Start Allen from Day 1/ QB competition

[JoeF]

He certainly doesn't seem like a mentally weak or a dumb kid, in fact, the opposite.  He already faced a test having to deal with a nightmare on draft day.  He handled that like a mature adult. He owned up to it-- even calling Stephen A. Smith at 2 AM to talk for 30 minutes about his regret.  

 

That said, I don't think he's ready.  He's got to learn an offense and work on his mechanics and work on recognition.  One of those would be a lot for any prospect. Accomplishing all three likely not doable between now and September.  This kid has the potential to be a special talent if he is coached and managed correctly. Bring Jordan Palmer in to continue the work, have a plan to work him in the last 6 weeks or so if the season is lost.  If not, keep getting him scout reps, particularly when prepping for teams who run a similar O.  Target a full off-season and open the competition next year no matter what happens this year.

14 minutes ago, Epstein's Mother said:

 

I ask this with complete sincerity:  Is there an example that someone can give me of a QB who was highly drafted and whose career was ruined because he played to soon?

I think David Carr could have been decent if he wasn't a tackling dummy his first 4 years.

Edited April 30, 2018 by JoeF

[SouthNYfan]

I heard he can toss a pigskin over a quarter mile.

[Epstein's Mother]

2 minutes ago, JoeF said:

I ask this with complete sincerity:  Is there an example that someone can give me of a QB who was highly drafted and whose career was ruined because he played to soon?

 

2 minutes ago, JoeF said:

I think David Carr could have been decent if he wasn't a tackling dummy his first 2 years.

 

I'll buy that.

[The Wiz]

9 minutes ago, Epstein's Mother said:

 

I ask this with complete sincerity:  Is there an example that someone can give me of a QB who was highly drafted and whose career was ruined because he played to soon?

I don't know the roster of the teams that took the players at the time so I can't say they should or shouldn't have started but a few players I can think of that came in expecting to turn the franchise around immediately were:

Ryan leaf

Joey Harrington

David Carr

 

There are a few others that played for a while but never developed to their full potential but those are the ones I could think of.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

4 minutes ago, Doc said:

Like I said before, there is no critical need to rush a rookie quarterback into the starting lineup.  Let the other two guys compete for the starting spot, and if/when the team starts to lose out on the playoff race, put Allen in. 

No, like I said before    (in these redundant threads)        

 

there is no critical need to rush a rookie quarterback into the starting lineup    

[LabattBlue]

1 hour ago, theRalph said:

...The drought is over. Don't look back. Josh Allen, on his way to becoming the most prolific QB in Bills history, will start 9/9/18.

 

Bash away!!

 

How about seeing him in training camp and pre-season games before making outrageous predictions.  

[NoSaint]

43 minutes ago, Bills4life1924 said:

I tend to disagree, I'm not saying he is pinpoint accurate. But he is certainly accurate and can make all the throws on the field. I don't get where ppl think he isn't accurate.(and don't even say completion %)

 

What metric would you accept?

[Epstein's Mother]

1 minute ago, The Wiz said:

I don't know the roster of the teams that took the players at the time so I can't say they should or shouldn't have started but a few players I can think of that came in expecting to turn the franchise around immediately were:

Ryan leaf

Joey Harrington

David Carr

 

There are a few others that played for a while but never developed to their full potential but those are the ones I could think of.

 

These are all reasonable responses.  As I said, this was a sincere question.

[Roundybout]

41 minutes ago, Epstein's Mother said:

 

I ask this with complete sincerity:  Is there an example that someone can give me of a QB who was highly drafted and whose career was ruined because he played to soon?

 

Here's one. Tim Couch. That Browns team had nothing, and of course he was played because what else did they have? I bet you he would have had at least a Dalton level career anywhere else, even the Bills, for example. 

[Bills4life1924]

18 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

What metric would you accept?

No stat is gonna tell me he's not accurate. I've watched a lot of tape/games of Allen(before and after draft), don't get me wrong I'm no scout of course. But if u watch enough of his tape any1 can see he is accurate. The problem I see more than anything(besides playing behind an awful line) is he doesn't make the right reads at times and tends to force the issue. Could be from being pressured a ton at Wyoming and wasn't able to go through his progressions, but accuracy is not an issue

[NoSaint]

Just now, Bills4life1924 said:

No stat is gonna tell me he's not accurate. I've watched a lot of tape/games of Allen(before and after draft), don't get me wrong I'm no scout of course. But if u watch enough of his tape any1 can see he is accurate. The problem I see more than anything(besides playing behind an awful line) is he doesn't make the right reads at times and tends to force the issue. Could be from being pressured a ton at Wyoming and wasn't able to go through his progressions, but accuracy is not an issue

 

So what your saying is you made up your mind and it’s not much worth discussing 

[Bills4life1924]

5 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

So what your saying is you made up your mind and it’s not much worth discussing 

Not what I'm saying at all. Don't know how u came to that conclusion. I gave my opinion/thoughts. I'm open to hear what u have to say

[Houston's #1 Bills Fan]

56 minutes ago, Epstein's Mother said:

 

I prefer that too but Brett Favre isn't available.

Yes he is! Just down on the farm. Let's go get him!!

[theRalph]

1 hour ago, Epstein's Mother said:

I ask this with complete sincerity:  Is there an example that someone can give me of a QB who was highly drafted and whose career was ruined because he played to soon?

