Josh Allen: Analytics

[Wayne Arnold]

43 minutes ago, metzelaars_lives said:

For what it’s worth, yes, Wyoming’s defense was the best in the MWC last year and will be again this year.  Was a little surprised to hear Brandon Beane say that this Wyoming team won’t have any players on pro rosters, when a) they already do (Rico Gafford, CB- UDFA on Tennessee) and b) they’re gonna have a BUNCH in the next two years.  All on defense though.  For whatever that’s worth.

 

Some of you continue to confuse offense and defense. What does Wyoming's defense have to do with Allen?

 

Btw, Wyoming's defense was 3rd in the MWC last year. Not the best. 

 

Yards Per Game

 

11. San Diego State

16. Fresno State

21. Wyoming

 

 

 

Edited May 10, 2018 by Wayne Arnold

[Mat68]

Makes sense that Wyoming had a good defense.  Allen would get a lead and they would bleed the clock.  In terms of numbers and remove efficency ratings.  Compare Wentz and Allen overall career stats.  In 15 less games in a similar offense Allen threw for 49 less yards and 1 fewer TD.  His accuraccy and efficency will be discussed for the rest of his career here.  Those that didnt like Taylor because he was risk adverse are going to be talking out of both sides of their mouths come football season.  Allen is going to drive the ball down the field.  He is going to put up yards, Tds and Ints.  His Qb rating and Qbr are going to be less than Taylors was.

 

  Unlike, Manuel, Locker and Boller Allen is a natural thrower.  The other guys where cluncky mechanics built throwers.  Great athletes that do everything your supposed to do but not natural at it.  Like a guy who has a bunch of golf training and swing coaches vs a guy with a natural swing.  He picks up a ball and throws it its natural.  There are some things to clean up to be more consistent but its not a full rebuild from the ground up like they all were.

[BuffaloHokie13]

13 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Makes sense that Wyoming had a good defense.  Allen would get a lead and they would bleed the clock.  In terms of numbers and remove efficency ratings.  Compare Wentz and Allen overall career stats.  In 15 less games in a similar offense Allen threw for 49 less yards and 1 fewer TD.  His accuraccy and efficency will be discussed for the rest of his career here.  Those that didnt like Taylor because he was risk adverse are going to be talking out of both sides of their mouths come football season.  Allen is going to drive the ball down the field.  He is going to put up yards, Tds and Ints.  His Qb rating and Qbr are going to be less than Taylors was.

 

  Unlike, Manuel, Locker and Boller Allen is a natural thrower.  The other guys where cluncky mechanics built throwers.  Great athletes that do everything your supposed to do but not natural at it.  Like a guy who has a bunch of golf training and swing coaches vs a guy with a natural swing.  He picks up a ball and throws it its natural.  There are some things to clean up to be more consistent but its not a full rebuild from the ground up like they all were.

Man, that sounds like an incredibly familiar approach...

[Mat68]

6 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Man, that sounds like an incredibly familiar approach...

Juat look at the bowl game.  150 3 tds first quarter run, run, pass punt the last 3 quarters.  

[colin]

allen is gonna light the nfl on fire and put it out with highlight reel gasoline.

 

 

[metzelaars_lives]

57 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Some of you continue to confuse offense and defense. What does Wyoming's defense have to do with Allen?

 

Btw, Wyoming's defense was 3rd in the MWC last year. Not the best. 

 

Yards Per Game

 

11. San Diego State

16. Fresno State

21. Wyoming

 

 

 

Nothing.  It has nothing to do with it whatsoever.  They also allowed the least PPG in the MWC and led the nation in turnovers.  They were a hell of a good defense.  And they're almost all returning this year!  I'm sorry, I can't help myself- it's just worlds colliding when people are all of a sudden talking about my favorite college team on a website for my favorite NFL team.     

Edited May 10, 2018 by metzelaars_lives

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Trust me, I was the biggest homer ever.  I found a ton of positives in Trent, JP, & EJ.  I thought Rosen was the safer, better pick.  So I’m very cautious at getting too excited about a very raw prospect.  

 

Please prove me wrong Josh!

Im just wondering how safe of a pick Rosen will end up being when that fragile frame of his takes another concussion and he decides there is more to life then football.

