The Ringer: How the 2018 Draft Proved That the Modern NFL Doesn’t Exist

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I heard they get a bonus for every negative Bills comment.

Starting to think 26 gets a bonus for every negative Josh allen article he posts.

[Zac]

19 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Check out this post.

 

 

 

It doesn't really change my opinion based on what i saw on tape.  Placement doesn't factor in how open is WRs are, their ability to get off the line, or his OLs ability block.  

 

His WRs didn't get open, period. They didn't get anything remotely resembling open.  Look at what Oregon's DC said about playing Wyoming.  It's much easier to process what's going on and make decisions when players are running open.

Edited May 1, 2018 by Zac

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

It's something to consider as part of an entire collection of information.  Some of the QBs who have scored the highest haven't been very good QB in the NFL. I think it's mostly irrelevant with prospects taking multiple practice tests. 

Has anyone you know of scored well on the Wonderlic and then failed due to the mental aspects of the game though? I mean like Fitz, for example, his issues aren't mental.

[Chuck Wagon]

11 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I thought it was a pretty fair piece, but I thought he was wrong about one thing: Barkley. Bear in mind that I think that the Giants should have taken Darnold , but Barkley isn't just a RB. He's by all accounts a terrific receiver, with Marshall Faulk being the comparison. If you're gonna write a piece like this, you better look at a guy like Faulk's receiving numbers in his prime (1998-2001). In 1999-2000, he had nearly 2000 receiving yards and 13 TD receptions. 

 

I don't think there's an argument that Allen is very clearly a pick based upon potential.  If the areas he needs to show major improvement weren't there, he would have been a consensus #1 and one of the highest evaluated QBs in years.

 

However, the same is true for any of these QBs.  Where I have a problem is people like Clark or Evan Silva who either imply or flat out state that Allen will not be able to make those improvements but Rosen will certainly overcome his concerns.

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Has anyone you know of scored well on the Wonderlic and then failed due to the mental aspects of the game though? I mean like Fitz, for example, his issues aren't mental.

 

I disagree. Fitz makes horrid decisions on a fairly regular basis as an NFL QB and he's very intelligent. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

Just now, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

I disagree. Fitz makes horrid decisions on a fairly regular basis as an NFL QB and he's very intelligent. 

I think Fitz makes pretty good decisions, he just has slightly better than a rag arm which gets him in trouble.

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I think Fitz makes pretty good decisions, he just has slightly better than a rag arm which gets him in trouble.

 

It's a combination of both from what I have seen.  If  he does not know his limitations as a QB after all of these years in the league that's decision making as part of the equation. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

3 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

It's a combination of both from what I have seen.  If  he does not know his limitations as a QB after all of these years in the league that's decision making as part of the equation. 

Regardless, it's safe to say the arm isn't an issue for our guy. Any other names come to mind?

[NewEra]

7 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

I don't think there's an argument that Allen is very clearly a pick based upon potential.  If the areas he needs to show major improvement weren't there, he would have been a consensus #1 and one of the highest evaluated QBs in years.

 

However, the same is true for any of these QBs.  Where I have a problem is people like Clark or Evan Silva who either imply or flat out state that Allen will not be able to make those improvements but Rosen will certainly overcome his concerns.

Especially considering one of Rosens biggest concerns is staying healthy.  2 concussions  last year. Shoulder issues.  Slighter build. Huge nose might even stick out of his face mask and get broken.

 

you can fix footwork.  You can’t fix frail and a battered brain

[Heitz]

1 hour ago, jo39416 said:

"However, just six picks later came Wyoming’s Josh Allen, whose entire existence seems to indicate that scouting has not advanced particularly far. I like the Bills a lot. I think their front office is forward-thinking and that they have a great coaching staff. Allen, though, is an inaccurate college passer whose key trait—throwing the ball a long way—is used very rarely among current NFL offenses."

 

Did you actually read the article, or just assume it was bad?  The comments were very fair - I think Allen actually has a great chance to succeed, but yeah by almost all advanced analytics take, the pick makes little sense. 

 

What's interesting is that this is an article talking about both "on-the-ground"' and "analytical" scouting, that then goes on to infer that the Bills made their QB decision based scouting that is "not advanced", but then clearly uses the analytics argument to say Allen is "inaccurate".

 

As has been mentioned in several articles / videos - completion percentage is NOT the same as accuracy.  Accuracy is ball placement, completion percentage is how many are caught...

 

 

 

 

[26CornerBlitz]

24 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Starting to think 26 gets a bonus for every negative Josh allen article he posts.

 

[Chuck Wagon]

10 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Especially considering one of Rosens biggest concerns is staying healthy.  2 concussions  last year. Shoulder issues.  Slighter build. Huge nose might even stick out of his face mask and get broken.

 

you can fix footwork.  You can’t fix frail and a battered brain

 

 

Rosen could get lit up in preseason and really start to wonder if it's worth it.  He could watch Bradford suffer yet another season ending injury first hand.  We could learn even more about brain trauma in football and he can really say it's time to move on.

 

If Baker succeeds he will be the only current franchise QB from an "Air Raid" system in the Big 12.  I think that's pretty staggering.  A major Power 5 conference that has no produced a single current "franchise" level QB.  That's a HUGE dice roll from a franchise that's passed on the most exciting young QBs in the league in each of the past few drafts.  But that's ignored because he's a fun guy.