I don't believe it's as much about playing too soon as it is the team a QB plays for. In the 20 drafts preceding this one there were 27 QBs selected with a top five pick. At least half of these I term "franchise" QBs. Trading up is more in vogue today, but in many of the drafts I studied, top five picks went to lousy teams that didn't properly develop the player, whenever they started. Development has far more to do with a bust than does the scouting process.

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, theRalph said:

It's Monday and the flow of calls bashing the Josh Allen pick continue. I wonder how many of these callers have actually watched the games and the scouting vids and blogs covering Allen. It feels like drought effects on fans still linger, even though the drought is now history. I define fan drought effects as a a predisposition of looking at anything the team does with negativity, because they've become conditioned to it over a generation of no playoffs.

 

Things have changed. McDermott and Beane in their time so far have done nothing but make smart moves. They have reshaped the locker room. They broke the drought with maybe the last version of the Bills one would have expected. They are certainly and systematically changing the franchise with their process. And yet their selections are being criticized as if they are still Ryan and Whaley. Nix and Gailey. And so on.

 

I watched everything I could find on Josh Allen prior to the draft and then watched it all again after. He is an accurate passer. Period. Completion percentage as a measure of accuracy is horsecrap. Allen was under pressure a lot. I see dropped passes. And under certain pressure he, at times, takes off a bit early. But he generally moves in the pocket well, with a Brady-esque hop avoiding pressure. He releases a football with up to a 74 mph fingertip speed. His release time is an insane .388 seconds. He does not throw balls in the dirt. He has a great football IQ and has run a pro style offense. He was not in a pass-happy college spread that benefitted the stats of some other draftees - like Mayfield. Allen completed 152 of 270 attempts in 2017 for a 56% completion percentage. Had he completed 23 more of these, he has a 65% average. Over 10 games, that's 2.3 drops per game. I saw more than that. 

 

The drought is over. Don't look back. Josh Allen, on his way to becoming the most prolific QB in Bills history, will start 9/9/18.

 

Bash away!!

 

 

 

Yeah, 9/9/19, maybe.

 

And as for the drops, yeah, he had them. And if you pretend they're catches his percentages go up. And if you do the same for other QBs their percentages also go up, beyond Allen's.

 

I'm still hopeful about the guy but he's competing against a guy who's been in the league for four years and knows how to play in the NFL. Even the pundits and film watchers who really like Allen say he needs a year or more to develop. Mayock, for instance really liked him but said that the team that gets him must be willing to be patient. 

 

Exactly.

[Epstein's Mother]

2 minutes ago, theRalph said:

I don't believe it's as much about playing too soon as it is the team a QB plays for. In the 20 drafts preceding this one there were 27 QBs selected with a top five pick. At least half of these I term "franchise" QBs. Trading up is more in vogue today, but in many of the drafts I studied, top five picks went to lousy teams that didn't properly develop the player, whenever they started. Development has far more to do with a bust than does the scouting process.

 

This is a good point.  After I posed my question I got a few very good responses.  Those players cited seemed to have one thing in common which was they pretty much went to bottom feeder teams that did not have any plan in place to develop them.

[Thurman#1]

40 minutes ago, Bills4life1924 said:

No stat is gonna tell me he's not accurate. I've watched a lot of tape/games of Allen(before and after draft), don't get me wrong I'm no scout of course. But if u watch enough of his tape any1 can see he is accurate. The problem I see more than anything(besides playing behind an awful line) is he doesn't make the right reads at times and tends to force the issue. Could be from being pressured a ton at Wyoming and wasn't able to go through his progressions, but accuracy is not an issue

 

 

I would disagree with that, because even Allen's QB coach Jordan Palmer freely admits he had accuracy problems, caused by overstepping and foot mechanics. Accuracy was a problem. It has been addressed and his accuracy has improved a great deal. The question is whether that improvement will stick. There's a pretty decent chance it will.

 

But as you say, there are some other issues.

[theRalph]

1 hour ago, NoSaint said:

What metric would you accept?

Establish an agreed to catch radius and determine through video analysis how many balls were within it. Accuracy, to me, is a measure of how close you are to your intended target...as we perceive it. Then you'd have to factor in pressure situations that would aggravate accuracy. Haven't heard anyone quote a stat the percentage of throws made under pressure. I watched all the tape and Josh Allen is an accurate passer.

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, Epstein's Mother said:

 

I prefer that too but Brett Favre isn't available.

 

 

No, but a guy for Allen to sit behind is.

 

And it ain't like if you put in a rookie QB this team will suddenly be good enough to compete for a championship next year.

 

1 hour ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I personally like the way Peyton Manning was brought into the NFL as a rookie. Let him be aggressive and throw the ball downfield and learn from his mistakes while learning the speed of the NFL. Now if the O-Line looks really bad then put AJM in there, no reason for the QB to get beat up. If the O-Line is playing solid and Allen beats out AJM in the preseason he should start.

 

 

I hear you, but Peyton Manning was considered one of the most NFL-ready QBs out of college in the history of the league.

Edited April 30, 2018 by Thurman#1

[mannc]

With five of the first seven games on the road, I don’t expect to see Allen on the field until the second half of the season, barring injury to AJ of course.