Josh Allen - Game Film Links

[Lurker]

9 hours ago, billspro said:

 

 

 

 

These games in 2016 will get you excited about Allen. You can see him with below average college talent (although much better than his team this year). A lot of the concerns like bailing out of the pocket to soon, you don't see in these game because he is not having to try to extend plays because his WRs are not terrible. I am very excited to see what he does with NFL talent. 

 

The best games were not on youtube. He looked great in the four games below against good opponents. 

http://draftbreakdown.com/2017/07/16/josh-allen-vs-san-diego-state-2016-2/ - vs #13 Boise state (1st win against them in 20 years)

http://draftbreakdown.com/2017/07/09/josh-allen-vs-san-diego-state-2016/- vs San Diego state (wins to go undefeated at home)

http://draftbreakdown.com/2017/05/23/josh-allen-vs-northern-illinois-2016/ vs Northern Illinois

http://draftbreakdown.com/2017/07/17/josh-allen-vs-san-diego-state-2016-mwcc/ vs San Diego State (Championship game, show how competitive this kid is)

 

 

Here are two other games that were solid on youtube. 

 

 

 

 

Much, much better game video in 2016.   Thanks for posting this!

 

Now I can worry about all the bad habits he developed in 2017, and how he'll have to break them...

[Kelly the Dog]

16 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

Much, much better game video in 2016.   Thanks for posting this!

 

Now I can worry about all the bad habits he developed in 2017, and how he'll have to break them...

Man, can he sling it. I know of course he needs to be accurate. But what an arm. I think he's accurate enough and it's mostly the breakdown of mechanics. 

[Lurker]

1 minute ago, Kelly the Dog said:

Man, can he sling it. I know of course he needs to be accurate. But what an arm. I think he's accurate enough and it's mostly the breakdown of mechanics. 

 

As someone said, he plays too much hero ball.   And he takes too many hits.   But the 2016 video does show some remarkable throws.   

 

Quite the lump of clay...

[HappyDays]

11 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

Man, can he sling it. I know of course he needs to be accurate. But what an arm. I think he's accurate enough and it's mostly the breakdown of mechanics. 

 

By my eyes he is more accurate when he throws 10+ yard passes than when he throws swing passes. When he has to use his full arm strength he is pretty accurate, but his touch passes are a major work in progress. Corner and seam routes should be a substantial portion of our passing offense. I would be scared to call too many screens this year. In general I see too much area code accuracy on the tape but I can't say if it's because of mechanics or just a natural deficiency he has. Hopefully mechanical issues that can be fixed.

Edited May 2, 2018 by HappyDays

[No Cease Fires]

 

1 hour ago, Lurker said:

 

Much, much better game video in 2016.   Thanks for posting this!

 

Now I can worry about all the bad habits he developed in 2017, and how he'll have to break them...

 

I think the 2017 tapes show better mechanics actually.

[Lurker]

Just now, No Cease Fires said:

 

 

I think the 2017 tapes show better mechanics actually.

 

 In 2017 I saw a lot more throws with just his arm.   In 2016, I saw more stepping into the throw.    A big part of that was his O-line.   But he seemed more out of control in 2017 than in 2016. 

 

We all see different things, but I'm happy the discussion is now more centered on the videos than just "trust the process..."

[billspro]

6 minutes ago, No Cease Fires said:

 

 

I think the 2017 tapes show better mechanics actually.

 

Which is a good thing. The reason 2017 wasn’t as productive was because he was on an awful team. He improved a lot at the senior bowl. I’m really excited to see if he takes another jump in training camp.

 

If Allen had a statistically similar season in 2017 with an improved completion percentage he would have been a lock to go 1st. We may have gotten lucky he was on such a bad team.

[No Cease Fires]

8 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

 In 2017 I saw a lot more throws with just his arm.   In 2016, I saw more stepping into the throw.    A big part of that was his O-line.   But he seemed more out of control in 2017 than in 2016. 

 

We all see different things, but I'm happy the discussion is now more centered on the videos than just "trust the process..."

 

I saw a lot more late throws in 2016. But yeah he definitely could step into them a bit more in 2016. 

 

[billspro]

56 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Iowa tapes no good. Wasn't terrible but wasn't good either. 

 

I really think the talent gap is to great to find any useful evaluation from that game. 

[theRalph]

Every Allen hater needs to see these. My God, his receivers dropped 3 passes in the 1st quarter alone of the Oregon Opener. Well done on analysis.

