The fallacy of Allen being the bigger "risk" than Rosen

[Thurman#1]

On 4/27/2018 at 10:07 PM, Magox said:

 

The fallacy of Allen Being the bigger risk than Rosen

 

 

 

 

Quick point for you and what seems like half the board at various times ... an opinion with which you disagree is NOT a "fallacy."

Edited July 3, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

12 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

True but some are riskier than others.  The Rosen slide reminds of the Rodgers’ slide in his draft.  Obviously I’m not an “expert” but of all the qbs in this draft, Rosen looked like a potential franchise guy.   All I’ve heard of Allen is excuses for his faults.  I think people completely are overlooking how crappy UCLA was.  They had one of the worst defenses in the entire country (Jim Mora defensive guru!!!) and there weren’t a lot of players surrounding Rosen.  He basically needed to put 40 points/ game.  And as other have pointed out, he missed less games in college than Allen.

 

You dont draft qb prospects in the top 10.  It’s why I don’t like the Allen pick.  Of the games I watched, he seemed like the definition of a mid round, huge potential upside pick.  

 

While its unfair, Allen will always be linked with Rosen, Mahomes, and Watson.  And those guys are in much better situations than Allen.  I think Rosen is going to be really, really good and playing with Fitz will him those leadership “questions.”

 

 

Rosen "slid" to #10, while QBs were being picked right and left. People weren't saying at #5 ... where's Rosen going? Where's he going to fall? It was still "Where will Rosen and Allen go?"

 

Rodgers slide to #24 after the only QB picked before him went #1. 

 

There isn't much in common there. Teams that wanted QBs ahead of #10 were mostly picking other ones this last year. Whereas with Rodgers the teams that wanted QBs were going with other positions. That and with this group teams traded up to get one of the top four QBs, to #7 and #10 specifically. Nobody traded up to get Rodgers.

[starrymessenger]

Beane swings for the fences: Allen, Edmunds. So be it, what's done is done.

I didn't agree with his decision. I discount Allen's purported upside advantage because I think Rosen will be very good, and quite possibly very, very good. In fact I think Rosen is more likely to be very, very good than Allen. There is no doubting Allen's upside but my impression is that a reflex reaction has been to unthinkingly assume that Rosen, being good already, can't get any better. My view is that he stands an excellent chance of building on his remarkable skillset as a pro. So I guess I can confess to being a fan of his.

I suspect Rosen's personality was a factor weighing against him in the hallowed halls of the conservative GM club. There is some sense to this and it's a relevant issue to be sure. However, JMO but I believe the preponderance of evidence suggests strongly an AR personality type rather than a Jeff George/Cutler personality type. The kind of guy who can make you regret passing on him.

Having said all that, I also believe that, as advertised, this was an exceptional QB class with five guys fully justifying a first round grade. 

Since we picked a first round worthy QB in the first round I have no problem deferring to the guy who makes these decisions for a living.

All things considered Allen too is in my view an outstanding prospect and I have no problem getting fully behind him.

[Behindenemylines]

My belief is that talent aside, players will be led by Allen because they will want to follow him.  He will earn that following which creates a true team. On the other hand players will follow Rosen because they have to more based on the position.  Huge difference on the overall performance of the unit, especially when it comes to those games needing everyone pulling at 110%

[C.Biscuit97]

8 minutes ago, Behindenemylines said:

My belief is that talent aside, players will be led by Allen because they will want to follow him.  He will earn that following which creates a true team. On the other hand players will follow Rosen because they have to more based on the position.  Huge difference on the overall performance of the unit, especially when it comes to those games needing everyone pulling at 110%

No offense but this is based off nothing.  

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Rosen "slid" to #10, while QBs were being picked right and left. People weren't saying at #5 ... where's Rosen going? Where's he going to fall? It was still "Where will Rosen and Allen go?"

 

Rodgers slide to #24 after the only QB picked before him went #1. 

 

There isn't much in common there. Teams that wanted QBs ahead of #10 were mostly picking other ones this last year. Whereas with Rodgers the teams that wanted QBs were going with other positions. That and with this group teams traded up to get one of the top four QBs, to #7 and #10 specifically. Nobody traded up to get Rodgers.

I think Rosen will be the best qb in this draft.  So him going 4th in the draft is a slide.   I think Rosen is the QB in this draft who reminds me of Rodgers.

 

And I hope I’m wrong about this. 

[Behindenemylines]

7 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

No offense but this is based off nothing.  

I think Rosen will be the best qb in this draft.  So him going 4th in the draft is a slide.   I think Rosen is the QB in this draft who reminds me of Rodgers.

 

And I hope I’m wrong about this. 

From what I have read and seen that is my take, hence "my belief.  Rosen has had personality red flags all his career and Allen has not.  From my experience dealing with thousands of people on a somewhat intimate level the Rosen personality type tends to be as I described and Allen also.  This is not based on skillset just personality and leadership style. Maybe I'm wrong maybe not. 

