elijah Posted April 30, 2018 Posted April 30, 2018 CURRENT ROSTER QUARTERBACK A.J. McCarron Josh Allen, Nathan Peterman RUNNINGBACK LeSean McCoy Chris Ivory, Taiwan Jones, Tavaris Cadet, Marcus Murphy WIDE RECEIVER Kelvin Benjamin Zay Jones Jeremy Kerley, Andre Holmes, Rod Streater, Kaelin Clay, Ray-Ray McCloud, Brandon Reilly, Quan Bray, Malachi Dupre, Austin Proehl TIGHT END Charles Clay Nick O'Leary, Logan Thomas, Khari Lee, Keith Towbridge, Jason Croom OFFENSIVE LINE Dion Dawkins Vladimir Ducasse Russell Bodine John Miller Jordan Mills Ryan Groy, Marshall Newhouse, Wyatt Teller Conor McDermott, De'Ondre Wesley, Aaron Green, Josh James, Adam Redmond DEFENSIVE END Jerry Hughes Trent Murphy Shaq Lawson, Eddie Yarbrough Terrence Fede, Owamagbe Odighizuwa DEFENSIVE TACKLE Kyle Williams Star Lotulelei Harrison Phillips, Adolphus Washington Rickey Hatley, Marquavius Lewis, Tenny Palepoi OUTSIDE LINEBACKER Lorenzo Alexander Matt Milano Ramon Humber, Tanner Vallejo, Deon Lacey, Julian Stanford MIDDLE LINEBACKER Tremaine Edmunds Xavier Woodson-Luster CORNERBACK Tre'Davious White Vontae Davis Taron Johnson, Phillip Gaines, Breon Borders, Lafayette Pitts SAFETY Micah Hyde Jordan Poyer Rafael Bush, Siran Neal Kelcie McCray, LJ McCray, Dean Marlowe *This excludes undrafted free agents. So I put each position into three categories. Presumed starter(s), rotational players, and back-end/special team players. I look at this in two ways, 1.) The upcoming season, and 2.) The long-term plan. I believe this is how McBeane is looking at it as they continuously say they're trying to win now and in the future. THE UPCOMING SEASON The Goal: 8-10 wins, meaningful games through all 17 weeks. I could be wrong on the goal, but I'm assuming the goal is along the same lines as it was last year. The big-hitter for McBeane is the 2019 and 2020 seasons, so if they can just scrap up a meaningful 16 games and a possible playoff berth, I'm sure that'll do for them. How We Get There: As far as long term additions, our roster appears to be set for the upcoming season. We're not adding anymore rookies on 4-5 year contracts and we're signing blockbuster free agents to 3+ year contracts (Sorry to the Dez fans). So, we need to look at a couple of things here. Our remaining needs, how to fix those remaining needs, and possible cap casualties. Needs: Deep threat receiver, one more quality offensive lineman, linebacker depth. Remember, this is in order to achieve our short term goal (8-10 wins, competitive, meaningful season). It's clear and obvious that in the long term, to win a super bowl, we have many, many more needs than this. However, to just be competitive and go .500 or above, we're very close. In order to attain these needs, we need to look at our remaining cap space and the options on the market (or even on our team). Remaining Cap Space: ~$9,500,000 Deep Threat Receiver: I've seen arguments that Jeremy Kerley, Rod Streater, Kaelin Clay or Ray-Ray McCloud could all turn into this guy. However, that's banking on something that's less plausible than plausible. So, I think turning to the free agent market is something that our front office will highly consider. Plausible Options: Markus Wheaton, Jeremy Maclin, Dontrelle Inman I know that some like to throw out Dez Bryant's name, but it's highly unlikely. Dez has been ridiculed as a locker room cancer and will also come at a high price (albeit a one-year contract) that would likely have to be paired with cutting a high profile name like Charles Clay. Another name that should be shot down is Eric Decker. If we're looking to add a receiver, it's gotta be a speedy guy to stretch the field. We have multiple possession guys that can't really create separation. The name I like here is Dontrelle Inman. Wheaton is on the back end of his career and may not even find a team this year, while Maclin has had serious injury issues. Inman would come with a cheap price tag and has shown that he's still getting more productive. Possible June 1/Cap Casualties: Emmanuel Sanders, Travis Benjamin Both of these guys are speed threats that underperformed their contract and could be on the chopping block come June 1. I find Sanders to be less of an option, and maybe unlikely to even get cut with the new quarterback coming in. However, Benjamin is a name to keep an eye. He'd come with much less of a price tag than Sanders and is much more likely to get