The fallacy of Allen being the bigger "risk" than Rosen

[Magox]

I want to preface these series of thoughts with the fact that I was hoping for Rosen over Allen.  With that said one of the common gripes that I am hearing from some of our fans on this board is that Josh Allen is the bigger risk for this franchise than Rosen.   The argument goes something along the lines that Rosen is the best pure passer, the most NFL ready therefore he's close to a sure thing.  Whereas Allen is the big armed QB who is inaccurate similar to EJ Manuel and he's got Bust written all over him.

 

On the surface this argument makes sense.

 

However, there are huge gaping holes with this argument.

 

A) One of the big things that people talked about including lots of whispers from NFL personnel is that Rosen was not a leader of men.  Some questioned his demeanor and whether or not his heart was fully in the game.  I don't know whether or not that stuff is true or not but it was definitely out there.  I will say this, the little that I observed of him I definitely saw a smugness about him.  Does that matter?  I don't know.  But it was certainly palpable and if I saw that after a few interviews then I'm certain that this reputation was observed by many others as well.   The fact that his ex coach Mora could not give him a full-throated endorsement and even picked his in-state rival as being the QB who should be picked first to me screams of a red flag.  Sure, Mora tried backtracking some and equivocating why he said that, but the bottom line is that he didn't feel the urge to gush about the player he coached.   

 

B) His injury concerns.  Will he be a Bradford sort of player?   I think that is a fair question.  He's had a couple concussions and I believe a shoulder injury that kept him out for some time.  He's not the most mobile QB, tends to hold on to the ball too long sometimes because he's a QB that likes to try to make plays but if you are in the NFL and you don't have great protection and you hold on to the ball too long and you are prone to some injuries, it's stands to reason to believe he could be an injury prone QB in this league.   That is a risk.

 

Allen on the other hand is a big hulking QB that can not only shake off arm tackles but he's very mobile and makes amazing throws on the run.  Considering the offensive line we have, this is probably a better fit than Rosen is essentially just a pocket passer.

 

While Allen has his shortcomings primarily in the accuracy department, it is an overblown charge that people make and it is without doubt in many cases an on-the-surface observation primarily to the famed 56% completion rate.   There certainly is some there there.  But a few things you have to keep in mind.  

 

A) This was a down-the-field sort of throwing offense which is more susceptible to producing higher incompletion rates

B)  His offensive line was very weak and he was constantly under duress. 

C) His WR's were very poor and they weren't able to get a lot of separation.

 

His intermediate and long range passing is really good, where he struggles are his short passes.  That is something that will have to be worked on and to me that is more a matter of setting his feet/mechanics and from what I've been reading it is something that he has worked on and improved, as evidenced in the Senior bowl game.  He was the best performing QB that attended this year.

 

The guy is also an anticipation thrower that can hit receivers in small windows.  He's also a very intelligent guy and hard worker and a leader or men.   Where he needs some work on the mental aspect are his progressions which of course is a very important element.  To me, this is his biggest risk into becoming a franchise QB.

 

While they both have their risks, it is a fallacy from my point of view to believe that Allen is the bigger risk considering that Rosen may have troubles leading his teammates and his injury risks.  

 

There is a reason why not only was the whisper campaign in NFL evaluator/GM circles in full effect to "stay away" from Rosen and the fact that teams in need of QB's early on decided to forgo him, not to mention that most mocks had Allen being selected over Rosen.  It's not because he doesn't have the talent, it's because of these other concerns.

 

Rosen could very well end up being the better QB, but the risks are there and they are reasonably undeniable.    Again, this is not so much an argument of who is going to be the better QB it's to address the fallacy that Allen is the bigger risk.

[17 Josh Allen]

2 minutes ago, Magox said:

I want to preface these series of thoughts with the fact that I was hoping for Rosen over Allen.  With that said one of the common gripes that I am hearing from some of our fans on this board is that Josh Allen is the bigger risk for this franchise than Rosen.   The argument goes something along the lines that Rosen is the best pure passer, the most NFL ready therefore he's close to a sure thing.  Whereas Allen is the big armed QB who is inaccurate similar to EJ Manuel and he's got Bust written all over him.

