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Football Outsiders: 2018 Draft Report Card Report


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FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2018 Draft Report Card Report

2018 Draft Report Card Report

by Cale Clinton

The 2018 NFL draft has officially come and gone, and in its wake all we're left with are some hot takes. These fine young men haven't even put on pads yet, but draft experts have already come out to tell the nation how all 32 teams fared this past weekend.

We've taken the time to take grades from the most prominent sports sources and the best football minds and done all the reading for you. This article will examine the highest and lowest graded teams, as well as which teams created the most disparity in the minds of draft analysts.

Our panel looks a little different this year. Steve Silverman wrote up Bleacher Report's draft grades this year, and Andy Benoit has replaced Chris Burke at Sports Illustrated. We've also expanded our panel to include Nate Davis of USA Today and Chad Reuter of NFL.com.

Our panel now consists of:

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Evan Silva hates the Bills.  His knowledge of football is more tied to being a fan and fantasy pundit, rather than scout or personnel guy.  Sometimes a fan’s flame burns bright enough, to make their sentiments echo a little louder.  Other times, you get Silva.  A young guy, who writes nice stuff, but is truly inexperienced in player personnel and transitional competencies.  In other words...   A poor man’s Mel Kiper, with heavier affiliation to the Patriots and Jets, but without nearly the film study acumen or non-subjective perspective.  But I’ve heard through reputable sources that he is an avid sorter of recycled goods, so there’s that.

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IMO the only way you should say a guy is certain to bust is character red flags.  Jamarcus Russell / Ryan Leaf / Johnny Manziel, they had character red flags that said they would not be willing to put the necessary work in to succeed.  No such red flags exist on Allen, so I just think it's dumb the amount of "experts" saying he's got no chance.

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36 minutes ago, DFT said:

But I’ve heard through reputable sources that he is an avid sorter of recycled goods, so there’s that.

 

He has an unpaid position with Waste Management.  He is VP of his home recycling.  Apparently it's a prestigious appointment.

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1 hour ago, Chuck Wagon said:

IMO the only way you should say a guy is certain to bust is character red flags.  Jamarcus Russell / Ryan Leaf / Johnny Manziel, they had character red flags that said they would not be willing to put the necessary work in to succeed.  No such red flags exist on Allen, so I just think it's dumb the amount of "experts" saying he's got no chance.

You make a good argument.  But there’s the other side of the coin in what statistically is the hardest position in professional sports, to  be good at.  The “Try hard but still fail” folks, like Losman and EJ Manuel, we’re both picked to bust, in their drafts.  Both were notorious workers, but in the end, both just could not have their talent align with their competencies.  Where Allen gives me hope though, is through what he’s done to develop in the offseason and his wonderlic assessment being so high.  To say comparing Allen to Losman or Manuel is a stretch is an understatement.   Allen’s upside is just insane.  But sometimes that elevator just won’t go to that top floor no matter how hard you push the button.   

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I really hate mock drafts and draft grades.  The truth of the matter is that nobody knows and at best it takes about 3 to 5 years to see what impact a draft class has had on a franchise.  For the Bills everything comes down to Allen.  If he really is “the guy” this draft is likely to be seen as one of the best ever especially if they get quality play out of at least a couple of players in the balance of their picks.

 

 

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