RD1, Pick 7: Josh Allen QB - Wyoming

[Logic]

53 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm sure there's a few - there always are.

 

The majority I think are just honestly scared that a guy who needs a good bit of NFL development, will be like the last 2 1st rounders the Bills drafted and won't take that step.

 

 

Welcome!

 

I hope you're right.  If you find yourself getting a bit frustrated by some of the negativity, I suggest you stroll over to pro-football-reference and check out the Bills QB draft history.  The 1040EZ on it is that the last 2 QB the Bills drafted, had trouble learning to read and react to an NFL defense and the 2 most recent 1st rounders had "zip code" accuracy issues which weren't able to progress.

 

If your guy can go out there and ball, then show improved decisions and placement from year to year, we'll love him, every one of us, no worries.  For players who give it their all, there is no better fan base.

You laid it out pretty succinctly. I will be rooting hard for Allen to succeed, but it is IMPOSSIBLE for me to forget the ghosts of Losman and Manuel. Until proven otherwise, this feels like part 3 of a really bad movie series that I'm sick of watching. Here's hoping I'm totally wrong on this one.

Edited May 1, 2018 by Logic

[jrober38]

6 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

What does that tell you ? It's an inexact science that even the pros don't get right a large percentage of the time, because there are no absolutes. It's impossible to predict  because the game at that level is so different. And the human factor: guys flame out for all sorts of reasons that are not predictable because we can't see the future. Yes, it's silly to say a paid pro in the NFL is " dumb". Those folks should be called out, because that's an ignorant take. Fans may not agree with a lot of these picks, but pretending you can do a lot better is asinine because virtually no one in the NFL does. You would own the NFL if you could do better by a statistically significant margin over a period of time. 

 

I disagree.

 

Figuring out what QBs are going to be successful isn't too hard. 

Teams get into trouble when they ignore the game film and picks guys based off their measurables or potential. 

 

It's really freaking hard to find a QB, and teams should be a lot more selective than they are. The "projects" rarely succeed in the NFL. 

[jrober38]

6 hours ago, Putin said:

Dan Marino is another ( HOF’er ) BTW with same exact completion % as Allen , 

 

He went to college 35 years ago. 

[Putin]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

He went to college 35 years ago. 

And ?

[jrober38]

5 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

As are the odds for all the drafted qbs in every draft.....

 

You are buying a lottery ticket with any of these guys

 

That's such a lazy way of looking at it.

 

20 years ago maybe. But now a days when there are so many advanced analytics that can much more accurately predict what QBs will and won't succeed than your average scout, it isn't the inexact some science some people think it is. 

 

The fact that pretty much every advanced analytic gives Josh Allen next to no hope of being successful doesn't bode well for his future. Scouts might miss all the time on QBs, but there have proven to be some good studies that are quite accurate, and they think Allen is going to be a complete bust. 

[KellyToTasker]

2 minutes ago, Putin said:

And ?

The game has evolved a lot in 35 years.

[jrober38]

28 minutes ago, Logic said:

You laid it out pretty succinctly. I will be rooting hard for Allen to succeed, but it is IMPOSSIBLE for me to forget the ghosts of Losman and Manuel. Until proven otherwise, this feels like part 3 of a really bad movie series that I'm sick of watching. Here's hoping I'm totally wrong on this one.

 

Agreed.

 

Until he proves otherwise, in my eyes we just drafted some hybrid version of EJ Manuel/Josh Freeman/Jake Locker/Kyle Boller because that's what the numbers say we drafted. 

[Sky Diver]

4 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

That's such a lazy way of looking at it.

 

20 years ago maybe. But now a days when there are so many advanced analytics that can much more accurately predict what QBs will and won't succeed than your average scout, it isn't the inexact some science some people think it is. 

 

The fact that pretty much every advanced analytic gives Josh Allen next to no hope of being successful doesn't bode well for his future. Scouts might miss all the time on QBs, but there have proven to be some good studies that are quite accurate, and they think Allen is going to be a complete bust. 

 

Players aren’t robots. I’m sure the Bills look at analytics, among other things.

[Scorp83]

8 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

So many fans take these so called ESPN/NFLN analysts words as bible.  It’s kinda sad.  They for their options solely off what those people say.  Also see slog od people referencing these second rate websites like walterfootball and basing their opinions off of that.   

I totally agree! You have to use your own eyes & brain... if you don't know what your looking at, You shouldn't speak on it after you sat & watch a TON of you tube highlights 

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, Sky Diver said:

 

Players aren’t robots. I’m sure the Bills look at analytics, among other things.

 

Picking Allen in the 1st round suggests they don't. 

[BuffaloRush]

This is quite possibly one of the funniest things I've read on Twitter.  Since Thursday night, Jeremy White has been going off on the Bills for selecting Josh Allen both on the airwaves and especially on Twitter.  He literally has been retweeting every single negative new article about Josh Allen - this is no joke.  Yet as I pointed out, when he's had to chance to hold the guy accountable for making the decision (Brandon Beane) or the QB that he's been complaining about (Josh Allen) - he's very polite and says nothing.  

