The Book is Closed on the Mahomes Trade

[BADOLBILZ]

 

The most interesting part to me is that the Chiefs got their QB from the pick they acquired from the Bills..............then turned around and signed the guy who had been the Bills #1WR in Sammy Watkins.

 

I felt that Tre White was going to be a stud when they drafted him............but it should be Mahomes or Watson throwing to Sammy Watkins in Buffalo this year.

 

I like the Josh Allen gamble but they kinda' kicked the QB decision down the road one season too many IMO.........lead to them dumping A LOT of talent......studs Watkins and Cordy Glenn at two of the leagues' "money" positions...........as they desperately tried to assure they had the draft assets to move up for a QB in 2018.

 

Now they have on paper a utterly suspect OL and a terrible WR corps.    All other things being equal KC's young QB has a MUCH better supporting cast than Buffalo's will and that matters a lot.    

 

The common thread between Goff and Wentz last year was their teams loading up on supporting talent.

 

People who assume the Bills will just spend a bundle in FA next offseason to replace lost or missing assets on offense are making a very big assumption.    

Edited May 27, 2018 by BADOLBILZ

[Buffalo716]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The most interesting part to me is that the Chiefs got their QB from the pick they acquired from the Bills..............then turned around and signed the guy who had been the Bills #1WR in Sammy Watkins.

 

I felt that Tre White was going to be a stud when they drafted him............but it should be Mahomes or Watson throwing to Sammy Watkins in Buffalo this year.

 

I like the Josh Allen gamble but they kinda' kicked the QB decision down the road one season too many IMO.........lead to them dumping A LOT of talent......studs Watkins and Cordy Glenn at two of the leagues' "money" positions...........as they desperately tried to assure they had the draft assets to move up for a QB in 2018.

 

Now they have on paper a utterly suspect OL and a terrible WR corps.    All other things being equal KC's young QB has a MUCH better supporting cast than Buffalo's will and that matters a lot.    

 

The common thread between Goff and Wentz last year was their teams loading up on supporting talent.

 

People who assume the Bills will just spend a bundle in FA next offseason to replace lost or missing assets on offense are making a very big assumption.    

You assume that is if McDermott wanted Watson or Mahomes.

 

maybe he did not and he obviously didn’t want Sammy either.

 

its not an ideal situation for a young QB but Mahomes and Allen are both very similar prospects,I even had a higher grade on Allen. So at the end of the day I can live with Tre+ Allen

 

i didn’t like the Sammy trade but I’m over it. He’s cuckoo for coco puffs

[BADOLBILZ]

11 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

You assume that is if McDermott wanted Watson or Mahomes.

 

maybe he did not and he obviously didn’t want Sammy either.

 

its not an ideal situation for a young QB but Mahomes and Allen are both very similar prospects,I even had a higher grade on Allen. So at the end of the day I can live with Tre+ Allen

 

i didn’t like the Sammy trade but I’m over it. He’s cuckoo for coco puffs

 

I am not sure why people don't understand that a decision is not made right or excused merely by the degree of conviction of the decision maker.

 

Mahomes rode the pine all year but Watson had an absolutely historic start to his career...........how does saying McDermott didn't want Watson make McDermott look wise?

 

Beane and McD will most likely succeed or fail due to the QB decisions in the 2017/2018 drafts...............their conviction means nothing at all..........only the results matter.

 

Although I do sympathize with Beane if Allen doesn't work out because he is tied to McDermott so he will have to own McDermott's 2017 draft even though he was not with the organization.    Not hiring Beane in January made no sense but sure did confuse a lot of media who then wondered aloud........"hey it's so out of the box to bring in the matching GM AFTER the HC and lame duck GM have made a full offseason worth of key personnel decisions........maybe other teams will do the same!"?

 

 

[oldmanfan]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The most interesting part to me is that the Chiefs got their QB from the pick they acquired from the Bills..............then turned around and signed the guy who had been the Bills #1WR in Sammy Watkins.

 

I felt that Tre White was going to be a stud when they drafted him............but it should be Mahomes or Watson throwing to Sammy Watkins in Buffalo this year.

 

I like the Josh Allen gamble but they kinda' kicked the QB decision down the road one season too many IMO.........lead to them dumping A LOT of talent......studs Watkins and Cordy Glenn at two of the leagues' "money" positions...........as they desperately tried to assure they had the draft assets to move up for a QB in 2018.

