The fallacy of Allen being the bigger "risk" than Rosen

[Magox]

18 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

 

 

What I don't understand about this is that Mayfield had 2 concussions in 3 games and Allen not only has had repetitive shoulder injuries (HS and a soft tissue injury that cost him a few games) but his first year at Wyoming he was sidelined with what was described as "major surgical reconstruction" of his shoulder.  But I never heard press concern about Mayfield's concussions or Allen's shoulder.

 

 

 

 

 

We can agree to disagree.   Allen may have a higher ceiling (smart guy, powerful arm, mobile) but at this point he 100% needs development as a QB, and may or may not ever take the steps he needs to take to get to where Rosen is as a passer and in his ability to read a defense and get the ball where it needs to go.  Teammates will follow a winner, and Allen has injury risks that aren't being discussed.

 

All that said, Allen is a Bill now and I'll be pulling for his success.

 

 

 

In regards to the injury history, I do think there was considerably more evidence pointing to Rosen being more of an injury risk than Allen.  Obviously that may change but the body of work that is out there and considering their styles of play and their stature, strength, mobility and escapability point to Allen being able to avoid more injuries than Rosen.  That's my opinion.

 

In regards to Allen's ceiling and floor, the opinion that he is a high ceiling guy is well-documented but I believe there is a misnomer in regards to his floor.  We keep hearing Boom or Bust and that may be the case but I disagree with that characterization.  I happen to believe that his floor is much higher than popular belief.  I think he's got the ability to be more accurate than the reputation that precedes him and I believe he has got a very Roethlisbergeresque sort of an ability to extend plays and throw it on the run and outside of the pocket.   The kid is dynamite throwing the ball on the run and he likes to attack deep much like Roethlisberger.   I think he's going to be a very exciting prospect for us when the play breaks down.

[FearLess Price]

35 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

Explain to me what my "side" was.  I'd rather see that than what you posted.

 

Nice work OP.

 

I was crushed to the soul when we took Allen over Rosen. I didnt even get to see our 2nd pick. I knocked myself out with a zanny and a fat joint gugny style. Thats how pissed i was.

 

When i woke up i was like alright. Let me skip his highlights ive already seen and watch some games. I spent 2:30 to 3:30 watching his 2017 games on YouTube. 

 

His ball placement is bad, a lot. Some of his WRs make AMAZING catches. Idk why people play this angle up so much bc the only drop rate that should matter is Jacksons WRs they were worse.

I was surprised at how mobile he is. That is cool that gives me a little hope. He seems like a more mobile  rothlisberger. Im still pissed tho.

[hondo in seattle]

49 minutes ago, Magox said:

I want to preface these series of thoughts with the fact that I was hoping for Rosen over Allen.  With that said one of the common gripes that I am hearing from some of our fans on this board is that Josh Allen is the bigger risk for this franchise than Rosen.   The argument goes something along the lines that Rosen is the best pure passer, the most NFL ready therefore he's close to a sure thing.  Whereas Allen is the big armed QB who is inaccurate similar to EJ Manuel and he's got Bust written all over him.

 

On the surface this argument makes sense.

 

However, there are huge gaping holes with this argument.

 

A) One of the big things that people talked about including lots of whispers from NFL personnel is that Rosen was not a leader of men.  Some questioned his demeanor and whether or not his heart was fully in the game.  I don't know whether or not that stuff is true or not but it was definitely out there.  I will say this, the little that I observed of him I definitely saw a smugness about him.  Does that matter?  I don't know.  But it was certainly palpable and if I saw that after a few interviews then I'm certain that this reputation was observed by many others as well.   The fact that his ex coach Mora could not give him a full-throated endorsement and even picked his in-state rival as being the QB who should be picked first to me screams of a red flag.  Sure, Mora tried backtracking some and equivocating why he said that, but the bottom line is that he didn't feel the urge to gush about the player he coached.   

 

B) His injury concerns.  Will he be a Bradford sort of player?   I think that is a fair question.  He's had a couple concussions and I believe a shoulder injury that kept him out for some time.  He's not the most mobile QB, tends to hold on to the ball too long sometimes because he's a QB that likes to try to make plays but if you are in the NFL and you don't have great protection and you hold on to the ball too long and you are prone to some injuries, it's stands to reason to believe he could be an injury prone QB in this league.   That is a risk.

