OldTimer1960 Posted April 30, 2018 Posted April 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said: John Dorsey, Steve Keim among 2018 NFL draft winners LOSERS Analytics: First off, good for PFF’s Steve Palazzolo, who was on the Baker-Mayfield-to-Browns train from the beginning. Mayfield was far and away PFF’s top quarterback, at a time when many mainstream analysts were disagreeing. If nothing else, it helps legitimize their process, which is admittedly a work in progress. Not all NFL teams, however, seemed to be making the kind of suave, next-generation moves befitting of the analytic wave. Gettleman, for one, hands a heap of guaranteed money to the least reliable position in the NFL—a person who will almost certainly exit his athletic prime by the end of this rookie deal. Sean Payton gave up a future first-rounder to move up for a defensive end. The Bills took a quarterback described this way by Football Outsiders: Last year, Wyoming finished 119th in passing S&P+ out of 130 teams in FBS. That will be the lowest rank ever for a quarterback chosen in the top 100 picks of the NFL draft. Yes, I know, Allen wasn’t playing with a bunch of NFL-bound talent around him. He also wasn’t facing a lot of NFL-bound talent on defense. The average opponent faced by Wyoming ranked just 83.5 in pass defense S&P+. Allen’s performance against top opponents was brutal. He threw two picks with no touchdowns against Iowa, with just 4.35 yards per attempt. He completed just 9-of-24 passes with 64 yards and a pick against Oregon. He completed 44 percent of passes with two picks and only 131 yards against Boise State. Projecting Allen Mean Projection in Years 3-5: -83 DYAR Bust (< 500 DYAR) 62.7% Adequate Starter (500-1499 DYAR) 20.7% Upper Tier (1500-2500 DYAR) 11.5% Elite (>2500 DYAR) 5.2% Like Darnold, Allen was only a two-year starter in college. But Allen's statistics are horrifying compared to Darnold's. Allen has an obscenely powerful arm, but it's a howitzer without a targeting system. He completed just 56.3 percent of his passes last year. Here is the list of quarterbacks chosen in the top 100 picks since 2005 despite having a completion rate below 58 percent in their final college season: Andrew Walter (2005), Jake Locker (2011), Christian Hackenberg (2016), Connor Cook (2016) and C.J. Beathard (2017). That's it. 26CB, I’m sure that you’ve watched Allen college video, as have I. I am SURE that Rosen is MUCH more ready to play now than Allen, but what I took from Allen’s video is that he was desperately trying to carry an undertalented team and he was not in optimal position to maximize his completion %, yet he took the risks to try to will his team to a win. I am willing to take a chance on that upside. Would I have preferred Rosen? Yes, because I am conservative by nature, but I can see how Allen could be a star (or a bust).
26CornerBlitz Posted April 30, 2018 Posted April 30, 2018 (edited) 5 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said: 26CB, I’m sure that you’ve watched Allen college video, as have I. I am SURE that Rosen is MUCH more ready to play now than Allen, but what I took from Allen’s video is that he was desperately trying to carry an undertalented team and he was not in optimal position to maximize his completion %, yet he took the risks to try to will his team to a win. I am willing to take a chance on that upside. Would I have preferred Rosen? Yes, because I am conservative by nature, but I can see how Allen could be a star (or a bust). Classic Boom or Bust prospect as stated previously. He has raw tools that need quite a bit of refinement in order for him to excel in the NFL, but the mental aspects of the game are where he needs even more work with hard coaching and time on task. It will require patience. Edited April 30, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz 1
26CornerBlitz Posted April 30, 2018 Posted April 30, 2018 (edited) 8 minutes ago, mead107 said: What mental aspects? Pre and post snap reads to decipher coverage that will only get more challenging at the NFL level. Knowing when to stand in the pocket and when to bail. Throwing with anticipation on a consistent basis. Edited April 30, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz
No Cease Fires Posted April 30, 2018 Posted April 30, 2018 I think maybe FO should actually watch some of Allen's 2017 starts. He wasn't carrying the team. He WAS the team. No running game except what he generated. Bare minimum of an offensive line. And his mechanics were improved over 2016 despite the poor stats.
OldTimer1960 Posted April 30, 2018 Posted April 30, 2018 13 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said: Classic Boom or Bust prospect as stated previously. He has raw tools that need quite a bit of refinement in order for him to excel in the NFL, but the mental aspects of the game are where he needs even more work with hard coaching and time on task. It will require patience. Absolutely agree. I hope that he receives the required patience from fans and media. No QB would look good in this year’s offense.
26CornerBlitz Posted April 30, 2018 Posted April 30, 2018 1 minute ago, OldTimer1960 said: Absolutely agree. I hope that he receives the required patience from fans and media. No QB would look good in this year’s offense. Hopefully they put him in the QB "Crock Pot" to let him simmer and It's not a good supporting cast on paper to put things mildly. If they bring him in faster than expected, they'll have to lean on the run game quite a bit with Shady and give him easy pre-defined reads to ease him in. Hoping for the best.
benderbender Posted April 30, 2018 Posted April 30, 2018 The only thing Allen needs to do is be more productive than Tyrod, when called upon, and he’s a success. You’re welcome to measure his inseam and debate the statistics of his wins in beer pong until the season starts. In fact I encourage it. It seems forever until September.
