State of the Union

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...EXCELLENT job and fair assessment bud........pretty damn REFRESHING to finally read a thread that is not littered with doom 'n gloom or "fine whines".....and I most certainly agree that McBeane is well into the 2019 Plan........he knows roughly where we'll be drafting, who are possible draftees, RFA's, UFA's, etc......and with $85+ mil in the cookie jar, he'll be shoppin'.......stay tuned...........

[DC Tom]

They're that thin at MLB?  A very raw rookie, and a nearly as raw sophomore PS member?

 

The best thing I can say about that pair is that they haven't lost their Luster.

[MJS]

Nice job. I agree with most if not all of it.

 

Let's see what happens. It seems like the Bills are moving in the right direction. Hopefully Allen is everything the front office expects.

[boyst]

What about the office staff and all them?  It's time Brandon goes.  I don't care where he goes, down the Hall maybe, whatever.  Just don't need him creeping around the Bills anymore.  Whaley is gone. Overdorf is gone. Brandon needs to be admonished and shamed.

[Haslett_Stomp]

Nice work.  This is one of the most well thought out posts I have read on this board in a long time.

[Uncle Joe]

42 minutes ago, Boyst62 said:

What about the office staff and all them?  It's time Brandon goes.  I don't care where he goes, down the Hall maybe, whatever.  Just don't need him creeping around the Bills anymore.  Whaley is gone. Overdorf is gone. Brandon needs to be admonished and shamed.

Ask and ye shall receive

 

:

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, Boyst62 said:

What about the office staff and all them?  It's time Brandon goes.  I don't care where he goes, down the Hall maybe, whatever.  Just don't need him creeping around the Bills anymore.  Whaley is gone. Overdorf is gone. Brandon needs to be admonished and shamed.

Prophetic....

[boyst]

16 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Prophetic....

I know right!  This should be on the HALL of Fame.

37 minutes ago, Uncle Joe said:

Ask and ye shall receive

 

:

It's like I knew something

[BuffaloTX]

5 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

I think the team is setup well long term.  My worry is more about the short term.   In my opinion, there is a real chance the Bills end up with the first overall pick in 2019. 

Fantastic!

[The Jokeman]

Minter signed with the Jets earlier this month http://m.newyorkjets.com/news/article-7/Jets-Sign-LB-Kevin-Minter/ed1fb3f5-5541-4fe2-8785-0added63bf5d

[Kelly the Dog]

5 hours ago, Boyst62 said:

What about the office staff and all them?  It's time Brandon goes.  I don't care where he goes, down the Hall maybe, whatever.  Just don't need him creeping around the Bills anymore.  Whaley is gone. Overdorf is gone. Brandon needs to be admonished and shamed.

I thought Overdork was still around, no?

[boyst]

16 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

I thought Overdork was still around, no?

He went to just work for trivia Wilson foundation I thought

[Kelly the Dog]

4 minutes ago, Boyst62 said:

He went to just work for trivia Wilson foundation I thought

Maybe.  He's still listed on the team website as Senior VP of Administration. 

[Fadingpain]

On April 30, 2018 at 1:24 PM, elijah said:

I despise Schopp.  One of the worst sports analysts I've ever listened too. 

 

One time I walked around New Era at a game this past season asking people if they listened to GR and their thoughts about Schopp if they did, not a single person had a positive comment on Schopp. 

So your data sample size was what? 5? It must be true.  

 

On behalf of Schopp, I'm hanging up on you now! 

 

[Green Lightning]

I don't disagree on the OL but I think our LB situation is shaky at best. We also have to hope Vontae is close to what he was. Receiver corp is poor and god forbid Shady gets hurt. A lot has to go right on both sides of the ball for 8 wins this year imo.

[elijah]

12 hours ago, Green Lightning said:

I don't disagree on the OL but I think our LB situation is shaky at best. We also have to hope Vontae is close to what he was. Receiver corp is poor and god forbid Shady gets hurt. A lot has to go right on both sides of the ball for 8 wins this year imo.

In the scenario of shady getting hurt this season would become a complete train wreck and disastrous. 

 

Thats probably the the worst case scenario.

[Magox]

Fantastic write up.  Don't agree with everything but all-in-all it was well-thought-out. 

[baskingridgebillsfan]

I look at the roster and I think this is a better roster than last year.  Then I listen to the wacky kids on wgr and they tell me this team will stink this year. 

I agree wins are a funny thing as it is often when you play a team not who you play but consider this;\

1 The receivers are better.  A healthy Benjamin is a huge upgrade over anything they had last year. Could Zay be worse ? add some nice end of the roster rookies too

great unit no , not even good but better than last year. 

2. Dline They added star , Phllips and murphy it has to be better.  

3.  Edmounds even as a rookie over preston so Linebackers will be better, in addition Miliano is starting the entire year as opposed to half a year . 

