Wayne Arnold Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 (edited) 22 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: SBNation had a write-up here: https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons The analytical writers know the what, but have no idea how to explain the why. It looks to me as if they're making predictions based on numbers but completely ignoring context. They're comparing the completion percentage of a guy at Wyoming to a guy at Oklahoma, which is absolutely absurd. College stats are more about the offensive system than the quarterback. Edited May 3, 2018 by Wayne Arnold
billspro Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Bangarang said: This is the part where we all try and convince ourselves that the numbers are flawed, or because Favre did it decades ago then so can Allen. The reality is that if Allen was drafted by the Jets then all the criticisms would be valid. But because he wears a blue jersey instead of green the sales pitch is on full power. Allen is a huge risk, no doubt. I had trouble evaluating him in the predraft process because he is the most talented QB I have ever seen. His 2017 tape was not good, but was also tough to evaluate because his WRs were not open and his line was brutal. Off of the tape I had him as the 6th ranked QB in this class. So I would not be shocked if he busts, but I would also not be surprised if he is a top 5 QB in the NFL. I don’t think there are any prospects comparable to him in the last 25 years. He will be an interesting case to see if someone can develop at the NFL level. It is rarely done, but if anyone is going to do it Allen will be the guy.
BillsFan4 Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 Just now, Kemp said: I had not heard that. Do you have a link concerning this? https://www.12up.com/posts/4792594-carson-wentz-is-only-an-eagle-because-of-analytics-and-the-browns http://www.theherdnow.com/radio/the-browns-missed-on-carson-wentz-because-analytics-cant-measure-franchise-qb-traits/ Also, I think its worth mentioning that Allen and Wentz had pretty similar college stats - https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/carson-wentz-1.html https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/josh-allen-7.html
Wayne Arnold Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, Bangarang said: This is the part where we all try and convince ourselves that the numbers are flawed, or because Favre did it decades ago then so can Allen. The reality is that if Allen was drafted by the Jets then all the criticisms would be valid. But because he wears a blue jersey instead of green the sales pitch is on full power. You're so wise and impartial! 1
GoBills808 Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said: The analytical writers know the what, but have no idea how to explain the why. It looks to me as if they're making predictions based on numbers but completely ignoring context. They're comparing the completion percentage of a guy at Wyoming to a guy at Oklahoma, which is absolutely absurd. College stats are more about the offensive system than the quarterback. I agree. While I think the concept of analytics in football is still in its relative infancy and will be refined going forward to increase its predictive capacity, right now it's just a lot of numbers and not all of them are relevant, or mean what the people analyzing them think they do. A good example are those NFL NextGen stats that people are trying to draw conclusions from based on positional tracking monitors in players' pads. In time they will have synthesized that raw data into meaningful statistics, but they haven't figured it out yet which is why NextGen stats are IMO fairly useless in terms of predictive analysis. Football isn't a game that lends itself easily to quantification. It's so complex and interconnected that what's referred to these days by the stat guys as the 'eye test' (always in the pejorative) is probably still the functional equivalent of today's NFL analytics, although I expect that to change in the next 5 years.
Bangarang Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Wayne Arnold said: You're so wise and impartial! I have had my opinion of Allen for a little while now and literally the only thing that has happened is that we drafted him. There’s no new information since then that will force me to change that opinion. Once there is then I will. 1
Billsflyer12 Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 30 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: SBNation had a write-up here: https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons I have posted this and a couple of other write-ups, not sure a single person has actually opened and read them. Was wondering the percentage of posters here like or believe in data and stats, looks like most don't care.
GoBills808 Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 Just now, Billsflyer12 said: I have posted this and a couple of other write-ups, not sure a single person has actually opened and read them. Was wondering the percentage of posters here like or believe in data and stats, looks like most don't care. It's sort of a cursory analysis of some stats that I'm not really sold on, but it's definitely worth a look.
