Why the Allen project may be different

[Batman1876]

Many fans, myself included were fearful of the Bills drafting a project QB. We've all see these projects fail more often than not and trap the franchise in the "maybe next year they'll put it together" cycle. But as we know the Bills picked the project and it leads to the question, Why take the risk? As I see it there are two possible answers to that question. The first is that Bills leadership let their Ego get in the way of good decision making, they believed that they are special ans can succeed where everyone else has failed. Its a pessimistic view and seemingly the most popular opinion. But there is another option, that they saw something different about this project. What they saw that was different, size, smarts and story. 

 

Size- This is the one we've heard the most about, hes tall, sturdy, fast and has a big arm.  It's easy to lump him in with others who fit that description but to do so misses out on how big his arm is.  His release is as fast as Aaron Rodgers and his throw velocity is the fastest ever recorded.  Its not simply that he has a big arm its that he has the biggest arm.  Its reasonable to assume that elite physical talent will help in development. 

 

Smarts- Again this one is talked about regularly.  Allen did well on the wonderlic and maintained a solid GPA. Those who have worked with him say he is a smart kid who picks stuff up fast and his whiteboard work at the combine was reportedly very good.  This should aid his development as he is asked to do more in the NFL and as he learns to better diagnose and respond to what the defense is doing. 

 

Story- this one is talked about least and may play a big role in the divide regarding Allen. Before looking at his story lets look at the most common path to the draft that the 95% of QBs take. Early on they attend increasingly more prestigious QB camps, they transfer to go to an Elite High school and focus only on football and then are recruited to an elite program. in other words by the time most project QBs get to the NFL they have already had the best coaching available for 10-12 years. All that coaching has tapped their potential quite a bit. The result of this is projects who develop very little, because the 12 years of coaching they've already had has left little room for growth.  Allen on the other hand did not attend elite QB camps, went to a D5 high school where he was a multi sport athlete, went to a JUCO and then a football program about as elite as the UB Bulls. In other words Allen hasn't had his talent tapped into by good coaching before.  He is a well of untapped potential. Far from the kids who grow very little when they hit the NFL Allen should grow quite a bit. I think this untapped potential is what GMs were seeing that the internet scouts weren't. 

 

So in the end he's still a project, he's still a risk. However when you look at the total situation there is more room for hope than there is with most project QBs. He has talent worth tapping into and for the first time he'll be getting the elite coaching to help him do just that. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 2, 2018 by Batman1876

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

He might be different because he is different. 

 

No no need to rationalize anything at this point. Hope for the best.  We won’t know anything for sure until September 2019

[billspro]

He made a huge jump working with Palmer this offseason. If he has a similar jump in training camp and year 1 we are going to have a very special franchise QB. 

 

He he also has our DNA. This team will have an identity this year. We are going to maximize our skill with hard work and when the other team takes a play off we will capitalize. This team is going to be very hard to beat at home. 

[Elite Poster]

23 minutes ago, billspro said:

He made a huge jump working with Palmer this offseason. If he has a similar jump in training camp and year 1 we are going to have a very special franchise QB. 

 

He he also has our DNA. This team will have an identity this year. We are going to maximize our skill with hard work and when the other team takes a play off we will capitalize. This team is going to be very hard to beat at home. 

 

DNA is the dumbest thing about our team. Look what happened to Zay. There is no DNA. There is work ethic and talent. 

 

Would this organization ever draft the best damn player on this team, Shady? Probably not. Take that DNA and shove it. Brady is an a-hole and he will have won more chips than McDNA can dream of. 

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

17 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

 

DNA is the dumbest thing about our team. Look what happened to Zay. There is no DNA. There is work ethic and talent. 

 

Would this organization ever draft the best damn player on this team, Shady? Probably not. Take that DNA and shove it. Brady is an a-hole and he will have won more chips than McDNA can dream of. 

you don't sound like a process-truster. in fact you sound like a heretic! 

[Success]

I think we found our Qb.  You can probably add 5% to that much cited accuracy just by giving him real receivers and a line.  

 

I don’t really see him as a project.  He played in a pro style offense.  I think he’ll be the biggest surprise in camp.

[davspo]

As hard as it is going to be to watch, (especially if Mccarron does not do well), the best thing to do is let him sit, watch and learn until at least next year.  

 

[fergie's ire]

1 hour ago, Batman1876 said:

  His release is as fast as Aaron Rodgers and his throw velocity is the fastest ever recorded.  Its not simply that he has a big arm its that he has the biggest arm. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah, there is a clip that I saw that made me think we just might have something really special.  Sorry....I have been looking casually at a number of highlight videos and I don't remember which it was...but think it was from the Senior Bowl.  Anyway, it was one of those throws from about 30 yards out to the middle of the end zone.  It's kind of throw that over the past many years as a Bills fan I would have to beg  to "get there....get there" while defensive backs are closing from all angles.  In the video of Allen it also seems instantaneous between when he decides to throw and the ball is in the receiver's hands.

