Josh Allen: Analytics

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

 

I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree. Maybe I’m too stuck on what Roethlisberger looks like now versus how he was a team Miami OH but I think the way Allen moves, the ability to make throws without his feet being clean, the way he scrambles around, the way he attacks vertically, is all much more similar to Cam than Ben IMO.

 

Fair enough, but I think we can agree that we hope Allen is as good as his potential. Allen's biggest issue in my mind is can he refine his footwork and will that improve his accuracy? Improved footwork can help a QB become more accurate but is that enough to make Allen have the touch and accuracy needed to be a successful pro QB. 

 

I think Allen is smart enough to develop his decision making and reading of defenses. But accuracy is something that is hard to improve significantly. Are those other factors regarding Allen's accuracy true (structure of the offense, bad O-line play, and a general lack of talent around him) or is Allen just another Kyle Boller, rocket arm but not accurate enough. 

Edited May 4, 2018 by billsfan89

[T master]

On 5/3/2018 at 11:55 AM, Like A Mofo said:

Question: I hard one draft expert on WGR a few days ago state 'The analytics suggest that Josh Allen will not become a franchise QB'

 

What analytics is he referring to? Anyone know where they are available?

 

Thanks in advance

 

Mel Kiper football expert also said Cordy Glenn wouldn't be a starting LT & was better at RT i don't think the numbers have a lot to do with anything it's just another talking point for TV & blog sights ...

 

I think coaching has a lot more to do with it than numbers !!

Edited May 5, 2018 by T master

[All_Pro_Bills]

I posted this line of reasoning elsewhere on the topic of Allen but nobody has addressed my question.  Everybody is aware of analytics and statistics but Beane/McDermott choose Allen over the safer, more, polished Rosen.  Given the numbers why would they do that?  Are they collectively stupid?  Can't they read charts and reports?  Or perhaps more likely they have a better perspective and firsthand information that somebody just looking at the numbers doesn't have.  Pro or con I suspect nobody here has any perspective better than the Bills GM, coaching, and scouting staffs.  

 

I don't see the comparison to Newton either but I'm looking at it from a different perspective, behavior and attitude.  I guarantee that Allen with not do anything like the childish Superman routine when making a play or punk out on going for the ball if he fumbles in the Super Bowl.  

[billspro]

Wyoming was 8-3 (losses to Iowa, Oregon, and Boise St) with Josh Allen as the starting QB this year, 0-2 without him. 

 

As a Junior Allen went 8-6 (close losses in the championship game and the bowl game to finish the season).

 

Wyoming went 2-10 without Josh Allen in 2015. 

 

With Josh Allen, they went 16-9 Without Josh Allen, they went 2-12. 

 

There is obviously something there that doesn't show up on a throwing statistic stat sheet. 

 

 

 

Edited May 5, 2018 by billspro

[LeGOATski]

Its clear that he was the only real player they had. 

 

But the knocks on him are accuracy and decision-making.

 

Was he trying to do too much? Probably.

[jr1]

rookies need playing time like Donovan Mitchell in basketball

[GunnerBill]

He was unquestionably Wyoming's best player and possibly their best Quarterback ever. That means little to his chances of NFL success. 

[LeGOATski]

25 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

He was unquestionably Wyoming's best player and possibly their best Quarterback ever. That means little to his chances of NFL success. 

What if they move the Bills to Wyoming?

 

I hear we have a decent fan base there.

[Magox]

Without doubt Allen was a Gamechanger for Wyoming and he almost eeked out a victory vs Boise State.  The throws he was making that game was sick.

 

After now watching every pass he made in 10 of his games, I'm more confident than ever that he's going to end up being our franchise QB.

 

The 56% completion rate stigma he has with some fans does not jive with how accurate of a passer he really is.

 

Sure, he needs some work with his footwork and his short and swing passes tend to be thrown high, but when he is making those 10-35 yard passes he is pretty damn accurate.  And he has that cannon of an arm that allows him to make more game changing plays than just about any other QB.  Not to mention the way he extends plays, his strength and athleticism allow him to have elite capability in that aspect.  And what I love about him is that when he is extending plays he always keeps his head up looking for plays and he loves to go for the kill shot.  He has got that mentality to go for the TD.

