RD1, Pick 7: Josh Allen QB - Wyoming

[RocCityRoller]

I didn't want Allen. I also didn't want Rosen or Jackson.

 

My preferences were:

Darnold

Mayfield

Rudolph

 

With Mayfield and Darnold gone, and Buffalo moving up to 7 I knew it would be Allen, which was the best of Allen/Rosen/Jackson to me.

 

I am leary of the sub 58.5% final year completion rate. It's got about a 0.9 correlation with success or failure in the NFL (very high correlation).

 

But I took a day to absorb it and started looking for best case scenario comparables.

 

I needed to find a big country boy, with escape ability, a big arm, a cheery disposition, a gunslinger mentality (will take chances, throw some wow TDs and some head slapping INTS), and underwhelming college stats against fairly weak college competition.

 

I found the best case comp I can hope for.

 

Final college year stat comparison:

 

QB A - 150 CMP/ 275 ATT - 54.5%, 1572 YARDS, 5.7 Y/A, 7 TD, 6 INT 106.6 RATE

QB B - 152 CMP/ 270 ATT - 56.3%, 1812 YARDS, 6.7 Y/A, 16 TD, 6 INT 127.8 RATE

 

QB A is Brett Favre, QB B is Josh Allen

 

Those of you younger fans know of Brett Favre the Hall of Fame QB, but he had a very bumpy start. His first game action was Nathan Peterman esque. 0 comp on 4 attempts, 2 INTS, a sack and an incompletion. He was so bad Atlanta gave up on him after a year, he never saw the field again for them. Their coach didn't even want him drafted. GB had wanted him and took him.

 

IMO our best case scenario with Allen is Favre. It's the most honest best case benchmark I can find.

 

Favre was a light hearted, big armed, scrambling gunslinger. He would make wow plays and some real head scratchers. GB won with Favre and often lost with Favre. We have to let Josh Allen be Josh Allen. Favre's first year was effectively a sit year (played in the one 'Peterman'  game in Atlanta).

 

His first two years as a starter (yrs 2-3 in the NFL)  were ok:

13 games (8-5) 302 CMP/ 471 ATT - 64.1%, 3227 YARDS, 6.9 Y/A, 18 TD, 13 INT 85.3 RATE

16 games (9-7) 318 CMP/ 522 ATT - 60.9%, 3303 YARDS, 6.3 Y/A, 19 TD, 24 INT 72.2 RATE

 

That's a whopping 62% completion rate, 37 tds to 37 ints, 17-12 record. That was in year 2 and 3.

 

When Favre retired he had improved but retired with the most INTS thrown in NFL history. But Favre was always looking to keep plays alive, ran a round like a chicken with his head cut off and always looked downfield for a big play, and a times trusted his arm too much. Looking at Allen's college film the past two days, this is what I see with Allen. The GB coaching staff had to reign in Favre at times, I think we will see that with Allen too.We will also see dazzling plays and head scratching Ints.

 

I think Favre is our best case scenario for Allen. If we get close to that then Allen will be a spectacular pick.

 

Another note, Cam Newton another comparable also has similar traits. Notice how Carolina helps Cam with his accuracy issues by getting big receivers with a large catch radius? Favre's favorite target in his early years wasn't a WR but Sharpe, a big fast TE with a large catch radius. (EDIT Sharpe was a big bodied WR with a big catch radius, I was corrected per below, but the point stands) Benjamin and Jones (that was his calling card in college) do fit that bill.

 

Well, I just wanted to share that for what it's worth.

 

Welcome to Buffalo Josh Allen. I hope we are patient enough to see you blossom into the QB you can become.

 

 

 

Edited April 29, 2018 by RocCityRoller

[GETTOTHE50]

I just watched josh !@#$s allen senior bowl highlights.

 

I am convinced.

 

he is going to be !@#$ing awesome 

[Prickly Pete]

 

[Billsfansinceday1]

There were 2 Wyoming players drafted in 2017...was there a second player this year?  I am not seeing any listed but could well be wrong.

 

Either way, that does say a lot about Josh Allen to be graded so highly with a weak supporting cast.

Edited April 29, 2018 by Billsfansinceday1

[Max Fischer]

46 minutes ago, Billsfansinceday1 said:

There were 2 Wyoming players drafted in 2017...was there a second player this year?  I am not seeing any listed but could well be wrong.

 

Either way, that does say a lot about Josh Allen to be graded so highly with a weak supporting cast.

 

Isnt he graded against all college football players?  

[Skins Malone]

8 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

At Wyoming the last two years he played with only two drafted NFL players he’s got some work to do but man to say Wyoming had no talent compared to the schools of the other qb prospects is an understatement 

I just wish we had some more weapons for him right now...granted he probably wont start this year. 

[CheshireCT]

I like Allen's demeanor. He seems well-balanced, open to criticism and a worker (in addition to his size, athleticism, and arm). In the end, teams don't draft football players, they draft people. I think they got the right guy.

[cd1]

I was numb when they announced his name.

 

Now I can't wait to see what this kid can do with NFL caliber players around him!

 

 

 

[SMAKCruiser]

4 hours ago, RocCityRoller said:

I didn't want Allen. I also didn't want Rosen or Jackson.

 

My preferences were:

Darnold

Mayfield

Rudolph

 

With Mayfield and Darnold gone, and Buffalo moving up to 7 I knew it would be Allen, which was the best of Allen/Rosen/Jackson to me.

 

I am leary of the sub 58.5% final year completion rate. It's got about a 0.9 correlation with success or failure in the NFL (very high correlation).

 

But I took a day to absorb it and started looking for best case scenario comparables.

 

I needed to find a big country boy, with escape ability, a big arm, a cheery disposition, a gunslinger mentality (will take chances, throw some wow TDs and some head slapping INTS), and underwhelming college stats against fairly weak college competition.