[thunderingsquid]

 

[bills11]

One thing you can immediately see from watching him is that his actually throwing mechanics are solid.

His footwork was sloppy like most college qbs but he has a natural throwing motion which is often overlooked...

go back and look at Ej manuels college film and you see a guy with an awkward unnatural throwing mechanics who had a high completion 

percentage due to the offence he was in. Josh has show the ability to make touch throws and obviously the throws that require zip. the offence he was 

in did not really lend itself to those completion boosting plays that allow players with absolutely no shot at the nfl to complete 65%+ of their passes in college.

So the 56% completion number doesnt bother me..the placement on the majority of his throws is good enough.

Its interesting to note 56% is exactly the career completion of john elway..during his nfl career just a funny stat

Edited May 2, 2018 by bills11

[wppete]

Excellent post ? Thanks for posting. 

[Rocky Landing]

These links are great. Thank you for posting these, Dom. Every fan of this team on this site should spend some time watching these.

[BuffaloHokie13]

11 hours ago, billspro said:

 

Which is a good thing. The reason 2017 wasn’t as productive was because he was on an awful team. He improved a lot at the senior bowl. I’m really excited to see if he takes another jump in training camp.

 

If Allen had a statistically similar season in 2017 with an improved completion percentage he would have been a lock to go 1st. We may have gotten lucky he was on such a bad team.

His WRs might have been better at the senior bowl...

[John from Riverside]

11 hours ago, billspro said:

 

Which is a good thing. The reason 2017 wasn’t as productive was because he was on an awful team. He improved a lot at the senior bowl. I’m really excited to see if he takes another jump in training camp.

 

If Allen had a statistically similar season in 2017 with an improved completion percentage he would have been a lock to go 1st. We may have gotten lucky he was on such a bad team.

There are some posts i have seen that talk of the Senior Bowl and wanting to compare to EJ Manuel because he also played well at the Senior Bowl.

 

The reason I have a problem with this comparison....EJ Manuel played on a good team...they had good recruiting and he had quality to throw to, running ball, protecting him, etc....guys that were DRAFTED

 

Josh Allen played last year with a crap team.......and he had better players the year prior to that which is why his stat numbers were much better in 2016 (they were not great players....but better) then he goes to the Senior Bowl and is playing with GOOD players......and puts on a show.

 

To me this is a positive thing.   He is still a wait and see for  me......but I find hope in that.

[Lurker]

I wonder if the polarization on Allen comes from draft sites that only looked at his 2017 video? (which, admittedly, is what I initially looked at as well)

 

The 2016 video is much more encouraging.   He looks like a legit first round prospect based off of those games.   Whereas the 2017 video shows a guy who might be more of a  day two pick.   Even adjusting for the lack of talent Wyoming had last year, the bad mechanics and poor decision making in 2017 are concerning.   

 

Still, the entire body of work over two years is illuminating, and I'm hopeful the Bills got it right this time.    Bring on training camp... 

[st pete gogolak]

Pre-draft, really hadn't seen much Allen tape but really hated the pick.  Ideally, Arizona outbids us at #7, takes Allen and we make the mini-trade with either 49'ers or Raiders to make sure we get Rosen.  I thought Rosen was a much safer pick and that Allen's bust potential was sky-high.  Post-draft (still not watching much film), my thinking was that Beane and McDermott rationalized the pick this way (1) Rosen's concussion and injury history must have been a HUGE concern; and (2) being enamored of all things Carolina, they're going to run a Carolina offense and plug in Cam Newton lite to run it (Newton's career NFL completion percentage is less than 59% by the way).  This, of course, continues Buffalo's infatuation with strong armed QB's with big hands (Losman, Manuel, Jones, etc.) and ignores the two most important attributes of a modern NFL quarterback - accuracy and ability to quickly process information on the field. 

 

After looking at the film however (thanks OP!), I definitely have an open mind and I can see what Beane and McDermott are thinking.  The accuracy isn't anywhere near as bad as I thought it would be, yes the footwork needs work and yes 1/3 of Wyoming's pass plays were total jailbreaks (he'll immediately feel comfortable behind the Bills' OL).  Sit him for a year, spend next offseason beefing up the O-Line and the receiving corps and you may have something here.

[Commish]

Excellent write-up - you put more thought and time into this one piece than Schopp and Bulldog [or White and Simon] have put into QB evaluations in the past year.