[dickleyjones]

Analytics is useful in that it can tell us general things about a group of players (qbs for example). So if I had to sign 1000 QBs and I used a strategy of favouring those with high completion %, then in the long run I should be better off.  Assuming of course that completion % is not a spurious result and is not affected by confounding variables that are driving up that correlation.

 

On the flipside, there are pitfalls using population level correlations to make decisions about individuals. Maybe you can know something about averages from a group, but that doesn't tell you much about the particular QB in front of you.

 

[Wayne Arnold]

12 minutes ago, metzelaars_lives said:

Nothing.  It has nothing to do with it whatsoever.  They also allowed the least PPG in the MWC and led the nation in turnovers.  They were a hell of a good defense.  And they're almost all returning this year!  I'm sorry, I can't help myself- it's just worlds colliding when people are all of a sudden talking about my favorite college team on a website for my favorite NFL team.     

 

Very good defense. Craig Bohl is a good defensive-minded head coach and you're lucky to have him. The offense that's currently run, however, is terribly outdated and his OC Vigen is likely way in over his head.

[BB@Shooter]

On 5/3/2018 at 3:56 PM, Stank_Nasty said:

agree to disagree I guess.... I've watched him play plenty and saw a middling qb that could make some timely clutch throws on occasion but usually didn't win if he didn't have his defense clicking on all cylinders. 

 

i'm not big on that going forward if that's what we are getting.

I saw Allen play in person at least 20 times. The offense they ran was a run first offense. He won 8 games two years in a row. That doesn't happen at Wyoming very often. I can tell you have not actually watched Allen as much as you say, so excuse me for believing you don't know as much as you would like to assume.

When I tell you Allen was our best back, trust me. Our line was horrible as our backs were also. Our OC is one of the worst ones I have ever seen. He didn't even  begin to try to build the offense around the talent of Allen. Instead he ran the ball on the first two downs and put Allen in 3rd and long most series. Then the opposing team would play an 8 man front against us and blitz the crap out of us. And our OC didn't even give Allen a way to make the defense pay for blitzing or overpaying the run game. We hardly ever ran pass paterns across the middle,  and our fullback didn't get one carry until our bowl game.

Our receivers always ran their patterns short of the 1st down markers, quit on their routes, couldn't handle average throws, and could get no seperation. The reason Allen came back for his junior year is because of loyalty, and he knew he needed more experience. Allen is a winner. He was 8-3 in the games he played this year. Probably would have been 10-3 if he didn't get hurt. He could have set out our bowl game and didn't. He could have not thrown at the combine like Darnold, but didn't.  He could have only played one series at the Senior Bowl like Mayfield, but he doesn't have anything to hide. In fact he wasn't happy with the way he played in the 1st half and told the coaching staff he wanted to play in the 2nd half. Where he then tore it up. So you obviously don't know Allen, and I highly doubt you saw more than a few highlight clips, and definitely the clips where they tried to say he wasn't worth a crap. Allen doesn't care about personal stats, he cares about winning. And he is a good character kid regardless. Whoever released those tweets on him held them back until the last minute. They should be thankful I don't know who they are because it was a chickenshit deal. Allen and Buffalo will be a good match. I just wished he had a year to sit and watch. I doubt it happens though.

Edited May 10, 2018 by BB@Shooter

[BB@Shooter]

1 hour ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Very good defense. Craig Bohl is a good defensive-minded head coach and you're lucky to have him. The offense that's currently run, however, is terribly outdated and his OC Vigen is likely way in over his head.

Not likely in over his head, he is. Look at where his offense ranks most every year, at the bottom. Bohls philosophy is get a lead, run the ball. Run clock. Shorten the game. The bad part is that Vigen hasn't figured out how to move the chains other than punting. Vigen is not a D1 OC.

 

[Wayne Arnold]

57 minutes ago, BB@Shooter said:

Not likely in over his head, he is. Look at where his offense ranks most every year, at the bottom. Bohls philosophy is get a lead, run the ball. Run clock. Shorten the game. The bad part is that Vigen hasn't figured out how to move the chains other than punting. Vigen is not a D1 OC.

 

 

I was trying to be nice.  