 

Allen on the other hand is a big hulking QB that can not only shake off arm tackles but he's very mobile and makes amazing throws on the run.  Considering the offensive line we have, this is probably a better fit than Rosen is essentially just a pocket passer.

 

While Allen has his shortcomings primarily in the accuracy department, it is an overblown charge that people make and it is without doubt in many cases an on-the-surface observation primarily to the famed 56% completion rate.   There certainly is some there there.  But a few things you have to keep in mind.  

 

A) This was a down-the-field sort of throwing offense which is more susceptible to producing higher incompletion rates

B)  His offensive line was very weak and he was constantly under duress. 

C) His WR's were very poor and they weren't able to get a lot of separation.

 

His intermediate and long range passing is really good, where he struggles are his short passes.  That is something that will have to be worked on and to me that is more a matter of setting his feet/mechanics and from what I've been reading it is something that he has worked on and improved, as evidenced in the Senior bowl game.  He was the best performing QB that attended this year.

 

The guy is also an anticipation thrower that can hit receivers in small windows.  He's also a very intelligent guy and hard worker and a leader or men.   Where he needs some work on the mental aspect are his progressions which of course is a very important element.  To me, this is his biggest risk into becoming a franchise QB.

 

While they both have their risks, it is a fallacy from my point of view to believe that Allen is the bigger risk considering that Rosen may have troubles leading his teammates and his injury risks.  

 

There is a reason why not only was the whisper campaign in NFL evaluator/GM circles in full effect to "stay away" from Rosen and the fact that teams in need of QB's early on decided to forgo him, not to mention that most mocks had Allen being selected over Rosen.  It's not because he doesn't have the talent, it's because of these other concerns.

 

Rosen could very well end up being the better QB, but the risks are there and they are reasonably undeniable.    Again, this is not so much an argument of who is going to be the better QB it's to address the fallacy that Allen is the bigger risk.

 

 

Nice post.  There were risks with either pick - in fact with any QB.  

 

It seems the Bills decided to bet on upside.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, suorangefan4 said:

I think Allen does have accuracy issues but put say Josh Rosen on that same Wyoming team and he'd probably have around the same completion %. 

 

We don't get a time machine to do that experiment, but I don't know what evidence there is that supports that. 

 

Rosen has impeccable passing technique and is very quick to make decisions and release the ball.  He also had a poor OL this year and his WR had a large number of drops.  There is literally a scouting film of him where the 3 first examples chosen to highlight Rosen's decision making abilities were all throws that were dead on the money - and dropped.

 

I have watched a lot of film of Allen and I see him being inaccurate sometimes for reasons I can not personally diagnose to technique (Bandit disagrees).  I also see him not making correct quick decisions.  A lot of his running around could be avoided IMO if he were faster at reading and reacting.

 

Again, that said, Allen is a Bill now and I am certainly rooting for his success!

[ToGoGo]

You can't hit a home run unless you swing for the fences. People say this stinks of EJ, but it's clear they never watched film. Allen has superstar potential at the most important position in the game. This city deserves a superstar QB. There should be more support of this pick IMO. Rosen's vibe repels me. 

[vorpma]

54 minutes ago, Shotgunner said:

OP is a reasoned, coherent argument.

 

He's not who I would have drafted either, but I don't have that "Maybin" feeling about this one. 

 

I'm pretty optimistic for a couple reasons 1. We finally can identify our problems, and are proactive in finding replacements. They are not going to settle for mediocrity (whether Allen embodies it or succeeds). 2. Beane picked his guy, and was willing to move around the board to get him. Like Allen or not, Beane put his balls on the table, swung for the fences, and got his guy.

In roughly two years Beane will either be the goat or genius! 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

54 minutes ago, Mojo44 said:

This is a well thought out post and my compliments. However, using reason and clearheaded logic will likely not have much of an impact at least for a few days for the Allen haters.

 

at the end of the day does it really matter what they think or feel, no, no it doesn't. 