4. D backs.  Gains or Davis we shall see. plus some added rookie talent the unit should be as good as last year 

5.  Running backs  Ivory over any one last year.  I also have a feeling GIllispe is back once the pats cut him 

6 Tight end same group 

7 now it comes to the qb.  Full disclosure I think Taylor is an great athlete but a below average qb.  A lot of his athletic plays are a result of his own short comings.  I think A.j will be a slight up grade.  I have know idea what Allen would do as a rookie but I know he has more talent than they Bills have had since Kelly

8 and you have been waiting for the oline.  The tackles will have the same starters plus newhouse and a year older and stronger McDermott.  Inside , in the past Groy for wood hasn't been a bad result.  Yes Richie is gone but you add Teller and a healthy Miller to the unit or Grow plays guars if Bodine is up for the task at center.  The unit is not be as good but shouldn't be an issue either . 

Like I said wins are funny  and this team isn't ready to challenge for anything at this point, with that said the roster is stronger and the arrow is pointing up 

 

If they can add two players next off season , a dominant pass rusher and number wide receiver they will be ready to compete with any team 

 

 

On ‎4‎/‎30‎/‎2018 at 12:15 PM, elijah said:

CURRENT ROSTER

QUARTERBACK

A.J. McCarron

Josh Allen, Nathan Peterman

 

RUNNINGBACK

LeSean McCoy

Chris Ivory, Taiwan Jones, Tavaris Cadet, Marcus Murphy

 

WIDE RECEIVER

Kelvin Benjamin

Zay Jones

Jeremy Kerley, Andre Holmes, Rod Streater, Kaelin Clay, Ray-Ray McCloud, Brandon Reilly, Quan Bray, Malachi Dupre, Austin Proehl

 

TIGHT END

Charles Clay

Nick O'Leary,

Logan Thomas, Khari Lee, Keith Towbridge, Jason Croom

 

OFFENSIVE LINE

Dion Dawkins

Vladimir Ducasse

Russell Bodine

John Miller

Jordan Mills

Ryan Groy, Marshall Newhouse, Wyatt Teller

Conor McDermott, De'Ondre Wesley, Aaron Green, Josh James, Adam Redmond

 

DEFENSIVE END

Jerry Hughes

Trent Murphy

Shaq Lawson, Eddie Yarbrough

Terrence Fede, Owamagbe Odighizuwa

 

DEFENSIVE TACKLE

Kyle Williams 

Star Lotulelei

Harrison Phillips, Adolphus Washington

Rickey Hatley, Marquavius Lewis, Tenny Palepoi

 

OUTSIDE LINEBACKER

Lorenzo Alexander

Matt Milano

Ramon Humber, Tanner Vallejo, Deon Lacey, Julian Stanford

 

MIDDLE LINEBACKER

Tremaine Edmunds

Xavier Woodson-Luster

 

CORNERBACK

Tre'Davious White

Vontae Davis

Taron Johnson, Phillip Gaines, Breon Borders, Lafayette Pitts

 

SAFETY

Micah Hyde

Jordan Poyer

Rafael Bush, Siran Neal

Kelcie McCray, LJ McCray, Dean Marlowe

 

 

*This excludes undrafted free agents. 

 

So I put each position into three categories.  Presumed starter(s), rotational players, and back-end/special team players. 

 

I look at this in two ways, 1.) The upcoming season, and 2.) The long-term plan.  I believe this is how McBeane is looking at it as they continuously say they're trying to win now and in the future.

 

THE UPCOMING SEASON

The Goal: 8-10 wins, meaningful games through all 17 weeks. 

 

I could be wrong on the goal, but I'm assuming the goal is along the same lines as it was last year.  The big-hitter for McBeane is the 2019 and 2020 seasons, so if they can just scrap up a meaningful 16 games and a possible playoff berth, I'm sure that'll do for them. 

 

How We Get There: As far as long term additions, our roster appears to be set for the upcoming season.  We're not adding anymore rookies on 4-5 year contracts and we're signing blockbuster free agents to 3+ year contracts (Sorry to the Dez fans).  So, we need to look at a couple of things here.  Our remaining needs, how to fix those remaining needs, and possible cap casualties. 

 

Needs: Deep threat receiver, one more quality offensive lineman, linebacker depth. 

 

Remember, this is in order to achieve our short term goal (8-10 wins, competitive, meaningful season).  It's clear and obvious that in the long term, to win a super bowl, we have many, many more needs than this.  However, to just be competitive and go .500 or above, we're very close. 

 

In order to attain these needs, we need to look at our remaining cap space and the options on the market (or even on our team). 

