Mikey152 Posted May 1, 2018 Posted May 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said: A QB can have all of those attributes, but what do they mean if the game is too fast and complex such that correct decisions aren't made that allow them to be leveraged into consistent and sustained success. Funny how all of Allen's warts are magically disappearing now that he's been drafted by the Bills. You're making an assumption based on little actual evidence. What evidence, aside from statistics which we are clearly demonstrating are multi-variable, is there that Allen cant handle the mental aspects? He set his own protections, took snaps from under center and has a developed play action game. What other QB in this class can say that?
dave mcbride Posted May 1, 2018 Posted May 1, 2018 (edited) 33 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said: I completely disagree with this article. Old school stats like yards and completion percentage are the one that look bad for Allen. Saying Mayfield is gritty, a winner, has the it factor...that's old school crap. Mayfiled's amazing completion percentage also involved throwing a million force and bubble screens. That is an old school stat that says very little. Parcells' rules about being a senior blah blah is old school. To me, Allen is the analytics pick with a little bit of old school. He is the prototype. Despite the fact that he struggled a bit at school, the analytics numbers project him to the guy who can be really special (released time, velocity, touch...all those sports science numbers). I think Siimmons' message here is all wrong. Indeed, in baseball, the new analytics fad is ... wait for it ... a measurable athletic skill: exit velocity ( https://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/05/sports/baseball/baseballs-latest-craze-its-like-rocket-science.html ). The same can be said for the ridiculously high demand for bullpen pitchers throwing 95 or above. Josh Allen has one of the (if not the) strongest arms ever in terms of his passes' "exit velo." Will that translate to excellence? Who knows, but I'd rather have the skill than not have it. In sports, athletic ability actually matters. Call me crazy for saying that. Edited May 1, 2018 by dave mcbride 1
26CornerBlitz Posted May 1, 2018 Author Posted May 1, 2018 Just now, Mikey152 said: You're making an assumption based on little actual evidence. What evidence, aside from statistics which we are clearly demonstrating are multi-variable, is there that Allen cant handle the mental aspects? He set his own protections, took snaps from under center and has a developed play action game. What other QB in this class can say that? Little evidence? He played two seasons at Wyoming. Despite all of what you stated he did, he bailed from the pocket too often and showed poor footwork by his own admission that caused inaccuracy that he was worked with Jordan Palmer to correct. Since you asked Rosen did all of what is required at the NFL level and did it on a far more advanced level with consistency.
Lurker Posted May 1, 2018 Posted May 1, 2018 Just now, dave mcbride said: Indeed, in baseball, the new analytics fad is ... wait for it ... a measurable athletic skill: exit velocity ( https://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/05/sports/baseball/baseballs-latest-craze-its-like-rocket-science.html ). The same can be said for the ridiculously high demand for bullpen pitchers throwing 95 or above. Josh Allen has one of the (if not the) strongest arm ever in terms of his passes' "exit velo." In sports, athletic ability actually matters. Call me crazy for saying that. Well, a pitcher trying to consistently hit the corner of the plate strikes me as a lot different than a QB who has to understand what the defense is doing, make plays on the fly when his protection is breaking down and anticipate the open receiver before the pattern has even been run. It's more than physical, it's mental processing and quick decision making under stress as well...
GoBills808 Posted May 1, 2018 Posted May 1, 2018 I start the Browns' analytics era in 2013 when they hired Sashi Brown. During his tenure they went 15-65. The Bills were 39-41. Hooray analytics.
Mikey152 Posted May 1, 2018 Posted May 1, 2018 1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said: Little evidence? He played two seasons at Wyoming. Despite all of what you stated he did, he bailed from the pocket too often and showed poor footwork by his own admission that caused inaccuracy that he was worked with Jordan Palmer to correct. Since you asked Rosen did all of what is required at the NFL level and did it on a far more advanced level with consistency. How is footwork mental? At all? As for bailing from the pocket? bull ****. They moved the pocket quite a bit and had a bunch of designed runs. Outside of that, he didn't move the pocket unless protection broke down and more than any other QB.