 

Now they have on paper a utterly suspect OL and a terrible WR corps.    All other things being equal KC's young QB has a MUCH better supporting cast than Buffalo's will and that matters a lot.    

 

The common thread between Goff and Wentz last year was their teams loading up on supporting talent.

 

People who assume the Bills will just spend a bundle in FA next offseason to replace lost or missing assets on offense are making a very big assumption.    

I liked Watkins a lot, thought it was a smart move to trade up and draft him, but time has shown he can't be considered a stud WR.

[thebandit27]

3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I am not sure why people don't understand that a decision is not made right or excused merely by the degree of conviction of the decision maker.

 

Mahomes rode the pine all year but Watson had an absolutely historic start to his career...........how does saying McDermott didn't want Watson make McDermott look wise?

 

Beane and McD will most likely succeed or fail due to the QB decisions in the 2017/2018 drafts...............their conviction means nothing at all..........only the results matter.

 

Although I do sympathize with Beane if Allen doesn't work out because he is tied to McDermott so he will have to own McDermott's 2017 draft even though he was not with the organization.    Not hiring Beane in January made no sense but sure did confuse a lot of media who then wondered aloud........"hey it's so out of the box to bring in the matching GM AFTER the HC and lame duck GM have made a full offseason worth of key personnel decisions........maybe other teams will do the same!"?

 

 

 

It seems that the deciding factor in kicking the decision down the road a year was that McDermott didn't have his GM and personnel department in place yet.

 

As a details guy who takes the long approach, I can understand why he felt that way. Doesn't mean I agree with the results.

[Buffalo716]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I am not sure why people don't understand that a decision is not made right or excused merely by the degree of conviction of the decision maker.

 

Mahomes rode the pine all year but Watson had an absolutely historic start to his career...........how does saying McDermott didn't want Watson make McDermott look wise?

 

Beane and McD will most likely succeed or fail due to the QB decisions in the 2017/2018 drafts...............their conviction means nothing at all..........only the results matter.

 

Although I do sympathize with Beane if Allen doesn't work out because he is tied to McDermott so he will have to own McDermott's 2017 draft even though he was not with the organization.    Not hiring Beane in January made no sense but sure did confuse a lot of media who then wondered aloud........"hey it's so out of the box to bring in the matching GM AFTER the HC and lame duck GM have made a full offseason worth of key personnel decisions........maybe other teams will do the same!"?

 

 

 

I never made an excuse or said it was right. Watson can be a superstar and yea it would have been nice to draft him 

 

but if he wasn’t going to be a bill it’s a moot point. Of course McDermott and Beanes tenure are tied with Allen’s success or failure 

 

I don’t make excuses in football. Not injuries, not lack of talent, not lack of WRs, nothing. For 100 years it’s been next man up and everybody prepares as a starter, atleast on good teams

 

You are as good as your weakest link

[BuffaloTX]

On 5/25/2018 at 6:34 PM, Augie said:

 

To be fair, a book IS closed before you open it to read the first page, right? ?

Not if it's still being written

 

[JohnC]

On ‎5‎/‎25‎/‎2018 at 8:05 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

My grade isn't about where I think they wil be picked. I know how the league works. My grades are entirely my take on what I see on their tape. 

I say this respectfully yet critically that your grades with respect to the qb position are skewed to the point that they lose relevancy and applicability when it comes to the draft. The point of evaluating and scoring players relates to the draft. If the draft positioning is left out of your laborious endeavor for the most important position in the game then what is the point of doing it?

 

You need to modify your scoring and incorporate it to the reality of the bigger picture. My point is simple: Being pure is not necessarily being real. Being hard headed may be useful in head butting an adversary in a fight but when it comes to the draft and evaluating qbs it loses its usefulness. I'm offering some friendly advice on this matter that you stubbornly adhere to.  ? 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, JohnC said:

I say this respectfully yet critically that your grades with respect to the qb position are skewed to the point that they lose relevancy and applicability when it comes to the draft. The point of evaluating and scoring players relates to the draft. If the draft positioning is left out of your laborious endeavor for the most important position in the game then what is the point of doing it?