 

On the surface this argument makes sense.

 

However, there are huge gaping holes with this argument.

 

A) One of the big things that people talked about including lots of whispers from NFL personnel is that Rosen was not a leader of men.  Some questioned his demeanor and whether or not his heart was fully in the game.  I don't know whether or not that stuff is true or not but it was definitely out there.  I will say this, the little that I observed of him I definitely saw a smugness about him.  Does that matter?  I don't know.  But it was certainly palpable and if I saw that after a few interviews then I'm certain that this reputation was observed by many others as well.   The fact that his ex coach Mora could not give him a full-throated endorsement and even picked his in-state rival as being the QB who should be picked first to me screams of a red flag.  Sure, Mora tried backtracking some and equivocating why he said that, but the bottom line is that he didn't feel the urge to gush about the player he coached.   

 

B) His injury concerns.  Will he be a Bradford sort of player?   I think that is a fair question.  He's had a couple concussions and I believe a shoulder injury that kept him out for some time.  He's not the most mobile QB, tends to hold on to the ball too long sometimes because he's a QB that likes to try to make plays but if you are in the NFL and you don't have great protection and you hold on to the ball too long and you are prone to some injuries, it's stands to reason to believe he could be an injury prone QB in this league.   That is a risk.

 

Allen on the other hand is a big hulking QB that can not only shake off arm tackles but he's very mobile and makes amazing throws on the run.  Considering the offensive line we have, this is probably a better fit than Rosen is essentially just a pocket passer.

 

While Allen has his shortcomings primarily in the accuracy department, it is an overblown charge that people make and it is without doubt in many cases an on-the-surface observation primarily to the famed 56% completion rate.   There certainly is some there there.  But a few things you have to keep in mind.  

 

A) This was a down-the-field sort of throwing offense which is more susceptible to producing higher incompletion rates

B)  His offensive line was very weak and he was constantly under duress. 

C) His WR's were very poor and they weren't able to get a lot of separation.

 

His intermediate and long range passing is really good, where he struggles are his short passes.  That is something that will have to be worked on and to me that is more a matter of setting his feet/mechanics and from what I've been reading it is something that he has worked on and improved, as evidenced in the Senior bowl game.  He was the best performing QB that attended this year.

 

The guy is also an anticipation thrower that can hit receivers in small windows.  He's also a very intelligent guy and hard worker and a leader or men.   Where he needs some work on the mental aspect are his progressions which of course is a very important element.  To me, this is his biggest risk into becoming a franchise QB.

 

While they both have their risks, it is a fallacy from my point of view to believe that Allen is the bigger risk considering that Rosen may have troubles leading his teammates and his injury risks.  

 

There is a reason why not only was the whisper campaign in NFL evaluator/GM circles in full effect to "stay away" from Rosen and the fact that teams in need of QB's early on decided to forgo him, not to mention that most mocks had Allen being selected over Rosen.  It's not because he doesn't have the talent, it's because of these other concerns.

 

Rosen could very well end up being the better QB, but the risks are there and they are reasonably undeniable.    Again, this is not so much an argument of who is going to be the better QB it's to address the fallacy that Allen is the bigger risk.

I love this post and thanks for taking the time to write it. 

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Just now, Thurmanator 12074 said:

I love this post and thanks for taking the time to write it. 

You gotta be over the moon today. Lol

[fridge]

Just now, Thurmanator 12074 said:

I love this post and thanks for taking the time to write it. 

 

Not a good sign when this guy ^ is on your side.

[BruceVilanch]

I'm glad someone took time to write a well thought out post, not just complaining because we didn't draft the guy that they wanted. At the end of the day you have to take a risk to get the guy that you believe will turn into a franchise QB, they took Allen over Rosen for a reason, you make some good points. Kudos to you sir.