26CornerBlitz Posted May 1, 2018 Author Posted May 1, 2018 Just now, GoBills808 said: I start the Browns' analytics era in 2013 when they hired Sashi Brown. During his tenure they went 15-65. The Bills were 39-41. Hooray analytics. It's rather sad if you're comparing yourself to the Browns as any kind of measure of success.
dave mcbride Posted May 1, 2018 Posted May 1, 2018 Just now, Lurker said: Well, a pitcher trying to consistently hit the corner of the plate strikes me as a lot different than a QB who has to understand what the defense is doing, make plays on the fly when his protection is breaking down and anticipate the open receiver before the pattern has even been run. It's more than physical, it's mental processing and quick decision making under stress as well... It's both, and elite physical skills help. I'd rather have them than not. I have my concerns about Allen, but one bit of info that I do like is that his release (not the throw itself) is lightning-quick.
Mikey152 Posted May 1, 2018 Posted May 1, 2018 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Lurker said: Well, a pitcher trying to consistently hit the corner of the plate strikes me as a lot different than a QB who has to understand what the defense is doing, make plays on the fly when his protection is breaking down and anticipate the open receiver before the pattern has even been run. It's more than physical, it's mental processing and quick decision making under stress as well... It's funny how football is only more complicated when it suits your argument. What the defense does, what his receiver does, what his offensive line does, what the weather does...all of these things are completely out of a quarterback's control and ALL of them factor into the outcome of a play, which is what statistics are based on. That is 100% the reason why stats are a silly way to evaluate performance, and the idea that someone who never even played the sport has the ability to identify, understand and isolate the variables in order to assess players is just...silly. I see it happen all the time at work. Metrics designed by people that understand metrics but not the process they are measuring. 10/10 times it leads to garbage metrics that only look good on paper. Edited May 1, 2018 by Mikey152 1
GoBills808 Posted May 1, 2018 Posted May 1, 2018 Just now, 26CornerBlitz said: It's rather sad if you're comparing yourself to the Browns as any kind of measure of success. I'm comparing the two franchises referenced in the article by contrasting their records against the purported value of using an 'analytical' approach to team-building. ...you understand that, right?
26CornerBlitz Posted May 1, 2018 Author Posted May 1, 2018 Just now, Mikey152 said: How is footwork mental? At all? As for bailing from the pocket? bull ****. They moved the pocket quite a bit and had a bunch of designed runs. Outside of that, he didn't move the pocket unless protection broke down and more than any other QB. Footwork isn't mental, but he has technical flaws that need correction as he has admitted. Getting emotional about it doesn't make you right. No one is talking about designed runs. Obfuscate and pretend he's perfect if you like. No sense in me debating any further until the Bills' blinders come off. Good day.
MrEpsYtown Posted May 1, 2018 Posted May 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: Indeed, in baseball, the new analytics fad is ... wait for it ... a measurable athletic skill: exit velocity ( https://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/05/sports/baseball/baseballs-latest-craze-its-like-rocket-science.html ). The same can be said for the ridiculously high demand for bullpen pitchers throwing 95 or above. Josh Allen has one of the (if not the) strongest arm ever in terms of his passes' "exit velo." Will that translate to excellence? Who knows, but I'd rather have the skill than not have it. In sports, athletic ability actually matters. Call me crazy for saying that. Yeah this is where I am at. Things like spin rate etc. Those are all based on athletic ability and talent.
26CornerBlitz Posted May 1, 2018 Author Posted May 1, 2018 Just now, GoBills808 said: I'm comparing the two franchises referenced in the article by contrasting their records against the purported value of using an 'analytical' approach to team-building. ...you understand that, right? The Browns weren't trying to win the last few seasons as evidenced by the trading off veteran players while collecting picks. You know that right? So your record comparison makes zero sense.
