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Posted
10 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

So is Allen's issue footwork or mechanics?

 

It's a good question, I'm going to give you a long-winded answer that sums to "maybe?".  

 

It can be hard to tell from some of the video available from the public, but what scares several of us (GunnerBill being one, I think Buffalo716, me not that I'm in their league) is when his throw is off-target, we can't see any obvious flaw in his mechanics.  That's scary because if you can't tell what's wrong, you can't fix it.

 

QB Coach Jordan Palmer says footwork.  He says one flaw is an overstride with his lead foot that impacts his hip rotation.  I don't think I'd see that on the film available to the public, I just see if he's set and where his feet and hips are when he throws and follows through.  (Actually, I'm not sure I'd see that on any film TBH)

 

MetzelaarsLives, who has the advantage of actually being at games (and I think TheBandit) say more than we know is on the WR not running the correct routes for the coverage (I think I have that right).  Allen, in a not-throwing-his-mates-under-the-bus kind of way, alluded to that in one play breakdown of the "Wakeup Call" series with Cousins.

1 hour ago, Boyst62 said:

Isn't that also a bit of a concern being that old dogs can't learn new tricks?

 

Rhetorical much?  :P

 

Maybe I'm just being hopeful here, but I think it could be a favorable point that Allen was not all-football, all-the-time like most of the top kids.

He could be less of an "old dog" WRT muscle memory than we think.

 

Most of today's top QB start playing on elite teams in grade school.  They play year round.  They start for their HS football team as freshmen, and continue to play club ball in the spring and do camps, they work with throwing coaches year round.  So by the time they get to college much less NFL, they've been coached and coached and coached and they're pretty entrenched.

 

I don't think Allen had elite teams to play on in his area, and after football season was over I think he moved on to basketball, swimming, and baseball.  He didn't play QB until he was a Jr in HS.  When he got home, his parents weren't gonna drive him 2 hrs to meet with a QB coach, they asked him to join his dad out in the fields to move irrigation pipes instead.  So he may not be as entrenched in his muscle memory, and it may be easier for him to make lasting changes.

 

Woof.

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

So is Allen's issue footwork or mechanics?

It’s basically  the same thing... footwork is part of a QBs mechanics...”mechanics” just means the operational process of throwing the football...so footwork is part of that process.

Edited by JaCrispy
Posted
1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't agree with Sal about the first ball's placement.  I thought it was thrown long and the WR was running flat out and reached for it/couldn't haul it in.  A mad skills NFL wide out might have launched for it - maybe - but it would have been a high degree of difficulty catch.

 

At his proday, Allen, IMO, made some very similar throws to what Sal calls out.  Look at 3:08.  His "RB" comes down with the ball but he needs to extend his arms and jump a bit.   That's not something that should be needed on game day.  Then 3:35 there's a long throw which sails wide to the WR's right.  I wish you could see more on the tape but I don't see any obvious footwork issue there.  (I wish the announcers would talk about the throws and not just be babbling in the background about his footwork and Carson Wentz then "as you see there he really needs to make those throws")

 

Then the next throw is flawless.  The problem is, in the NFL, you don't get to make the next throw, because the first throw got picked.

 

Anyway, I wish Allen the best (obviously!) because he's a Bill now, but I think talk about him having "fixed" his accuracy issues as shown by Combine/Pro Day etc is not quite right.  He's made some improvements, but he has a long way to go.

I just don't know if we have the right coaches in place to help the guy.  [Just - for God's sake McBeane don't bring in Dave Lee.]
 

To be fair, that throw to the TE in the end zone was well placed. Makes me wonder how many of his passes were "uncatchable" as you pointed out vs. how many were "dropped".  Both of those factors would affect his completion percentage (which everyone seems to be harping on).

Posted

Literally every competent anaylast that has gone over Allen's pre-draft tape sees these same things, 2 things, Allen is under constant pressure from a subpar line and his receivers have little to know separation and drop a lot of balls. On the other hand you have the stat worshipers that don't look at the player, they look at the team.

Posted
11 hours ago, Boyst62 said:

a good coach can correct footwork in an month.  a great coach cannot even fix mechanics in an off season.

Professional golfers will tear down their entire swing and rebuild it.   It's a series of complex positions that need to be duplicated perfectly where an error of 2 degrees is massive.  Suggesting that you can't fix a mechanical throwing issue with far greater tolerances is silly, especially when the majority of the cause is in the feet.

Just now, greeneblitz said:

Literally every competent anaylast that has gone over Allen's pre-draft tape sees these same things, 2 things, Allen is under constant pressure from a subpar line and his receivers have little to know separation and drop a lot of balls. On the other hand you have the stat worshipers that don't look at the player, they look at the team.

