Insightful Analysis From Warren Sharp Reveals Potential Red Flags With Josh Allen as QB

[billsfan1959]

So, the tweets were about an offensive coordinator who chose to run the ball more and how that choice might have been influenced by Allen's abilities. I am not sure how truly insightful this is without actually talking to the coach. Probably more speculative than insightful, but, ok.

[BuffaloRush]

8 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Lol damn you Bills fans  are really pessimistic type! The kid hasn’t even thrown a pass as a bill yet in practice and their is a post up here about red flags! Lol everyone had Allen as a top pick and needing some development.. IMO air was a good pick by Buffalo I think in a 2-3 years he will be a good to very good starter for your team.

 

We are posting red flags because there’s many red flags that exist!

[dorquemada]

4 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

The analysis is that their running game was horrible, yet they ran the ball more than they passed despite playing several horrible pass defenses. 

 

one of the worst things that football analysts and fans do is misunderstand the difference between correlation and causation.  If you've taken any college level statistics, it's not hard to see how statistics can be manipulated to make any case you want, without any rigor of having to prove causation.  This is a good example of that.  Are there any other factors that might have played into the coach wanting to run more?  Weather?  Player skillsets? coaching comfort level and preference?  running the clock out?  this guy's analysis looks at what, 2 maybe 3 variables which isn't anywhere near enough.  when i was taking grad level stats in the early 90s, one of the other guys and I built a football predicting algorithm in SPSS.  We kept fiddling with it and applying various weights to the statistics to see how it affected the accuracy of the predictive model.  We learned a few things:

 

1.  Football games are hard to predict accurately.

2.  Defensive statistics carry about 10% more predictive value than offensive statistics

3.  Except for a few notable exceptions, turnover gradient (+/-) is probably the single biggest indicator of success.  That was in the early 90s, the game has changed some I realize

4.  After fiddling with it for 2 seasons, and plugging some historical data into the model we got it to about 68% ATS.  This was when the stats came out of the world almanac because the web didn't/barely existed then

 

I may try to resurrect my model.  My wife just connected with that guy's wife on facebook, we havent been in touch in 20 years so if I can find time i'll do it.   The larger point is, football is close to immune to real analysis so let's not get overwrought because one guy nobody ever heard of is caremad about allen

[BuffaloRush]

Just now, billsfan1959 said:

So, the tweets were about an offensive coordinator who chose to run the ball more and how that choice might have been influenced by Allen's abilities. I am not sure how truly insightful this is without actually talking to the coach. Probably more speculative than insightful, but, ok.

 

If you read the first few tweets he explains this.  Allen was asked to lead against weak pass defense and instead the OC chose to call running plays with a weak attack.  Speculative?  Maybe.  But there seems to be a trend there and it has to make you wonder why

[Fan in Chicago]

1 minute ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

We are posting red flags because there’s many red flags that exist!

Red flags existed on each of the top 5 QBs. There was no clear consensus that any of them is a cant-miss prospect. 

 

[billsfan1959]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

We are posting red flags because there’s many red flags that exist!

I am sure there are as many as you wish to find

[Gavin in Va Beach]

And Brady sucks, take a flyer on him in the 6th round. And Warner sucks, don't even add him as an undrafted FA, let him play arena ball and bag groceries. And so on.

 

How many predicted all-pros flamed out after being given chance after chance? How many potential all-pros washed out of football because they never got a chance? More than a few I would imagine.

 

Analyze all you want. Then throw it out the window because who really knows?

 

Allen may suck. He may be great. He's a Bill now, so I know what I'm rooting for. If he doesn't pan out, we try again. Sun still comes up tomorrow.

Edited April 27, 2018 by Gavin in Va Beach

[PatsFanNH]

Just now, BuffaloRush said:

 

We are posting red flags because there’s many red flags that exist!

Sigh, but wouldn’t it be better to wait and see how he does in training camp and preseason games BEFORE posting what is at best speculation? Let your eyes tell you what he is or isn’t good at not someone who examined film of college games. I mean Brady hardly lit it up in Michigan, I doubt anyone would say he  (in 20/20 hine site)isn’t worthy of a  top 5 pick in his class. (Let’s face it he had more red flags than any QB coming out of college at the time.)  My point is college stats don’t mean much coming into the NFL. You have great QBs in college whonstink in the NFL, and you have average to maybe a little above average QBs in college who lite it up. 

