ESPN Insider: Anonymous Execs weigh in on Bills picks and QBs

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

25 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

My point was it shouldn't be the biggest or end all factor. Obviously you need a strong arm to be a starting QB in the NFL. Your arm doesn't need to be extra strong to play in Buffalo. 

Got ya; that's not incorrect. I think perhaps some people are just reading into the weather thing a bit too much. There are several factors that the Bills looked at when choosing their QB. That's one of them, but certainly not at the top of the priority list.

 

It certainly helps to have a strong arm, especially in Buffalo, as opposed to a "Fitz" arm. But in the end, all that matters is wins. Much of that will depend on if Allen can improve certain aspects of his game, but I think it will have much more to do with how well the team around him is constructed. I believe the Bills are in a pretty good position to be able to build the team properly over the next couple of years, talent and cap wise, so hopefully Allen comes into his own by then.  That should open a nice sized window for them to truly compete.

Edited May 4, 2018 by Drunken Pygmy Goat

[Bruce_Stools]

1 hour ago, section122 said:

 

 

 

My favorite post of 2018! Thank you

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, Drunken Pygmy Goat said:

 

The issue with Rosen isn't the wealthy background (although there's some concern with that). The issue is the various people that have had direct interactions with him during his time at UCLA that pretty much all believe he's a bit too cocky and/or conceded. Perhaps that is a reflection of growing up a certain way, but it's the common thoughts of several people that "created" that "stigma". Many of the people that he played with came from poor, underpriveledged backgrounds, and fought for everything they had, leading to their personalities to be different than a guy like Josh Rosen. Usually, if a person acts and carries themselves a certain way, they don't know that it's "wrong", or perceived as "douche",  until someone says as much. When multiple people share the same opinion (and not people in the media), there's probably more truth to it than not. And in a professional football locker room, that is certainly a major issue.

When Jim Kelly entered the league he was not known for his humility and his non-combative personality. His teammates can tell you that and the people he interacted with in the bars can also tell you that. He eventually grew up. Regardless how unlikeable you think Rosen is no one can claim that he didn't work hard at the game. 

 

Rosen is certainly not a warm and fuzzy guy. I'm sure he would even admit to that. No question he has a challenging personality. Some franchises don't want to deal with it and others are willing to do. It's not an issue of right or wrong as it is an issue of choice. Buffalo wasn't one of the organizations willing to handle it while Arizona was. 

[billsfan89]

Rosen doesn't have many issues with his play, he isn't the most mobile but he isn't a statue in the pocket either. But as a pocket passer, he shows almost everything you would want. He is smart, knows how to execute an offense, he doesn't have a legendary arm like Allen but he has a dam good arm and is accurate. Rosen also has very good fundamentals only some small issues with footwork. 

 

The 2 significant knocks on Rosen have always been durability (a Significant injury ended his 2016 season and he had a concussion in 2017 and there might have been some other concussions) which is a legitimate concern and Rosen seems to be viewed as a combustible personality. 

 

I think teams view Rosen as a Jay Cutler type, but that to me isn't fair since Cutler lacked a lot of energy and failed to galvanize teammates a lot of the time. Rosen is very fiery and passionate but he could be much more self-serving and loose-lipped which coaches don't like. 

 

All things considered, I would have taken Rosen, I think the knocks of being too smart and coming from an entitled family are dumb, durability and general personality concerns are a lot to consider but I think Allen's possible accuracy issues and the work he needs on his fundamentals are larger issues. 

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

27 minutes ago, JohnC said:

When Jim Kelly entered the league he was not known for his humility and his non-combative personality. His teammates can tell you that and the people he interacted with in the bars can also tell you that. He eventually grew up. Regardless how unlikeable you think Rosen is no one can claim that he didn't work hard at the game. 

 

Rosen is certainly not a warm and fuzzy guy. I'm sure he would even admit to that. No question he has a challenging personality. Some franchises don't want to deal with it and others are willing to do. It's not an issue of right or wrong as it is an issue of choice. Buffalo wasn't one of the organizations willing to handle it while Arizona was. 

