RD1, Pick 7: Josh Allen QB - Wyoming

[RocCityRoller]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I understand your comparison better now. 

 

I offer one snarky, and one serious point back:

1. hopefully NOT the see-bar-drink-bar-dry trait of young Favre

2. I think the basis of the counter point (against comparing a QB from Favre's era) is that the game was a bit different then - less pass-centric, more smash-mouth.  The same QB performance which was League MVP in Favre's time, might not get it done these days.

 

Overall, I think your point is valid - not necessarily the Favre comparison, but the fact that Beane went for the guy with the sky-high ceiling (hoping he can bury the potato and cure his warts) over the guy who has shown more demonstrated ability as a QB today and may have a higher floor, but a lower ceiling.

 

Thank you for meeting me half way. I love it!

 

I think the more professional approach of football to the party days helps offset the change in the game.

Stints like Zay or Cyrus still happen, but it's news now vs the past when it was binge or coke (irvin etc) to become news.

Can you imagine the 1990s stars with social media? It would be a mess.

 

I am happy to be 40-45 now. I remember 1980's an 1990's football. Bad teams tried to run the ball because they sucked at throwing it.

How has this changed? Look at Dallas. 2 years ago Prescott was great, Elliot did his thing as did Witten and  Bryant.

W/O Witten and Bryant D will depend on Eliott more and more, and Prescott will struggle.

Goff struggled w/o Watkins/Woods/Culp and the HC/OC change.

 

I think that some how, some way the Bills got a very very special talent at QB (and MLB) this year.

We owe it to them to be supportive and walk them through the roster rebuild.

This feels like 198x and it is happening.Buffalo in the late 1980's was a boring D first team.

After the 1988 AFC Championship loss it clicked and the Bills went on a run when they changed the offense.

 

My fear is that we don't live up to our stars now. Eichel and Allen are stars, buy they need support and systems that suit them.

 

 

[Tyrod's friend]

All these Brett Favre comps ... just makes me laugh. Look, Brett was averaging roughly 55% completion percentage in college. At the time Jim Kelly was the very best QB in the NFL at 63. The top QBs in the league were averaging 57-58% of their passes. John F'n Elway completed 58 and Dan Marino 57. So Brett Favre in college was right in the midst of that.

Using a guy who is completing 56% of his passes when the top ten NFL QBs are running 64 and 65% ... you are missing a full deviation here. Josh Allen is nearly 20% less accurate than quality NFL QBs of his era. Brett Favre was very nearly equal to NFL HoF QBs when he was in college.

Compare an apple to an apple - you might come up with Jeff Blake. A guy that was roughly 10-15% less effective in completing passes than the better NFL guys of his era. OK career. Drafted in the 6th round, not first. Played a little bit. 39-61 record. Stuck around. Known for having a live arm and was mobile. 

Brett Favre? SMH.  Punching out of your league to compare Josh Allen to Brett Favre. Guys are just reaching for straws here. Let the kid be the kid. 

[RocCityRoller]

13 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

I really don’t agree with the assessment that he’s a generational talent. I have my opinion and that really won’t change until he actually gets on the field.

 

My post wasn't so much to change your mind, but to offer an example of how things can turn out right with a QB like this.

 

Like I said, Allen isn't my first pick (Darnlold/Mayfield/Rudolph). I would have gone Rudolph and a team vs Allen, because I am conservative but we went Allen, so I looked long and hard at best case scenarios. They all added up to Favre and Allen as comparables. It took Favre 4 years to become the Brett Favre we remember.

 

I think my point is give Josh Allen 3-4 years to become Josh Allen. He has generational physical tools, let the game slow down for him and he will be very, very special.

 

thanks for the reply

[BADOLBILZ]

16 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

All these Brett Favre comps ... just makes me laugh. Look, Brett was averaging roughly 55% completion percentage in college. At the time Jim Kelly was the very best QB in the NFL at 63. The top QBs in the league were averaging 57-58% of their passes. John F'n Elway completed 58 and Dan Marino 57. So Brett Favre in college was right in the midst of that.