Billsflyer12 Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said: The analytical writers know the what, but have no idea how to explain the why. It looks to me as if they're making predictions based on numbers but completely ignoring context. They're comparing the completion percentage of a guy at Wyoming to a guy at Oklahoma, which is absolutely absurd. College stats are more about the offensive system than the quarterback. Is this Context? Good news is there are a couple of comparable that say it may work. Almost all say it won't. Edited May 3, 2018 by Billsflyer12
Wayne Arnold Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bangarang said: I have had my opinion of Allen for a little while now and literally the only thing that has happened is that we drafted him. There’s no new information since then that will force me to change that opinion. Once there is then I will. That's great. But not everyone formed their opinion before the draft. Many wait until after the draft to study players. 2 minutes ago, Billsflyer12 said: Is this Context? Good news is there are a couple of comparable that say it may work. Almost all say it won't. No, that's not context. Just more random numbers.
blacklabel Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 1 hour ago, cba fan said: Analytics does not to my knowledge factor in the fact Josh Allen throws the ball much further in the air and it effects his accuracy. Can't find it back but a link showed Allen throws the ball further than others in the air before it hits a receiver. He sounds like a downfield thrower and we have wanted that for years. You are correct in your assessment that he pushed the ball downfield more than any other QB that was coming up this year. The more low-percentage throws you attempt, the worse your completion percentage becomes. But at least his coaches were trusting him enough to even dial up those kinds of throws. Bills are looking to capitalize on the traditional traits he possesses and hope to minimize his chances to make mistakes. Wait and see, it's all we can do. Someone also mentioned simple similarities to Wentz and some snarkasm that since they are physically similar that Allen will end up like Wentz. I get it. Another similarity they share is that they both ran the same offense in college. Numbers only go so far. There are things that can't be measured that can tip the scales one way or the other. People pegged Johnny Manziel to be a franchise guy based off numbers but the things that couldn't be measured (his attitude and approach toward the game) were the determining factor in his lack of NFL success. Perhaps the things that can't be measured in Allen will be what pushes him to success. That's the hope anyway. 1
MILFHUNTER#518 Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 3 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said: we sure could use saviorpeterman and his "next gen" stats right now. He is "quite concerned" recording minutes in a high level board meeting
GoBills808 Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 47 minutes ago, Billsflyer12 said: Is this Context? Good news is there are a couple of comparable that say it may work. Almost all say it won't. Looks exactly like Flacco. I'd take that.
BuffaloHokie13 Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Looks exactly like Flacco. I'd take that. A more mobile Flacco was one of the comps I arrived at. 1
Stank_Nasty Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Looks exactly like Flacco. I'd take that. with the exception of a 4 game stretch in 2012 flacco has had an extremely average career that has heavily relied on his surrounding team being superb to win games.... I get that he won that super bowl but if allen turns out to be that sort of qb we better pray to god all the other units of our team are clicking on ALL cylinders at ALL times. 1
Dr. K Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 Wow. It really looks, on paper, that Allen is headed for bust territory. It's worrying that whenever people start discussing him, the arguments in his favor sound increasingly desperate. Hope is not a plan.
GoBills808 Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said: with the exception of a 4 game stretch in 2012 flacco has had an extremely average career that has heavily relied on his surrounding team being superb to win games.... I get that he won that super bowl but if allen turns out to be that sort of qb we better pray to god all the other units of our team are clicking on ALL cylinders at ALL times. He's not a world beater but for me you aren't giving him enough credit here. Flacco's never had much to rely on as far as weapons go, I think the average age of his #1 wideout over the course of his career is something pretty ridiculous, and the Ravens' philosophy has been run-heavy for some time now. I'd be very satisfied if we peg Allen to Flacco with upside.
Wayne Arnold Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 15 minutes ago, Dr. K said: Wow. It really looks, on paper, that Allen is headed for bust territory. It's worrying that whenever people start discussing him, the arguments in his favor sound increasingly desperate. Hope is not a plan. Amazing arm talent, world-class athleticism and great character and work ethic sounds increasingly desperate? 2
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