 

Remaining Cap Space: ~$9,500,000

 

Deep Threat Receiver: I've seen arguments that Jeremy Kerley, Rod Streater, Kaelin Clay or Ray-Ray McCloud could all turn into this guy.  However, that's banking on something that's less plausible than plausible.  So, I think turning to the free agent market is something that our front office will highly consider. 

 

Plausible Options: Markus Wheaton, Jeremy Maclin, Dontrelle Inman

 

I know that some like to throw out Dez Bryant's name, but it's highly unlikely.  Dez has been ridiculed as a locker room cancer and will also come at a high price (albeit a one-year contract) that would likely have to be paired with cutting a high profile name like Charles Clay.  Another name that should be shot down is Eric Decker.  If we're looking to add a receiver, it's gotta be a speedy guy to stretch the field.  We have multiple possession guys that can't really create separation. 

 

The name I like here is Dontrelle Inman.  Wheaton is on the back end of his career and may not even find a team this year, while Maclin has had serious injury issues. Inman would come with a cheap price tag and has shown that he's still getting more productive. 

 

Possible June 1/Cap Casualties: Emmanuel Sanders, Travis Benjamin

 

Both of these guys are speed threats that underperformed their contract and could be on the chopping block come June 1.  I find Sanders to be less of an option, and maybe unlikely to even get cut with the new quarterback coming in.  However, Benjamin is a name to keep an eye.  He'd come with much less of a price tag than Sanders and is much more likely to get cut. 

 

Quality Offensive Lineman: Bills Mafia is greatly exaggerating our need for an offensive lineman.  We have 7 players on our roster who have been capable of holding down a starting job.  Dion Dawkins excelled in doing so.  PFF loves Vladimir Ducasse, and John Miller has been praised for his 2016 performances.  When listing this as a need, I don't think we need to attack it outside of our roster.  Rather, I feel that we just need someone to step up for us and outperform their expectations.  This could possibly be the newly drafted Wyatt Teller that many scouts are giving us great grades for drafting. 

 

Linebacker Depth: As far as I'm concerned, the jury is still out on Matt Milano.  He had a couple of solid performances last year, but I don't know if he's solidified his spot as a starter yet.  I would not be surprised if Trent Murphy sees a heavy rotation involved at linebacker with Shaq playing defensive end of first and second downs.  Humber provided quality depth outside of his injury, but the fact is that we need to add atleast one, if not two more linebackers. 

 

Plausible Options: Navarro Bowmen, Kevin Minter, Jerrell Freeman

 

This roster completely lacks talent at linebacker so it would not at all surprise me if Beane is currently targeting the starting caliber guy in Bowmen.  He's made it this far into free agency and could likely be had on a one year deal worth less than $3,000,000. 

 

Our Potential June 1 Cuts/Cap Casualties/Trade Candidates: Charles Clay, Adolphus Washington, John Miller, Shaq Lawson, Jerry Hughes, Lorenzo Alexander

 

Charles Clay is thrown into this due to his June 1 cut potential.  By cutting Clay on June 1, we would save around $4,500,000.  I don't believe we will, but Beane has shown that he has brass balls.  By cutting Clay, I believe this would be paired with another splash move. 

 

John Miller, Lorenzo Alexander and Adolphus Washington are the most likely of the bunch.  All of these guys are guys from the past regime.  Miller and Washington both just saw possible replacements in this past draft with Wyatt Teller and Harrison Phillips.  Lorenzo is getting old and while we're paper thin at linebacker, cutting 'Zo would save us nearly $2,500,000. 

 

Jerry Hughes and Shaq Lawson are more-so for trading reasons.  Whether by uncredited rumors or not, both names were thrown around fairly often in this past draft and tied to trade speculation.  The signing of Trent Murphy certainly didn't do much to secure either of these guys spots.  However, in a defense that lacked any sort of pass rush this past year, I'd keep my eyes on Miller and Washington rather than these two. 

 

THE LONG-TERM PLAN

The Goal: Perennial contending, super bowl team. 

 

What's the goal if it isn't this?  McBeane showed their commitment to build a Carolina-like roster in this past draft with the drafting of Josh Allen (Cam Newton comp.) and Tremaine Edmunds (Luke Kuechly comp.).  They've already found a few cornerstones and will look to fill out the roster with their upcoming abundance of cap space. 

 

Key 2019 Free Agents: Kelvin Benjamin, Lorenzo Alexander, Kyle Williams, Vontae Davis, Ryan Groy, Jordan Mills, John Miller, Nick O'Leary

 

We don't have many essential free agents this upcoming year.  It'd be my guess that both Lorenzo and Kyle retire as they're getting old and they'll be hitting the end of their contracts.  Vontae is coming into a cornerback friendly defense on a one year deal, just like E.J. Gaines.  I don't think he's part of the long-term plan either.  The only player up here that's plausible to retain would be Kelvin Benjamin.  Due to a history with an injured knee and questions as to whether he's a serious #1 receiver, it's my hope that we can bring back Benjamin on a cheap deal.  Something along the lines of 4 years/$30 million sounds reasonable to me. 

