alg Posted April 29, 2018 Posted April 29, 2018 7 hours ago, OJABBA said: That clip has inspired me to make my first post in 10 plus years. That was fricking awesome. I am pumped about Josh Allen! 5 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 29, 2018 Posted April 29, 2018 7 hours ago, RocCityRoller said: But I took a day to absorb it and started looking for best case scenario comparables. I needed to find a big country boy, with escape ability, a big arm, a cheery disposition, a gunslinger mentality (will take chances, throw some wow TDs and some head slapping INTS), and underwhelming college stats against fairly weak college competition. I found the best case comp I can hope for. Final college year stat comparison: QB A - 150 CMP/ 275 ATT - 54.5%, 1572 YARDS, 5.7 Y/A, 7 TD, 6 INT 106.6 RATE QB B - 152 CMP/ 270 ATT - 56.3%, 1812 YARDS, 6.7 Y/A, 16 TD, 6 INT 127.8 RATE QB A is Brett Favre, QB B is Josh Allen Those of you younger fans know of Brett Favre the Hall of Fame QB, but he had a very bumpy start. His first game action was Nathan Peterman esque. 0 comp on 4 attempts, 2 INTS, a sack and an incompletion. He was so bad Atlanta gave up on him after a year, he never saw the field again for them. Their coach didn't even want him drafted. GB had wanted him and took him. I don't think Favre is a good comparable to Allen. Glanville is on the record of saying " Anybody who says I didn't want him (Favre) is a bold-faced liar." But a big part of the reason Favre had a crappy start in Atlanta was by all reports, he was a big Party Boy and with the goal to close every bar in the city. Reportedly he didn't learn the scout team plays. Being traded to a city with minimal party life and bars that closed early probably saved Favre's career. I think Newton is a good comparable. Beane is familiar with Newton and how Carolina ran their offense with Newton. And yes, Carolina tries to help Newton by getting him big WR with large catch radius and vertical leap because he's still not a very precise passer. He has had 2 out of 7 years in the league >60% completions and he throws (by comparison to other 'franchise' QB) a lot of picks. In my 3-numeric-criteria QB draft analysis where completion % is one criterion, Newton actually scores as a bust (make of that what you will) but his mobility and arm strength are felt to make up for that. I think the Newton-like potential drove the selection for Beane. I am hoping that Allen is a more cerebral player who is able to learn to process the game better and make better decisions.
Heitz Posted April 29, 2018 Posted April 29, 2018 Again and fwiw Quote @AllbrightNFL Buffalo and Arizona both had Allen as QB1. 1 1
Figster Posted April 29, 2018 Posted April 29, 2018 17 minutes ago, alg said: That clip has inspired me to make my first post in 10 plus years. That was fricking awesome. I am pumped about Josh Allen! The accuracy part of the conversation was very interesting. I can't get over the 72 mph Allen is getting on some of his throws. thats unheard of, and he drops back on his own 7 yard line at the combine and rings his target at the opponents 24 are you friggin kidding me... ...good grief...
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted April 29, 2018 Posted April 29, 2018 1 minute ago, Figster said: The accuracy part of the conversation was very interesting. I can't get over the 72 mph Allen is getting on some of his throws. thats unheard of, and he drops back on his own 7 yard line at the combine and rings his target at the opponents 24 are you friggin kidding me... ...good grief... ...LOL....velocity ain't everything....during draft week, studio analyst WR Steve Smith said he used to sit out Ravens drills with Ryan (Rubber) Mallet because he didn't want to" lose a hand" in practice......touch works for me...... 1
Lurker Posted April 29, 2018 Posted April 29, 2018 35 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I don't think Favre is a good comparable to Allen. Got that right. Anybody that compares any QB from Favre's era to today's crop looses enormous credibility...
RaoulDuke79 Posted April 29, 2018 Posted April 29, 2018 Love it or hate it. He's our guy and we need him to succeed. 3
Figster Posted April 29, 2018 Posted April 29, 2018 33 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said: ...LOL....velocity ain't everything....during draft week, studio analyst WR Steve Smith said he used to sit out Ravens drills with Ryan (Rubber) Mallet because he didn't want to" lose a hand" in practice......touch works for me...... no its not everything, but good to have in your arsenal my friend, Allen could take a defenders head off with that kind of velocity... ...that'll teach em... 1
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted April 29, 2018 Posted April 29, 2018 3 minutes ago, Figster said: no its not everything, but good to have in your arsenal my friend, Allen could take a defenders head off with that kind of velocity... ...that'll teach em... ...LMAO......that visual solidifies my opinion that you're the best.............. 1
Lurker Posted April 29, 2018 Posted April 29, 2018 10 minutes ago, Figster said: Allen could take a defenders head off with that kind of velocity... Well, Allen tried that at the Combine and it didn't work: 3
mannc Posted April 29, 2018 Posted April 29, 2018 51 minutes ago, Lurker said: Got that right. Anybody that compares any QB from Favre's era to today's crop looses enormous credibility... Utter nonsense 1
Figster Posted April 29, 2018 Posted April 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, Lurker said: Well, Allen tried that at the Combine and it didn't work: What accuracy problems, lol 1
RocCityRoller Posted April 29, 2018 Posted April 29, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, Lurker said: Got that right. Anybody that compares any QB from Favre's era to today's crop looses enormous credibility... Recall I was looking for a best case scenario, a positive. Quite simply no one else in the last 20 years has made that jump. The skills, potential, issues, plusses and minuses measure up statistically. And though you may not recall football 20 or even 30 years ago, many people do. It's not as far away as you think. There is a theory that a sub 58.5% (or 60% net) completion percentage in the final year of college correlates to a QB having a positive W-L record in the NFL. http://dailydolphin.blog.palmbeachpost.com/2011/04/17/by-the-numbers-first-round-quarterbacks-dominate-nfl-landscape/ https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/65zs0w/oc_why_585_is_the_magic_number_for_qbs_in_the_nfl/ The last two QBs to have a positive +/_ win total were David Garrard (2002) and Brett