[akm0404]

The secret Easter egg in that tweet storm was when the guy contradicts himself by saying that he understands that coaches have a certain system that they like to run BUT...

 

The numbers show that they maintained a similar run/pass split for like always. 

 

Seems like this might suggest more about the coach than the QB but don’t let me rain on the echo chamber parade. 

Edited April 27, 2018 by akm0404

[John from Riverside]

8 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

This sounds like an argument the Cult of Tyrod used to make to defend his low output...oy vey

He is gone....can we just move on crisp?

[billsfan1959]

7 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

If you read the first few tweets he explains this.  Allen was asked to lead against weak pass defense and instead the OC chose to call running plays with a weak attack.  Speculative?  Maybe.  But there seems to be a trend there and it has to make you wonder why

Stating something that occurred, and then wondering why it occurred, without any attempt to actually find out just doesn't feel very insightful or thorough. It certainly does not prove that it was because of a lack of belief in Allen's abilities. That conclusion, or insinuation, is intellectually lazy at best

Edited April 27, 2018 by billsfan1959

[The Crowing Rooster]

24 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

If you don’t follow Warren Sharp, he seems probably the smartest analytics guy in football.  He’s literally come out of nowhere this season and his insights are definitely informative.  

 

Stay with the tweets below about Josh Allen.   The gist is, not only was his completion percentage low last season but Wyoming coaches didn’t trust him to throw the football.  They chose to run the ball more, despite the fact that their rushing offense was far more ineffective than passing, and against defense who were far war against the pass.  Coaches didn’t want the ball in Allen’s hands during crunch time.  

 

Look, based on his statistics the odds are against Allen developing into something special.  I get why fans are freaking out

 

You can read the tweets below.  There are probably about 10 of them,  but stick with it.  Great analysis here:

 

 

 

 

 

 

25 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

If you don’t follow Warren Sharp, he seems probably the smartest analytics guy in football.  He’s literally come out of nowhere this season and his insights are definitely informative.  

 

Stay with the tweets below about Josh Allen.   The gist is, not only was his completion percentage low last season but Wyoming coaches didn’t trust him to throw the football.  They chose to run the ball more, despite the fact that their rushing offense was far more ineffective than passing, and against defense who were far war against the pass.  Coaches didn’t want the ball in Allen’s hands during crunch time.  

 

Look, based on his statistics the odds are against Allen developing into something special.  I get why fans are freaking out

 

You can read the tweets below.  There are probably about 10 of them,  but stick with it.  Great analysis here:

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Brand J]

For the record, I was against drafting Allen even at 12. But for argument's sake, if the Bills stood pat and both Allen/Rosen were selected before 12, I'd have NO problem if Edmunds were the pick at 12 and Jackson was the pick at 22. Not to mention we'd still have the 53rd, 56th, and 65th picks in the draft. So it's basically Allen and Edmunds, or Jackson and Edumunds, along with picks 53, 56, and 65.

[BuffaloRush]

8 minutes ago, dorquemada said:

 

one of the worst things that football analysts and fans do is misunderstand the difference between correlation and causation.  If you've taken any college level statistics, it's not hard to see how statistics can be manipulated to make any case you want, without any rigor of having to prove causation.  This is a good example of that.  Are there any other factors that might have played into the coach wanting to run more?  Weather?  Player skillsets? coaching comfort level and preference?  running the clock out?  this guy's analysis looks at what, 2 maybe 3 variables which isn't anywhere near enough.  when i was taking grad level stats in the early 90s, one of the other guys and I built a football predicting algorithm in SPSS.  We kept fiddling with it and applying various weights to the statistics to see how it affected the accuracy of the predictive model.  We learned a few things:

 

1.  Football games are hard to predict accurately.

2.  Defensive statistics carry about 10% more predictive value than offensive statistics

3.  Except for a few notable exceptions, turnover gradient (+/-) is probably the single biggest indicator of success.  That was in the early 90s, the game has changed some I realize

4.  After fiddling with it for 2 seasons, and plugging some historical data into the model we got it to about 68% ATS.  This was when the stats came out of the world almanac because the web didn't/barely existed then

 

I may try to resurrect my model.  My wife just connected with that guy's wife on facebook, we havent been in touch in 20 years so if I can find time i'll do it.   The larger point is, football is close to immune to real analysis so let's not get overwrought because one guy nobody ever heard of is caremad about allen

 

Wait you know Warren Sharp?

