adjust to what pro defenses will throw at you.

[billspro]

27 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

The o-line and Benjamin stuff is about next year. And frankly, the first year performance of a rookie QB is not worth worrying about. Even the ones who turn out to be good are often bad the first year. And Allen may well spend that first year on the bench.

 

As for his performance this year vs. last year there are some concerns there. But comparing yards totals and TD totals is absolutely flat-out ridiculous. He threw 373 passes in 2016 and 270 in 2017. Of course he threw for much less yards and TDs. He did have some regression but using qualitative rather than quantitative stats here shows nothing. As for the quantitative problems, it's been reported very widely that he lost all of his best players this year, and that caused a lot of problems. Believe that or not, but that's most of the reason.

 

That and what Peter King reported that "as one official from a quarterback-needy team told me, how difficult it was to scout him because he had so many free rushers coming at him consistently." 41% of the plays he was under pressure, far far more than any of the other QB prospects had. 

 

Allen 41%

Jackson 36%

Darnold 31%

Rosen 29%

Mayfield 28%

Rudolph 23%

 

That would erode anyone's stats.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/04/18/josh-allen-draft-cleveland-browns-mmqb-peter-king

 

Not that I am convinced about the guy. I'm hopeful but very unconvinced. He just needs to show us, it's that simple.

 

I actually think Allen will have more time to throw in the NFL and his WRs will probably create more separation. People just assume because he was playing in a bad conference that his job as the QB would be easier. That is not the case. 41% pressure rate would get in any QBs head, combining  that with WRs being blanketed and that is a tough combo. The QB position is very reliant on the talent around them. 

 

I honestly dont think Rosen or Mayfield would have done better than Allen on Wyoming. Darnold may have done better because he has better anticipation than Allen at this point.

Edited May 6, 2018 by billspro

[Logic]

The good news is this: Look over the list of names saying bad things. Not ONE of those guys is worth a damn in terms of knowing anything more about football than any regular old message board fan. Not one.

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, Logic said:

The good news is this: Look over the list of names saying bad things. Not ONE of those guys is worth a damn in terms of knowing anything more about football than any regular old message board fan. Not one.

 

False!

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

2 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

3 minutes ago, Logic said:

The good news is this: Look over the list of names saying bad things. Not ONE of those guys is worth a damn in terms of knowing anything more about football than any regular old message board fan. Not one.

 

False!

Please do explain in some detail with your own “opinion” how this is False! 

 

 

I’ll say it again

if anyone here was truly excellent in evaluating NFL talent they wouldn’t be here they’d have a job in the NFL in some function or another.  You’d be able to put Mel Keiper out of a job.  

[NewEra]

5 hours ago, No Place To Hyde said:

Was about to say the same.

 

That said I voted coaching. Dave Culley is the biggest question mark on the staff for me. 

Culley AND Castillo.  I really wish we would’ve replaced both of those guys.  They scare the crap out of me

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

That and what Peter King reported that "as one official from a quarterback-needy team told me, how difficult it was to scout him because he had so many free rushers coming at him consistently." 41% of the plays he was under pressure, far far more than any of the other QB prospects had. 

 

Allen 41%

Jackson 36%

Darnold 31%

Rosen 29%

Mayfield 28%

Rudolph 23%

 

That would erode anyone's stats.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/04/18/josh-allen-draft-cleveland-browns-mmqb-peter-king

 

Not that I am convinced about the guy. I'm hopeful but very unconvinced. He just needs to show us, it's that simple.

 

Right on on all points.  I think it was Badlands Meanie who went off to watch Allen game films and came back to say pretty much the same, something like "I can't tell if that guy's any good or not"  We just need to see.

 

I'm surprised by the Rosen and the Rudolph percentages.  I'll have to think about this, but they both (watching film but not taking notes on each play) gave me the "feel" they were under pressure more than they were.  I'll have to think about that.  Perhaps it reflects their relative lack of mobility?

[Buffalo716]

Josh Allen is so innacurate if he only had 1 more completion a game he goes over 60%

 

dude is a bum who can’t hit a receiver ?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, hemma said:

Sounds like this selective group of  writers read and plagiarize each others columns.  

According to that Sports Science tv show, take out deliberate throw-aways and spikes and he is at 65% completion.

 

Like a !@#$ing political campaign around here.  Come back in 4 years and judge, but until then, let the kid play.

 

Well, yes, but then the other guys rise to 71% or 75% or 78% or something.

 

You're right, the draft's over and we just have to wait and see at this point.  But to think he'll get "4 years and judge" is unfortunately just impractical in today's FA NFL.  In 4 years we have to make a decision about picking up his option and negotiating a new contract.  He needs to be playing well enough to decide if he's "worth the big bucks" by year 3.

4 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Josh Allen is so innacurate if he only had 1 more completion a game he goes over 60%

 

dude is a bum who can’t hit a receiver ?

 

Now there you go, 716, mixing up accuracy with completion percentage

[Buffalo716]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well, yes, but then the other guys rise to 71% or 75% or 78% or something.

 

You're right, the draft's over and we just have to wait and see at this point.  But to think he'll get "4 years and judge" is unfortunately just impractical in today's FA NFL.  In 4 years we have to make a decision about picking up his option and negotiating a new contract.  He needs to be playing well enough to decide if he's "worth the big bucks" by year 3.

 

Now there you go, 716, mixing up accuracy with completion percentage

 

I know they aren’t mutual... 

 

but he played under center well over 40% in a pro style offense.

 

he wasn’t in an air raid or spread which inflated his stats.

