Combing through the negative Josh Allen Grades/Reviews

[BigDingus]

So I wanted to do further research into what others thought about Josh Allen. I had already read reviews, opinions and grades from most of the major outlets I follow, and read plenty of more that were posted on these boards. I had watched plenty of games & videos of him in college, yet still wanted to get a better sense of why myself and others still don't feel optimistic about his prospects. 

 

People always post all the positive things said about him & why he's going to do awesome, and that's fine. But there are legitimate reasons for be worried, and these grades/opinions reflect those concerns in similar ways. Do I think he will fail? No, not necessarily. But going off history, there's far more evidence pointing towards that than him becoming a franchise QB.

 

Here are 14 brief (mostly) snipets of reviews/grades/opinions on the pick, many of which I highlighted the commonalities between them. "Strong Arm" being echoed, while things like on-field play, accuracy, ability to read a defense, performance in big games, football IQ, pocket presence, footwork, etc. being absent is usually an awful sign for QB's, as is being a "project" or "raw" when you have 0 veteran QB's on the roster to mentor you/sit behind & learn from.

**********************************************************************

1. Rodger Sherman (The Ringer) -

"The red flags of draft QBs, all of which must apparently be treated equally:
MAYFIELD: too short to play QB in NFL?
ROSEN: too smart to play QB in NFL?
JACKSON: too fast, why put him at QB in the NFL?
ALLEN: cannot throw football to other football players"

"I would consider any team that used a first-round pick on Josh Allen to be the biggest loser of the first round. No good NFL quarterback has ever had statistics as bad as Allen’s college stats; his best-case statistical comparables include Brian Griese and Josh McCown.

 

There are just so many videos of him missing easy passes so badly. Sure, his arm is strong enough that teams should value his potential, but “extremely strong quarterback who may never learn how to throw to receivers” seems to me like a Day 3 pick, not a first-rounder. I remain baffled that he was treated like a top prospect throughout the entire draft process.

 

But the Bills didn’t just draft Allen. They traded up to get him, giving up two second-round picks to move up five spots. That’s a massive overpay on any draft value chart. And then the Bills also traded a third-rounder to the Ravens to move up from the 22nd pick to the 16th to select Tremaine Edmunds.

 

Trading up is the move of a team in win-now mode. The Bills did so—but they selected a quarterback whose supporters even consider him a project. That doesn’t jibe. I’m so happy that the Bills got to the playoffs last year, and so confused about their future."

 

 

2. Gennaro Filice & Nick Shook (NFL.com) -

 

(Draft Rank: Bills #23) "The top pick here generates the most buzz, but I'm in the group that thinks he doesn't end up panning out, due to multiple red flags too often covered up by a rare arm. My opinion on Allen's fate aside, the potential is still there, and Buffalo didn't have to move into the top four to

take him"

 

 

3. Dan Kadar (SBNation) -

(Bills Draft Grade: "The draft for the Bills will be judged on whether or not seventh overall pick Josh Allen becomes a franchise quarterback. If he does not, the Bills paid a steep to go up and get him. If he does, it’s obviously great. Personally, I question whether or not he’ll become a more accurate passer in the NFL."

 

 

4. Ian Wharton (BleacherReport) -

(Bills Draft Grade: B) "They were able to acquire Josh Allen for the cost of tackle Cordy Glenn, two second-round picks and the No. 7 overall pick. Passing up Josh Rosen, a much more natural passer and safer choice than Allen, looks like the wrong decision at the moment. Their grade would've been higher had they landed Rosen instead of such a volatile prospect in Allen, but the rest of their class was impressive."

 

5. Luke Easterling (DraftWire) -
 

"I like a lot of what the Bills did after they traded up for Josh Allen, who will take a lot of time and patience before he’s ready to face an NFL defense with success. In retrospect, they could have stayed at their original pick, still taken a talented quarterback, and used the picks they traded away to build a stronger supporting cast around him"

6. Sam Monson & Steve Palazzolo (Pro Football Focus) -

"The rumors were heavy that the Bills would move up to take Josh Allen, and they did just that. Allen has a cannon for an arm, combined with the size and athleticism to make spectacular plays outside the pocket, but he comes with big question marks in key areas, namely his accuracy and decision-making. He’s ranked among the nation’s worst in negatively-graded throws over the last two years and he finished 29th out of 38 quarterbacks in the draft class at avoiding turnover-worthy throws last season."

 

7. Steve Ruiz (USA Today) -
 

(Pick Grade: F)  The Bills gave up two second-round picks for the right to draft a quarterback who is nothing more than a strong arm. Allen is inaccurate, struggles to read defenses and is uncomfortable from the pocket. Other than that, he’s a pretty good quarterback.