 

Projected 2019 Cap Space: ~$80,000,000

 

2019 Draft Picks: Round 1, Round 2, Round 3, Round 4, Chiefs' Round 4, Round 5, Round 6, Round 7, Panthers' Round 7

 

Needs: Long term running back option, #1 receiver, high-caliber offensive lineman, high-caliber edge rusher/linebacker, #2 corner

 

Shady isn't going to last forever, and it's been continuously dwelled upon how old our running backs are.  Kelvin Benjamin doesn't seem to be a true number one, however at the right price, he'd be welcomed to stay on our roster as a number two and bump Zay to his true slot receiving position.  While I argued earlier that our offensive line is solid, which it is, we still need one more top-of-the-line guy up there to be perennial contenders.  We did a lot to revamp our edge rushing this year, but we could use an outside guy (likely at linebacker to pair with Edmunds) that is a headache on every single play.  And lastly, Vontae Davis simply isn't a long term option.  We'll need a number two cornerback once he hits the market again next off-season. 

 

Long Term Running Back Options: Bryce Love (Stanford), Damien Harris (Alabama), Myles Gaskin (Washington) 

 

I'm sure the flashy option that people are searching for is something like Le'Veon in free agency next year.  However, even with all of our cap space, I believe this regime is simply too smart to break the bank for a long term running back in free agency.  By the time that backs hit free agency, they're no longer a long term guy at that point.  Backs are a dime a dozen with a short shelf life.  So, here are some of the tops names in the draft next year instead. 

 

#1 Receiving Options: Collin Johnson (Texas), Randall Cobb, Stefon Diggs

 

This is a position where I would see the team breaking the bank, but next years free agency class is particularly weak with receivers.  I even hesitate to call Cobb and Diggs true number one receivers.  Of course there's OBJ, but do you really think that McBeane would put up with his antics?  Let alone him actually making it to the market to begin with? 

 

Collin Johnson out of Texas is going to be an absolute freak in the NFL.  He's a 6'6" monster with scary athleticism, this is the guy that I would want.  Because it makes sense to have a favorite target a year and a full football season away from the next draft, right? 

 

High-Caliber Offensive Lineman: Andy Levitre, Rodger Saffold, Taylor Lewan, Zack Martin, Jack Mewhort, Ali Marpet, Jonah Williams (Alabama)

 

There's a couple of names in here that are unlikely to make it out of their teams grasp and actually hit the open market, however the point should resonate.  If a top guy gets to the market, I think offensive lineman, along with an elite edge rusher, is what we're going to spend our big bucks on next year.  I don't even think it's reasonable to look into the draft for this position. 

 

High-Caliber Edge Rusher/Linebacker: Demarcus Lawrence, Khalil Mack, Jadeveon Clowney, Anthony Barr, Kwon Alexander, Avery Williamson, Nick Bosa (Ohio State), Clellin Ferrell (Clemson)

 

This is another replication of what I said about the offensive lineman position.  We have around $80,000,000 in cap space, you've got to spend it somewhere.  The receiving class is weak, running backs aren't worth the big money, so you fall to the offensive lineman and the edge rusher.  While it's unlikely some of these names hit the market, the point is that I foresee us spending big on the position. 

 

#2 Cornerback: Rashaan Melvin, E.J. Gaines, Jason Verrett, Bradley Roby, DeAndre Baker (Georgia), Michael Jackson (Miami)

 

The corner class isn't particularly deep next year, but that's okay because we have Tre White already.  If a top guy hits the market and we miss on offensive lineman/edge rushers, I would not at all be surprised for us to spend big here.  However, what I see for now is us spending about $6-$8 million a year on a quality number two cornerback.  If not, this could also be addressed via the draft. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I got a little lengthier than I had originally planned, but anyways this is how I see our next couple of years going. Comments?  Players you guys are keeping your eyes on? 

I am surprised the Bills or someone hasn't taken a flier on inman .   

[GunnerBill]

Really sensible post. My biggest moment of not agreeing was I think Ryan Groy will beat Bodine out for center and that means he will be a likely priority re-sign by next off-season.  That would be good news for all because these guys really value the center spot and if someone doesn't nail that job this year you can add that as a high level need in next year's draft.  Beane and McDermott are not going to take the "adequate is okay" approach at center.  They see it as an essential position and a position that absolutely requires a leader.  

[ganesh]

On 5/1/2018 at 9:12 PM, thenorthremembers said:

I think the team is setup well long term.  My worry is more about the short term.   In my opinion, there is a real chance the Bills end up with the first overall pick in 2019. 

There is always Cleveland to beat you to the punch there!!!