 

You need to modify your scoring and incorporate it to the reality of the bigger picture. My point is simple: Being pure is not necessarily being real. Being hard headed may be useful in head butting an adversary in a fight but when it comes to the draft and evaluating qbs it loses its usefulness. I'm offering some friendly advice on this matter that you stubbornly adhere to.  ? 

 

Totally disagree. I have no desire for group think. 

[oldmanfan]

I wish they would have drafted Watson.  I'm glad they didn't draft Mahomes.  Has any guy coining out with his pedigree: Southwest Conference, single read offense, never playing from under center, ever done anything in the league?

[JohnC]

38 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Totally disagree. I have no desire for group think. 

The group think you claim not to want to be a part of are made up of the professionals who make the selections on draft day. As an example while you give Mahomes a third round grade Andy Reid who is considered knowledgeable about the qb position was willing to trade a future #1 pick to Buffalo last year in order to move up to select him. He saw enough of him in practice to be willing to trade his established franchise qb in order to risk him being the franchise qb with no safety net behind him. Yet you rated him as a third round prospect. There is a disconnect here. 

 

Again, the group think that you want no association with had all the four qb needy teams having Allen under serious consideration with their very high first round picks. Cleveland had the first pick in the draft and undoubtedly they were considering him as their first pick. The Bills were willing to deal with the Giants, Denver,Cincinnati and Indianapolis to move up near the top of the draft to select Allen while giving up significant assets to make a deal. Arizona tried to move up ahead of us to get Allen but couldn't do so then settled for moving up to get Rosen. 

 

Gunner, come back a little more to the working pack. Being outside the wide boundaries of the pros for the sake of being an outlier is not going to get your voice heard. If not, your voice will not be heard because it will be too far out in the distant. 

[BADOLBILZ]

5 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

It seems that the deciding factor in kicking the decision down the road a year was that McDermott didn't have his GM and personnel department in place yet.

 

As a details guy who takes the long approach, I can understand why he felt that way. Doesn't mean I agree with the results.

 

 

Shots not taken at the QB position that result in success for another team while you struggle at the position..........are absolutely no less damning than misses on your resume though.  

 

Buddy Nix and Russell Wilson are tied to each other in Bills lore.........he too would choose no QB until it's time.......so imagine actually trading a first round pick that turns into someone else's franchise QB........that is actually worse than whiffing on your own.

 

You really can't hide in the NFL..........you will be held accountable either way so it's a mistake to think that "I wasn't ready" is an excuse.   A reason?  Sure.  But not an excuse.

[GunnerBill]

29 minutes ago, JohnC said:

The group think you claim not to want to be a part of are made up of the professionals who make the selections on draft day. As an example while you give Mahomes a third round grade Andy Reid who is considered knowledgeable about the qb position was willing to trade a future #1 pick to Buffalo last year in order to move up to select him. He saw enough of him in practice to be willing to trade his established franchise qb in order to risk him being the franchise qb with no safety net behind him. Yet you rated him as a third round prospect. There is a disconnect here. 

 

Again, the group think that you want no association with had all the four qb needy teams having Allen under serious consideration with their very high first round picks. Cleveland had the first pick in the draft and undoubtedly they were considering him as their first pick. The Bills were willing to deal with the Giants, Denver,Cincinnati and Indianapolis to move up near the top of the draft to select Allen while giving up significant assets to make a deal. Arizona tried to move up ahead of us to get Allen but couldn't do so then settled for moving up to get Rosen. 

 

Gunner, come back a little more to the working pack. Being outside the wide boundaries of the pros for the sake of being an outlier is not going to get your voice heard. If not, your voice will not be heard because it will be too far out in the distant. 

 

I am not being outside for the sake of being an outlier. I am giving an absolute fair and unbiased evaluation of what I see. If Andy Reid sees something different good luck to him. Is he more likely to be right than me? Sure. But it is the people who start second guessing their own evaluations because of what the league might think that get themselves into trouble. 

 

I was higher on Dak Prescott than most of the league was if we apply your same criteria. I had Dak as a 2nd rounder and went in the 4th. Am I suddenly to be more trusted than the 32 GMs who passed on him twice more before he was picked in the 4th round comp pick zone? 

 

Some people you will be higher on, some people you will be lower on. Sometimes you will be right and sometimes you will be wrong. Have a process, be objective and stick with what you see and don't get drawn into seeing what other people tell you that you should. That is the only way to do it. 