Using a guy who is completing 56% of his passes when the top ten NFL QBs are running 64 and 65% ... you are missing a full deviation here. Josh Allen is nearly 20% less accurate than quality NFL QBs of his era. Brett Favre was very nearly equal to NFL HoF QBs when he was in college.

Compare an apple to an apple - you might come up with Jeff Blake. A guy that was roughly 10-15% less effective in completing passes than the better NFL guys of his era. OK career. Drafted in the 6th round, not first. Played a little bit. 39-61 record. Stuck around. Known for having a live arm and was mobile. 

Brett Favre? SMH.  Punching out of your league to compare Josh Allen to Brett Favre. Guys are just reaching for straws here. Let the kid be the kid. 

 

 

I don't see a 100% accurate comparison to any QB prior........ just a lot of traits of guys like Big Ben and Cam and Favre and Elway.    

 

But getting caught up on that stuff and thinking it means something is another "I'm new to this" indicator when it comes to evaluating prospects. 

 

None of those guys I mentioned ended up like their comps entering the league.......they became almost entirely unique.....so if you are bothered by the Favre comparison remember that nobody compares Favre and Terry Bradshaw in retrospect..........but Favre certainly didn't disappoint.

 

 

[LaradiseCowboy]

 

[H2o]

Ok, so I have looked more extensively at Allen and Rosen since my initial wave of turrets when we drafted Allen over Rosen. 

 

Allen first. There is no denying the physical gifts that Allen has been blessed with. There is not a pass he cannot throw. There is no weather situation he couldn't still throw the ball around in. He can throw a Hail Mary that could reach the endzone if we were on our own 25 if necessary. When his base is solid he rips accurate passes, granted most of them come out like rockets. The problem at Wyoming was he was under pressure almost all the time. I think that affected the numbers that we see quite a bit. He didn't really have the time to set his feet and his pass catchers never really separate. Especially when they faced the larger programs with higher level recruits on defense, the disparity of talent on his OL and his receiving corps was clearly evident. In those games he struggled because of rhe way things broke down on basically every drop back. It led to terrible decisions, because he was trying to make a play every single time, and his numbers suffered. He was clearly the best player on a bad team. Worlds of potential. Seems smart. Has to put it together on the field. I think he is a player who can perform better than he did in college due to the fact he will have NFL talent around him. The mental aspect, reading defenses, and operating better when he sets his feet to throw timing routes will be huge. He will have to learn to look off defenders. This isn't backyard Wyoming football anymore. These are the best of the best every time he steps on the field. Learn the system, operate to the best of your ability within that system, but don't try to do too much within that system because not every play is meant to be a scoring play. As much as I hated the pick when it happened, he does have the chance to be what we have waited for since 1996 which is the next great Bills QB. 

 

Rosen second. Rosen was one of the two guys I wanted. He is as polished a prospect as you will ever see. He can make every throw that you will see on an NFL field. He manipulates defenses with his eyes. He steps up in big games. His draw backs are his attitude, clearly evidenced in his post draft presser, and hus injury history. I believe he is greater in his mind than he is in reality at this point. He hasn't stepped foot on an NFL field, but in his mind believes he is Aaron Rodgers. Josh, just because you weren't taken until #10 overall and were the 4th QB off of the board does not mean you were slighted. It means the concerns people had about you did effect your standing with the teams who drafted someone else. Stfu, get to work, and let your play speak for itself. I just want to say that I think Mora is a douche nozzle, but I believe his original statements about Rosen are exactly what he thought about him and they may very well be true. Comes off like a total Prima Donna. I don't see that as something that meshed well with what Beane and McDermott are trying to build here. It doesn't mean that I think he is a lesser prospect than Allen, I'm just saying that I believe I am starting to understand the "why" a little bit more. 

 

Just my 2 my friends. 

[Mojo44]

2 hours ago, Lurker said:

 

Got that right.   Anybody that compares any QB from Favre's era to today's crop looses enormous credibility...

Not at all true.  That “era” isn’t that long ago.  Farve and Allen may or may not be similar QB’s but the “different era” argument is bogus. QB’ing is fundamentally the same now as in Farve’s time!