 

yes, he had some inaccurate throws, a lot of it was due to footwork 

 

he has ALOT of other throws on tape where he is very accurate as well.

 

He also had to run for his life behind a porous oline.

 

If I had to forecast Joshs stats in an air raid, I think It would correlate to at least 62-63% because the scheme and nobody would say he’s super inaccurate 

 

EJ was 65% in college and I can tell you RN haplesss that Allen throws a MUCH BETTER ball than EJ

Edited May 6, 2018 by Buffalo716

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

I know they aren’t mutual... 

 

but he played under center well over 40% in a pro style offense.

 

he wasn’t in an air raid or spread which inflated his stats.

 

yes, he had some inaccurate throws, a lot of it was due to footwork 

 

he has ALOT of other throws on tape where he is very accurate as well.

 

He also had to run for his life behind a prodous o line.

 

If I had to forecast Joshs stats in an air raid, I think It would correlate to at least 62-63% because the scheme and nobody would say he’s super inaccurate 

 

EJ was 65% in college and I can tell you RN haplesss that Allen throws a MUCH BETTER ball than EJ

 

When I worry about Allen's accuracy, for me (and I'm sure in part for you), it's not his completion percentage that bothers me.

 

It's the throws he makes where I don't see an obvious mechanical thing, and the ball doesn't go where it should.  Yeah, he's under pressure, yeah some of them might be WR misreading the coverage or mistaking their route against the coverage they see.  But you can see IMO the same thing in the pro day and at the combine in some of his throws.  Now maybe it's a footwork issue, if so it's subtle to me.   The available film doesn't always make it possible to see, too.  (I wish they had more topical announcing at those things)

 

And yes, Allen has his moments where he just throws lasers, no one could do it better.  Which is, of course, why our Draft Brain Trust decided the risk/benefit was favorable.  I'm also sure the kind of offense he ran and the fact that he played under center came into the e v a l.

 

EJ was said to have "zip code accuracy" despite his 65%+ completion percentage for the same reason IMO - throws where his WR bailed him out but the ball just wasn't where it should have been.

[Billsflyer12]

Stats will never be able to tell you everything about what a player can do.  They can provide a lot of information, along with historical reference that paint a probability of success.  And in the case of Josh Allen, it would take a spectacular outlier performance — one that hasn’t happened this decade — to live up to the expectations of a top-10 pick.

 

Is is possible he could be the outlier from the past decade of data, YES.  Do I hope he is the outlier, YES.  Was Tom Brady an outlier, YES. But the overall data picture tells us historically his probilility of success is really small.

[Buffalo716]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

When I worry about Allen's accuracy, for me (and I'm sure in part for you), it's not his completion percentage that bothers me.

 

It's the throws he makes where I don't see an obvious mechanical thing, and the ball doesn't go where it should.  Yeah, he's under pressure, yeah some of them might be WR misreading the coverage or mistaking their route against the coverage they see.  But you can see IMO the same thing in the pro day and at the combine in some of his throws.  Now maybe it's a footwork issue, if so it's subtle to me.

 

And yes, Allen has his moments where he just throws lasers, no one could do it better.  Which is, of course, why our Draft Brain Trust decided the risk/benefit was favorable.

 

EJ was said to have "zip code accuracy" despite his 65%+ completion percentage for the same reason IMO - throws where his WR bailed him out but the ball just wasn't where it should have been.

 

Yes, EJ had area code accuracy. High and wide, low and and away etc. he struggled to put it on the $$$ anytime

 

When Josh is right, he is on the $$$... perfectly on the chest in stride... he has to build off that

 

and yes there are throws he missed on tape that make me scratch my head. But mechanics , especially lower body, are so important for repetition and so hard to see sometimes 

 

100 times out of 100 when Brady does his drop, his lower body is on point. His base and stride and feet are all in unison and perfect 

 

Josh isn’t at that point, and he can still have a habit of using all arm over his lower body... hence he sails some swing passes because he thinks he can just use his arm, when he really needs to have his waist , legs and base under control 

 

I feel like this is what Palmer had been doing with him the most 

[Fadingpain]

59 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Josh Allen is so innacurate if he only had 1 more completion a game he goes over 60%

 

dude is a bum who can’t hit a receiver ?

And if Tyrod Taylor could have consistently found open receivers and accurately delivered the ball to them, he'd still be a Buffalo Bill making $30 million a year.

 

But he can't and so he's not.

 

Don't see your point.

 

 

[Buffalo716]

5 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

And if Tyrod Taylor could have consistently found open receivers and accurately delivered the ball to them, he'd still be a Buffalo Bill making $30 million a year.

 

But he can't and so he's not.

 

Don't see your point.

 

 

 

Allen isn’t highly innacurate.  Add 1 completion a game to compensate for his drops, which there were 1 a game... and his completion % is above 60% and nobody is saying he’s super innacurate 

 

He throws a great deep and mid ball

 

1 completion a game is nothing, he could’ve easily been a 60% passer

 

its not far off 

 

if he was 100 completions off their would be major concern 

Edited May 6, 2018 by Buffalo716

[RochesterRob]

10 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

To the OP: You're preaching to the choir with me.

 

Allen over Rosen was a mistake; it was foolish to move up to take a guy like Allen; stats/history says Allen is almost certain to be a bust.

 

On the bright side, there will be more QBs coming out of college in the next few years and maybe we can get it right with one of them.

 

 

  But, but I was told many times here that QB's would not be available after 2018 ala most Ford sedans.  So, they ARE making QB's?  Lt. Dan?  You got new legs!