Lurker Posted April 30, 2018 Posted April 30, 2018 (edited) Ummm.... Full game for those with strong stomachs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdVzNkdgTGU Edited April 30, 2018 by Lurker
nedboy7 Posted April 30, 2018 Posted April 30, 2018 59 minutes ago, benderbender said: The only thing Allen needs to do is be more productive than Tyrod, when called upon, and he’s a success. You’re welcome to measure his inseam and debate the statistics of his wins in beer pong until the season starts. In fact I encourage it. It seems forever until September. Giving up 2 second round picks to get a QB more productive than TT is not success.
nedboy7 Posted April 30, 2018 Posted April 30, 2018 Not sure how you reason that some imagined future potential in a guy leads to a smarter pick than current proven talent. Especially when you compare the conferences they play in. Hopefully the strongest arm learns all the other dimensions of being a great QB. If he does not become great, the price paid will be a complete waste just like Watkins.
CajunBillsBacker Posted April 30, 2018 Posted April 30, 2018 49 minutes ago, Lurker said: Ummm.... Full game for those with strong stomachs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdVzNkdgTGU Name one QB who hasn’t overthrown a receiver or thrown into good coverage? i saw a lot of pocket collapsing and Allen running for his life and making plays with his feet. 1
Fadingpain Posted April 30, 2018 Posted April 30, 2018 1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said: 26CB, I’m sure that you’ve watched Allen college video, as have I. I am SURE that Rosen is MUCH more ready to play now than Allen, but what I took from Allen’s video is that he was desperately trying to carry an undertalented team and he was not in optimal position to maximize his completion %, yet he took the risks to try to will his team to a win. I am willing to take a chance on that upside. Would I have preferred Rosen? Yes, because I am conservative by nature, but I can see how Allen could be a star (or a bust). No offense, but the highlighted text is just fictional garbage. You're living in your own dream world. Know what my belief is as to why Allen's stats were so poor? He's not very good. It's simple. Don't make it hard. 1
dickleyjones Posted April 30, 2018 Posted April 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, Fadingpain said: No offense, but the highlighted text is just fictional garbage. You're living in your own dream world. Know what my belief is as to why Allen's stats were so poor? He's not very good. It's simple. Don't make it hard. either one of you may be correct.
mannc Posted April 30, 2018 Posted April 30, 2018 15 minutes ago, CajunBillsBacker said: Name one QB who hasn’t overthrown a receiver or thrown into good coverage? i saw a lot of pocket collapsing and Allen running for his life and making plays with his feet. Boise State is massively more talented than Wyoming and they are 92-4 at home since 2000. How would Darnold have done in his shoes?
Juice_32 Posted April 30, 2018 Posted April 30, 2018 1 hour ago, Lurker said: Ummm.... Full game for those with strong stomachs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdVzNkdgTGU Funny, I just watched the first half of the Boise game and it made me feel better about Allen. His line was trash and his receivers had zero separation. He actually made one of the best throws I've ever seen at 1:15.
CajunBillsBacker Posted April 30, 2018 Posted April 30, 2018 Just now, mannc said: Boise State is massively more talented than Wyoming and they are 92-4 at home since 2000. How would Darnold have done in his shoes? That’s what I was thinking too. Boise is always pretty good at home and for Wyoming to keep it as close as they did wasn’t bad. i saw a lot of WYO’s line getting destroyed and Allen having to run around and make plays with his feet. He juked the hell out of one guy in the middle of that video. He threw two interceptions, but he also threw some nice passes.
Lurker Posted April 30, 2018 Posted April 30, 2018 (edited) 45 minutes ago, CajunBillsBacker said: Name one QB who hasn’t overthrown a receiver or thrown into good coverage? i saw a lot of pocket collapsing and Allen running for his life and making plays with his feet. LOL. Even the announcers were talking about his bad mechanics. It's like, "Boy, we know this guy is an NFL prospect. But he throwing off his back foot too much..." (at the 1 hour 49 minute 50 second mark) This is Allen in a nutshell. A few great passes and a whole lot of bad, unforced errors. The topper was when one announcer says he has great pocket awareness and then gets sacked on the next play after holding the ball too long (at the 2 hour, 01 minute, 39 seconds mark)... Edited April 30, 2018 by Lurker
mannc Posted April 30, 2018 Posted April 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, CajunBillsBacker said: That’s what I was thinking too. Boise is always pretty good at home and for Wyoming to keep it as close as they did wasn’t bad. i saw a lot of WYO’s line getting destroyed and Allen having to run around and make plays with his feet. He juked the hell out of one guy in the middle of that video. He threw two interceptions, but he also threw some nice passes. Boise St is the Gonzaga of college football—former Cinderella, but a team that now signs big-time recruits and can beat anyone in the country. PAC 12 teams refuse to play them.
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