cut. Quality Offensive Lineman: Bills Mafia is greatly exaggerating our need for an offensive lineman. We have 7 players on our roster who have been capable of holding down a starting job. Dion Dawkins excelled in doing so. PFF loves Vladimir Ducasse, and John Miller has been praised for his 2016 performances. When listing this as a need, I don't think we need to attack it outside of our roster. Rather, I feel that we just need someone to step up for us and outperform their expectations. This could possibly be the newly drafted Wyatt Teller that many scouts are giving us great grades for drafting. Linebacker Depth: As far as I'm concerned, the jury is still out on Matt Milano. He had a couple of solid performances last year, but I don't know if he's solidified his spot as a starter yet. I would not be surprised if Trent Murphy sees a heavy rotation involved at linebacker with Shaq playing defensive end of first and second downs. Humber provided quality depth outside of his injury, but the fact is that we need to add atleast one, if not two more linebackers. Plausible Options: Navarro Bowmen, Kevin Minter, Jerrell Freeman This roster completely lacks talent at linebacker so it would not at all surprise me if Beane is currently targeting the starting caliber guy in Bowmen. He's made it this far into free agency and could likely be had on a one year deal worth less than $3,000,000. Our Potential June 1 Cuts/Cap Casualties/Trade Candidates: Charles Clay, Adolphus Washington, John Miller, Shaq Lawson, Jerry Hughes, Lorenzo Alexander Charles Clay is thrown into this due to his June 1 cut potential. By cutting Clay on June 1, we would save around $4,500,000. I don't believe we will, but Beane has shown that he has brass balls. By cutting Clay, I believe this would be paired with another splash move. John Miller, Lorenzo Alexander and Adolphus Washington are the most likely of the bunch. All of these guys are guys from the past regime. Miller and Washington both just saw possible replacements in this past draft with Wyatt Teller and Harrison Phillips. Lorenzo is getting old and while we're paper thin at linebacker, cutting 'Zo would save us nearly $2,500,000. Jerry Hughes and Shaq Lawson are more-so for trading reasons. Whether by uncredited rumors or not, both names were thrown around fairly often in this past draft and tied to trade speculation. The signing of Trent Murphy certainly didn't do much to secure either of these guys spots. However, in a defense that lacked any sort of pass rush this past year, I'd keep my eyes on Miller and Washington rather than these two. THE LONG-TERM PLAN The Goal: Perennial contending, super bowl team. What's the goal if it isn't this? McBeane showed their commitment to build a Carolina-like roster in this past draft with the drafting of Josh Allen (Cam Newton comp.) and Tremaine Edmunds (Luke Kuechly comp.). They've already found a few cornerstones and will look to fill out the roster with their upcoming abundance of cap space. Key 2019 Free Agents: Kelvin Benjamin, Lorenzo Alexander, Kyle Williams, Vontae Davis, Ryan Groy, Jordan Mills, John Miller, Nick O'Leary We don't have many essential free agents this upcoming year. It'd be my guess that both Lorenzo and Kyle retire as they're getting old and they'll be hitting the end of their contracts. Vontae is coming into a cornerback friendly defense on a one year deal, just like E.J. Gaines. I don't think he's part of the long-term plan either. The only player up here that's plausible to retain would be Kelvin Benjamin. Due to a history with an injured knee and questions as to whether he's a serious #1 receiver, it's my hope that we can bring back Benjamin on a cheap deal. Something along the lines of 4 years/$30 million sounds reasonable to me. Projected 2019 Cap Space: ~$80,000,000 2019 Draft Picks: Round 1, Round 2, Round 3, Round 4, Chiefs' Round 4, Round 5, Round 6, Round 7, Panthers' Round 7 Needs: Long term running back option, #1 receiver, high-caliber offensive lineman, high-caliber edge rusher/linebacker, #2 corner Shady isn't going to last forever, and it's been continuously dwelled upon how old our running backs are. Kelvin Benjamin doesn't seem to be a true number one, however at the right price, he'd be welcomed to stay on our roster as a number two and bump Zay to his true slot receiving position. While I argued earlier that our offensive line is