[BADOLBILZ]

5 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

I never made an excuse or said it was right. Watson can be a superstar and yea it would have been nice to draft him 

 

but if he wasn’t going to be a bill it’s a moot point. Of course McDermott and Beanes tenure are tied with Allen’s success or failure 

 

I don’t make excuses in football. Not injuries, not lack of talent, not lack of WRs, nothing. For 100 years it’s been next man up and everybody prepares as a starter, atleast on good teams

 

You are as good as your weakest link

 

 

1) I don't think we are talking about the same league.   The NFL is not truly a next man up league.    It's not.    It's a who has the QB, who has the coach and who has health kinda' league.

 

2) Just because a QB wasn't the next man on your board doesn't mean it's a moot point when you don't take one and he pans out while you struggle to fill the position.    Fireable offenses aren't moot points.   Critical mistakes?  Yes. Moot points?   No.

 

Your pop warner rah-rah attitude is commendable but totally unrealistic wrt professional football.

 

[3rdand12]

6 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

It seems that the deciding factor in kicking the decision down the road a year was that McDermott didn't have his GM and personnel department in place yet.

 

As a details guy who takes the long approach, I can understand why he felt that way. Doesn't mean I agree with the results.

yep. agreed

 Perhaps no one trusted Whaley's scouts?  and McD knew he was over his head with Offense, aaaannnd Rico was not the long term answer.

Patience that few have left, I do.

They of course were setting up for this past draft in bringing in the QB.
I won't fault them for not taking a top ranked QB last year

Edited May 28, 2018 by 3rdand12

[JohnC]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not being outside for the sake of being an outlier. I am giving an absolute fair and unbiased evaluation of what I see. If Andy Reid sees something different good luck to him. Is he more likely to be right than me? Sure. But it is the people who start second guessing their own evaluations because of what the league might think that get themselves into trouble. 

 

I was higher on Dak Prescott than most of the league was if we apply your same criteria. I had Dak as a 2nd rounder and went in the 4th. Am I suddenly to be more trusted than the 32 GMs who passed on him twice more before he was picked in the 4th round comp pick zone? 

 

Some people you will be higher on, some people you will be lower on. Sometimes you will be right and sometimes you will be wrong. Have a process, be objective and stick with what you see and don't get drawn into seeing what other people tell you that you should. That is the only way to do it. 

You have your system and I respect that. Where I diverge from your approach is that I consider evaluating qbs different from evaluating other positions. In my mind every aspect/category in the evaluation of the qb has to be circumscribed with the consideration if the player under examination has the ability to be a franchise qb. With respect to the qb position, more than any other position, it's not about the breakdown of the parts but whether the whole goes beyond the particulars. 

 

What I'm saying is because of the nature of the position there needs to be a qualitative difference in the manner of evaluating the prospect. For me, apparently less so than for you, there should be an intuitive component for the evaluator when scrutinizing a player. That is a tricky challenge when you are scoring a player. In my view all the top four qbs in this draft class should have had first round grades attached to them. And from what I have read the top four qbs in this draft class did have first round grades attached to them by the overwhelming majority of teams. 

 

Make no mistake what I'm saying here. I'm not saying you are wrong; however, I am saying that I respectfully disagree with you. And so does the corpulent Andy Reid. 

[3rdand12]

2 minutes ago, JohnC said:

You have your system and I respect that. Where I diverge from your approach is that I consider evaluating qbs different from evaluating other positions. In my mind every aspect/category in the evaluation of the qb has to be circumscribed with the consideration if the player under examination has the ability to be a franchise qb. With respect to the qb position, more than any other position, it's not about the breakdown of the parts but whether the whole goes beyond the particulars. 

 

What I'm saying is because of the nature of the position there needs to be a qualitative difference in the manner of evaluating the prospect. For me, apparently less so than for you, there should be an intuitive component for the evaluator when scrutinizing a player. That is a tricky challenge when you are scoring a player. In my view all the top four qbs in this draft class should have had first round grades attached to them. And from what I have read the top four qbs in this draft class did have first round grades attached to them by the overwhelming majority of teams. 

 

Make no mistake what I'm saying here. I'm not saying you are wrong; however, I am saying that I respectfully disagree with you. And so does the corpulent Andy Reid. 