[C.Biscuit97]

2 minutes ago, Behindenemylines said:

From what I have read and seen that is my take, hence "my belief.  Rosen has had personality red flags all his career and Allen has not.  From my experience dealing with thousands of people on a somewhat intimate level the Rosen personality type tends to be as I described and Allen also.  This is not based on skillset just personality and leadership style. Maybe I'm wrong maybe not. 

Not one teammate ever said a negative thing about him. Not one.  He’s not a robot, speaks his mind, and wore a F Trump hat.  That’s it. 

 

My question is if Rosen was more of a robot, who gets drafted higher, him or Allen?

[Behindenemylines]

Speaking your mind is fine..I do it all day long however the way your message gets delivered and received absolutely affects its meaning.  

 

From my original post this is what I was stating.  You can have men want to follow you because they believe in you or they will follow you because they need to (or have to)   This is not to say you can't be successful and win but in team settings the most minuscule distraction can lead to failure.  That's why coaches pay attention to the feeling of the locker room.  Just look at how many truly talented players get moved on out because of personality.

 

Not saying this happens to Rosen, just that he has a higher chance of causing issues than the others. 

 

And if he was naturally more even keeled then I think he may have gone higher.  And to don't think Allen is a robot- I think he's genuinely who he presents to be

[C.Biscuit97]

Just now, Behindenemylines said:

Speaking your mind is fine..I do it all day long however the way your message gets delivered and received absolutely affects its meaning.  

 

From my original post this is what I was stating.  You can have men want to follow you because they believe in you or they will follow you because they need to (or have to)   This is not to say you can't be successful and win but in team settings the most minuscule distraction can lead to failure.  That's why coaches pay attention to the feeling of the locker room.  Just look at how many truly talented players get moved on out because of personality.

 

Not saying this happens to Rosen, just that he has a higher chance of causing issues than the others. 

 

And if he was naturally more even keeled then I think he may have gone higher.  And to don't think Allen is a robot- I think he's genuinely who he presents to be

I just think the whole Rosen after Kaepernick thing scared teams.  They want robots.  I’m not saying Allen is a robot but he doesn’t seem the type to speak about social issues.  

 

They are are many different types of leaders.  Brady screams at his coaches and teammates.  Rodgers seems like he can be aloof.  Cam is a front runner.  Goff seems like a stoned surfer.  Players follow talent.  And I think Rosen learning under Fitz is going to be amazing for him.

[John from Riverside]

41 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

No offense but this is based off nothing.  

I think Rosen will be the best qb in this draft.  So him going 4th in the draft is a slide.   I think Rosen is the QB in this draft who reminds me of Rodgers.

 

And I hope I’m wrong about this. 

If I was a cardinal fan I would hold my breath every time Rosen took  a hit

[C.Biscuit97]

5 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

If I was a cardinal fan I would hold my breath every time Rosen took  a hit

Again, he missed less games than Allen in college. And you should hold your breath any time a qb gets hit.

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Again, he missed less games than Allen in college. And you should hold your breath any time a qb gets hit.

Not all injuries are equal......concussions are cumulative and cannot be fixed.   And Rosen has had a number of them.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

36 minutes ago, Behindenemylines said:

From my original post this is what I was stating.  You can have men want to follow you because they believe in you or they will follow you because they need to (or have to)   This is not to say you can't be successful and win but in team settings the most minuscule distraction can lead to failure.  That's why coaches pay attention to the feeling of the locker room.  Just look at how many truly talented players get moved on out because of personality.

 

I dunno.  I've never been in an NFL locker room.  But I suspect the above is way overstated.   If a guy is successful as a QB, the team will WANT to follow him.  And if a guy has people believing in him, but can't cut the mustard, that belief will fade PDQ.  From what I can gather, Aaron Rodgers is kind of a self-centered tool.    Betcha he has a lot of team support.

 

Again IMO, when truly talented players get moved on out because of "personality", that's often code word for guy isn't willing to suspend disbelief and hump his butt for a losing team.  I mean, seriously - how many guys get moved off a perennial contender because "personality"?

[Bing Bong]

21 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

Stopped reading with the reference to Rosen not being a "leader of men."

 

That is just made up BS that football fans talk about.

 

News flash: he doesn't need to be a leader of men, not that anyone knows if he is or isn't.  He needs to intelligently read defenses and throw a football accurately.  That's it.

True story!

 

 

Yep.wouldnt call Matt Ryan or Aaron Rodgers leader of men. Being a good quarterback tends to keep the team happy

 

The alpha male leader could be the center for all we know on some teams. We have Shady, who cares if it's not a QB

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, starrymessenger said:

Beane swings for the fences: Allen, Edmunds. So be it, what's done is done.

I didn't agree with his decision. I discount Allen's purported upside advantage because I think Rosen will be very good, and quite possibly very, very good. In fact I think Rosen is more likely to be very, very good than Allen. There is no doubting Allen's upside but my impression is that a reflex reaction has been to unthinkingly assume that Rosen, being good already, can't get any better. My view is that he stands an excellent chance of building on his remarkable skillset as a pro. So I guess I can confess to being a fan of his.