solid, which it is, we still need one more top-of-the-line guy up there to be perennial contenders. We did a lot to revamp our edge rushing this year, but we could use an outside guy (likely at linebacker to pair with Edmunds) that is a headache on every single play. And lastly, Vontae Davis simply isn't a long term option. We'll need a number two cornerback once he hits the market again next off-season. Long Term Running Back Options: Bryce Love (Stanford), Damien Harris (Alabama), Myles Gaskin (Washington) I'm sure the flashy option that people are searching for is something like Le'Veon in free agency next year. However, even with all of our cap space, I believe this regime is simply too smart to break the bank for a long term running back in free agency. By the time that backs hit free agency, they're no longer a long term guy at that point. Backs are a dime a dozen with a short shelf life. So, here are some of the tops names in the draft next year instead. #1 Receiving Options: Collin Johnson (Texas), Randall Cobb, Stefon Diggs This is a position where I would see the team breaking the bank, but next years free agency class is particularly weak with receivers. I even hesitate to call Cobb and Diggs true number one receivers. Of course there's OBJ, but do you really think that McBeane would put up with his antics? Let alone him actually making it to the market to begin with? Collin Johnson out of Texas is going to be an absolute freak in the NFL. He's a 6'6" monster with scary athleticism, this is the guy that I would want. Because it makes sense to have a favorite target a year and a full football season away from the next draft, right? High-Caliber Offensive Lineman: Andy Levitre, Rodger Saffold, Taylor Lewan, Zack Martin, Jack Mewhort, Ali Marpet, Jonah Williams (Alabama) There's a couple of names in here that are unlikely to make it out of their teams grasp and actually hit the open market, however the point should resonate. If a top guy gets to the market, I think offensive lineman, along with an elite edge rusher, is what we're going to spend our big bucks on next year. I don't even think it's reasonable to look into the draft for this position. High-Caliber Edge Rusher/Linebacker: Demarcus Lawrence, Khalil Mack, Jadeveon Clowney, Anthony Barr, Kwon Alexander, Avery Williamson, Nick Bosa (Ohio State), Clellin Ferrell (Clemson) This is another replication of what I said about the offensive lineman position. We have around $80,000,000 in cap space, you've got to spend it somewhere. The receiving class is weak, running backs aren't worth the big money, so you fall to the offensive lineman and the edge rusher. While it's unlikely some of these names hit the market, the point is that I foresee us spending big on the position. #2 Cornerback: Rashaan Melvin, E.J. Gaines, Jason Verrett, Bradley Roby, DeAndre Baker (Georgia), Michael Jackson (Miami) The corner class isn't particularly deep next year, but that's okay because we have Tre White already. If a top guy hits the market and we miss on offensive lineman/edge rushers, I would not at all be surprised for us to spend big here. However, what I see for now is us spending about $6-$8 million a year on a quality number two cornerback. If not, this could also be addressed via the draft. I got a little lengthier than I had originally planned, but anyways this is how I see our next couple of years going. Comments? Players you guys are keeping your eyes on? 11 17
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted April 30, 2018 Posted April 30, 2018 (edited) Schtupp on GR would listen to your research and projections, say "uh...I disagree", and hang up on you. Good research and effort, whether time proves you right or wrong. Edited April 30, 2018 by Ridgewaycynic2013 2 1
elijah Posted April 30, 2018 Author Posted April 30, 2018 Just now, Ridgewaycynic2013 said: Schtupp on GR would listen to your research and projections, say "uh...I disagree", and hang up on you. I despise Schopp. One of the worst sports analysts I've ever listened too. One time I walked around New Era at a game this past season asking people if they listened to GR and their thoughts about Schopp if they did, not a single person had a positive comment on Schopp. 2
Johnny Hammersticks Posted April 30, 2018 Posted April 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, ddaryl said: Rasmus Dahlin !!!!!!!! Can he play MLB?