You certainly  make fine arguments for your case. No matter the topic.
Even Bill must take some pleasure as to how you described his thinking as outlier.
 

Well done to both of you for quality discourse !

i can see both points rather clearly and respect that .

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, JohnC said:

You have your system and I respect that. Where I diverge from your approach is that I consider evaluating qbs different from evaluating other positions. In my mind every aspect/category in the evaluation of the qb has to be circumscribed with the consideration if the player under examination has the ability to be a franchise qb. With respect to the qb position, more than any other position, it's not about the breakdown of the parts but whether the whole goes beyond the particulars. 

 

What I'm saying is because of the nature of the position there needs to be a qualitative difference in the manner of evaluating the prospect. For me, apparently less so than for you, there should be an intuitive component for the evaluator when scrutinizing a player. That is a tricky challenge when you are scoring a player. In my view all the top four qbs in this draft class should have had first round grades attached to them. And from what I have read the top four qbs in this draft class did have first round grades attached to them by the overwhelming majority of teams. 

 

Make no mistake what I'm saying here. I'm not saying you are wrong; however, I am saying that I respectfully disagree with you. And so does the corpulent Andy Reid. 

 

I don't dismiss the value of the position at all. That is absolutely baked into my evaluations. My answer to your can they be a franchise QB test on Allen and Mahomes was "unlikely". 

 

Whether I am wrong on Josh Allen or not remains to be seen. I really hope I am. On Mahomes I don't really care one way or the other whether I was right... but my process did not fail to factor in how important QBs are. Your view seems to be "any consensus top prospect is worth a 1st round pick on them." History shows that is absolutely not the case. Where Allen or indeed Mahomes fall on that scale is a story yet to be written. 

 

I am going to leave it there because someone will no doubt take the opportunity to call me an Allen hater or a bitter Josh Rosen fanboy. Neither of which are the actual point of what I am saying in this thread. 

 

 

[JohnC]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't dismiss the value of the position at all. That is absolutely baked into my evaluations. My answer to your can they be a franchise QB test on Allen and Mahomes was "unlikely". 

 

Whether I am wrong on Josh Allen or not remains to be seen. I really hope I am. On Mahomes I don't really care one way or the other whether I was right... but my process did not fail to factor in how important QBs are. Your view seems to be "any consensus top prospect is worth a 1st round pick on them." History shows that is absolutely not the case. Where Allen or indeed Mahomes fall on that scale is a story yet to be written. 

 

I am going to leave it there because someone will no doubt take the opportunity to call me an Allen hater or a bitter Josh Rosen fanboy. Neither of which are the actual point of what I am saying in this thread. 

 

 

We are two ships on the ocean passing in the night. That's alright. I have no problem with your take whether I agree with it or not. It is still well reasoned and worthy of consideration. 

 

With respect to the Rosen and Allen debate and comparison I had Rosen as my preferred qb. But I understand why the Bills selected Allen. As I have already stated I would have been more than satisfied with any of the top four rated qbs in this draft class. 

 

I must note that I disagree with how you interpreted my position. The highlighted comments regarding my acceptance of a consensus view on qb prospects is an over simplification that borders on distortion. But as it applies to this year's class the consensus view was my view. Not every year but certainly this year. And it was reflected by where these upper echelon qbs were taken.

 

Again, I want to emphasize that I'm not saying you are wrong but especially as your position applies to this draft class I respectfully disagree with your judgment. 

[Buffalo716]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

1) I don't think we are talking about the same league.   The NFL is not truly a next man up league.    It's not.    It's a who has the QB, who has the coach and who has health kinda' league.

 

2) Just because a QB wasn't the next man on your board doesn't mean it's a moot point when you don't take one and he pans out while you struggle to fill the position.    Fireable offenses aren't moot points.   Critical mistakes?  Yes. Moot points?   No.

 

Your pop warner rah-rah attitude is commendable but totally unrealistic wrt professional football.

 

 

It’s not a pop warner philosophy.

 

Its the philosophy I learned playing division 1 football and scouting and coaching

 

The NFL is all about coaching and staying healthy as a team., a backup QB just won the SB because his team was very well built

 

Building the best roster from the ground up so it can win with any QB is the recipe for success . Everyone wants a franchise QB but they don’t grow on trees

Edited May 28, 2018 by Buffalo716