[Magox]

3 minutes ago, fridge said:

 

Not a good sign when this guy ^ is on your side.

 

Explain to me what my "side" was.  I'd rather see that than what you posted.

[Heavy Kevi]

OP is a reasoned, coherent argument.

 

He's not who I would have drafted either, but I don't have that "Maybin" feeling about this one. 

 

I'm pretty optimistic for a couple reasons 1. We finally can identify our problems, and are proactive in finding replacements. They are not going to settle for mediocrity (whether Allen embodies it or succeeds). 2. Beane picked his guy, and was willing to move around the board to get him. Like Allen or not, Beane put his balls on the table, swung for the fences, and got his guy.

[ALLEN1QB]

Good read thanks . let's hope it works out in the end

[Mojo44]

14 minutes ago, Magox said:

I want to preface these series of thoughts with the fact that I was hoping for Rosen over Allen.  With that said one of the common gripes that I am hearing from some of our fans on this board is that Josh Allen is the bigger risk for this franchise than Rosen.   The argument goes something along the lines that Rosen is the best pure passer, the most NFL ready therefore he's close to a sure thing.  Whereas Allen is the big armed QB who is inaccurate similar to EJ Manuel and he's got Bust written all over him.

 

On the surface this argument makes sense.

 

However, there are huge gaping holes with this argument.

 

A) One of the big things that people talked about including lots of whispers from NFL personnel is that Rosen was not a leader of men.  Some questioned his demeanor and whether or not his heart was fully in the game.  I don't know whether or not that stuff is true or not but it was definitely out there.  I will say this, the little that I observed of him I definitely saw a smugness about him.  Does that matter?  I don't know.  But it was certainly palpable and if I saw that after a few interviews then I'm certain that this reputation was observed by many others as well.   The fact that his ex coach Mora could not give him a full-throated endorsement and even picked his in-state rival as being the QB who should be picked first to me screams of a red flag.  Sure, Mora tried backtracking some and equivocating why he said that, but the bottom line is that he didn't feel the urge to gush about the player he coached.   

 

B) His injury concerns.  Will he be a Bradford sort of player?   I think that is a fair question.  He's had a couple concussions and I believe a shoulder injury that kept him out for some time.  He's not the most mobile QB, tends to hold on to the ball too long sometimes because he's a QB that likes to try to make plays but if you are in the NFL and you don't have great protection and you hold on to the ball too long and you are prone to some injuries, it's stands to reason to believe he could be an injury prone QB in this league.   That is a risk.

 

Allen on the other hand is a big hulking QB that can not only shake off arm tackles but he's very mobile and makes amazing throws on the run.  Considering the offensive line we have, this is probably a better fit than Rosen is essentially just a pocket passer.

 

While Allen has his shortcomings primarily in the accuracy department, it is an overblown charge that people make and it is without doubt in many cases an on-the-surface observation primarily to the famed 56% completion rate.   There certainly is some there there.  But a few things you have to keep in mind.  

 

A) This was a down-the-field sort of throwing offense which is more susceptible to producing higher incompletion rates

B)  His offensive line was very weak and he was constantly under duress. 

C) His WR's were very poor and they weren't able to get a lot of separation.

 

His intermediate and long range passing is really good, where he struggles are his short passes.  That is something that will have to be worked on and to me that is more a matter of setting his feet/mechanics and from what I've been reading it is something that he has worked on and improved, as evidenced in the Senior bowl game.  He was the best performing QB that attended this year.

 

The guy is also an anticipation thrower that can hit receivers in small windows.  He's also a very intelligent guy and hard worker and a leader or men.   Where he needs some work on the mental aspect are his progressions which of course is a very important element.  To me, this is his biggest risk into becoming a franchise QB.

 

While they both have their risks, it is a fallacy from my point of view to believe that Allen is the bigger risk considering that Rosen may have troubles leading his teammates and his injury risks.  