[Thurman#1]

IMO most of that is justification, particularly the physical part. Every project guy has things to recommend him. Otherwise he wouldn't be picked.

 

To me, the thing that makes me a bit hopeful is that one of his biggest negatives, accuracy problems, has already been improved with a focus on his mechanics. Again, we have no way of knowing this will stick, but especially if he isn't asked to play this year, he'll have a ton of time to groove the improvements in his habit patterns. That gives me some hope, that he's already well along the path of development.

 

The other thing that gives me hope is that they do seem to see that giving him a year off or more should be their first and best option. If he's somehow way ahead of schedule, they seem like they might play him. I hope that doesn't happen. It's pretty much universal that he needs time. And a lot of project guys who get picked early don't get that time and it hurts them. The Bills seem willing to wait, and I think that improves his chances.

 

I'd rather they'd picked Rosen. But I have some hope. I'm not convinced, and I think those who are are drinking Kool-Aid. But hopeful? Yeah.

[All_Pro_Bills]

Absolutely agree with the OP.  To say Allen needs to be developed is correct but look at what kind of development he's received to this point relative to the other 3 tops QB's in this years draft.  How much do you think Wyoming spends on their football program compared to Oklahoma, USC, and UCLA?  What is the quality of staff and facilities for training and development?  It's like Rocky V where Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield have been training with Ivan Drago at his elite training and sports facility and Allen has been working with Rocky picking up logs and rocks in cold and desolate Siberia.  Who do you expect to be better prepared?  Now he's on the Bills roster where the training, learning, and development provided is going to be at professional levels.  So now talent, intelligence, drive, and effort will take over.  I'm going to trust the judgement of our GM/HC at this point as they had the stones to reach for great and not settle for good..  

Edited May 2, 2018 by All_Pro_Bills

[Herb62]

5 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

To say Allen needs to be developed is correct but look at what kind of development he's received to this point relative to the other 3 tops QB's in this years draft.  How much do you think Wyoming spends on their football program compared to Oklahoma, USC, and UCLA?  What is the quality of staff and facilities for training and development?  It's like Rocky V where Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield have been training with Ivan Drago at his elite training and sports facility and Allen has been working with Rocky picking up logs and rocks in cold and desolate Siberia.  Who do you expect to be better prepared?  Now he's on the Bills roster where the training, learning, and development provided is going to be at professional levels.  So now talent, intelligence, drive, and effort will take over.  I'm going to trust the judgement of our GM/HC at this point.  

What makes you think the Bills are better than Wyoming or as good as UCLA or USC ; (

[Last Guy on the Bench]

2 hours ago, Batman1876 said:

 

Story- this one is talked about least and may play a big role in the divide regarding Allen. Before looking at his story lets look at the most common path to the draft that the 95% of QBs take. Early on they attend increasingly more prestigious QB camps, they transfer to go to an Elite High school and focus only on football and then are recruited to an elite program. in other words by the time most project QBs get to the NFL they have already had the best coaching available for 10-12 years. All that coaching has tapped their potential quite a bit. The result of this is projects who develop very little, because the 12 years of coaching they've already had has left little room for growth.  Allen on the other hand did not attend elite QB camps, went to a D5 high school where he was a multi sport athlete, went to a JUCO and then a football program about as elite as the UB Bulls. In other words Allen hasn't had his talent tapped into by good coaching before.  He is a well of untapped potential. Far from the kids who grow very little when they hit the NFL Allen should grow quite a bit. I think this untapped potential is what GMs were seeing that the internet scouts weren't. 

 

So in the end he's still a project, he's still a risk. However when you look at the total situation there is more room for hope than there is with most project QBs. He has talent worth tapping into and for the first time he'll be getting the elite coaching to help him do just that. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Good post. I was definitely among the disappointed when his name was called, but there is a lot to like about the kid. And like many, the more I look, the more optimistic I feel (or at least can talk myself into feeling).

 

IF he's going to be good, I think your point three on story is key. No player falls into an entirely predictable, pre-set pattern. Every player has his own journey. But in Allen's case, the journey really is an outlier, making it even less predictable. No one would have said that Kurt Warner - going undrafted, cut in training camp, not from a big conference, kicking around the Arena League and NFL Europe - would be a hall of famer but there he is.

 

What gives me the most hope about Josh is the tenacity and will and love for football that has kept him going through being unrecruited out of high school, JUCO, the 1,000 emails, heading to the middle of nowhere based on one offer and glad to do it, etc. This kid is driven and disciplined. He was a late bloomer physically. He might be a late bloomer statistically on the field too.

 

Combine that with the fact that he is a PHREAK. I wish he had thrown for more yards and more completions, but man, his best throws are so much better than anyone else's best throws from a physical standpoint. He doesn't just have a big arm. He might have the best arm I've ever seen - and I've been watching football since the early 1970s.