This pick isn’t all that surprising. After all, this is the same team that thought Nathan Peterman gave it a better chance to win than Tyrod Taylor.

 

8. Vinnie Iyer (SportingNews.com) -

(Bills Draft Grade: D) "Edmunds and Phillips were the standout picks for Sean McDermott's front seven in his first draft with Brandon Beane. But this grade is based on the fact that Allen is likely to be a big-armed bust. The QB wasn't worth the trade, especially at the cost of two second-rounders. The Bills drafted like a team set to return to the playoffs; their glaring weaknesses on the offensive line and at wide receiver should have been addressed earlier. QB desperation is never a good way to draft, and it led to a chain reaction that gave Allen and AJ McCarron little support."

 

 

9. Nate Davis (USA Today) -

"Allen has as strong an arm as any prospect in recent memory and underrated athleticism at 6-5 and 237 pounds that will make him a red-zone weapon on the ground. But his 56.2% completion rate in college is a concern, and he never really dominated largely average competition, posting just two 300-yard games in three seasons for the Cowboys. If Allen proves he's not NFL-ready, which is the expectation, AJ McCarron was signed in free agency to serve as a bridge"

 

 

10. Kyle Silagyi - (BillsWire) -

(Pick Grade: C) "Josh Allen can best be described as an enigma.

He’s what somebody would draw when asked to sketch a franchise quarterback. He’s 6-foot-5. He has a cannon for an arm. He’s an elite athlete. On paper, Allen is a franchise quarterback.

The game, however, is not played on paper. Throughout his college career, Allen was never really able to live up to the hype surrounding him. In 2017, Allen completed just 56.3 percent of his passes for 1,812 yards. Sure, part of Allen’s struggles can be attributed to his poor surrounding cast, but his struggles can also be attributed to his poor footwork.

The fact that Buffalo had to part ways with two second round picks for the opportunity to select Allen doesn’t help his grade, as that’s a fair bit of value for a team to give up on a project quarterback. If Allen pans out and develops into a franchise quarterback, this grade will be an A+ in a few years. If he’s a bust, this grade will be an F. However, we’re not sure how Allen’s career will play out just yet, so the pick’s grade is as average as you can get."

 

11. Aaron Schatz (Football Outsiders) -

"I would rather have Tyrod Taylor quarterbacking my team over the next four years than Josh Allen"

 

12. Frank Schwab (Yahoo! Sports) -

"Allen has all the physical skill in the world. You’re still gambling on a guy who wasn’t first- or second-team all-Mountain West last season. That’s a big risk, especially moving up"

 

13. Nick Bromberg (Yahoo! Sports) -

"Taking Josh Allen over Josh Rosen is going to haunt the Bills for years"

 

14. Jason Owens (Yahoo! Sports) -
 

"Wow, the Bills gave up a haul to take a QB with accuracy problems."

 

**********************************************************************

 

Now throw in that our already shaky O-line lost its 3 best players, our WR corp is only Kelving Benjamin, he's 0-3 in games against Power 5 Conference teams, has thrown for 1 TD compared to 9 interceptions in those games, regressed significantly last season compared to the year before (threw for half the total yards and less than half the TD's), had just as many games throwing for 0 TD's as he did throwing for 2 or more last year (3 total for both), and that he's now expected to somehow get SIGNIFICANTLY better playing against far more difficult competition...I'm just not sure a "once in a generation arm" is going to be enough...

[beerme1]

F em all. Revisit this in two or three years.

[reddogblitz]

I voted on accuracy.  Accuracy is a pre requisite to be a QB. I question if it can even be "fixed".

[Aussie Joe]

Beane is either going to look like a genius or he is getting a lot of “ I told u so’s”...

 

There are a few things on your list that concern me...I can’t narrow it to one...

 

But, Beane is no dummy, and has been working on this decision for 12 months so let’s go with it and see how the decision looks pre draft 2020...

 

 

 

[Fadingpain]

To the OP: You're preaching to the choir with me.

 

Allen over Rosen was a mistake; it was foolish to move up to take a guy like Allen; stats/history says Allen is almost certain to be a bust.

 

On the bright side, there will be more QBs coming out of college in the next few years and maybe we can get it right with one of them.

 

 

[formerlyofCtown]

4 hours ago, BigDingus said:

So I wanted to do further research into what others thought about Josh Allen. I had already read reviews, opinions and grades from most of the major outlets I follow, and read plenty of more that were posted on these boards. I had watched plenty of games & videos of him in college, yet still wanted to get a better sense of why myself and others still don't feel optimistic about his prospects. 