 

I can't disagree with any of this, but I would say that the "attitude/character issues" of Rosen and Kelly aren't necessarily the same. Both seemed to have a bit of cockiness about them coming out of college, but Kelly was a tough kid, while Rosen seems a bit soft. Also, Rosen's "attitude" seems to stem more from an elitist, entitled environment, whereas Kelly came from a blue collar family in western PA. And quite frankly, I think Kelly was a much more coveted prospect coming out of college than Rosen. Kelly was just that good, and I think teams were able to see past the "character" concerns much more so than perhaps they are now with Rosen. 

 

This is all just my opinion, of course. I'm only going off of what I've heard. 

 

But yeah, there's no denying that Rosen got to this point by working hard. Maybe he, too, will overcome the character issues. 

[BadLandsMeanie]

19 hours ago, racketmaster said:

ESPN link

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2018/insider/story/_/id/23374287/2018-nfl-draft-execs-unfiltered-every-team-picks-baker-mayfield-saquon-barkley-josh-rosen-lamar-jackson-more

 

Below are the comments that are Bills related or on the top 6 QBS. 

 

Baltimore Ravens

"Lamar Jackson at No. 32 was my favorite pick of the first round," an exec said. "You get a fifth-year option for a quarterback who has a chance to come in and unseat Joe Flacco in a hurry and is a dynamic playmaker. It's a genius first round for me because they kept trading back and still got the guys they wanted. We compared the tight end [Hurst] to Todd Heap, so the fit really could not be any better in Baltimore."

Another exec compared Jackson favorably to Michael Vick, whose former quarterbacks coach in Philly (James Urban) holds the same job in Baltimore.

"Can you teach a guy to see it quicker and become accurate?" an exec asked. "That will be the question with Jackson. The talent is there. He is probably a better scrambler than Vick. He probably has better passing technique than Vick had, and if you really want to look at it, Michael Vick was the first pick in the draft who had a good career."

Not everyone loves Jackson as a prospect, or else other teams would have been scrambling to select him earlier in the round.

"Thirteen test score [on the Wonderlic], and his mom is his agent," one skeptic said.

Another insider bristled over the gap between Jackson's college production and where he was selected, particularly with so many questions surrounding the other quarterbacks.

"We will take Rosen, whose teammates dislike him and who makes a fool of himself on TV," this insider said, "but there were only a few teams that would have taken Jackson, even though he could be the best quarterback in this draft."

 

Arizona Cardinals

"I was hoping they would stay at 15 and get Lamar Jackson, but I don't have a problem with what they did," an exec said. "Everybody recognizes the talent with Rosen, but he is not the top guy in the draft because nobody likes him."

The Cardinals were in a difficult spot. They needed a quarterback, but they couldn't realistically trade up high enough to have their choice. They would land whichever quarterback lasted long enough to reach within striking distance. Rosen was prickly out of the gates, saying he would not "come in and be an a--h--- and think that my s--- don't stink," despite being "pissed" that teams drafting ahead of Arizona made "big mistakes" in choosing other QBs.

Exec after exec said the same things about Rosen. One called the former UCLA quarterback a combination of Jeff George and Jay Cutler who would struggle to lead a team. Another worried that Rosen was not durable, comparing him to current Cardinals starter Sam Bradford.

"I think they have it set up right in Arizona because [offensive coordinator] Mike McCoy can speak the kid's language and talk fast enough to try to stay ahead of the kid so he does not get bored," an insider said.

An exec noted that quarterbacks coach Byron Leftwich, already considered future head-coaching material by former Cardinals coach Bruce Arians, would become a shooting star if he could help mold Rosen into a success.

"Byron will be good for the kid if Rosen allows it," an insider said.

This insider then let out a chuckle.

"Byron in about a week will probably want to take a poke at him," this insider continued. "He's from f---ing D.C., and he ain't having a cake eater walk in and act like an a--h---."

 

Buffalo Bills

That is where Buffalo bet its future on Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen.