 

I found the best case comp I can hope for.

 

Final college year stat comparison:

 

QB A - 150 CMP/ 275 ATT - 54.5%, 1572 YARDS, 5.7 Y/A, 7 TD, 6 INT 106.6 RATE

QB B - 152 CMP/ 270 ATT - 56.3%, 1812 YARDS, 6.7 Y/A, 16 TD, 6 INT 127.8 RATE

 

QB A is Brett Favre, QB B is Josh Allen

 

Those of you younger fans know of Brett Favre the Hall of Fame QB, but he had a very bumpy start. His first game action was Nathan Peterman esque. 0 comp on 4 attempts, 2 INTS, a sack and an incompletion. He was so bad Atlanta gave up on him after a year, he never saw the field again for them. Their coach didn't even want him drafted. GB had wanted him and took him.

 

IMO our best case scenario with Allen is Favre. It's the most honest best case benchmark I can find.

 

Favre was a light hearted, big armed, scrambling gunslinger. He would make wow plays and some real head scratchers. GB won with Favre and often lost with Favre. We have to let Josh Allen be Josh Allen. Favre's first year was effectively a sit year (played in the one 'Peterman'  game in Atlanta).

 

His first two years as a starter (yrs 2-3 in the NFL)  were ok:

13 games (8-5) 302 CMP/ 471 ATT - 64.1%, 3227 YARDS, 6.9 Y/A, 18 TD, 13 INT 85.3 RATE

16 games (9-7) 318 CMP/ 522 ATT - 60.9%, 3303 YARDS, 6.3 Y/A, 19 TD, 24 INT 72.2 RATE

 

That's a whopping 62% completion rate, 37 tds to 37 ints, 16-12 record. That was in year 2 and 3.

 

When Favre retired he had improved but retired with the most INTS thrown in NFL history. But Favre was always looking to keep plays alive, ran a round like a chicken with his head cut off and always looked downfield for a big play, and a times trusted his arm too much. Looking at Allen's college film the past two days, this is what I see with Allen. The GB coaching staff had to reign in Favre at times, I think we will see that with Allen too.We will also see dazzling plays and head scratching Ints.

 

I think Favre is our best case scenario for Allen. If we get close to that then Allen will be a spectacular pick.

 

Another note, Cam Newton another comparable also has similar traits. Notice how Carolina helps Cam with his accuracy issues by getting big receivers with a large catch radius? Favre's favorite target in his early years wasn't a WR but Sharpe, a big fast TE with a large catch radius. Benjamin and Jones (that was his calling card in college) do fit that bill.

 

Well, I just wanted to share that for what it's worth.

 

Welcome to Buffalo Josh Allen. I hope we are patient enough to see you blossom into the QB you can become.

 

 

 

 

 

I am pretty sure Sterling Sharpe was a WR, not a TE.  His brother Shannon was a TE.

[RocCityRoller]

16 minutes ago, SMAKCruiser said:

 

 

I am pretty sure Sterling Sharpe was a WR, not a TE.  His brother Shannon was a TE.

 

True enough Sterling was a WR, who had a huge catch radius. He was a big bodied WR. I misspoke there, what about the rest?

[SMAKCruiser]

9 minutes ago, RocCityRoller said:

 

True enough Sterling was a WR, who had a huge catch radius. He was a big bodied WR. I misspoke there, what about the rest?

 

The rest was right on the money.   

[ALF]

Allen's injury history is reason enough to sit him till the OL is viable.

 

https://corner.bigblueinteractive.com/index.php?mode=2&thread=566876

[wppete]

 

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, RocCityRoller said:

 

True enough Sterling was a WR, who had a huge catch radius. He was a big bodied WR. I misspoke there, what about the rest?

I like your posts.  Insightful and well-written.

[JaCrispy]

5 hours ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

I just watched josh !@#$s allen senior bowl highlights.

 

I am convinced.

 

he is going to be !@#$ing awesome 

If he can put it all together he definitely has the potential to be great...the interesting thing is he looks so much better in the senior bowl game than during his regular season.

[Eric Moulds on my A**]

2 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

If he can put it all together he definitely has the potential to be great...the interesting thing is he looks so much better in the senior bowl game than during his regular season.

Watch his pro day and you'll understand why. His WR's wouldn't be on the bench in the NFL, or any collegiate power house. 

[RocCityRoller]

21 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I like your posts.  Insightful and well-written.

 

Thank you. Tip of the hat to you as well. I had to make the Luck Troll post as an initial 'splash' on OBD LOL!

Yet we have a rookie with one of the 5 best arms in the NFL and Luck is not even throwing footballs.

 

I wanted to try to figure out why McBean went Allen. The best I can tell, they see a little Brett Favre in Allen. If those are the fences this team is swinging for I am on board. But it will take 2-3 years to come to fruition. We will have to let Allen take his lumps and grow. The comps are there though. Stats, background, make up. It's all there.

[RocCityRoller]

6 hours ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

I just watched josh !@#$s allen senior bowl highlights.

 

I am convinced.

 

he is going to be !@#$ing awesome 

 

They really are nice aren't they? Mostly FBS players, all seniors, most drafted and Allen shined. He was the best North QB out there.

[Rufridr101]

Allen played in a prostyle offense under center nearly 50% of the time making big boy throws to below average receivers scored above average on the wonderlic the minute he is inserted in the game defenses will play deep opening up running game absolutely love this pick the goal is winning Superbowl not just being competitive 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

3 hours ago, SMAKCruiser said:

 

 

I am pretty sure Sterling Sharpe was a WR, not a TE.  His brother Shannon was a TE.

 

...yup....and career was cut short by neck injury........this kid had game.....Shannon had game AND a mouth...LMAO..........