 

People always post all the positive things said about him & why he's going to do awesome, and that's fine. But there are legitimate reasons for be worried, and these grades/opinions reflect those concerns in similar ways. Do I think he will fail? No, not necessarily. But going off history, there's far more evidence pointing towards that than him becoming a franchise QB.

 

Here are 14 brief (mostly) snipets of reviews/grades/opinions on the pick, many of which I highlighted the commonalities between them. "Strong Arm" being echoed, while things like on-field play, accuracy, ability to read a defense, performance in big games, football IQ, pocket presence, footwork, etc. being absent is usually an awful sign for QB's, as is being a "project" or "raw" when you have 0 veteran QB's on the roster to mentor you/sit behind & learn from.

**********************************************************************

1. Rodger Sherman (The Ringer) -

"The red flags of draft QBs, all of which must apparently be treated equally:
MAYFIELD: too short to play QB in NFL?
ROSEN: too smart to play QB in NFL?
JACKSON: too fast, why put him at QB in the NFL?
ALLEN: cannot throw football to other football players"

"I would consider any team that used a first-round pick on Josh Allen to be the biggest loser of the first round. No good NFL quarterback has ever had statistics as bad as Allen’s college stats; his best-case statistical comparables include Brian Griese and Josh McCown.

 

There are just so many videos of him missing easy passes so badly. Sure, his arm is strong enough that teams should value his potential, but “extremely strong quarterback who may never learn how to throw to receivers” seems to me like a Day 3 pick, not a first-rounder. I remain baffled that he was treated like a top prospect throughout the entire draft process.

 

But the Bills didn’t just draft Allen. They traded up to get him, giving up two second-round picks to move up five spots. That’s a massive overpay on any draft value chart. And then the Bills also traded a third-rounder to the Ravens to move up from the 22nd pick to the 16th to select Tremaine Edmunds.

 

Trading up is the move of a team in win-now mode. The Bills did so—but they selected a quarterback whose supporters even consider him a project. That doesn’t jibe. I’m so happy that the Bills got to the playoffs last year, and so confused about their future."

 

 

2. Gennaro Filice & Nick Shook (NFL.com) -

 

(Draft Rank: Bills #23) "The top pick here generates the most buzz, but I'm in the group that thinks he doesn't end up panning out, due to multiple red flags too often covered up by a rare arm. My opinion on Allen's fate aside, the potential is still there, and Buffalo didn't have to move into the top four to

take him"

 

 

3. Dan Kadar (SBNation) -

(Bills Draft Grade: "The draft for the Bills will be judged on whether or not seventh overall pick Josh Allen becomes a franchise quarterback. If he does not, the Bills paid a steep to go up and get him. If he does, it’s obviously great. Personally, I question whether or not he’ll become a more accurate passer in the NFL."

 

 

4. Ian Wharton (BleacherReport) -

(Bills Draft Grade: B) "They were able to acquire Josh Allen for the cost of tackle Cordy Glenn, two second-round picks and the No. 7 overall pick. Passing up Josh Rosen, a much more natural passer and safer choice than Allen, looks like the wrong decision at the moment. Their grade would've been higher had they landed Rosen instead of such a volatile prospect in Allen, but the rest of their class was impressive."

 

5. Luke Easterling (DraftWire) -
 

"I like a lot of what the Bills did after they traded up for Josh Allen, who will take a lot of time and patience before he’s ready to face an NFL defense with success. In retrospect, they could have stayed at their original pick, still taken a talented quarterback, and used the picks they traded away to build a stronger supporting cast around him"

6. Sam Monson & Steve Palazzolo (Pro Football Focus) -

"The rumors were heavy that the Bills would move up to take Josh Allen, and they did just that. Allen has a cannon for an arm, combined with the size and athleticism to make spectacular plays outside the pocket, but he comes with big question marks in key areas, namely his accuracy and decision-making. He’s ranked among the nation’s worst in negatively-graded throws over the last two years and he finished 29th out of 38 quarterbacks in the draft class at avoiding turnover-worthy throws last season."

 

7. Steve Ruiz (USA Today) -
 

(Pick Grade: F)  The Bills gave up two second-round picks for the right to draft a quarterback who is nothing more than a strong arm. Allen is inaccurate, struggles to read defenses and is uncomfortable from the pocket. Other than that, he’s a pretty good quarterback.

This pick isn’t all that surprising. After all, this is the same team that thought Nathan Peterman gave it a better chance to win than Tyrod Taylor.