"It's a cold-weather quarterback who is big and strong, not frail and little, in a cold-weather city where it's windy," an exec said. "You are going to have to throw it through the wind and he can do those things. Good job for that. He is aw-shucks, likes football, makes his team visits with sweats and tennis shoes -- perfect for Buffalo. They don't need Baker Mayfield in f---ing designer clothes, OK? They need Jim Kelly."

For the Bills, this draft was about finding a quarterback and loading up on defense with linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, defensive tackle Harrison Phillips, cornerback Taron Johnson and cornerback Siran Neal in the first five rounds.

"The linebacker [Edmunds] is a play-making, run-around, off-the-ball 'backer," an exec said, "and guess what they play in Buffalo? A really simple scheme in which you make plays and run around. Perfect. Edmunds makes plays sideline-to-sideline, and can run through the line of scrimmage. He is raw, but has enough athleticism to defend the short-zone pass because guess what they play? Carolina's defense -- short-zone pass."

 

Cleveland Browns

What if someone told you two months ago that the Browns would select Baker Mayfield first overall?

"No F'ing way," said an exec. "I came to grips with it the night before, but I didn't fully come to grips with it until the card was turned in, and I was like, 'My God, what is going on here?'"

This exec said much of the quarterback evaluation process comes down to the feel a team has after meeting with a player.

"John [Dorsey] wants a leader of men," this exec said. "He must have thought Baker was a leader of men. The time teams spend with quarterbacks one-on-one really is a big factor."

Selecting Sam Darnold instead of Mayfield would have felt like the conventional play, but there was always the potential for someone to love Mayfield near the top.

"Do you trust Baker Mayfield or not?" one insider asked two weeks before the draft. "If you do, then Baker Mayfield would be No. 1 [among the quarterbacks]."

 

NY Jets

"It's like the biggest gift they have ever received," an exec said. "They may have played this thing perfectly. I almost wondered if they leaked that they liked Mayfield, which forced Cleveland to take Mayfield at 1 as opposed to getting him at 4. I do not know if that was the case, but if it was, that was masterful by them."

Another exec thought the Browns' hiring of Scot McCloughan played at least some role in steering the team toward Mayfield. However it happened, the Jets seemed to win.

"They are all-in at this point," this exec said. "If they don't get it right, they are all fired, anyway. You are all-in, and you got a really good quarterback. If he fails, they fail anyway. If they didn't get Darnold, look at the other quarterbacks. I think they would have been done because I think Darnold is probably the best one."

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

"I actually like Rudolph more than I like Josh Allen," this insider said. "Looking at the situation in Pittsburgh vs. the situation in Buffalo, I would almost bank on Rudolph's future more than Allen's future. Then, look at what the teams gave up to get a quarterback. The Jets are really happy Darnold was there for them, and it worked out great, and they need to be excited, but we cannot forget the No. 3 pick and three second-rounders they gave up to get him."

 

Not impressed with Pittsburgh's pick of Edmunds.   "His brother [Tremaine, chosen 16th by the Bills] is going to be awesome for Buffalo".

 

Washington Redskins

"I would have taken Tremaine Edmunds because he is 19 years old [20 as of Wednesday], and he is a three-down player no matter what. He can drop, he can pass rush, he can play the run. He could play inside linebacker, outside linebacker, defensive end -- you name it. And when he is 21-22 years old, he could be 245 pounds."

 Something about this article nagged at me a little and I didn't know why. I returned a few times to read it again and now I know what it is.

 

These guys sound like people of average intelligence who don't know a lot more than me.

What  mean is, if you talk to a mechanic about how he sets up a race car, you are going to learn some things that you wouldn't just already know. Like how they use different tires on which wheel or how they angle the wheels in the alignment or how they set up the suspension to match a specific race track. Detailed information having to do with being trained to do a particular job.

 

Or a landscaper will tell you what the soil needs and how they make it good and what plants do best in what conditions and all kinds of things.

 

These guys sound like if I asked a builder about his business he might say: Well, we build the rooms which are usually square because it is much easier that way. Curved walls are harder so more expensive. And then there is a roof as you know. But we put shingles on the roof because otherwise the water still gets in you see? You need the shingles because the wood isn't water proof. And it doesn't end there. You see those half pipes at the edge of the roof? Those are gutters and we put those on to catch the water that runs off the roof so that way it doesn't just drip down all over and make a big mess.