 

One USC QB has been successful in the past 20+ years, despite nearly every one of them getting a tremendous amount of hype.  Darnold turns the ball over at a prolific rate and wasn't even a QB 5 years ago.

 

They all have concerns.  I just don't understand why anyone would take a firm stance for or against any of these 4. But the reality is in the "expert" world one doesn't get paid for saying "any of these guys could be good or bad, I don't really know" so Allen, the guy who toiled in obscurity in Laramie on CBS Sports channel 862 gets to be the whipping boy.

 

And I wouldn't be shocked to see Lamar Jackson as the best of the bunch in 4 years.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, jo39416 said:

"Allen, though, is an inaccurate college passer whose key trait—throwing the ball a long way—is used very rarely among current NFL offenses."

 

This is a myth. Arm strength is not just about throwing the ball far. It's more about beating defenders in tight window throws. It isn't enough to have a strong arm obviously, but having an insanely talented arm like Allen's allows you to make throws all over the field that no one else in the league can make. I'm shocked that anyone who covers football for a living would say arm strength isn't an important trait. It just isn't the most important trait.

[Chuck Wagon]

10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is a myth. Arm strength is not just about throwing the ball far. It's more about beating defenders in tight window throws. It isn't enough to have a strong arm obviously, but having an insanely talented arm like Allen's allows you to make throws all over the field that no one else in the league can make. I'm shocked that anyone who covers football for a living would say arm strength isn't an important trait. It just isn't the most important trait.

 

Arm strength is overrated until it isn't.  Allen can physically do things a guy like Baker Mayfield can't.  But he's unquestionably a project.

[BuffaloHokie13]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

This is a myth. Arm strength is not just about throwing the ball far. It's more about beating defenders in tight window throws. It isn't enough to have a strong arm obviously, but having an insanely talented arm like Allen's allows you to make throws all over the field that no one else in the league can make. I'm shocked that anyone who covers football for a living would say arm strength isn't an important trait. It just isn't the most important trait.

The sports science guy was making this point in the Eisen interview. That the difference on a 20 yard out (or something to that effect) is like 6", which is a big deal.

[Lurker]

11 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Regardless, it's safe to say the arm isn't an issue for our guy. Any other names come to mind?

 

Not adjusted for arm strength, but here are some Wonderlic comparables...

 

Blaine Gabbert     (42 score)

Ryan Nassib         (41)

Brian Griese          (39)

Colin Kaepernick (38)

Akili Smith            (37)

Drew Bledsoe      (36)

Matt Leinart         (35)

Christian Ponder (35)

Ryan Tannehill     (34)

Johnny Manziel   (32)

Joey Harrington   (32)

JP Losman           (31)

Trent Edwards      (31)

Brady Quinn          (29)

Rex Grossman     (29)

Mark Sanchez      (28)

 

30 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Starting to think 26 gets a bonus for every negative Josh allen article he posts.

 

Even more prevalent among TSW...

 

 

[HappyDays]

29 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Has anyone you know of scored well on the Wonderlic and then failed due to the mental aspects of the game though? I mean like Fitz, for example, his issues aren't mental.

 

What about Gabbert? Great arm strength and physical stature, and scored higher on the Wonderlic than Allen did.

[plenzmd1]

42 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I thought it was a pretty fair piece, but I thought he was wrong about one thing: Barkley. Bear in mind that I think that the Giants should have taken Darnold , but Barkley isn't just a RB. He's by all accounts a terrific receiver, with Marshall Faulk being the comparison. If you're gonna write a piece like this, you better look at a guy like Faulk's receiving numbers in his prime (1998-2001). In 1999-2000, he had nearly 2000 receiving yards and 13 TD receptions. 

The argument is more about the difference between picking him at 2..and picking another RB with similar skills in later rounds. But the difference in a pass rusher, or QB picked early vs the later rounds is perceived to be much greater. Factor in the money you are paying a RB picked that high..not just on his first contract but on his second now that his base is so high, and the injury rates at the position, and spending a #2 from a value and analytics perspective just does not add up. 

 

In truly comes down to what Gettlemen said..if this kid does not make the HOF, this was a bad pick. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

What about Gabbert? Great arm strength and physical stature, and scored higher on the Wonderlic than Allen did.

Certainly a valid example. And interestingly enough, his QB coach his rookie year was Dirk Koetter. Not exactly a poor choice.

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, plenzmd1 said:

The argument is more about the difference between picking him at 2..and picking another RB with similar skills in later rounds. But the difference in a pass rusher, or QB picked early vs the later rounds is perceived to be much greater. Factor in the money you are paying a RB picked that high..not just on his first contract but on his second now that his base is so high, and the injury rates at the position, and spending a #2 from a value and analytics perspective just does not add up. 

 

In truly comes down to what Gettlemen said..if this kid does not make the HOF, this was a bad pick. 

I get all of that and have read the relevant articles, but my point is that he's not simply a RB when it comes to projections. A bell-cow RB who can also be a 75 catch/10 ypc/6 receiving TDs receiver is a rare talent and should not be compared to Leonard Fournette.