Favre (1991), and only Favre in the last 30 yrs reached a Super Bowl. So excuse me for the history. This was the crux of me being against Josh Allen as the pick. The odds were against him ever reaching a SB. Believe it or not Mason Rudlolph has much higher odds (roughly 1-10%). The potential for a SB QB under these conditions drops this to 3 standard deviations from the mean since Garrard never made a SB. In short it would take a true generational talent (2% or every 30-40 yrs) to break the barrier. McBean believes Josh Allen to be the barrier breaker, because he has Brett Favre like skills. He has the arm, the release and the smarts (37 Wonderlic) to do it. If you count on stats only, Allen will be a failure. However the NFL is statistically halfway due for the next 'Brett Favre'. A brash young man with a 58.5 or less completion % in college, that just knows how to play football. And we may have got him. McBean went for the 1-2%, and I applaud them for it. You can believe or not, but Allen has all the traits and more of the previous curve pusher. Edited April 29, 2018 by RocCityRoller 1 1
RocCityRoller Posted April 29, 2018 Posted April 29, 2018 1 hour ago, Figster said: The accuracy part of the conversation was very interesting. I can't get over the 72 mph Allen is getting on some of his throws. thats unheard of, and he drops back on his own 7 yard line at the combine and rings his target at the opponents 24 are you friggin kidding me... ...good grief... The term generational talent is thrown around too much these days. Allen is a generational (20 yr) talent. He is a curve pusher, and we got him. We need to be patient. 1
Bangarang Posted April 29, 2018 Posted April 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, RocCityRoller said: The term generational talent is thrown around too much these days. Allen is a generational (20 yr) talent. He is a curve pusher, and we got him. We need to be patient. Stahp Generational talent? Why? 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 29, 2018 Posted April 29, 2018 59 minutes ago, Figster said: no its not everything, but good to have in your arsenal my friend, Allen could take a defenders head off with that kind of velocity... ...that'll teach em... (trying to draw up a play that somehow puts Allen in on defense, gets the ball into his hands, and lets him throw at someone whose name rhymes with Palm Maybe)
Augie Posted April 29, 2018 Posted April 29, 2018 8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: (trying to draw up a play that somehow puts Allen in on defense, gets the ball into his hands, and lets him throw at someone whose name rhymes with Palm Maybe) Hopefully he’d have time to properly inflate that ball so it was as hard as a rock. Or maybe he could pull a Baker Mayfield and bean him in warmups? Hey, we’ve all heard how he’s not very accurate..... It just might work in his favor for a change?
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 29, 2018 Posted April 29, 2018 49 minutes ago, RocCityRoller said: Recall I was looking for a best case scenario, a positive. (...) If you count on stats only, Allen will be a failure. However the NFL is statistically halfway due for the next 'Brett Favre'. A brash young man with a 58.5 or less completion % in college, that just knows how to play football. And we may have got him. McBean went for the 1-2%, and I applaud them for it. You can believe or not, but Allen has all the traits and more of the previous curve pusher. I understand your comparison better now. Overall, I think your point is valid - not necessarily the Favre comparison, but the fact that Beane went for the guy with the sky-high ceiling (hoping he can bury the potato and cure his warts) over the guy who has shown more demonstrated ability as a QB today and may have a higher floor, but a lower ceiling. And that seems to be a pattern shown in this draft. But if they really think it's 1-2%, they may not last too long, and I'd like to play poker with them. I offer one snarky, and one serious point back: 1. hopefully NOT the see-bar-drink-bar-dry trait of young Favre 2. I think the basis of the counter point (against comparing a QB from Favre's era) is that the game was a bit different then - less pass-centric, more smash-mouth. The same QB performance which was League MVP in Favre's time, might not get it done these days. 1
BADOLBILZ Posted April 29, 2018 Posted April 29, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bangarang said: Stahp Generational talent? Why? The previous post explained it. He has dime throws at incredible velocity or unbelievable distance on tape already that you've basically never seen. Coupled with the size, athleticism, intelligence and relative newness to the position he has a mountain of upside. I don't know if he will make it.........Darnold and Rosen were a bit separate from the rest at 1&2 IMO..........but Allen could be great and Rosen could be a less durable Cutler as well. This thread was entirely predictable though.....I could see it building all offseason with a bunch of proven blockheads suddenly thinking they were suddenly football literate. They got far too invested in their QB opinions working under the notion that there was only one or two who could make it. But then there is 1983............or the top 3 QB's picked in 2004 all becoming sure-fire HOF's. Take Allen for what he is...........a guy who could have gone #1 in many given drafts. 4 1
Bangarang Posted April 29, 2018 Posted April 29, 2018 7 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: The previous post explained it. He has dime throws at incredible velocity or unbelievable distance on tape already that you've basically never seen. Coupled with the size, athleticism, intelligence and relative newness to the position he has a mountain of upside. I don't know if he will make it.........Darnold and Rosen were a bit separate from the rest at 1&2 IMO..........but Allen could be great and Rosen could be a less durable Cutler as well. This thread was entirely predictable though.....I could see it building all offseason with a bunch of proven blockheads suddenly thinking they were suddenly football literate. They got far too invested in their QB opinions working under the notion that there was only one or two who could make it. But then there is 1983............or the top 3 QB's picked in 2004 all becoming sure-fire HOF's. Take Allen for what he is...........a guy who could have gone #1 in many given drafts. I really don’t agree with the assessment that he’s a generational talent. I have my opinion and that really won’t change until he actually gets on the field. 1
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