Imissbeastmode Posted May 1, 2018 Posted May 1, 2018 25 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said: Honest question. All over the boards I've seen it repeated over and over since the draft that Allen has the highest ceiling. What exactly does that mean and how are people getting to that conclusion? What QB does he look like if he gets there? How does he win games? What are his losses like? Why can't Mayfield be the next Drew Brees? Why can't Darnold be the next Marino, Rosen the next Eli, Rudolph the next Roethlisberger? If Allen becomes the next Favre, is that the pinnacle of quarterbacking? How EXACTLY does Allen have the "highest ceiling" when he's never played better than any of his peers going back to pee-wee? His ceiling is Jay Cutler.
Bfanlc Posted May 1, 2018 Posted May 1, 2018 25 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said: Honest question. All over the boards I've seen it repeated over and over since the draft that Allen has the highest ceiling. What exactly does that mean and how are people getting to that conclusion? What QB does he look like if he gets there? How does he win games? What are his losses like? Why can't Mayfield be the next Drew Brees? Why can't Darnold be the next Marino, Rosen the next Eli, Rudolph the next Roethlisberger? If Allen becomes the next Favre, is that the pinnacle of quarterbacking? How EXACTLY does Allen have the "highest ceiling" when he's never played better than any of his peers going back to pee-wee? I think people are confusing highest ceiling with largest amount of growth to do to reach his ceiling. I don't think his ceiling is any higher than Darnolds or Mayfields. They are just more NFL ready than he is. 1
GunnerBill Posted May 1, 2018 Posted May 1, 2018 On 29/04/2018 at 4:31 PM, billsfan1959 said: IMHO, those who like Allen will be able to find all the evidence they need to justify his potential to be a franchise QB. Conversely, those that do not like Allen will be able to find all the evidence they need to justify his potential to be a complete bust. The fact is Josh Allen has the potential to do either and you don't need to look at his film for very long to see that. He is the definition almost of the sky high ceiling but rock bottom floor. I think anyone who has watched him and is interested in a fair analysis will accept that. The question is where you peg him as likely to end up on that spectrum and ultimately now the next point at which we get real evidence to begin to plot on the graph is when he gets on the field. As I said elsewhere last night my feeling listening to Beane is that will be sooner rather than later.
RPbillsfan Posted May 1, 2018 Posted May 1, 2018 1 hour ago, Imissbeastmode said: His ceiling is Jay Cutler. How is Josh Allen in any way comparable to Jay Cutler. If your talking arm strength maybe that's the only area I see. Allen looks like he is a natural leader, hard working, involved and dedicated, none of those attributes were ever part of Jay Cutler's persona. Sorry, really don't see the comparison
Coach Tuesday Posted May 1, 2018 Posted May 1, 2018 44 minutes ago, RPbillsfan said: How is Josh Allen in any way comparable to Jay Cutler. If your talking arm strength maybe that's the only area I see. Allen looks like he is a natural leader, hard working, involved and dedicated, none of those attributes were ever part of Jay Cutler's persona. Sorry, really don't see the comparison He's not really like Jay Cutler as an overall player/person - but both players over-rely on their arm strength to their advantage and disadvantage. Cutler never bothered to fix his mechanics and would heave the ball up for grabs off his back foot 2-5 times per game. Allen has flashed some of that in college and it's up to him to fix it.
Fadingpain Posted May 1, 2018 Posted May 1, 2018 On April 29, 2018 at 11:31 AM, billsfan1959 said: IMHO, those who like Allen will be able to find all the evidence they need to justify his potential to be a franchise QB. Conversely, those that do not like Allen will be able to find all the evidence they need to justify his potential to be a complete bust. Whether or not I agree with the pick, I respect that, not only, did this franchise finally take a real shot at finding a franchise QB, they chose the one that has the highest potential ceiling. They swung for the fence and I hope they hit it out of the park. Disagree. Blowing the draft choice on a guy who is highly likely to bust according to all the data is not "taking a real shot at finding a franchise QB" any more than taking EJ was a real shot. Want a real shot at a franchise QB? Take the best passer in this draft class, Josh Rosen. Time will tell.
ganesh Posted May 1, 2018 Posted May 1, 2018 On 4/29/2018 at 10:13 PM, cd1 said: Sorry - Both EJ Manuel and Tyrod Taylor have incredible strong work ethics. Work Ethic is not a determination of achievement. It is the strong work ethic to overcome their deficiencies.
billsfan1959 Posted May 1, 2018 Posted May 1, 2018 24 minutes ago, Fadingpain said: Disagree. Blowing the draft choice on a guy who is highly likely to bust according to all the data is not "taking a real shot at finding a franchise QB" any more than taking EJ was a real shot. Want a real shot at a franchise QB? Take the best passer in this draft class, Josh Rosen. Time will tell. You are certainly welcome to your opinion; however, IMHO, I believe there is far less certainty about who will be a bust and who will be great than you seem to. Just a feeling on my part, but, I don't think ALL the data indicates Allen will be a bust. Then again, I haven't seen ALL the data and you apparently have. So, maybe you are right. We do agree on one thing: Time will tell.
billsfan1959 Posted May 1, 2018 Posted May 1, 2018 (edited) 4 hours ago, GunnerBill said: The fact is Josh Allen has the potential to do either and you don't need to look at his film for very long to see that. He is the definition almost of the sky high ceiling but rock bottom floor. I think anyone who has watched him and is interested in a fair analysis will accept that. The question is where you peg him as likely to end up on that spectrum and ultimately now the next point at which we get real evidence to begin to plot on the graph is when he gets on the field. As I said elsewhere last night my feeling listening to Beane is that will be sooner rather than later. Always respect your opinion Gunner and I absolutely agree his ceiling is very high and his floor is very low. I watched as much film and read as many analyses as I could on the QBs in this draft, as I was fairly certain the Bills would select one of the "top 4.". I do not believe I have anywhere near the ability of guys like you or Kirby in assessing their talent; however, I also wouldn't consider myself to be completely void of any ability - maybe somewhere in between. At the end, when the choice on draft night came down to Rosen or Allen, my analyses told me they should go with Rosen over Allen. With all that said, risk assessment is a very tricky business - and that is really all the draft process is: An assessment of as many variables possible to predict future behavior. That is something I do have considerable experience with (although not football success). Since 1997, there have been 56 quarterbacks taken in the first round. Less than 35% have won a playoff game and less than 35% have career winning records.In that same span, there were 33 QBs taken in the top 10. Excluding the four that have been in the league less than three years, 44% (13) have career winning records and have won at least one playoff game (we'll use this as an arbitrary measure of success for this). That doesn't mean a team has a 44% chance of finding that successful QB if they pick one in the top 10. The QB they select will either be successful or he will not. The real question is: Do all of the variables indicate a greater chance of him being in the 44% who are successful or the 56% that are not. I would agree with you that the variables I have looked at seem to say Allen has a greater chance of being in the unsuccessful group (not to the degree that you do). However, from experience, I also know that risk assessment is a very inexact science. In any given case we really do not know which variables will be the most weighted, what variables we are unaware of, and how all of the variables ultimately come together. And some of those variables may not even exist yet. At this point, based on what I have looked at, I just do not feel as strongly as you do about which group he is more likely to end up in. So, Allen was not my first choice; however, I was not unhappy with the selection and I am just not as pessimistic as some others may be. I will hope for the best, as you will, until there is no reason to hope anymore. I certainly haven't reached that point yet - not even close. Edited May 1, 2018 by billsfan1959 1
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