BrotherChazz Posted April 30, 2018 Posted April 30, 2018 The State of the Union is Strong, and looking even better down the road!
MrEpsYtown Posted April 30, 2018 Posted April 30, 2018 Appreciate the effort put in. A couple of points, imo. One of Zach Martin or DeMarcus Lawrence will hit the open market. The Cowboys cannot franchise both of them. I would love to have either and we will have the money to spend. I do not think Trent Murphy will play off the ball at all. He's really a defensive end who played some 3-4 OLB in Washington. He could play some SAM in 4-3 under looks, but that's about it. He's a defensive end. I think Milano will get some stiff competition at WILL from Julian Stanford, but I think Milano wins out. I could see some lower level depth added, possibly a vet like Karlos Dansby or a cheap lower level vet like Jordan Tripp to add depth and play special teams (Tripp was drafted by Dennis Hickey and played for Bob Babich in Jacksonville.) I could see us taking a shot on a Brian Cushing or Lawrence Timmons to ease the transition for Edmunds and to play some SAM. On the line, I still think Luke Joeckel makes a ton of sense and is clearly the best guard on the market who should come cheap at this point.
elijah Posted April 30, 2018 Author Posted April 30, 2018 1 minute ago, MrEpsYtown said: Appreciate the effort put in. A couple of points, imo. One of Zach Martin or DeMarcus Lawrence will hit the open market. The Cowboys cannot franchise both of them. I would love to have either and we will have the money to spend. I do not think Trent Murphy will play off the ball at all. He's really a defensive end who played some 3-4 OLB in Washington. He could play some SAM in 4-3 under looks, but that's about it. He's a defensive end. I think Milano will get some stiff competition at WILL from Julian Stanford, but I think Milano wins out. I could see some lower level depth added, possibly a vet like Karlos Dansby or a cheap lower level vet like Jordan Tripp to add depth and play special teams (Tripp was drafted by Dennis Hickey and played for Bob Babich in Jacksonville.) I could see us taking a shot on a Brian Cushing or Lawrence Timmons to ease the transition for Edmunds and to play some SAM. On the line, I still think Luke Joeckel makes a ton of sense and is clearly the best guard on the market who should come cheap at this point. i almost threw cushing in there as a possible name, but if i’m not mistaking he’s had suspensions in the past correct? cushing could be suspension free and i could be wrong, in which case i completely agree on the name. however if he has served suspensions, i just don’t see mcbeane welcoming him to the team.
ndirish1978 Posted April 30, 2018 Posted April 30, 2018 Thanks for the post and all the work you put into it! Teller and Ducasse are most likely to be our starting Guards. I agree the Washington and Miller are on thin ice but disagree that Lawson or Lorax have to be worried about getting cut. They aren't going to cut a player they rely on to help establish culture and Lorax is a locker room leader. 1
Kelly the Dog Posted April 30, 2018 Posted April 30, 2018 That's a terrific post for a filibuster. I agree with about 90% of it. Nice job all around. I imagine we sign at least three guys who will make the roster, including a veteran LB and a veteran speed WR, and a guy like Gilislee if he gets cut. Hopefully an OL but I don't predict it.
corta765 Posted April 30, 2018 Posted April 30, 2018 Fantastic SOU and I agree with you on O-line. They have a lot of capable starters if anything them gel-ing together is more the thing then talent at this point. The only area I would disagree is the overall record 8-10 wins. I think both Beane and McD know it is more likely to be 6-9 win year then near 8-10. The schedule is brutal in the first half, they are breaking in a rookie QB, and even with the defense bolstering some talent it will take a few games to see them come together. Perhaps that's the pessimist in me as a Bills fan but I don't think even a 6-10 season is a failure or step back if Allen grows, the defense comes into its own, and the team is competitive. They did win 9 games last year but a few bounces here and its 6-10 also.