Mikey152 Posted May 1, 2018 Posted May 1, 2018 1 minute ago, MrEpsYtown said: Yeah this is where I am at. Things like spin rate etc. Those are all based on athletic ability and talent. And those kinds of analytical metrics make perfect sense...because unlike statistical analysis, which measures team performance, these are actually individual player focused and allow you to compare apples to apples performance.
Lurker Posted May 1, 2018 Posted May 1, 2018 Just now, dave mcbride said: It's both, and elite physical skills help. I'd rather have them than not. I have my concerns about Allen, but one bit of info that I do like is that his release (not the throw itself) is lightning-quick. I agree. I just hope he can fix the mechanical flaws. I just don't understand when his coaching staff, the announcers, the team mascot and the beer vendor are saying "set your feet, don't over-stride, don't throw off your back foot, don't just use your arm" that he consistently continued to do those things anyway? Even at the Senior Bowl practices he had some of the same throwing problems. When he calmed down in the second half of that game, after realizing that he had some pass protection, he looked a lot better. But I'm worried about the "deer in the headlights" Josh Allen that I saw in so much of his 2017 game video. Will that guy remember his coaching, or will he revert back to an over-reliance on his strong arm? Training camp can't come soon enough...
Mikey152 Posted May 1, 2018 Posted May 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said: Footwork isn't mental, but he has technical flaws that need correction as he has admitted. Getting emotional about it doesn't make you right. No one is talking about designed runs. Obfuscate and pretend he's perfect if you like. No sense in me debating any further until the Bills' blinders come off. Good day. Who is getting emotional? We are arguing on a message board. Nobody is saying he is perfect. I'm just tired of all the invented flaws and misinformation parading under the guise of "analytics". Basically, a standard stat is chosen, massaged to make it seem "advanced", and then it is attributed to a single cause without any kind of fact checking, regression testing, etc.
MrEpsYtown Posted May 1, 2018 Posted May 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Mikey152 said: And those kinds of analytical metrics make perfect sense...because unlike statistical analysis, which measures team performance, these are actually individual player focused and allow you to compare apples to apples performance. Ok yeah I was thinking I was crazy for a second. To me Josh Allen is the analytics pick. The old school stats don't like him. Statistics like RBIs, homers, TD passes, completion percentage are not analytics in my mind. Those are old school.
keepthefaith Posted May 1, 2018 Posted May 1, 2018 1 hour ago, 26CornerBlitz said: I disagree. Fitz makes horrid decisions on a fairly regular basis as an NFL QB and he's very intelligent. Yes, there are a lot of inputs that go into split second decision making. Raw intelligence only goes so far.
GoBills808 Posted May 1, 2018 Posted May 1, 2018 Just now, 26CornerBlitz said: The Browns weren't trying to win the last few seasons as evidenced by the trading off veteran players while collecting picks. You know that right? So your record comparison makes zero sense. Every NFL team 'trades off veteran players' while trying to collect picks. If you think that's evidence that the Browns 'weren't trying to win' we can end this conversation. Over the past four years they've used first round picks on Johnny Manziel, Justin Gilbert, Corey Coleman, Cameron Erving. Analytics may or may not have relevance in today's NFL, but using the Browns of all teams to validate it is asinine.
26CornerBlitz Posted May 1, 2018 Author Posted May 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Mikey152 said: Who is getting emotional? We are arguing on a message board. Nobody is saying he is perfect. I'm just tired of all the invented flaws and misinformation parading under the guise of "analytics". Basically, a standard stat is chosen, massaged to make it seem "advanced", and then it is attributed to a single cause without any kind of fact checking, regression testing, etc. Nonsense. You just don't like the independent conclusions from multiple sources (who have qualified backgrounds) that were drawn well before he was drafted by the Bills. Beyond any analytics, the film doesn't not hide his obvious flaws from the games he actually played in.
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