SoCal Deek Posted May 29, 2018 Posted May 29, 2018 23 minutes ago, buffaloaggie said: Watkins won't fail, because all he'll be is a decoy, as you mention, for Kelce, Hunt, and Hill. A very expensive decoy though. Hill is gonna go nuts this year. Tyreek Hill's catch rate vs targets is right near the top of the league, and he's just scratching the surface. Mahomes won't fail because he has Andy Reid. If Sammy is nothing but a decoy, then he's already failed. He'll be on his third team since entering the league and on a rapid decline from being a sure thing, to a starting #1, to a sometimes #2, and now a decoy. I think that's the very definition of "fail".
Zerovoltz Posted May 30, 2018 Author Posted May 30, 2018 Not gloating, bragging etc...just repeating what I have heard locally from KC OTA's.....take it for what it's worth...it's practice....but Sammy Watkins made a couple of spectacular one handed catches (there is film out there, if you search twitter for it.) ...Lots of comments on how smooth and fast he is...sharp sharp route runner. I think KC overpaid by quite a bit for the guy, but he does have a chance to make it look like a respectable contract in this offense...going to be designed to find the open guy/one on one match up and expect that guy to win most of the time....can't double cover Hill, Kelce, Watkins and Hunt every play...someone will be in man or have a matchup to exploit...that is the idea anyhow...If Watkins can "win" his matchup, Mahomes can get him the ball. Watkins matchup win numbers with the RAMS were actually VERY VERY good (I can get the metric if you want me to go hunt it down) ....Goff didn't exploit his wins at a high pct. Anyhow...it's OTA's.....looking forward to preseason with pads on to get a real idea of what Watkins is going to look like in KC.
GunnerBill Posted May 30, 2018 Posted May 30, 2018 Watkins can play. If his head and his heart are in it together he will be an excellent addition in KC.
Thurman#1 Posted May 30, 2018 Posted May 30, 2018 On 4/28/2018 at 5:20 AM, Zerovotlz said: Chiefs Get : QB Pat Mahomes (R1 pick 10, 2017) Bills Get: CB Tre White (R1 pick 27, 2017) Pick 91 (R3 pick 91, 2017) packaged with other picks for trade up to 37. Rams used pick on S John Johnson. Bills go to (R2 pick 37, 2017) and select WR Zay Jones. Pick 21 (R1 pick 21, 2018) packaged with other picks for trade up to 16. Ravens traded out with Titans who used the pick on LB Rashaan Evans. Bills go to (R1 pick 16, 2018) and select LB Tremaine Edmunds. Esentially, after it was all said and done, it was Mahomes for Tre White, Zay Jones and Tremaine Edmunds. Thank you. Tre White, part of Zay Jones and part of Tremaine Edmunds, right? The Bills had to throw in other assets to get Jones and Edmunds, correct?
Thurman#1 Posted May 30, 2018 Posted May 30, 2018 1 hour ago, GunnerBill said: Watkins can play. If his head and his heart are in it together he will be an excellent addition in KC. Agreed. If he stays healthy and gets on the same page as his QB (and/or vice versa) he has a chance to be a very good one.
The Now Moment Posted May 31, 2018 Posted May 31, 2018 (edited) On 5/25/2018 at 8:05 PM, GunnerBill said: My grade isn't about where I think they wil be picked. I know how the league works. My grades are entirely my take on what I see on their tape. So just looking at what the QB is now and not factoring in what he may become? I think that is a very poor way to judge a prospect at that position. Potential is a huge piece. It's a crap shoot, the best prospects can turn into busts and then a guy stacking shelves at a grocery store becomes a HOF... Edited May 31, 2018 by Buffalo30
GunnerBill Posted May 31, 2018 Posted May 31, 2018 4 hours ago, Buffalo30 said: So just looking at what the QB is now and not factoring in what he may become? I think that is a very poor way to judge a prospect at that position. Potential is a huge piece. It's a crap shoot, the best prospects can turn into busts and then a guy stacking shelves at a grocery store becomes a HOF... I do factor in what I think they could become but I probably give it less weight than others do. As a result, especially at Quarterback, I tend to be lower on the guys who are seen as high ceiling projects. You can think my method is wrong... that is fine. I will absolutely stand by it.
Aussie Joe Posted May 31, 2018 Posted May 31, 2018 What if Watson turns out better than Mahomes? Do the Chiefs get any blowback for that choice?