 

I will say though that the Wyoming offense improved a lot over the course of the season in 2017, so he should at least get a little credit for that.

[Fred Clause]

On 5/4/2018 at 5:46 PM, Kemp said:

 

Josh Allen was the 73rd ranked passer in college, last season.

 

This is quite possibly the most useless chart in the whole thread. The quality of the line picking up the blitz is a variable not covered by this stat. Baker wasn’t trying to push the ball down field as much, of course his stat would be higher. So many other variables not taken into account, this is useless...

[Tyrod's friend]

On 5/3/2018 at 3:18 PM, Billsflyer12 said:

If true, he is terrible at it.

I'm not a huge guy for Allen, but to use this sort of information screams that you don't have a grasp on what statistics and analytics have to do with one another. 

These are numbers, not analysis.

9 hours ago, Fred Clause said:

This is quite possibly the most useless chart in the whole thread. The quality of the line picking up the blitz is a variable not covered by this stat. Baker wasn’t trying to push the ball down field as much, of course his stat would be higher. So many other variables not taken into account, this is useless...

Honestly. 

14 hours ago, BB@Shooter said:

I saw Allen play in person at least 20 times. The offense they ran was a run first offense. He won 8 games two years in a row. That doesn't happen at Wyoming very often. I can tell you have not actually watched Allen as much as you say, so excuse me for believing you don't know as much as you would like to assume.

When I tell you Allen was our best back, trust me. Our line was horrible as our backs were also. Our OC is one of the worst ones I have ever seen. He didn't even  begin to try to build the offense around the talent of Allen. Instead he ran the ball on the first two downs and put Allen in 3rd and long most series. Then the opposing team would play an 8 man front against us and blitz the crap out of us. And our OC didn't even give Allen a way to make the defense pay for blitzing or overpaying the run game. We hardly ever ran pass paterns across the middle,  and our fullback didn't get one carry until our bowl game.

Our receivers always ran their patterns short of the 1st down markers, quit on their routes, couldn't handle average throws, and could get no seperation. The reason Allen came back for his junior year is because of loyalty, and he knew he needed more experience. Allen is a winner. He was 8-3 in the games he played this year. Probably would have been 10-3 if he didn't get hurt. He could have set out our bowl game and didn't. He could have not thrown at the combine like Darnold, but didn't.  He could have only played one series at the Senior Bowl like Mayfield, but he doesn't have anything to hide. In fact he wasn't happy with the way he played in the 1st half and told the coaching staff he wanted to play in the 2nd half. Where he then tore it up. So you obviously don't know Allen, and I highly doubt you saw more than a few highlight clips, and definitely the clips where they tried to say he wasn't worth a crap. Allen doesn't care about personal stats, he cares about winning. And he is a good character kid regardless. Whoever released those tweets on him held them back until the last minute. They should be thankful I don't know who they are because it was a chickenshit deal. Allen and Buffalo will be a good match. I just wished he had a year to sit and watch. I doubt it happens though.

A fine, fine post and worth being repeated and read again. 

Makes me wonder if some of my thoughts need to be reconsidered. 

[Stank_Nasty]

16 hours ago, BB@Shooter said:

I saw Allen play in person at least 20 times. The offense they ran was a run first offense. He won 8 games two years in a row. That doesn't happen at Wyoming very often. I can tell you have not actually watched Allen as much as you say, so excuse me for believing you don't know as much as you would like to assume.

When I tell you Allen was our best back, trust me. Our line was horrible as our backs were also. Our OC is one of the worst ones I have ever seen. He didn't even  begin to try to build the offense around the talent of Allen. Instead he ran the ball on the first two downs and put Allen in 3rd and long most series. Then the opposing team would play an 8 man front against us and blitz the crap out of us. And our OC didn't even give Allen a way to make the defense pay for blitzing or overpaying the run game. We hardly ever ran pass paterns across the middle,  and our fullback didn't get one carry until our bowl game.