 

Edited May 2, 2018 by Last Guy on the Bench

[All_Pro_Bills]

7 minutes ago, Herb62 said:

What makes you think the Bills are better than Wyoming or as good as UCLA or USC ; (

The distinctions between professional sports vs. college.  Figures I've seen indicate USC spends around $31M and UCLA spends around $27M.  Professional sports teams like the Bills are billion dollar operations.  And we finally have a combination of a GM/HC with a vision and a strategy that know what they are doing with an owner that is willing to spend and commit whatever resources necessary to produce a winner.

Edited May 2, 2018 by All_Pro_Bills

[ProcessAccepted]

1 hour ago, Elite Poster said:

 

DNA is the dumbest thing about our team. Look what happened to Zay. There is no DNA. There is work ethic and talent. 

 

Would this organization ever draft the best damn player on this team, Shady? Probably not. Take that DNA and shove it. Brady is an a-hole and he will have won more chips than McDNA can dream of. 

 

Just a thought, you may find this helpful ...

 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

1 hour ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

you don't sound like a process-truster. in fact you sound like a heretic! 

 

[ctk232]

2 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

He might be different because he is different. 

 

No no need to rationalize anything at this point. Hope for the best.  We won’t know anything for sure until September 2019

Agreed - tho I'd honestly prefer we not find out until September 2020 at the earliest - if he's such a project and needs the right development, why start him this year? Don't get me wrong - giving up three picks to get him I'd like to see results now just like everyone else. But realistically, we're all just hoping for the best.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

2 hours ago, Elite Poster said:

 

DNA is the dumbest thing about our team. Look what happened to Zay. There is no DNA. There is work ethic and talent. 

 

Would this organization ever draft the best damn player on this team, Shady? Probably not. Take that DNA and shove it. Brady is an a-hole and he will have won more chips than McDNA can dream of. 

 

[atlbillsfan1975]

People who want to point out all Allen’s flaws and say he is a project need to remind themselves of some of the great quarterbacks and how they improved. Every great quarterback had some years that were better than others. Allen is going to be special. 

High wonderlic score, best physical attributes, and shows capability  to receive coaching. That doesn’t mean he will be in Canton but I also don’t see him as a bust barring injuries. 

[K-9]

2 hours ago, Batman1876 said:

Many fans, myself included were fearful of the Bills drafting a project QB. We've all see these projects fail more often than not and trap the franchise in the "maybe next year they'll put it together" cycle. But as we know the Bills picked the project and it leads to the question, Why take the risk? As I see it there are two possible answers to that question. The first is that Bills leadership let their Ego get in the way of good decision making, they believed that they are special ans can succeed where everyone else has failed. Its a pessimistic view and seemingly the most popular opinion. But there is another option, that they saw something different about this project. What they saw that was different, size, smarts and story. 

 

Size- This is the one we've heard the most about, hes tall, sturdy, fast and has a big arm.  It's easy to lump him in with others who fit that description but to do so misses out on how big his arm is.  His release is as fast as Aaron Rodgers and his throw velocity is the fastest ever recorded.  Its not simply that he has a big arm its that he has the biggest arm.  Its reasonable to assume that elite physical talent will help in development. 

 

Smarts- Again this one is talked about regularly.  Allen did well on the wonderlic and maintained a solid GPA. Those who have worked with him say he is a smart kid who picks stuff up fast and his whiteboard work at the combine was reportedly very good.  This should aid his development as he is asked to do more in the NFL and as he learns to better diagnose and respond to what the defense is doing. 

 

Story- this one is talked about least and may play a big role in the divide regarding Allen. Before looking at his story lets look at the most common path to the draft that the 95% of QBs take. Early on they attend increasingly more prestigious QB camps, they transfer to go to an Elite High school and focus only on football and then are recruited to an elite program. in other words by the time most project QBs get to the NFL they have already had the best coaching available for 10-12 years. All that coaching has tapped their potential quite a bit. The result of this is projects who develop very little, because the 12 years of coaching they've already had has left little room for growth.  Allen on the other hand did not attend elite QB camps, went to a D5 high school where he was a multi sport athlete, went to a JUCO and then a football program about as elite as the UB Bulls. In other words Allen hasn't had his talent tapped into by good coaching before.  He is a well of untapped potential. Far from the kids who grow very little when they hit the NFL Allen should grow quite a bit. I think this untapped potential is what GMs were seeing that the internet scouts weren't. 

 

So in the end he's still a project, he's still a risk. However when you look at the total situation there is more room for hope than there is with most project QBs. He has talent worth tapping into and for the first time he'll be getting the elite coaching to help him do just that. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think what you describe in the Story paragraph is interesting and I'd bet that NFL personnel execs feel much the same way. His floor may be the lowest at present, but given his lack of exposure to top notch coaching and his prodigious physical and athletic gifts, his ceiling may be the highest of the bunch. For instance, as much as I love Rosen as a prospect, I'm not sure he can improve very much from where he is now. I think Allen and Darnold stand to gain the most in terms of room to grow. 

[Sky Diver]

Everyone young QB is a project.