The Now Moment Posted May 31, 2018 Posted May 31, 2018 6 hours ago, GunnerBill said: I do factor in what I think they could become but I probably give it less weight than others do. As a result, especially at Quarterback, I tend to be lower on the guys who are seen as high ceiling projects. You can think my method is wrong... that is fine. I will absolutely stand by it. I just think it goes against how this league thinks. Potential is a big factor in grading prospects for scouts. I just don't understand why anyone grading a prospect would leave out what their potential is. I know potential can change but based on what the prospects are able to do now, there is certainly a reasonable projection that can be made.
thebandit27 Posted May 31, 2018 Posted May 31, 2018 On 5/30/2018 at 4:22 AM, Zerovotlz said: Not gloating, bragging etc...just repeating what I have heard locally from KC OTA's.....take it for what it's worth...it's practice....but Sammy Watkins made a couple of spectacular one handed catches (there is film out there, if you search twitter for it.) ...Lots of comments on how smooth and fast he is...sharp sharp route runner. I think KC overpaid by quite a bit for the guy, but he does have a chance to make it look like a respectable contract in this offense...going to be designed to find the open guy/one on one match up and expect that guy to win most of the time....can't double cover Hill, Kelce, Watkins and Hunt every play...someone will be in man or have a matchup to exploit...that is the idea anyhow...If Watkins can "win" his matchup, Mahomes can get him the ball. Watkins matchup win numbers with the RAMS were actually VERY VERY good (I can get the metric if you want me to go hunt it down) ....Goff didn't exploit his wins at a high pct. Anyhow...it's OTA's.....looking forward to preseason with pads on to get a real idea of what Watkins is going to look like in KC. Watkins is legit. The only thing missing from his game has been a consistent supply of WR1 targets, and nobody can seem to put their finger on why that's true. There has been one stretch of games where he got WR1 targets--the final 9 games of 2015; he was the 4th-most targeted WR in the NFL over that stretch. In those 9 games, he out-performed every WR in the league not named Antonio Brown.
GunnerBill Posted May 31, 2018 Posted May 31, 2018 2 hours ago, Buffalo30 said: I just think it goes against how this league thinks. Potential is a big factor in grading prospects for scouts. I just don't understand why anyone grading a prospect would leave out what their potential is. I know potential can change but based on what the prospects are able to do now, there is certainly a reasonable projection that can be made. I don't leave it out. This is a misunderstanding - but I value what is there on tape more highly, even if it is there on tape but not as often as you might need it in the league.
White Linen Posted May 31, 2018 Posted May 31, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, GunnerBill said: I don't leave it out. This is a misunderstanding - but I value what is there on tape more highly, even if it is there on tape but not as often as you might need it in the league. With respect that you've put in some time watching Allen - it's flawed because there isn't even a reliable metric to translate it to the NFL. You know there's been plenty of QB's with great tape in college that didn't make it and as many with ok tape in college that have made it. Tape lies - that's true. Additionally we're not privy to all the information and I'll give you an example: There's been many times I've seen an INT or incompletion and said "what the heck is the QB doing", then the replay shows the WR slipped a little in his break and it wasn't the QB's fault - or later I found out the WR ran the wrong route. There's just so much we don't know even when watching the game. You can't just watch Allen's games and say tape is first and potential is not first. I just find it to be incredibly unreliable. Edited May 31, 2018 by White Linen 1
Chuck Wagon Posted May 31, 2018 Posted May 31, 2018 I'd like it a lot better if the Zay Jones part was Ju Ju Smith-Schuster, Dalvin Cook or Alvin Kamara.
White Linen Posted May 31, 2018 Posted May 31, 2018 1 hour ago, 26CornerBlitz said: I guess he doesn't have as strong an arm as everyone thought. If you can't overthrow any receiver on the roster - there's going to be a ton of balls that come up short or get picked off. 1
Rochesterfan Posted May 31, 2018 Posted May 31, 2018 On 5/30/2018 at 4:40 AM, GunnerBill said: Watkins can play. If his head and his heart are in it together he will be an excellent addition in KC. Agreed - what will be interesting is if he is double teamed as has been the case and was the case last year and in this Andy Reid system - Mahomes targets others significantly more - does his head and heart start to no longer be in it. Watkins has always had the talent, but something has always prevented the break-out - be it QB, injury, or how defenses play him.
26CornerBlitz Posted May 31, 2018 Posted May 31, 2018 Just now, White Linen said: I guess he doesn't have as strong an arm as everyone thought. If you can't overthrow any receiver on the roster - there's going to be a ton of balls that come up short or get picked off. You might just want to read that again unless you're kidding.
White Linen Posted May 31, 2018 Posted May 31, 2018 28 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said: You might just want to read that again unless you're kidding. Kidding 1
GunnerBill Posted May 31, 2018 Posted May 31, 2018 (edited) 4 hours ago, White Linen said: With respect that you've put in some time watching Allen - it's flawed because there isn't even a reliable metric to translate it to the NFL. You know there's been plenty of QB's with great tape in college that didn't make it and as many with ok tape in college that have made it. Tape lies - that's true. Additionally we're not privy to all the information and I'll give you an example: There's been many times I've seen an INT or incompletion and said "what the heck is the QB doing", then the replay shows the WR slipped a little in his break and it wasn't the QB's fault - or later I found out the WR ran the wrong route. There's just so much we don't know even when watching the game. You can't just watch Allen's games and say tape is first and potential is not first. I just find it to be incredibly unreliable. There are things on tape that give you clues though. It is not just is this guy good in college or not. Some things on tape translate and some don't. Edited May 31, 2018 by GunnerBill
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