 

To me these guys sound like men of average intelligence who don't actually know very much. And I think Brandon Beane is going to mop the floor with these people because to me he seems to be well about average intelligence and to know quite a lot.

 

 

Edited May 4, 2018 by BadLandsMeanie

[JohnC]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

Hopefully McBeane are right or they will get roasted and aren't going to last here if Rosen succeeds despite the attitude and the project Allen fails. 

Organizations make judgments on what's best for themselves. A good fit for you might be a bad fit for someone else. A good  fit for someone else might be a bad fit for you. Especially when deciding on a qb personality is a consideration. With Rosen it seems it was a major consideration. He is who he is. If a franchise is uncomfortable with the package brought by a player then find another player with a different package in which you are comfortable with. 

 

I think Rosen is going to be a good qb in this league. I also believe in time Allen is going to be a good qb for us. Teams with different philosophies succeed and fail. You do what you believe is right for your franchise and then ultimately are held accountable for the results. 

[HOUSE]

I identified the GM

 

its Brandon Beane

[BADOLBILZ]

43 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Hopefully McBeane are right or they will get roasted and aren't going to last here if Rosen succeeds despite the attitude and the project Allen fails. 

 

 

I'm just glad the chips are on the table so the excuses are off it.  

 

If they fail I hope the discipline carries over along with whatever successful schemes.    Too many unnecessarily full restarts.  A regime change can be a step forward instead of one forward and one back.  Hopefully Pegs learned that for next time.

[Kemp]

5 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

This statement couldn't be further from the truth. And in actuality is a great example of nerd arrogance.

 

Yes, statistics are for nerds. Gut feelings are for big, strong men.

 

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former. " - Albert Einstein

[Wayne Arnold]

21 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

Yes, statistics are for nerds. Gut feelings are for big, strong men.

 

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former. " - Albert Einstein

 

More arrogance. Or maybe just human stupidity.

 

Thinking (a) Beane and his staff chose Allen because of gut feelings, and (b) analytics are the be-all, end-all of evaluating college quarterbacks is dumb enough to make Einstein roll in his grave.

[Kemp]

5 hours ago, White Linen said:

 

This post tells me you're not fully committed to analytics or don't understand it.  Analytics is going beyond the completions percentage, dissecting it, so that you understand what caused/effected it.  They did that and so have a lot of posters here.  That's how we know the inaccuracy narrative is BS.  

 

Every draft pick also has a certain amount of "gut" involved also.  This is true because analytics lie all the time, so if you go with that, you'll lose just as many times as going with your gut.

 

I wrote this:

 "I'm not just talking about his abysmal completion percentage".

 

Then you tell me I don't understand it's beyond completion percentage. But I don't understand it.

 

I previously posted the most comprehensive analytical breakdown on this year's QB class: https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons.

 

If you believe gut will be as successful as analytics, it's you that has not a clear understanding of analytics. 

[Kemp]

1 hour ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

More arrogance. Or maybe just human stupidity.

 

Thinking (a) Beane and his staff chose Allen because of gut feelings, and (b) analytics are the be-all, end-all of evaluating college quarterbacks is dumb enough to make Einstein roll in his grave.

 

The theory of relativity was based on a gut feeling, not analysis of data?

 

Analytics don't answer every question. They lead you down a path of logic.

 

You might want to read https://www.amazon.com/Undoing-Project-Friendship-Changed-Minds/dp/0393254593.

 

It explains how what we think we know is often wrong. Besides being informative, It's a great read, too.

[Saxum]

On 5/3/2018 at 8:50 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

It would surprise me.  Also if Brady Quinn were to "take a poke at him" as the one exec irresponsibly suggested.

Rosen is not Geno Smith, your team's struggling 2nd round draft pick.  He's the guy your team just traded up in the first to draft.