 

One more thing, one of the knocks that I heard parroted over and over was that he lacks touch.  To be honest with you I never objected because I hadn't seen that much film on him.  I naturally saw his famed 56% rate and listened to others and naturally assumed that was true.

 

Well.....after watching a bunch of his throws I can confidently say that is bull ****.  When he is throwing it 15+ yards and he decides to take something off his throws he displays lots of touch.  He just needs to improve his short throws.

 

The guy is going to be good.

[CSBill]

41 minutes ago, Magox said:

Without doubt Allen was a Gamechanger for Wyoming and he almost eeked out a victory vs Boise State.  The throws he was making that game was sick.

 

After now watching every pass he made in 10 of his games, I'm more confident than ever that he's going to end up being our franchise QB.

 

The 56% completion rate stigma he has with some fans does not jive with how accurate of a passer he really is.

 

Sure, he needs some work with his footwork and his short and swing passes tend to be thrown high, but when he is making those 10-35 yard passes he is pretty damn accurate.  And he has that cannon of an arm that allows him to make more game changing plays than just about any other QB.  Not to mention the way he extends plays, his strength and athleticism allow him to have elite capability in that aspect.  And what I love about him is that when he is extending plays he always keeps his head up looking for plays and he loves to go for the kill shot.  He has got that mentality to go for the TD.

 

One more thing, one of the knocks that I heard parroted over and over was that he lacks touch.  To be honest with you I never objected because I hadn't seen that much film on him.  I naturally saw his famed 56% rate and listened to others and naturally assumed that was true.

 

Well.....after watching a bunch of his throws I can confidently say that is bull ****.  When he is throwing it 15+ yards and he decides to take something off his throws he displays lots of touch.  He just needs to improve his short throws.

 

The guy is going to be good.

 

Dilly! Dilly!

[JaCrispy]

3 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

Its clear that he was the only real player they had. 

 

But the knocks on him are accuracy and decision-making.

 

Was he trying to do too much? Probably.

After going back and watching more video of him, his accuracy doesn’t appear to be as bad as initially thought... in fact it looks pretty good 

[Mickey]

55 minutes ago, Magox said:

Without doubt Allen was a Gamechanger for Wyoming and he almost eeked out a victory vs Boise State.  The throws he was making that game was sick.

 

After now watching every pass he made in 10 of his games, I'm more confident than ever that he's going to end up being our franchise QB.

 

The 56% completion rate stigma he has with some fans does not jive with how accurate of a passer he really is.

 

Sure, he needs some work with his footwork and his short and swing passes tend to be thrown high, but when he is making those 10-35 yard passes he is pretty damn accurate.  And he has that cannon of an arm that allows him to make more game changing plays than just about any other QB.  Not to mention the way he extends plays, his strength and athleticism allow him to have elite capability in that aspect.  And what I love about him is that when he is extending plays he always keeps his head up looking for plays and he loves to go for the kill shot.  He has got that mentality to go for the TD.

 

One more thing, one of the knocks that I heard parroted over and over was that he lacks touch.  To be honest with you I never objected because I hadn't seen that much film on him.  I naturally saw his famed 56% rate and listened to others and naturally assumed that was true.

 

Well.....after watching a bunch of his throws I can confidently say that is bull ****.  When he is throwing it 15+ yards and he decides to take something off his throws he displays lots of touch.  He just needs to improve his short throws.

 

The guy is going to be good.

 

From what I could see, he does fine on short throws and designed screens. Where he had trouble was when he was trying to go downfield but eventually had to decide to dump it off. It seemed like he doesn't always reset his feet for the check down and instead just relied on his ability to flip it out there with his arm alone. He also looked like he was waiting until the very last second before giving up on the downfield routes leaving him in a situation where he really had to rush the check down throw so that there was no time to reset his feet or otherwise  set up for the throw. I think those throws seem so easy that he likely doesn't think it all that important to pay much attention to technique. When the first or even the only read was a short pass such as on screen passes, I didn't see anything unusual in terms of accuracy. There was one particular play, I think it was against Colorado State, he was trying to hit an out-route on the right side about 7-8 yards downfield, it wasn't open but he waited and waited to see if the WR could get some separation. When he finally gave up and decided to toss it to a RB in the flat on the same side, he never reset his feet which remained lined up for the out-route. Instead, he just twisted his torso way around to the right and sure enough, the ball flew over the RB's head and out of bounds.