[Tyrod's friend]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I don't see a 100% accurate comparison to any QB prior........ just a lot of traits of guys like Big Ben and Cam and Favre and Elway.    

 

But getting caught up on that stuff and thinking it means something is another "I'm new to this" indicator when it comes to evaluating prospects. 

 

None of those guys I mentioned ended up like their comps entering the league.......they became almost entirely unique.....so if you are bothered by the Favre comparison remember that nobody compares Favre and Terry Bradshaw in retrospect..........but Favre certainly didn't disappoint.

 

 

 

The whole comps thing ... it's just stupid. Nobody was even saying Brett Favre was inaccurate. Here's a write up on him made by Kiper ... no commentary about him being inaccurate, although plenty about him having a strong arm. 

Look, just let the kid be who he's going to be is all I'm saying. It took years for Favre to stop being quite a cowboy - maybe he never did. Maybe what makes our guy special is that he listens to coaches and puts his game under control, and throwing 15 yard bullets is what opens the deep game. I don't know. 

But leave Brett's name out of this. He has nothing as a comp to Allen. Hope y'all enjoy the writeup on the NFL's happiest warrior.

 

After a nightmarish spring and summer, it appeared Brett Favre would have to consider sitting out the 1990 campaign. His run on bad luck began with elbow surgery to his throwing arm that sidelined him the entire spring practice session. While rehabilitating that injury, Brett was involved in a single-car accident on July 14 that resulted in a variety of injuries, including a gash on his knee, a concussion, as well as severe bumps and bruises to most of his body. After talking to Brett and his family at the Senior Bowl, he was fortunate just to survive the accident, let alone return to the gridiron this season. You see, the car he was driving was in the process of falling down a hill into a creek, before the car was stopped in its tracks by a tree. Had the car fallen into the creek, Brett would have more than likely drowned, since he was unconscious then. His brother, who was in a following car, pulled Brett out of the wreck, where he lay on the side of the road until an ambulance arrived to take him to a hospital.

 

Brett Favre had a first-round grade coming out of Southern Miss, but he fell to the second round in the 1991 NFL draft. Allen Steele/Getty Images

After leaving the hospital, he was still not feeling even close to 100 percent. As Brett explained, "It felt like a knife was jabbing me in the middle of my chest." He twice went to see a doctor, before being returned to the hospital for further evaluation. On Aug. 8, he underwent surgery to remove a 30-inch portion of the lower end of his smaller intestine. During the ordeal, he lost between 25 and 30 pounds, weighing in at only 193 pounds before the start of the football season in late August, early September.

Remarkably, Brett was able to dress for the season opener against Delta State on Sept. 1, although he didn't return to action until the second game against Alabama. During the middle portion of the campaign, Brett began to regain his lost weight and strength, leading the Golden Eagles to victories over the likes of Louisville and Auburn. He closed out the campaign with a fine effort against NC State in the bowl game, throwing for well over 300 yards against one of the top secondaries in college football.

He has a strong, powerful arm, throwing the 15- to 25-yard intermediate routes across the middle as well as any quarterback to come out in the last few years. The Southern Miss baseball coaches have practically begged him to play the last few years. In high school, his fastball was clocked in the 90 mph range. Delivery is outstanding -- he snaps the ball right off from his ear, cutting through the wind that is a factor to deal with in the late fall/winter months.

One negative I saw during practice sessions was that he tends to hang his deeper passes, allowing CBs the time to react and get in a position to make a play on the ball. Although not a scrambler, he can sidestep the initial pass rusher, and learn to deliver the ball accurately rolling to his right.(BOLD TYPE ADDED BY POSTER - doesn't sound to me like accuracy was an issue).

* This kid is a competitor, possesses above average physical skills, and did his damage against top competition during his four years as the starter. To a certain extent, he is still recovering from the painful injuries he sustained in the car accident and ensuing surgery. I really believe strongly that he has the natural ability and overall attitude to make the successful transition to the NFL. Would be ideal for a club looking to develop a starting quarterback of the future, thus allowing him the time necessary to settle in at the pro level.