 

Dumb like NFLPA's Troy Vincent?  He took out 1st round QB Losman in practice and he apparently had been given him lip in practices before that.  It was called an "accident" but many at time did not believe it.

http://www.espn.com/espn/wire/_/section/nfl/id/1866917

https://www.upi.com/Losman-breaks-leg-at-practice/38141093444990/

On 5/3/2018 at 9:35 PM, bills_believer said:

 

Do you remember JP Losman the Bills first round QB draft pick years ago? From what I remember some of the veterans took offence to the way he carried himself. Troy Vincent who was a union rep gave him a hard hit in practice and broke his arm. JP lost his rookie season to the injury. 

 

Broke his leg not arm.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

Dumb like NFLPA's Troy Vincent?

 

I already responded to that elsewhere.

 

But yes, if it were intentional to try to injure the Bills 1st round QB in preseason, it was incredibly dumb and Vincent should have been slung out of town.

The coach(quoted), fans in the stands (quoted), and others say it was not intentional - it may have been Vincent could have done more to not collide or that he "seized the opportunity" to collide.  At worst, he wasn't deliberately trying to break Losman's leg or injure him.

 

Can you see how that's different than the man being paid to coach the QB taking a deliberate swing at Rosen?  He's being tagged as a future NFL HC right now, and he'd be out on his ass and never coach again at worst, he would be handicapped in his pursuit of future coaching jobs at best.

[Fadingpain]

On May 3, 2018 at 7:12 PM, racketmaster said:

"It's a cold-weather quarterback who is big and strong, not frail and little, in a cold-weather city where it's windy," an exec said. "You are going to have to throw it through the wind and he can do those things. Good job for that. He is aw-shucks, likes football, makes his team visits with sweats and tennis shoes -- perfect for Buffalo. They don't need Baker Mayfield in f---ing designer clothes, OK? They need Jim Kelly."

This line of thinking is 30 years out of date and was stupid 30 years ago.

 

These guys don't change.  And people wonder why the "hit" rate among NFL draftees is so low.

 

 

[Saxum]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I already responded to that elsewhere.

 

But yes, if it were intentional to try to injure the Bills 1st round QB in preseason, it was incredibly dumb and Vincent should have been slung out of town.

The coach(quoted), fans in the stands (quoted), and others say it was not intentional - it may have been Vincent could have done more to not collide or that he "seized the opportunity" to collide.  At worst, he wasn't deliberately trying to break Losman's leg or injure him.

 

Can you see how that's different than the man being paid to coach the QB taking a deliberate swing at Rosen?  He's being tagged as a future NFL HC right now, and he'd be out on his ass and never coach again at worst, he would be handicapped in his pursuit of future coaching jobs at best.

 

Yes I do and doubt it will be a coach just some other player who has been shown up and in danger of being cutting I think so temper is thin.

[White Linen]

On 5/4/2018 at 4:57 PM, Kemp said:

 

The theory of relativity was based on a gut feeling, not analysis of data?

 

Analytics don't answer every question. They lead you down a path of logic.

 

You might want to read https://www.amazon.com/Undoing-Project-Friendship-Changed-Minds/dp/0393254593.

 

It explains how what we think we know is often wrong. Besides being informative, It's a great read, too.

 

My point to you was if you used analytics and it lead you down the path to believe Allen is inaccurate - you don't understand analytics or your wrong.  You can simply pick one.  

[Kemp]

7 hours ago, White Linen said:

 

My point to you was if you used analytics and it lead you down the path to believe Allen is inaccurate - you don't understand analytics or your wrong.  You can simply pick one.  

 

Why is it that vast majority of people who use analytics agree with me and not you? 

 

You understand it better than the prevailing opinion?

 

Based on your view of analytics, where would Allen fall in this years QB class and why?

[Kemp]

7 hours ago, White Linen said:

 

My point to you was if you used analytics and it lead you down the path to believe Allen is inaccurate - you don't understand analytics or your wrong.  You can simply pick one.  

 

www.google.com/amp/s/www.theringer.com/platform/amp/2018/4/11/17224760/josh-allen-cleveland-browns-analytics-nfl-draft