 

8. Vinnie Iyer (SportingNews.com) -

(Bills Draft Grade: D) "Edmunds and Phillips were the standout picks for Sean McDermott's front seven in his first draft with Brandon Beane. But this grade is based on the fact that Allen is likely to be a big-armed bust. The QB wasn't worth the trade, especially at the cost of two second-rounders. The Bills drafted like a team set to return to the playoffs; their glaring weaknesses on the offensive line and at wide receiver should have been addressed earlier. QB desperation is never a good way to draft, and it led to a chain reaction that gave Allen and AJ McCarron little support."

 

 

9. Nate Davis (USA Today) -

"Allen has as strong an arm as any prospect in recent memory and underrated athleticism at 6-5 and 237 pounds that will make him a red-zone weapon on the ground. But his 56.2% completion rate in college is a concern, and he never really dominated largely average competition, posting just two 300-yard games in three seasons for the Cowboys. If Allen proves he's not NFL-ready, which is the expectation, AJ McCarron was signed in free agency to serve as a bridge"

 

 

10. Kyle Silagyi - (BillsWire) -

(Pick Grade: C) "Josh Allen can best be described as an enigma.

He’s what somebody would draw when asked to sketch a franchise quarterback. He’s 6-foot-5. He has a cannon for an arm. He’s an elite athlete. On paper, Allen is a franchise quarterback.

The game, however, is not played on paper. Throughout his college career, Allen was never really able to live up to the hype surrounding him. In 2017, Allen completed just 56.3 percent of his passes for 1,812 yards. Sure, part of Allen’s struggles can be attributed to his poor surrounding cast, but his struggles can also be attributed to his poor footwork.

The fact that Buffalo had to part ways with two second round picks for the opportunity to select Allen doesn’t help his grade, as that’s a fair bit of value for a team to give up on a project quarterback. If Allen pans out and develops into a franchise quarterback, this grade will be an A+ in a few years. If he’s a bust, this grade will be an F. However, we’re not sure how Allen’s career will play out just yet, so the pick’s grade is as average as you can get."

 

11. Aaron Schatz (Football Outsiders) -

"I would rather have Tyrod Taylor quarterbacking my team over the next four years than Josh Allen"

 

12. Frank Schwab (Yahoo! Sports) -

"Allen has all the physical skill in the world. You’re still gambling on a guy who wasn’t first- or second-team all-Mountain West last season. That’s a big risk, especially moving up"

 

13. Nick Bromberg (Yahoo! Sports) -

"Taking Josh Allen over Josh Rosen is going to haunt the Bills for years"

 

14. Jason Owens (Yahoo! Sports) -
 

"Wow, the Bills gave up a haul to take a QB with accuracy problems."

 

**********************************************************************

 

Now throw in that our already shaky O-line lost its 3 best players, our WR corp is only Kelving Benjamin, he's 0-3 in games against Power 5 Conference teams, has thrown for 1 TD compared to 9 interceptions in those games, regressed significantly last season compared to the year before (threw for half the total yards and less than half the TD's), had just as many games throwing for 0 TD's as he did throwing for 2 or more last year (3 total for both), and that he's now expected to somehow get SIGNIFICANTLY better playing against far more difficult competition...I'm just not sure a "once in a generation arm" is going to be enough...

That is one of the biggest list of nobodies I have ever seen.

I voted o-line.  I also am not sure if this coaching staff can develop a QB.  I believe his accuracy issues are exaggerated.  I also believe his mechanics are easily fixed. 

As to people bringing up his positives, I believe there's a lot more to like than to not like.

[ALF]

I just hope Beane and Jordan Palmer have it right. He will need a good OL and coaching to have a chance . 

[formerlyofCtown]

I hope that myself and the actual experts are correct about the kid.

Edited May 6, 2018 by formerlyofCtown

[Mickey]

Even if you are pessimistic about Allen, what are you most concerned could lead to his success?

 

1. That winning games will count more than completion percentage.

2. That Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott might actually know more than I do.

3. That people will notice that after months of arguing that the Bills would never pick Allen, I just cant accept that I was embarrassingly wrong.

4. That being wrong about the Allen pick, I must spend hours working on a thinly disguised crusade against him in a futile attempt to rescue my credibility.

5. Nothing, I am 100% convinced that Allen won't succeed but as a Bills fan I do support him. No, really, I do. Believe me, I do. Totally.

 

[BuffaloBillyG]

57 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

That is one of the biggest list of nobodies I have ever seen.

I voted o-line.  I also am not sure if this coaching staff can develop a QB.  I believe his accuracy issues are exaggerated.  I also believe his mechanics are easily fixed. 