If you look at the breakdown where he misses the throw to the RB, there are literally 3 defensive players coming at him unblocked.      Every component matters.

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Posted
2 hours ago, Mike in Syracuse said:

Professional golfers will tear down their entire swing and rebuild it.   It's a series of complex positions that need to be duplicated perfectly where an error of 2 degrees is massive.  Suggesting that you can't fix a mechanical throwing issue with far greater tolerances is silly, especially when the majority of the cause is in the feet.

If you look at the breakdown where he misses the throw to the RB, there are literally 3 defensive players coming at him unblocked.      Every component matters.

I'm saying it is more difficult

Posted
2 hours ago, greeneblitz said:

Literally every competent anaylast that has gone over Allen's pre-draft tape sees these same things, 2 things, Allen is under constant pressure from a subpar line and his receivers have little to know separation and drop a lot of balls. On the other hand you have the stat worshipers that don't look at the player, they look at the team.

 

And on the Gripping Hand, we have Sal's analysis of throws where separation and drops weren't an issue - and a link to a Pro Day video of Allen in PJ's with no pressure (after several months working with Jordan Palmer) where some of the same accuracy issues were still there.

 

Please stop casting this as "Competent analysts see Pressure and Drops" vs "Stat Worshippers".  Competent analysts see the same thing on film: Allen's footwork is poor at times, and his accuracy (independent of pressure and drops) is sporadic (which plays into poor completion percentage).  He also makes some bad gameday decisions to throw.

 

This is not to dump on the kid, he's a Bill, I hope he comes into the league and kills it.  But he's got real development needs, and he's not going to be under less pressure or necessarily have better WR separation against NFL defenses. 

 

2 hours ago, Mike in Syracuse said:

Professional golfers will tear down their entire swing and rebuild it.   It's a series of complex positions that need to be duplicated perfectly where an error of 2 degrees is massive.  Suggesting that you can't fix a mechanical throwing issue with far greater tolerances is silly, especially when the majority of the cause is in the feet.

 

Mike,

I'm curious how many professional golfers have actually had success tearing down and rebuilding their entire swing and then gone on to greater success?

Shaw66 (I think) gave an anecdote about one of his kids working on his baseball swing, it would be great with the coach but then in the game, under pressure, he would revert.

 

And there's one difference which makes changing mechanics very difficult for QBs.  Not only are they under mental pressure, like baseball players, but they have to instantly read and react to the chess-game of defense, then throw in the face of a dock-worth of Flying Refrigerators targeting their ribcage.

 

I'm not so sure it's silly.  I do know that  a bunch of QB who have tried to improve their accuracy and claim to have seen improvement off-season, have failed to demonstrate same during live action.

Posted
3 hours ago, Mike in Syracuse said:

Professional golfers will tear down their entire swing and rebuild it.   It's a series of complex positions that need to be duplicated perfectly where an error of 2 degrees is massive.  Suggesting that you can't fix a mechanical throwing issue with far greater tolerances is silly, especially when the majority of the cause is in the feet.

 

How many PGA golfers are being blitzed by NFL linebackers during thir backswing...

Posted
45 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm not so sure it's silly.  I do know that  a bunch of QB who have tried to improve their accuracy and claim to have seen improvement off-season, have failed to demonstrate same during live action.

 

Agreed.   How many stories did we see of E.J. "fixing" his footwork during the offseason and training camp, only to see him revert back to bad old E.J. during live action?

 

Muscle memory is autonomic.   That's why it's so hard to fix, even with NFL coaching.    When the play breaks down and the player has to improvise, there's no way his 'learned' routine is going to come riding to the rescue.  It will be all reflex and natural tendencies, which in the case of Allen is what's so concerning...

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Posted

The only guy off hand that I can think of that completely rebuilt his throwing motion and was successful doing so was Rogers. Cal coaches were very bad teachers and had their QBs throwing like robots. It resulted in a rather large wind up. They held the ball up next their head at the start of their throwing motion. Slowly McCarthy and the Packers were able to get Rogers to hold the ball near his chest. 

Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, Boyst62 said:

with his strength and size combined with intellect he had all the positives to be at a much larger program.  his mechanics are not great from what i've seen.  i have checked out on a lot of football the last year and change so i don't know much about him but any time i've seen him throw in any clip he generally has poor footing or bad mechanics.