 

excellent post OP

[ganesh]

I agree...Tom Brady felt snubbed by teams..but he didn't bring that to the media; instead he worked hard at his game and elevated himself.  I didn't sense the same with Rosen on his post-draft calls on the NFL Network (Both with Deion and later).  Dude...you should be happy that you were drafted in the top 10 of the NFL-Crapshoot...May be you need to win a few games and then open your mouth in a 20/20 with Diane Sawyer two years from now...you will then get sympathy

[DasNootz]

48 minutes ago, offyourocker said:

 

Also widely accepted that QBs with accuracy issues do not improve on those by the time they get to the NFL

The two aren’t mutually exclusive.  

 

Its td also widely accepted that QBs under 6’2” aren’t successful, QBs with multiple concussions are at higher risk... pick the stat that supports your opinion and roll with it.

 

Bottom line, the Bills identified their QB and made the necessary move to secure him.  That’s what we all collectively wanted.

[Magox]

19 minutes ago, ganesh said:

I agree...Tom Brady felt snubbed by teams..but he didn't bring that to the media; instead he worked hard at his game and elevated himself.  I didn't sense the same with Rosen on his post-draft calls on the NFL Network (Both with Deion and later).  Dude...you should be happy that you were drafted in the top 10 of the NFL-Crapshoot...May be you need to win a few games and then open your mouth in a 20/20 with Diane Sawyer two years from now...you will then get sympathy

 

I don't want to get too down on the kid for his reactions but this is not some sort of action of his that is in a vacuum.  There is a pattern of smugness to him and I believe that absolutely played a role in the reputation that Rosen has fairly or unfairly earned.

 

If Allen hadn't been such a polarizing prospect because of the debate on who we should have drafted he'd be a kid that the Bills fan base would love.  Hard working, blue collar and very intelligent player who is going to engulf himself to the Bills fan base.  Which is something that I have a hard time believing that Rosen would have been.  I could be wrong but that is my sense of things.

[Chuck Wagon]

Personally I question if some of the criticisms about Rosen weren't put out to intentionally steer him away from places like Cleveland and Buffalo.

 

 

If Josh Rosen really wanted to be a Buffalo Bill, I firmly believe he would have been the pick.  There are no such questions with Allen.

[Magox]

14 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

Personally I question if some of the criticisms about Rosen weren't put out to intentionally steer him away from places like Cleveland and Buffalo.

 

 

If Josh Rosen really wanted to be a Buffalo Bill, I firmly believe he would have been the pick.  There are no such questions with Allen.

 

Judging by his reaction last night, he definitely felt slighted by the teams that passed up on him.  Not only in his words but in his body language.  Again, I don't know if that means anything in regards to what kind of a football player he will become but it doesn't jive with what you are saying.  Not to mention just a few days ago he was basically saying to the teams that could draft him that if they don't like him and that if they don't believe he will be a good fit, "don't draft me".   Which goes completely at odds with what he said yesterday.  I know emotions were high and he was clearly disappointed and it's a lot of pressure to put on a young man but from my perspective it was not a good look and one of the gauges of being a good professional is knowing how to deal with adversity.

[Lurker]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

B) His injury concerns.  Will he be a Bradford sort of player?   I think that is a fair question. 

 

This has to be Beane's deal breaker on Rosen.   By all other measures, it's not a close contest.

 

But it bugs me that we always have to give up skill-for-brawn in Buffalo.   I'd like to find a QB that calmly scan the field, look off safeties, see the open receiver rather than throw into coverage--do the things that great QBs do--rather than plumbers and cast offs and failed draft picks who stumble, bumble and slide through town every 3-4 years...  

[Magox]

2 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

This has to be Beane's deal breaker on Rosen.   By all other measures, it's not a close contest.

 

But it bugs me that we always have to give up skill-for-brawn in Buffalo.   I'd like to find a QB that calmly scan the field, look off safeties, see the open receiver rather than throw into coverage--do the things that great QBs do--rather than plumbers and cast offs and failed draft picks who stumble, bumble and slide through town every 3-4 years...  