I suspect Rosen's personality was a factor weighing against him in the hallowed halls of the conservative GM club. There is some sense to this and it's a relevant issue to be sure. However, JMO but I believe the preponderance of evidence suggests strongly an AR personality type rather than a Jeff George/Cutler personality type. The kind of guy who can make you regret passing on him.

Having said all that, I also believe that, as advertised, this was an exceptional QB class with five guys fully justifying a first round grade. 

Since we picked a first round worthy QB in the first round I have no problem deferring to the guy who makes these decisions for a living.

All things considered Allen too is in my view an outstanding prospect and I have no problem getting fully behind him.

You actually bring up a very good point

 

What is Allen and Rosen both end up being good QBs.....but Rosen ends up being better?

 

Are ppl down that they got a good QB but not the BEST qb?  Or are they happy that we fixed the QB position and also improved other areas on the team in Tre White (the year earlier) and Edmunds (possibly a all pro lb) AND did it without giving up future assets?

 

Now THAT would be a bad problem to have

[starrymessenger]

28 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

You actually bring up a very good point

 

What is Allen and Rosen both end up being good QBs.....but Rosen ends up being better?

 

Are ppl down that they got a good QB but not the BEST qb?  Or are they happy that we fixed the QB position and also improved other areas on the team in Tre White (the year earlier) and Edmunds (possibly a all pro lb) AND did it without giving up future assets?

 

Now THAT would be a bad problem to have

 

In terms of first round QB success rates recent experience is actually pretty positive. Marriotta and JW are good enuf to build around and move forward with. Goff, Wentz, Watson, look good. Mahomes and Trubisky look to me to have real promise. At least they are certainly not looking like busts (yet). Only Paxton Lynch has to date actually failed to meet expectations.

JMO I would not be at all surprised if all of this year's first rounders develop into starter quality NFL QBs, and two or three into franchise guys. 

Im really excited about Josh Allen. His physical skillset is absolutely phenomenal and in a class by itself. He's a bright guy with a great attitude/maturity. That certainly counts for a lot. I just hope the Bills know how to bring him along properly. Jeff Fisher's old ways of doing things with no sensitivity to Goffs strengths/weaknesses almost torpedoed the kid's career (which now looks quite bright).

Edited July 3, 2018 by starrymessenger

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, starrymessenger said:

 

In terms of first round QB success rates recent experience is actually pretty positive. Marriott and JW are good enuf to build around and move forward with. Goff, Wentz, Watson, look good. Mahomes and Trubisky look to me to have real promise. At least they are certainly not looking like busts (yet). Only Paxton Lynch has to date actually failed to meet expectations.

JMO I would not be at all surprised if all of this year's first rounders develop into starter quality NFL QBs, and two or three into franchise guys. 

Im really excited about Josh Allen. His physical skillset is absolutely phenomenal and in a class by itself. He's a bright guy with a great attitude/maturity. That certainly counts for a lot. I just hope the Bills know how to bring him along properly. Jeff Fisher's old ways of doing things with no sensitivity to Goffs strengths/weaknesses almost torpedoed the kid's career (which now looks quite bright).

I was pretty happy that last years Bills OC get sent packing......we will have to see on the new one.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...realistically, doesn't every single one of them come with a risk from #1 overall to "Mr. Irrelevant" and hopefully the financial law of "diminishing returns" holds for bean counters?...aren't the "pros and cons" assessments principally based on collegiate performance (what else is there) and a huge dichotomy regarding level of competition?...safe to say the NFL World is a whole different ballgame from even the best college programs with the speed and complexity of the game with the Big Dawgs......the term BUST would never exist....so you fasten your seat belt, get out the Bourbon and ONE ice cube and stay tuned hoping for the best.....think about perhaps 650-700 people (wild guess) employed by NFL clubs as GM's, VP's of Personnel, Directors of Pro Player personnel and numerous scouts representing maybe $70-$85 mil and payroll and how many times "they whiff"......never will be an exact science..........

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

You actually bring up a very good point

 

What is Allen and Rosen both end up being good QBs.....but Rosen ends up being better?

 

Are ppl down that they got a good QB but not the BEST qb?  Or are they happy that we fixed the QB position and also improved other areas on the team in Tre White (the year earlier) and Edmunds (possibly a all pro lb) AND did it without giving up future assets?

 

Now THAT would be a bad problem to have

 

For me, if Allen even turns out to be servicable, not good - a guy you can win with, and who can run a 2 minute drill and put a scare on the other team with his arm...I'll be happy even if Rosen is a great QB.  Every year, QB who are arguably great QB like Brees, Rodgers, or very talented like Rivers, Ryan...get to go home while lesser guys go deep in the playoffs.

 

If Allen turns out to be a bust - a guy who can't manage to throw more TD than INT and who can't read the D and make the throws he needs to make in the NFL, but Rosen turns out to be great, I'll struggle with it.  I "get" the argument that all draftees have risk and teams have to prioritize and set their board, but still.

 

[Sky Diver]

Why wouldn’t Allen be able to read a defense? He’s probably in the 90th to 95th percentile for intelligence.