 

There is a reason why not only was the whisper campaign in NFL evaluator/GM circles in full effect to "stay away" from Rosen and the fact that teams in need of QB's early on decided to forgo him, not to mention that most mocks had Allen being selected over Rosen.  It's not because he doesn't have the talent, it's because of these other concerns.

 

Rosen could very well end up being the better QB, but the risks are there and they are reasonably undeniable.    Again, this is not so much an argument of who is going to be the better QB it's to address the fallacy that Allen is the bigger risk.

This is a well thought out post and my compliments. However, using reason and clearheaded logic will likely not have much of an impact at least for a few days for the Allen haters.

[Peace Frog]

Good post, Magox.  I was thinking the same things.  There is a reason Rosen fell down the board and a reason we took Allen over him but we will have to wait to find out why.

[17 Josh Allen]

15 minutes ago, The Alpha Fire said:

You gotta be over the moon today. Lol

Not really. I had posted many times these were my preferred QB’s Allen, Mayfield, Rudolph and Jackson. But then at the end last 48 hours I came around on Rosen. So I would have been excited to have Rosen he is very good. So but yes I’m happy because I love Josh Allen and his arm and mobility. Time will tell but Bean traded up and got his guy. I support this Bills new regime. So I will trust he made the right call here. 

Edited April 27, 2018 by Thurmanator 12074

[Hapless Bills Fan]

21 minutes ago, Magox said:

I want to preface these series of thoughts with the fact that I was hoping for Rosen over Allen.  With that said one of the common gripes that I am hearing from some of our fans on this board is that Josh Allen is the bigger risk for this franchise than Rosen.   The argument goes something along the lines that Rosen is the best pure passer, the most NFL ready therefore he's close to a sure thing.  Whereas Allen is the big armed QB who is inaccurate similar to EJ Manuel and he's got Bust written all over him.

 

You got it.  The #1 thing about a QB is can he throw the football, and at game speed, can he read, process, and make the right decisions at game speed?  It is clear from film that Rosen can do this consistently.  It is clear from film that Allen can sometimes do this, in a weaker conference.

 

Quote

A) One of the big things that people talked about including lots of whispers from NFL personnel is that Rosen was not a leader of men.  Some questioned his demeanor and whether or not his heart was fully in the game.

 

This is certainly an intangible that has to be considered.  My counterpoint is that all of these guys are young men who are about to be given access to an unreal amount of money and an unreal amount of media attention, and I think it's very difficult to predict how that will change anyone.   Will Allen lose his fire for the game once he can buy his Mom and Dad a new ranch house, the latest and greatest combine, pay off all their debts?  Jake Locker did.  Will Jackson lose his motivation once his fam is financially set for life, he can buy his mom a new house etc?   Might be behind Eddie Lacy's slide and others.

 

Still, it's a fair point that the QB has to rally the team and it might be true that Rosen can't and Allen can.  Possibility granted.

 

Quote

  The fact that his ex coach Mora could not give him a full-throated endorsement and even picked his in-state rival as being the QB who should be picked first to me screams of a red flag.  Sure, Mora tried backtracking some and equivocating why he said that, but the bottom line is that he didn't feel the urge to gush about the player he coached.   

 

This, I think, goes along with something one of the former QB pundits said in an interview about Rosen - who was it?  on WGR - that a lot of QB rooms in the league have coaches who really aren't able to serve up all the "whys" and "wherefores" Rosen demands and who can't handle being questioned, and thus there will be conflict with Rosen.  I think Mora didn't want to say it in public about Hue Jackson and Todd Haley but I think that's behind what he said

 

Quote

B) His injury concerns.  Will he be a Bradford sort of player?   I think that is a fair question.  He's had a couple concussions and I believe a shoulder injury that kept him out for some time.  He's not the most mobile QB, tends to hold on to the ball too long sometimes because he's a QB that likes to try to make plays but if you are in the NFL and you don't have great protection and you hold on to the ball too long and you are prone to some injuries, it's stands to reason to believe he could be an injury prone QB in this league.   That is a risk.