[Billsflyer12]

Why does Allen get excused for poor talent and WRs in the Mountain West Conference, but not any blame for his horrible stats against poor talent defenses of the Mountain West?

[RussellDopeland]

Am I the only one that has had their fill of this analytics garbage? I enjoy football for a myriad of reasons; but more and more the statistical analysis has crept into the mix, leading to over-scrutiny of prospects, players, coaches, GMs, etc., which undermines the ability of fans, such as myself, to actually sit down, crack open a beer, and watch the damn game or, for that matter, the draft! I'm sure this is palatable to the fantasy geeks that derive orgasmic pleasure from devoting hours pouring over stats galore.

But not for "lowbrow" fans like me.

[The Virginian]

10 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

So, the tweets were about an offensive coordinator who chose to run the ball more and how that choice might have been influenced by Allen's abilities. I am not sure how truly insightful this is without actually talking to the coach. Probably more speculative than insightful, but, ok.

Wyoming’s offense is a run -first by design.  It’s not a West Coast five receivers downfield offense.  Bohl’s philosophy is the run sets up the pass.  Unfortunately, the run didn’t work that well last season so they were forced to go downfield more than they normally wanted.  

[dorquemada]

6 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Wait you know Warren Sharp?

 

no i was referring to the guy i built the spss model with.

[BuffaloRush]

9 minutes ago, Gavin in Va Beach said:

And Brady sucks, take a flyer on him in the 6th round. And Warner sucks, don't even add him as an undrafted FA, let him play arena ball and bag groceries. And so on.

 

How many predicted all-pros flamed out after being given chance after chance? How many potential all-pros washed out of football because they never got a chance? More than a few I would imagine.

 

Analyze all you want. Then throw it out the window because who really knows?

 

Allen may suck. He may be great. He's a Bill now, so I know what I'm rooting for. If he doesn't pan out, we try again. Sun still comes up tomorrow.

 

Flawed logic.  How many times have 6th round picks or UFA’s developed into QB’s on the level of Brady or Warner.  An extremely low number.  Those are exceptions...not the norm.  

 

You said “who really knows” whether he will be great as of today, and you are correct.  However there’s many red flags and past evidence that would lead you the conclusion that Allen won’t be successful in the NFL.  That’s why fans are not thrilled with this pick.

 

Its like buying lottery ticket.  Yes you “could” win millions, but the math is telling you that you probably won’t win.  There a lot of math going against the Bills and Allen.

 

I was just sharing a very interesting observation.  

 

Also Just because your a Bills fan, doesn’t mean you have to blindly love every move the team makes.  

 

 

Just now, dorquemada said:

 

no i was referring to the guy i built the spss model with.

 

Ok well yeah you should do it.  You have an interesting background and I feel you can add a lot to these discussions 

17 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

Red flags existed on each of the top 5 QBs. There was no clear consensus that any of them is a cant-miss prospect. 

 

Right but if you look at the stats and the variables, there chances of Allen succeeding in the NFL as a franchise QB are much smaller than him failing

[dorquemada]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Flawed logic.  How many times have 6th round picks or UFA’s developed into QB’s on the level of Brady or Warner.  An extremely low number.  Those are exceptions...not the norm.  

 

You said “who really knows” whether he will be great as of today, and you are correct.  However there’s many red flags and past evidence that would lead you the conclusion that Allen won’t be successful in the NFL.  That’s why fans are not thrilled with this pick.

 

Its like buying lottery ticket.  Yes you “could” win millions, but the math is telling you that you probably won’t win.  There a lot of math going against the Bills and Allen.

 

I was just sharing a very interesting observation.  

 

Also Just because your a Bills fan, doesn’t mean you have to blindly love every move the team makes.  

 

 

 

Ok well yeah you should do it.  You have an interesting background and I feel you can add a lot to these discussions 

 

ty.  there used to be a Bills group on usenet back then (alt.sport.football.bills?) it was a long time ago but we used to post picks every week.  it was kind of a thing lol