 

Anyway, some Bills fans have taken to Twitter and accused him of running a Josh Allen smear campaign.  This is pretty funny to me.  While it does seem like he's on a crusade to prove that Allen was a bad choice, in the process he does bring up some good points.  I actually like Jeremy's takes most of the time but I feel that he went way overboard.  Also, it's important to point out that Jeremy has been very wrong about a lot of things he's been outspoken against the past year - including the Sabres tanking, Doug Marrone and the Jags, The Las Vegas Golden Knights etc.  Just because he hates the pick, doesn't mean he's right.    

 

Also I'm glad to hear him share an opposing view on the Bills "flagship station," and appreciate him vocalizing the complaining on the air.   It would suck if all of WGR was an sterile as The John Murphy Show.  So with that being said, I don't think he's trying to turn the fans against Allen or running any kind of smear campaign.  I think he really hates the pick and feels that Rosen is the better QB.  I also think Bills fans can be overly defensive to any criticism, no matter how sound the argument is. 

 

However, I do find some of the responses to the tweet below on Twitter to be pretty funny.  

 

Here are some of the highlights from Twitter:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 1, 2018 by BuffaloRush

[stuvian]

The only outlet I have heard trash the Allen pick is the Sporting news (near bottom)

 

http://www.sportingnews.com/ca/nfl/news/nfl-draft-2018-grades-winners-losers-best-worst-broncos-bills-seahawks/1dkbptsgr3h911bp55d3m1cecw

 

I think we should "pay a visit" to Vinnie Iyers 'twitter account when Allen lights it up.

 

are there other writers trashing the pick?

Edited May 1, 2018 by stuvian

[Sky Diver]

4 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Picking Allen in the 1st round suggests they don't. 

 

Maybe you should find a team that you think is better at evaluating talent?

Edited May 1, 2018 by Sky Diver

[jrober38]

Some Bills fans can't handle when anyone says anything bad about the Bills.

 

White is a relatively smart guy. He knows everything about Allen says he's very unlikely to make it as a Franchise QB in the NFL. 

 

He's a numbers guy and I give him credit for being consistent. If you look at the numbers, the only opinion of Allen you can have is that he's horrible. 

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, Sky Diver said:

 

Maybe you should find a team that you think is better at evaluating talent?

 

Good call. 

 

I'll just give up on the Bills having watched this team for the past 30 years. 

 

Thanks for the advice. 

Edited May 1, 2018 by jrober38

[Scorp83]

Yea, this is completely false. I know cause I was part of the college QB text line... & I was one of the people that told him to stop sending me Josh Allen games... after I've watched the 6th game... I had enough. Man smh... the horrible decision making, over throwing wide open WR's down the middle of the field, can't throw to the flats, can't throw a 5 & out, throws into double coverage, threw off his back foot alot, put too much zip when it wasn't needed. Just horrible QB play... he had games that looked like Tyrod smh. 125 yard passing

 

Jeremy White didn't make people dislike Josh Allen... Josh Allen did that to the thousands of people watching him this pass season. Yet some people on this board wonder why fans like myself won't give him a chance, he hasn't earned it...nor shown it in college.

[jrober38]

3 minutes ago, stuvian said:

The only outlet I have heard trash the Allen pick is the Sporting news (near bottom)

 

http://www.sportingnews.com/ca/nfl/news/nfl-draft-2018-grades-winners-losers-best-worst-broncos-bills-seahawks/1dkbptsgr3h911bp55d3m1cecw

 

I think we should "pay a visit" to Vinnie Iyers 'twitter account when Allen lights it up.

 

are there other writers trashing the pick?

 

Rotoworld has us picking #1 overall next year so that tells you a lot about what they think of the pick and our draft. 

 

"Old School" scouts seem to like Allen.

 

"New Scout" evaluators who rely on the numbers really hate him. 

[Carter]

The writing is on the wall. History is repeating itself. 

 

The Bills chose the wrong Josh!!

 

Doesnt get anymore obvious. Take off the rose colored glasses, lay off the kool aid. 

 

Beane made a critical mistake for our Bills and their future. It’s sad really. 

 

Next regime will will give us renewed hope. Will they get it right? doubt it. 

 

Attention on should be squarely on beane and McDermott. They should be getting smeared. 

Edited May 1, 2018 by Carter

[LEBills]

3 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Good call. 

 

I'll just give up on the Bills having watched this team for the past 30 years. 

 

Thanks for the advice. 

Welcome to the Allen fan club! Plenty of room! Go Bills!

[Sky Diver]

19 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

That's such a lazy way of looking at it.

 

20 years ago maybe. But now a days when there are so many advanced analytics that can much more accurately predict what QBs will and won't succeed than your average scout, it isn't the inexact some science some people think it is. 

 

The fact that pretty much every advanced analytic gives Josh Allen next to no hope of being successful doesn't bode well for his future. Scouts might miss all the time on QBs, but there have proven to be some good studies that are quite accurate, and they think Allen is going to be a complete bust. 

 

If analytics were so reliable and scientific, why was Brady drafted in the 6th round and why are there so many first round busts?

Edited May 1, 2018 by Sky Diver