 

What I don't understand about this is that Mayfield had 2 concussions in 3 games and Allen not only has had repetitive shoulder injuries (HS and a soft tissue injury that cost him a few games) but his first year at Wyoming he was sidelined with what was described as "major surgical reconstruction" of his shoulder.  But I never heard press concern about Mayfield's concussions or Allen's shoulder.

 

Quote

While Allen has his shortcomings primarily in the accuracy department, it is an overblown charge that people make and it is without doubt in many cases an on-the-surface observation primarily to the famed 56% completion rate.   There certainly is some there there.  But a few things you have to keep in mind.  

 

A) This was a down-the-field sort of throwing offense which is more susceptible to producing higher incompletion rates

B)  His offensive line was very weak and he was constantly under duress. 

C) His WR's were very poor and they weren't able to get a lot of separation.

 

All of what you say is true, but also applies to Rosen, Jackson, and others who don't play in a spread offense.  But my concerns are mostly related to what I see on tape of Allen.

 

Quote

While they both have their risks, it is a fallacy from my point of view to believe that Allen is the bigger risk considering that Rosen may have troubles leading his teammates and his injury risks.  

 

We can agree to disagree.   Allen may have a higher ceiling (smart guy, powerful arm, mobile) but at this point he 100% needs development as a QB, and may or may not ever take the steps he needs to take to get to where Rosen is as a passer and in his ability to read a defense and get the ball where it needs to go.  Teammates will follow a winner, and Allen has injury risks that aren't being discussed.

 

All that said, Allen is a Bill now and I'll be pulling for his success.

 

 

[billspro]

Dude this is just an awesome post, great job. 

 

There are a lot of positives to this pick. I was not an Allen guy in the predraft process either but I trust Beane and McDermott. 

[Buffalo_Gal]

I've seen the "grades" on Allen - from A+ at cbs sports to a D+ at sports illustrated. You either love the pick or hate the pick right now. But truthfully? Only time will tell. 

Thanks for the write-up. It is much better than the hair-on-fire nonsense I've been reading since last night on this board. 

[Mat68]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

I've seen the "grades" on Allen - from A+ at cbs sports to a D+ at sports illustrated. You either love the pick or hate the pick right now. But truthfully? Only time will tell. 

Thanks for the write-up. It is much better than the hair-on-fire nonsense I've been reading since last night on this board. 

c+ from Sports illustrated.  They seemed to hate the Nelson for the colts because they thought they should have went defense.

[Buffalo_Gal]

Just now, Mat68 said:

c+ from Sports illustrated.  They seemed to hate the Nelson for the colts because they thought they should have went defense.

Thanks... I went up, not down.

[DasNootz]

There's also the chance that Rosen has already reached his potential, while its widely accepted that Allen has considerable room to improve.

[offyourocker]

6 minutes ago, DasNootz said:

There's also the chance that Rosen has already reached his potential, while its widely accepted that Allen has considerable room to improve.

 

Also widely accepted that QBs with accuracy issues do not improve on those by the time they get to the NFL

[bigK14094]

Rosen would have been fine....I am leary of the Allen pick.....I think Beane etc saw Allen in the Cam Newton mode ...that is big, tall gun of an arm.  I am worried about the lack of accuracy reported in the media and statistically ........another EJ Manuel we don't need.  EJ had plenty of arm strength, he just could not hit the receivers downfield.(and, of course, the lack of field presence)  If that is what we got, we will be regretting this pick for a decade.  JP was another problem...he had an arm, but not a head for the game.....oh well , another swing at the plate...hoping for the best for the Bills.

[FeelingOnYouboty]

Josh Allen has 5 screws in his clavicle and has broken it twice. He's also missed time for a shoulder injury so I don't know how Rosen gets the durability concern but Allen doesn't.