Every point you have just made about him is spot on. But what is encouraging is that as the evaluation process proceeded most of the evaluators have made the same observation that he has improved with his mechanical problems. When you watch some of his tape there are plays where he is stunningly sparkling and make plays that few can make. Interspersed with his knockout plays are mundane plays where he is off the mark. When the play is critiqued you can see the less than sterling setups and mechanics. Without question he is not a finished product. And without question he has an upside that few others can ever attain. The selection of Josh Allen not only was a great pick it was an exciting pick. I would rather take a risk for greatness rather than be timid and strive to be respectable. I am elated! The bus that Bandit is driving is the bus that I am also riding on. 

Edited by JohnC
  • Thank you (+1) 1
Posted
8 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Every point you have just made about him is spot on. But what is encouraging is that as the evaluation process proceeded most of the evaluators have made the same observation that he has improved with his mechanical problems. When you watch some of his tape there are plays where he is stunningly sparkling and make plays that few can make. Interspersed with his knockout plays are mundane plays where he is off the mark. When the play is critiqued you can see the less than sterling setups and mechanics. Without question he is not a finished product. And without question he has an upside that few others can ever attain. The selection of Josh Allen not only was a great pick it was an exciting pick. I would rather take a risk for greatness rather than be timid and strive to be respectable. I am elated! The bus that Bandit is driving is the bus that I am also riding on. 

Thanks for this!  By bringing it to light is not pessimism. It's just disciplined analysis. 

Posted
2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

And on the Gripping Hand, we have Sal's analysis of throws where separation and drops weren't an issue - and a link to a Pro Day video of Allen in PJ's with no pressure (after several months working with Jordan Palmer) where some of the same accuracy issues were still there.

 

Please stop casting this as "Competent analysts see Pressure and Drops" vs "Stat Worshippers".  Competent analysts see the same thing on film: Allen's footwork is poor at times, and his accuracy (independent of pressure and drops) is sporadic (which plays into poor completion percentage).  He also makes some bad gameday decisions to throw.

 

This is not to dump on the kid, he's a Bill, I hope he comes into the league and kills it.  But he's got real development needs, and he's not going to be under less pressure or necessarily have better WR separation against NFL defenses. 

 

 

Mike,

I'm curious how many professional golfers have actually had success tearing down and rebuilding their entire swing and then gone on to greater success?

Shaw66 (I think) gave an anecdote about one of his kids working on his baseball swing, it would be great with the coach but then in the game, under pressure, he would revert.

 

And there's one difference which makes changing mechanics very difficult for QBs.  Not only are they under mental pressure, like baseball players, but they have to instantly read and react to the chess-game of defense, then throw in the face of a dock-worth of Flying Refrigerators targeting their ribcage.

 

I'm not so sure it's silly.  I do know that  a bunch of QB who have tried to improve their accuracy and claim to have seen improvement off-season, have failed to demonstrate same during live action.

 

 

Tiger Woods has done it several times in his career.   He re-built his swing with Butch Harmon in 1997 after winning the Masters.   He did it again in 2004 with Hank Haney.  He had immense amount of success with both swing changes.   

Posted
5 hours ago, greeneblitz said:

Literally every competent anaylast that has gone over Allen's pre-draft tape sees these same things, 2 things, Allen is under constant pressure from a subpar line and his receivers have little to know separation and drop a lot of balls. On the other hand you have the stat worshipers that don't look at the player, they look at the team.

That's frankly not fair by a distance.

Every competent analyst that I've read has (in addition to your points) also said that he is functionally inaccurate with where he puts the ball. He says as much himself. I haven't watched 650 passes, but I've watched enough game tape to see that and I'm no scout.

Nobody, not even Metzelaars, suggests that the kid is accurate enough right now for the NFL. 

He's got all the rope in the world from me. But I keep coming back to something Dan Orlovsky said. Apparently some coach told Dan that he does everything great on 60 out of 65 plays. But the NFL QB has to do it right on 65 out of 65 plays because unlike in college, the defense on the other side is actually going to do their job right an awful lot too.

He has a long, long road. 

Posted
30 minutes ago, SMAKCruiser said:

(golfers with success after swing changes)

Tiger Woods has done it several times in his career.   He re-built his swing with Butch Harmon in 1997 after winning the Masters.   He did it again in 2004 with Hank Haney.  He had immense amount of success with both swing changes.   

 

OK, thanks, good to know.

Posted
17 hours ago, billspro said:

 

Well he improved both drastically at the senior bowl. Lets hope that continues. Bottom line is if Dabol is a good OC he will find a way to develop Allen. He has the best skill set of any QB to come out of the NFL draft, he is very raw though.

 

Daboll's coaching ability is the elephant in the room people aren't talking much about. Allen is USDA Grade A QB material.. but what will Daboll do with that?

 

I'm completely onboard with the Allen pick. However, the Daboll signing has me underwhelmed.

 

 

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