 

I hear what you are saying but you can not reasonably say "by all other measures", considering the fact that Allen has a considerably stronger arm, throws extremely well out of the pocket and on the run, can extend plays better, is a bigger and better athlete that can make decent running plays, is known to be more of a leader of men than Rosen and arguably has a better deep ball.

 

I agree that Rosen is a better natural thrower, has great pocket presence and is better at his progressions and could very well end up being a better QB, but Allen does have lots of qualities that are better than Rosen's.

[Beans Dream]

Great post and completely agree.  This kid is definitely polazing.  I really wanted the Bills to get Darnold.  But when it came down to it, all of these kids had upside and gaps.  I was not a huge fan of Rosen, when you have to say things like, ‘I’m being authentic as the theme of the draft’, you come off as being unauthentic.  Beyond that, I can see the slightness of his build and his injury / durability as a big issue. 

 

Allen is NOT EJ, other than the fact they are big, I really don’t see the comparison at all.  This kid has an arm that is special (think Favre or Elway), so the upside is tremendous.  I’m not saying he will ever be as good as those guys, but he has the potential with the right coaching and mentoring.  By all accounts he seems like a bright kid - I heard he’s very impressive at the board, and most importantly the dude was genuinely happy to be a Buffalo Bill.  

[elroy16]

6 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

This has to be Beane's deal breaker on Rosen.   By all other measures, it's not a close contest.

 

But it bugs me that we always have to give up skill-for-brawn in Buffalo.   I'd like to find a QB that calmly scan the field, look off safeties, see the open receiver rather than throw into coverage--do the things that great QBs do--rather than plumbers and cast offs and failed draft picks who stumble, bumble and slide through town every 3-4 years...  

 

I thought they were going the other way with this regime. Giving up Sammy and Darby and then the guys they drafted all being more productive players versus potential. Drafting Peterman, a guy without a huge arm, but was supposed to be more pro ready. It has me wondering if Beane and McDermott aren't quite on the exact same page. 

 

I'm 100% with you, I really wanted a more ready QB, not another project based on their upside due to a big arm. 

 

 

1 hour ago, musichunch said:

You can't hit a home run unless you swing for the fences. People say this stinks of EJ, but it's clear they never watched film. Allen has superstar potential at the most important position in the game. This city deserves a superstar QB. There should be more support of this pick IMO. Rosen's vibe repels me. 

 

 

They really swung for the fences in the first round by giving up a bunch of picks for Allen and Edmunds.

 

At the beginning of the draft, I wanted a QB and a LB that could be the center piece of the defense. If, and that's a big freaking if, both these guys pan out, they could be center piece of each side of the ball in 2 years. That's exciting to think about, even if it doesn't feel like it's going to happen. 

 

[akm0404]

19 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

This has to be Beane's deal breaker on Rosen.   By all other measures, it's not a close contest.

This is just patently untrue. 

 

You up can not argue in good faith that there are no measures in which Josh Allen is superior to Josh Rosen. You are simply lying with an agenda. Bad faith posting should be a bannable offense, imo. 

[Lurker]

16 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

I hear what you are saying but you can not reasonably say "by all other measures", considering the fact that Allen has a considerably stronger arm, throws extremely well out of the pocket and on the run, can extend plays better, is a bigger and better athlete that can make decent running plays, is known to be more of a leader of men than Rosen and arguably has a better deep ball.

 

Sure I can, since I personally value the assets that Rosen brings to the table (reading defenses, seeing the open receiver, good enough movement skills, better than average vision/anticipation/ball placement) than the characteristics you list.   

 

BTW, Rosen has a 70% completion rate on deep balls going against pro-style defenses and PAC-12 DBs, which is about 30 points more than Allen had going against the future insurance salesmen playing for Mountain West teams...    

[akm0404]

Lol and then he doubles down on the bad faith posting. Nice. 

[Lurker]

13 minutes ago, akm0404 said:

This is just patently untrue. 

 

You up can not argue in good faith that there are no measures in which Josh Allen is superior to Josh Rosen. You are simply lying with an agenda. Bad faith posting should be a bannable offense, imo. 

 

That doesn't make a bit of sense...use your words, akm0404

Edited April 27, 2018 by Lurker