MrEpsYtown Posted April 30, 2018 Posted April 30, 2018 11 minutes ago, elijah said: i almost threw cushing in there as a possible name, but if i’m not mistaking he’s had suspensions in the past correct? cushing could be suspension free and i could be wrong, in which case i completely agree on the name. however if he has served suspensions, i just don’t see mcbeane welcoming him to the team. He served a PED suspension last year when he was injured. This offseason Beane signed Murphy, Odigizuwa, Kerley, and Palepoi...all four had PED suspensions at one point, so I'm not sure he cares about that. I think it depends on $$$$ and if Cushing can play anymore. 1
elijah Posted April 30, 2018 Author Posted April 30, 2018 More of a hot take then what i had originally put in the post, I forgot to include AJ McCarron in the possible cap casualties. We we know this staff is very high on Nathan Peterman and I believe if he comes to camp and wins the job, McCarron will be booted. We would lose only the $4.5 million we already guaranteed him, and save a little over $5 million next year. He’s on a very team friendly contract, and I think that shows McBeane’s faith in Peterman than it shows anything else. I know he had an absolutely terrible game, but with that in the past, he showed a very quick release, decent arm strength and decent accuracy to build on.
Saxum Posted May 1, 2018 Posted May 1, 2018 6 hours ago, ndirish1978 said: Thanks for the post and all the work you put into it! Teller and Ducasse are most likely to be our starting Guards. I agree the Washington and Miller are on thin ice but disagree that Lawson or Lorax have to be worried about getting cut. They aren't going to cut a player they rely on to help establish culture and Lorax is a locker room leader. I think it is possible they might ask Lorax to take a pay cut in training camp like they did Incognito. That surprised me a lot based on his performance last year.
Aussie Joe Posted May 1, 2018 Posted May 1, 2018 (edited) 20 hours ago, elijah said: More of a hot take then what i had originally put in the post, I forgot to include AJ McCarron in the possible cap casualties. We we know this staff is very high on Nathan Peterman and I believe if he comes to camp and wins the job, McCarron will be booted. We would lose only the $4.5 million we already guaranteed him, and save a little over $5 million next year. He’s on a very team friendly contract, and I think that shows McBeane’s faith in Peterman than it shows anything else. I know he had an absolutely terrible game, but with that in the past, he showed a very quick release, decent arm strength and decent accuracy to build on. No chance AJ is getting cut when they have already guaranteed his money this year and with uncertainty around JA and Peterman.. I can see them trying to trade AJ in March 2019 if JA is the man by then... he certainly has a team friendly deal... Edited May 1, 2018 by Aussie Joe
thenorthremembers Posted May 1, 2018 Posted May 1, 2018 I think the team is setup well long term. My worry is more about the short term. In my opinion, there is a real chance the Bills end up with the first overall pick in 2019.
elijah Posted May 1, 2018 Author Posted May 1, 2018 2 hours ago, Aussie Joe said: No chance AJ is getting cut when they have already guaranteed his money this year and with uncertainty around JA and Peterman.. I can see them trying to trade AJ in March 2019 if JA is the man by then... he certainly has a team friendly deal... Eh.. I wasn’t saying he was getting cut, more of just a possibility. To to say there’s no chance is to assume something is definite when it isn’t. Realistically, this coaching staff has an infinity for Peterman. Most teams around the league only carry two quarterbacks, if the bills find that they want that extra spot and Peterman looks alright in camp and preseason, you never know.
Mr. ChumChums Posted May 1, 2018 Posted May 1, 2018 This is fantastic, thank you for putting this together. I think many on this board who are crying about this draft don't realize that "the process" is a multi-year deal. This upcoming season isn't where we're really meant to compete for a Super Bowl - it's supposed to be next year and beyond. We're laying down a solid foundation for our team with this year's draft, and have a ton of flexibility next offseason to build a championship caliber team, assuming Allen develops like we hope he will.
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