Combine Note -- Brett was the most impressive of the quarterbacks throwing the football, but didn't run for the clock, still a little banged up from the all-star game.

 

[RocCityRoller]

34 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

All these Brett Favre comps ... just makes me laugh. Look, Brett was averaging roughly 55% completion percentage in college. At the time Jim Kelly was the very best QB in the NFL at 63. The top QBs in the league were averaging 57-58% of their passes. John F'n Elway completed 58 and Dan Marino 57. So Brett Favre in college was right in the midst of that.

Using a guy who is completing 56% of his passes when the top ten NFL QBs are running 64 and 65% ... you are missing a full deviation here. Josh Allen is nearly 20% less accurate than quality NFL QBs of his era. Brett Favre was very nearly equal to NFL HoF QBs when he was in college.

Compare an apple to an apple - you might come up with Jeff Blake. A guy that was roughly 10-15% less effective in completing passes than the better NFL guys of his era. OK career. Drafted in the 6th round, not first. Played a little bit. 39-61 record. Stuck around. Known for having a live arm and was mobile. 

Brett Favre? SMH.  Punching out of your league to compare Josh Allen to Brett Favre. Guys are just reaching for straws here. Let the kid be the kid. 

 

Clearly stated best case scenario was Brett Favre, and that Allen was not my first pick.

 

Tried to show a SB winning QB with sub statistical ability to win it all

 

Appaently too much positivity to handle on this board.

 

Jeezus BBMB was less negative.

[RocCityRoller]

14 hours ago, H2o said:

Ok, so I have looked more extensively at Allen and Rosen since my initial wave of turrets when we drafted Allen over Rosen. 

 

Allen first. There is no denying the physical gifts that Allen has been blessed with. There is not a pass he cannot throw. There is no weather situation he couldn't still throw the ball around in. He can throw a Hail Mary that could reach the endzone if we were on our own 25 if necessary. When his base is solid he rips accurate passes, granted most of them come out like rockets. The problem at Wyoming was he was under pressure almost all the time. I think that affected the numbers that we see quite a bit. He didn't really have the time to set his feet and his pass catchers never really separate. Especially when they faced the larger programs with higher level recruits on defense, the disparity of talent on his OL and his receiving corps was clearly evident. In those games he struggled because of rhe way things broke down on basically every drop back. It led to terrible decisions, because he was trying to make a play every single time, and his numbers suffered. He was clearly the best player on a bad team. Worlds of potential. Seems smart. Has to put it together on the field. I think he is a player who can perform better than he did in college due to the fact he will have NFL talent around him. The mental aspect, reading defenses, and operating better when he sets his feet to throw timing routes will be huge. He will have to learn to look off defenders. This isn't backyard Wyoming football anymore. These are the best of the best every time he steps on the field. Learn the system, operate to the best of your ability within that system, but don't try to do too much within that system because not every play is meant to be a scoring play. As much as I hated the pick when it happened, he does have the chance to be what we have waited for since 1996 which is the next great Bills QB. 

 

Rosen second. Rosen was one of the two guys I wanted. He is as polished a prospect as you will ever see. He can make every throw that you will see on an NFL field. He manipulates defenses with his eyes. He steps up in big games. His draw backs are his attitude, clearly evidenced in his post draft presser, and hus injury history. I believe he is greater in his mind than he is in reality at this point. He hasn't stepped foot on an NFL field, but in his mind believes he is Aaron Rodgers. Josh, just because you weren't taken until #10 overall and were the 4th QB off of the board does not mean you were slighted. It means the concerns people had about you did effect your standing with the teams who drafted someone else. Stfu, get to work, and let your play speak for itself. I just want to say that I think Mora is a douche nozzle, but I believe his original statements about Rosen are exactly what he thought about him and they may very well be true. Comes off like a total Prima Donna. I don't see that as something that meshed well with what Beane and McDermott are trying to build here. It doesn't mean that I think he is a lesser prospect than Allen, I'm just saying that I believe I am starting to understand the "why" a little bit more. 

 

Just my 2 my friends. 

 

deleted

Edited April 30, 2018 by RocCityRoller

[H2o]

Just now, RocCityRoller said:

 

I appreciate you and the thought you put in.