Our receivers always ran their patterns short of the 1st down markers, quit on their routes, couldn't handle average throws, and could get no seperation. The reason Allen came back for his junior year is because of loyalty, and he knew he needed more experience. Allen is a winner. He was 8-3 in the games he played this year. Probably would have been 10-3 if he didn't get hurt. He could have set out our bowl game and didn't. He could have not thrown at the combine like Darnold, but didn't.  He could have only played one series at the Senior Bowl like Mayfield, but he doesn't have anything to hide. In fact he wasn't happy with the way he played in the 1st half and told the coaching staff he wanted to play in the 2nd half. Where he then tore it up. So you obviously don't know Allen, and I highly doubt you saw more than a few highlight clips, and definitely the clips where they tried to say he wasn't worth a crap. Allen doesn't care about personal stats, he cares about winning. And he is a good character kid regardless. Whoever released those tweets on him held them back until the last minute. They should be thankful I don't know who they are because it was a chickenshit deal. Allen and Buffalo will be a good match. I just wished he had a year to sit and watch. I doubt it happens though.

maybe go back and look at convo I was having.... I was in the middle of debate about joe flacco.... i'm cool with allen, bro.

 

good talk.

1 hour ago, Tyrod's friend said:

I'm not a huge guy for Allen, but to use this sort of information screams that you don't have a grasp on what statistics and analytics have to do with one another. 

These are numbers, not analysis.

Honestly. 

A fine, fine post and worth being repeated and read again. 

Makes me wonder if some of my thoughts need to be reconsidered. 

right..... other than the fact that it was directed at me and he didn't realize my statements were about joe flacco.

Edited May 11, 2018 by Stank_Nasty

[billspro]

16 hours ago, BB@Shooter said:

I saw Allen play in person at least 20 times. The offense they ran was a run first offense. He won 8 games two years in a row. That doesn't happen at Wyoming very often. I can tell you have not actually watched Allen as much as you say, so excuse me for believing you don't know as much as you would like to assume.

When I tell you Allen was our best back, trust me. Our line was horrible as our backs were also. Our OC is one of the worst ones I have ever seen. He didn't even  begin to try to build the offense around the talent of Allen. Instead he ran the ball on the first two downs and put Allen in 3rd and long most series. Then the opposing team would play an 8 man front against us and blitz the crap out of us. And our OC didn't even give Allen a way to make the defense pay for blitzing or overpaying the run game. We hardly ever ran pass paterns across the middle,  and our fullback didn't get one carry until our bowl game.

Our receivers always ran their patterns short of the 1st down markers, quit on their routes, couldn't handle average throws, and could get no seperation. The reason Allen came back for his junior year is because of loyalty, and he knew he needed more experience. Allen is a winner. He was 8-3 in the games he played this year. Probably would have been 10-3 if he didn't get hurt. He could have set out our bowl game and didn't. He could have not thrown at the combine like Darnold, but didn't.  He could have only played one series at the Senior Bowl like Mayfield, but he doesn't have anything to hide. In fact he wasn't happy with the way he played in the 1st half and told the coaching staff he wanted to play in the 2nd half. Where he then tore it up. So you obviously don't know Allen, and I highly doubt you saw more than a few highlight clips, and definitely the clips where they tried to say he wasn't worth a crap. Allen doesn't care about personal stats, he cares about winning. And he is a good character kid regardless. Whoever released those tweets on him held them back until the last minute. They should be thankful I don't know who they are because it was a chickenshit deal. Allen and Buffalo will be a good match. I just wished he had a year to sit and watch. I doubt it happens though.

 

This is an amazing post, I’m so glad you called that guy out.

[Stank_Nasty]

8 minutes ago, billspro said:

 

This is an amazing post, I’m so glad you called that guy out.

dude..... how many times do I have to say this..... go back and read up on the debate I was having. it was about flacco. the post he "called out" was me talking about flacco and somebodies comp of allen and flacco.

 

i'm fine with josh allen. 

Edited May 11, 2018 by Stank_Nasty

[Dr. Who]

5 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

dude..... how many times do I have to say this..... go back and read up on the debate I was having. it was about flacco. the post he "called out" was me talking about flacco and somebodies comp of allen and flacco.

 

i'm fine with josh allen. 

So you think Josh Allen is Joe Flacco ?

[Stank_Nasty]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

So you think Josh Allen is Joe Flacco ?

lol..... I hope not.

[greeneblitz]

my eyes roll at wgrs analyitics obsession