Positive Data on Allen: Part 1

[Mikie2times]

I hope it’s not a site violation to copy and paste previous posts. I did the study below about two weeks after the season ended.

 

I hated the Allen pick. He has so many traditional measures against him. I could go on for days on why I don’t like him, but I’m a Bills fan and I don’t want to feel this way when I know I can create a different narrative for myself. Why not choose positive vs negative when certain outcome doesn’t exist? That’s where I’m at. 

 

This will become a series of data based narratives that support Allen as a player. They are meant for my own therapy and I think others out there will appreciate it. The one below matters to me because it was at a point when I didn’t have a horse in the race.  

 

Busts are defined by any QB that did not start at least 64 games (4 seasons) in his career in the NFL. Active players were excluded from the sample on Busts unless near certain 64 game expectation exists (Derek Carr/62 games, etc). Active player are included toward winning%. 

 

Draft pick sample is from 2000 on

 

QB's who had 17.5% or more total yards from rushing in college drafted in 1st or 2nd round 

• Record Starting Games in NFL: 227 and 204 (52.7%)
• Bust Rate: 8 of 10 (80%)
• Qualifiers: Lamar Jackson

QB's who had between .5% and 17.5% total yards from rushing in college drafted in 1st or 2nd round  

• Record Starting Games 1,362 and 1,289 (51.4%)
• Bust Rate: 12 of 26 (46.2%)
• Qualifiers: Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, Sam Darnold

QB's drafted who had .5% or less total yards from rushing in college drafted in 1st or 2nd round  

• Record Starting Games 336 and 396 (45.9%)
• Bust Rate: 10 of 13 (76.9%)
• Qualifiers: Josh Rosen, Mason Rudolph

 

Analysis: This is one of the most dominant stat profiles in the study on who to avoid. It's a small sample, but you could see some logic behind the data. If you are running as a means to generate offense in college at a high rate you are also using that escape ability as a means to generate offense in the air through unconventional means. You will be less likely to be successful running the ball at the NFL level. Conversely at very low levels most QB's have negative career rushing yards in college. This could lend itself to poor pocket awareness.  

 

All and all the bust rate on outliers as it relates to yards gained on the ground is a staggering 18 of 23 (78%) with Rosen, Rudolph, and Jackson all being in outlier profiles. While the bust rate on non outlier profiles is just 46.2%, with prospects that include Mayfield, Allen, and Darnold. 

 

QB's with 9,300 or more career passing yards in college drafted in 1st or 2nd round

• Record Starting Games in NFL: 1,025 and 877 (53.9%)
• Bust Rate: 10 of 20 (50%)
• Qualifiers: Mason Rudolph, Baker Mayfield, Josh Rosen

QB's between 5,500 and 9,300 passing yards in college drafted in 1st or 2nd round 

• Record starting Games: 490 and 708 (40.9%) 
• Bust Rate: 19 of 24 (79.2%)
• Qualifiers: Sam Darnold, Lamar Jackson

QB's with less than 5,500 career passing yards in college drafted in the 1st or 2nd round  

• Record Starting Games: 410 and 304 (57.4%)
• Bust Rate: 1 of 5 (20%)
• Qualifiers: Josh Allen

 

Analysis: Passing yards/production in the air does matter, especially when you partner it with NFL scouts giving you a high grade. Players that are above 9,300 yards in large part have started since day one in college, have been either consistently productive or excessively productive over 2-3 years. More likely to have stayed a full 4 years improving maturation. Rudolph, Mayfield, and Rosen fit this profile, with Mayfield having the highest career passing yardage numbers out of any 1st or 2nd round pick drafted since 2000. 

 

Once you go under 5,500 yards you see a clear trend emerge. Very high draft picks. These tend to be the freak type QB's that either explode on the scene or have measurable's off the charts. It's not common to see this occur but we likely will see Allen fall into this profile.

 

Middle of the rode QB's on the production front have been awful since the 2000 draft, 40.9% winning % and nearly an 80% bust rate on 24 players. Think EJ/JP, they fit in this group. They have the measurable's but generally speaking they weren't able to translate that into elite production on the field (Jackson would be an exception to that statement). Scouts should be very cautious of this combination.

 

So what does the passing data look like when you get out of elite draft pick status? 

Pretty much the same. .....

 

QB's with 9,300 or more career passing yards in college drafted outside the top 10 but selected in the 1st or 2nd round  

• Record Starting Games 500 and 416 (54.6%)
• Bust Rate: 7 of 12 (58.3%)

QB's between 5,500 and 9,300 passing yards in college drafted outside the top 10 but selected in the 1st or 2nd round  

• Record starting Games: 271 and 380 (41.6%) 
• Bust Rate: 16 of 17 (94.1%)

QB's with less than 5,500 career passing yards in college drafted outside the top 10 but selected in 1st or 2nd round   

• Record Starting Games: 107 and 60 (64.1%)
• Bust Rate: 1 of 2 (50%)

 

Analysis:  Middle level bust rate is nearly 100%, that number is spared thanks to Jay Cutler. 