 

I was only trying to show that there is an occasonal QB that breaks the QB draft stats and analytics mold and is great, but it is rare, very rare.

 

Read the whole post. It's not a comparison, it's a hope. I love that McBean Swung for greatness in the first round of this draft on offense and defense.

 

If you can't hope Josh Allen can beat the odds and be Favre eseque (country boy beating the odds) then why do you watch or comment? I wanted to provide an uplifting example, and I got trashed.

 

Are you this miserable?

 I believe you quoted the wrong person my friend. I had not mentioned a word to you about any kind of comparisons. 

[BADOLBILZ]

16 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

 

The whole comps thing ... it's just stupid. Nobody was even saying Brett Favre was inaccurate. Here's a write up on him made by Kiper ... no commentary about him being inaccurate, although plenty about him having a strong arm. 

Look, just let the kid be who he's going to be is all I'm saying. It took years for Favre to stop being quite a cowboy - maybe he never did. Maybe what makes our guy special is that he listens to coaches and puts his game under control, and throwing 15 yard bullets is what opens the deep game. I don't know. 

But leave Brett's name out of this. He has nothing as a comp to Allen. Hope y'all enjoy the writeup on the NFL's happiest warrior.
 

 

 

They weren't saying Favre was inaccurate because back then big armed meathead QB's could still excel in the league with lower %'s.    

 

We are in agreement though........he's going to be who he's going to be and there is a lot more room between being a surgical passer and being a bust than people here want to believe.   

 

 

[RocCityRoller]

25 minutes ago, H2o said:

 I believe you quoted the wrong person my friend. I had not mentioned a word to you about any kind of comparisons. 

 

Typical... it's that kind of day

 

Have a beautiful day!

[PIZ]

 

 

 

[PIZ]

 

 

 

 

[BuffaloHokie13]

2 hours ago, Bangarang said:

I really don’t agree with the assessment that he’s a generational talent. I have my opinion and that really won’t change until he actually gets on the field.

Look, I'm not trying to change your mind at all because I agree that only Allen's play will be the proof in the pudding, but I did find it incredibly interesting that Trent Dilfer (the guy that does the elite 11 camp and works with a ton of the top QBs in the draft) said that the only guys he saw throw like this kid were Elway & Favre. If those are the only 2 names he could come up with that's pretty much generational talent imo.

[26CornerBlitz]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Look, I'm not trying to change your mind at all because I agree that only Allen's play will be the proof in the pudding, but I did find it incredibly interesting that Trent Dilfer (the guy that does the elite 11 camp and works with a ton of the top QBs in the draft) said that the only guys he saw throw like this kid were Elway & Favre. If those are the only 2 names he could come up with that's pretty much generational talent imo.

 

Hard to say that with arm strength only a part of the equation that leads to greatness at the NFL level.  There is so much more beyond that as you already know.

Edited April 29, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz

[CommonCents]

1 minute ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Look, I'm not trying to change your mind at all because I agree that only Allen's play will be the proof in the pudding, but I did find it incredibly interesting that Trent Dilfer (the guy that does the elite 11 camp and works with a ton of the top QBs in the draft) said that the only guys he saw throw like this kid were Elway & Favre. If those are the only 2 names he could come up with that's pretty much generational talent imo.

I don’t get what people aren’t seeing. There is one play where he rolls to his right with a defender coming right in his face, he flicks a high lob 35 yards down field right into his TE for a touchdown. If he threw it any other way it was a pick or incompletion. 

 

Zero hesitation, it comes natural to this kid. Sure he has things to work, don’t they all.

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Hard to say that with arm strength only a part of the equation that leads to greatness at the NFL level.  There is so much more beyond that as you already know.

His exact quote wasn't about just his arm strength, but the feeling he got just watching him throw the ball and working with him, IIRC.

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

His exact quote wasn't about just his arm strength, but the feeling he got just watching him throw the ball and working with him, IIRC.

 

From a soul and science episode?  He had good things to say about each participant in the entire series and that includes the other Allen named Kyle.  Doesn't mean much in that context.