As to people bringing up his positives, I believe there's a lot more to like than to not like.

Was about to say the same.

 

That said I voted coaching. Dave Culley is the biggest question mark on the staff for me. 

[Doc Brown]

My biggest fear besides Allen quoting Modern Family on twitter is that his quality of play in college will transfer to the NFL.  

[Buddo]

Quite honestly, for all of the options have some validity, my biggest concern would be to start him too soon. Imho, he needs a lot of time bench warming, to see what goes on with NFL defenses, and to hone his footwork.

 

I'm concerned that he will look terrific in shorts, especially with the rocket arm he has, but not actually be a better QB now than McCarron, when proper games, and pads, go on.

 

For the moment, it's good that they have him as the 3rd QB on the depth chart, I just hope it stays that way for a fair part of the season at least.

 

The last QB we drafted in the 1st round, was also a guy who needed time to develop, and through roster mismanagement, and an element of bad luck, he never got it. At least this time around, we should have enough competency at the position ahead of Allen, for that not to have to be the case.

 

Another 'issue' I can foresee, is that as and when Allen is 'ready', he is going to have to have a different offense to run than either McCarron or Peterman. Mainly so as to account for using that rocket arm to the best advantage. One thing that does seem as though it's a positive in that respect however, is that Daboll does appear to be capable of doing that sort of thing, as evidenced by the switch of QBs and approach to their offence, that he showed in that game for 'Bama.

[CSBill]

I suppose none of this is a surprise to Beane and McDermott. I don't think they woke up after the draft, read the reviews, and went, "Damn, why didn't someone tell us this?" I am trusting their far more experienced perspective--more than even these "paid-to-write-critical-things" reporters--than our limited view.

 

Yes, there is a rick, Cleveland is getting hammered the same way in the national media for picking Mayfield. If Rosen was that good, why did he fall to 10? And Darnold's interception problem will only get accentuated in the NFL. All had their flaws, and all have their strengths. What was so unique about this draft was the options. If it had only been one of them, that one would have been the number one pick.

 

So, as it is, the people who are getting paid to do this in Buffalo have done pretty well over the past year. I'll go with their far more educated perspective than mine, or that of any hack trying to make a name for himself selling sports columns. 

 

 

 

Edited May 6, 2018 by CSBill

[8-8 Forever?]

just be smart about it and don't put him on the field this year

[MrEpsYtown]

I still think it is funny that no one is saying anything about the tape. They are just posing statistics and have latched on to the bad completion percentage. As Diler said, completion percentage should not be the metric for accuracy. It seems some people latched on to the 56% an just never looked back. 

 

Statistics like those are so anti-analystics. 

Edited May 6, 2018 by MrEpsYtown

[die hard bills fan]

1 hour ago, Mickey said:

Even if you are pessimistic about Allen, what are you most concerned could lead to his success?

 

1. That winning games will count more than completion percentage.

2. That Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott might actually know more than I do.

3. That people will notice that after months of arguing that the Bills would never pick Allen, I just cant accept that I was embarrassingly wrong.

4. That being wrong about the Allen pick, I must spend hours working on a thinly disguised crusade against him in a futile attempt to rescue my credibility.

5. Nothing, I am 100% convinced that Allen won't succeed but as a Bills fan I do support him. No, really, I do. Believe me, I do. Totally.

 

Perfect

[Kangaxx]

I'll give everyone on this forum a little tip as it seems most people in media/analytics like to grab onto a simple number that shows only a fraction of the whole picture. Completion Percentage ≠ QB Accuracy. 

[Not at the table Karlos]

Get rid of none of the above and replace it with all of the above. I hope I am very wrong tho.

[Trogdor]

25 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I still think it is funny that no one is saying anything about the tape. They are just posing statistics and have latched on to the bad completion percentage. As Diler said, completion percentage should not be the metric for accuracy. It seems some people latched on to the 56% an just never looked back. 

 

Statistics like those are so anti-analystics. 

It's no different than people blaming the long throw scheme they ran. The truth is that he wasn't nearly as accurate with long throws as the other top 5. His WRs had the lowest or second lowest drop percentage of the top 5. There has to be some other circumstance to just blow off completion percentage as a garbage stat, and he just doesn't have anything to prove that it isn't a problem. You can just watch the senior bowl drills and realize that he needs a lot of work to become an accurate QB. 

[Wayne Arnold]

5 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

I voted on accuracy.  Accuracy is a pre requisite to be a QB. I question if it can even be "fixed".

 

So inaccurate...

 

 

More inaccuracy...

 

 

The horror...