 

Final Analysis: The only two QB's to avoid all of the high bust rate levels are Mayfield and Allen. Darnold, Rosen, Rudolph all fit in at least one of the larger bust rate groupings. Jackson fits in 2 of them.  I know it's far from a sure fire selection guide. I do find some of the bust rate data to be a tad overwhelming to not give it any merit. Last year Mitch fell into the same grouping as Allen, avoiding any major bust categories but in the very low production buckets. Then Watson and Mahomes fell into the same categories as Mayfield with both those QB's also avoiding any of the major bust categories.   

Edited April 27, 2018 by KzooMike

[MarlinTheMagician]

This is a lot to digest.  Thanks for providing.  I need to pick through it more carefully - but for now I have to go pray good guys fall to us!  I am pleased a Rosen guy can find good in Allen, and respect the ability to be objective enough to do so!

[Bing Bong]

Good stuff. I'd like to see a table or data sometime.

 

I;'d like to know your bust players. Vick, Cam, Kaepernick were not busts. But I don't know if they hit the % threshold, they all ran a lot in college. And I get your cutoff date but McNabb and Culpepper were not busts either.

[NoSaint]

I’d be curious how many cutoffs you chose as meaningful before attaching names vs how many cutoffs were created after lining guys up. 

 

Choosing the meaningful threshold without bias can be tricky in these 

[Mikie2times]

15 minutes ago, PetermanThrew5Picks said:

Good stuff. I'd like to see a table or data sometime.

 

I;'d like to know your bust players. Vick, Cam, Kaepernick were not busts. But I don't know if they hit the % threshold, they all ran a lot in college. And I get your cutoff date but McNabb and Culpepper were not busts either.

I think I still have the data. I did that on my old work laptop and I'm pretty sure I copied it all over. If not it was quick to do, I can maybe do it over.  Criteria was simple, 64 starts or more or an overwhelming probability of 64 starts defined if it was a bust or not. I used 64 starts because teams try and give these players chances, but it rarely extends past 3 years, generally a max of 4 and I felt defining bad was easier than defining good. While still subjective, I would say most people would feel a high round QB not making 64 starts or more as a fail. If they make more than 64 it doesn't necessarily mean it's a huge win either, but few even make it that far along, so some success is likely at that point. 

 

 

9 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

I’d be curious how many cutoffs you chose as meaningful before attaching names vs how many cutoffs were created after lining guys up. 

 

Choosing the meaningful threshold without bias can be tricky in these 

Some gaps in data is how I tiered it. You could adjust the thresholds a decent amount and get similar data. I get what your saying though.  

 

[NoSaint]

4 minutes ago, KzooMike said:

I think I still have the data. I did that on my old work laptop and I'm pretty sure I copied it all over. If not it was quick to do, I can maybe do it over.  Criteria was simple, 64 starts or more or an overwhelming probability of 64 starts defined if it was a bust or not. I used 64 starts because teams try and give these players chances, but it rarely extends past 3 years, generally a max of 4 and I felt defining bad was easier than defining good. While still subjective, I would say most people would feel a high round QB not making 64 starts or more as a fail. If they make more than 64 it doesn't necessarily mean it's a huge win either, but few even make it that far along, so some success is likely at that point. 

 

 

Some gaps in data is how I tiered it. You could adjust the thresholds a decent amount and get similar data. I get what your saying though.  

 

 

 

Totally fair- and I was genuinely curious. Clearly spent a lot of time and I appreciate the effort

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, KzooMike said:

I hope it’s not a site violation to copy and paste previous posts. I did the study below about two weeks after the season ended.

 

Not afaik as long as you don't go nuts and plop it in every thread.  Most of us just link the post, but it's your stuff to do as you like.

 

3 hours ago, KzooMike said:

(previous post)

Busts are defined by any QB that did not start at least 64 games (4 seasons) in his career in the NFL. Active players were excluded from the sample on Busts unless near certain 64 game expectation exists (Derek Carr/62 games, etc). Active player are included toward winning%.

 

Final Analysis: The only two QB's to avoid all of the high bust rate levels are Mayfield and Allen. Darnold, Rosen, Rudolph all fit in at least one of the larger bust rate groupings. Jackson fits in 2 of them.  I know it's far from a sure fire selection guide. I do find some of the bust rate data to be a tad overwhelming to not give it any merit. Last year Mitch fell into the same grouping as Allen, avoiding any major bust categories but in the very low production buckets. Then Watson and Mahomes fell into the same categories as Mayfield with both those QB's also avoiding any of the major bust categories.   

 

I find your study interesting.

 

I still have the same question I had when you first shared it: what QB fall into each of your categories?

 

As I recall when I asked previously, you told me you'd get right on providing that info, as soon as you finished your high level business meetings and picked the lint off your dachshund's sweater

[beerme1]

Holy !@#$ dude. How am I supposed to read this while draft drinking! Go Bills.

 

I appreciate your effort on this and showing that we actually did pick wisely so to speak. But then again I think Allen is going to be a stud.

 

Thanks!

[Mikie2times]

34 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Not afaik as long as you don't go nuts and plop it in every thread.  Most of us just link the post, but it's your stuff to do as you like.

 

 

I find your study interesting.

 

I still have the same question I had when you first shared it: what QB fall into each of your categories?

 

As I recall when I asked previously, you told me you'd get right on providing that info, as soon as you finished your high level business meetings and picked the lint off your dachshund's sweater

I have way too many high level business meetings lately. You could almost call them 2nd high level. Just short of 3rd which is almost as high as it can get.