 

Frankly, I much prefer having to coach an overly bold QB to go to the check down more often to having to coach a timid QB out of going to the check down too often.

[Stank_Nasty]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

He was unquestionably Wyoming's best player and possibly their best Quarterback ever. That means little to his chances of NFL success. 

Taking a a bad team and winning with it might actually say something about his chances though. 

 

Im assuming you’re just being intentionally obtuse here though. 

[Luka]

3 hours ago, Mickey said:

 

From what I could see, he does fine on short throws and designed screens. Where he had trouble was when he was trying to go downfield but eventually had to decide to dump it off. It seemed like he doesn't always reset his feet for the check down and instead just relied on his ability to flip it out there with his arm alone. He also looked like he was waiting until the very last second before giving up on the downfield routes leaving him in a situation where he really had to rush the check down throw so that there was no time to reset his feet or otherwise  set up for the throw. I think those throws seem so easy that he likely doesn't think it all that important to pay much attention to technique. When the first or even the only read was a short pass such as on screen passes, I didn't see anything unusual in terms of accuracy. There was one particular play, I think it was against Colorado State, he was trying to hit an out-route on the right side about 7-8 yards downfield, it wasn't open but he waited and waited to see if the WR could get some separation. When he finally gave up and decided to toss it to a RB in the flat on the same side, he never reset his feet which remained lined up for the out-route. Instead, he just twisted his torso way around to the right and sure enough, the ball flew over the RB's head and out of bounds.

 

Frankly, I much prefer having to coach an overly bold QB to go to the check down more often to having to coach a timid QB out of going to the check down too often.

 

His biggest hurdle is going to be taking what he's given at the next level. I think we see the same things. His accuracy is actually pretty amazing when he sticks to his mechanics. This is most evident on plays where he has a clean pocket and isn't forced off his spot. He can throw a receiver open 40 yards down field. But when he gets forced out or isn't seeing anything downfield he waits until the last second and ends up throwing awkwardly with defenders hanging off of him. The scrambling backwards thing is also a habit that needs to be broken quickly. No yards is better than negative yards. A throw out of bounds is better than an interception. I understand at times you have to take risks but he doesn't seem to have routine plays very often lol.

 

If the Bills can correct this, look out.

[NoSaint]

He’s likely the longest shot to be successful but also the best shot to be great. He’s got tools no one else does but has to overcome some major issues. 

[buffalobloodfloridahome]

Allen is that rookie WR you take in your fantasy football draft in rd 4 because you think he could be a gem and your worried somebody else could snag him and is thinking like you. It either makes or breaks your draft.

[FearLess Price]

That was a cool article. Still not a fan of that pick. 

[Like A Mofo]

On 5/5/2018 at 7:50 AM, NoSaint said:

He’s likely the longest shot to be successful but also the best shot to be great. He’s got tools no one else does but has to overcome some major issues. 

 

 

I still think Darnold has the best shot at being great. Allen can be very good or be Leaf.

[Bill_with_it]

On 5/3/2018 at 9:55 AM, Like A Mofo said:

Question: I hard one draft expert on WGR a few days ago state 'The analytics suggest that Josh Allen will not become a franchise QB'

 

What analytics is he referring to? Anyone know where they are available?

 

Thanks in advance

He likely knows nothing. Or atleast doesnt ynderstand the context to which the stats were derived from.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 5/5/2018 at 5:12 AM, CSBill said:

 

Dilly! Dilly!

 

Should that be "Billy! Billy!"?  Too lame?

On 5/7/2018 at 8:27 AM, Like A Mofo said:

I still think Darnold has the best shot at being great. Allen can be very good or be Leaf.

 

I really don't think Leaf is a good comparator at all.  Allen can be very good or be (fill in a number of big-armed QB who worked hard and still just couldn't)

 

As I understand it, Ryan Leaf just had screwed up priorities.  Thought he was all that and a bag of chips having been hailed and feted all the way from high school.

Thought he could be a star NFL QB without really working to master his craft, then couldn't handle the "heat" of criticism.

 

Allen may not succeed, but he certainly wasn't having a praise-fest dunned into him from HS on.  He had to work his way up the food chain and he did.