2018 NFL Draft - Day 1 Debrief

[billsfan1959]

3 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:

There are plenty of busts over the years picked in the top 10 of the draft. I'm just saying I think we have another. He's done nothing in college to show that he's going to have success at this level. Nothing.

Well, you are certainly entitled to your opinion. However, IMHO, if he had literally done nothing in college to indicate success at the NFL level, he would have never even been in the national discussion of top QBs in this draft. Yet, the consensus opinion of the people who do this for a living is that he was not only a first-round talent, but a top 10 talent. He may very well end up being a bust; however, to declare him one at this point is ridiculous - and to say he literally showed nothing in college to indicate success at the NFL level is beyond absurd.

[billspro]

I was pretty upset about the pick at first. Especially since the Jets got Darnold. 

 

I rewatched Allens Senior bowl this morning and it did give me some hope. 

 

Positives on Allen:

1) Competitive and tough

2) Insane arm strength

3) Very good athlete for his size

4) Good accuracy on 1st read

5) Played in a pro-style offence

6) Is able to throw with touch at times

 

Things he needs to work on if he wants to be our franchise QB:

1) Understanding the blitz and hot reads

2) throwing with more touch on short throws

3) maintaining good footwork on second and third reads for more consistent accuracy

4) hanging in the pocket longer to buy time for the WRs

 

If he can improve those four things we will have a special QB.

[Green Lightning]

26 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

Well, you are certainly entitled to your opinion. However, IMHO, if he had literally done nothing in college to indicate success at the NFL level, he would have never even been in the national discussion of top QBs in this draft. Yet, the consensus opinion of the people who do this for a living is that he was not only a first-round talent, but a top 10 talent. He may very well end up being a bust; however, to declare him one at this point is ridiculous - and to say he literally showed nothing in college to indicate success at the NFL level is beyond absurd.

The people who do this for a living also pick Maybin over Orakpo. Also picked Wittner over Ngata. They also picked EJ Manuel. And now they just picked the guy who is woefully 

inaccurate, has trouble reading defenses, who critics say has to learn to play quarterback in the NFL, and when he's blitzed his quarterback rating reduces by half. So yeah I'm not on board.

[billsfan1959]

1 minute ago, Green Lightning said:

The people who do this for a living also pick Maybin over Orakpo. Also picked Wittner over Ngata. They also picked EJ Manuel. And now they just picked the guy who is woefully 

inaccurate, has trouble reading defenses, who critics say has to learn to play quarterback in the NFL, and when he's blitzed his quarterback rating reduces by half. So yeah I'm not on board.

1

Actually, the people who picked Allen did not pick Maybin over Orakpo, or Wittner over Ngata, or EJ Manuel. Do you even follow your own team?

Also, you want to dismiss the expertise of people who do this for a living when it comes to picking someone you don't like, yet rely on the expertise of people who do this for a living to quote them in the negative aspects about Allen. Make up your mind.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, PearlHowardman said:

Re:  Josh Allen Wyoming QB first round pick.  There was no other choice for the Buffalo Bills to make.  None.  Did the Buffalo Bills pay too much for Allen regarding trades?  Perhaps.

 

Why even post something like this?  There were other choices for the Buffalo Bills to make, including a top QB.  There are folks here who are posting rational arguments for why they believe Allen is a better or lower risk selection,  but to frame it as "no other choice" is just wrong.

1 minute ago, billsfan1959 said:

Actually, the people who picked Allen did not pick Maybin over Orakpo, or Wittner over Ngata, or EJ Manuel. Do you even follow your own team?

Also, you want to dismiss the expertise of people who do this for a living when it comes to picking someone you don't like, yet rely on the expertise of people who do this for a living to quote them in the negative aspects about Allen. Make up your mind.

 

I think you're being a bit more literal than the poster you're responding to intended.  I think he's referring generally to "professional scouts and FO personnel"

[YoloinOhio]

1 hour ago, PearlHowardman said:

 

Josh Rosen is moving from sunny and warm LA to sunny and hot Phoenix.  Guarantee:  Rosen is right now breathing a HUGE sigh of relief knowing that he's not moving to snowy, cold, windy Buffalo, New York.

 

Come on people, wake up. 

I wish both Joshes the best with their respective teams. Looks like good fits for both.

[billsfan1959]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Why even post something like this?  There were other choices for the Buffalo Bills to make, including a top QB.  There are folks here who are posting rational arguments for why they believe Allen is a better or lower risk selection,  but to frame it as "no other choice" is just wrong.

 

I think you're being a bit more literal than the poster you're responding to intended.  I think he's referring generally to "professional scouts and FO personnel"

 

That may be so. However, to cherry pick a few bad selections by former front office personnel to indict the current regime and an entire profession regarding a process that is, at best, an inexact science, is. IMHO, intellectually lazy.

Edited April 27, 2018 by billsfan1959

[Chuck Wagon]

It's unfortunate the Allen pick is colored with views of Watson / Mahomes / Rosen.  It's reality, but also unfortunate.

 

The reality is, none of us really know.  Allen could hit, be a future MVP, a big guy with a big arm who can keep plays alive and make throws downfield.  Rosen could see the injury toll Sam Bradford has taken first hand, catch a really good shot behind a porous line in Arizona and say "I don't need this".  Had the Giants taken Darnold, the Jets Rosen and we made the exact same move, I think the reaction would have a very different tone.

[Green Lightning]

11 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

Actually, the people who picked Allen did not pick Maybin over Orakpo, or Wittner over Ngata, or EJ Manuel. Do you even follow your own team?

Also, you want to dismiss the expertise of people who do this for a living when it comes to picking someone you don't like, yet rely on the expertise of people who do this for a living to quote them in the negative aspects about Allen. Make up your mind.

Think a little bigger than that my friend. They weren't the same people but they were paid experts who do it for a living. That was the point. So come on. 

[4thandGoal]

9 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

Actually, the people who picked Allen did not pick Maybin over Orakpo, or Wittner over Ngata, or EJ Manuel. Do you even follow your own team?

Also, you want to dismiss the expertise of people who do this for a living when it comes to picking someone you don't like, yet rely on the expertise of people who do this for a living to quote them in the negative aspects about Allen. Make up your mind.

Backing you on this one...  when ever a guy is disliked by someone --they will site sources of others who also is negative on that player and ignore sources who are positive. I am in the middle and give him a chance. 

[billsfan1959]

1 minute ago, Green Lightning said:

Think a little bigger than that my friend. They weren't the same people but they were paid experts who do it for a living. That was the point. So come on. 

Read my post above, my friend.

[ganesh]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Well obviously I don't agree with that. I think they passed on the guy that will be the best Quarterback from this class. 

The same was said when we passed on Matt Leinart...A polished QB coming from USC under the belt of Pete Carroll and the multiple championship....and yet Mat was out of the league in a few years.  We never know what they bring to the table in the NFL.  There is no such thing as "sure" in the NFL Draft.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Actually one of the few positives I am taking is that missing on a 1st round QB, if that is in fact what they have done, does not set you back 5 years anymore. Say Allen gets in halfway through 2018.  I suspect they have a decision on him by the end of 2020 and 2021 as the 4th year of his contract the cap hit doesn't stop you getting out, cutting bait and starting again.  Under this CBA missing on a 1st round QB is a 3 year process not a 5 year one. 

 

Obviously a lot of people think they haven't missed and Allen will be good and that remains to be seen. 

 

 

Yeah they are aligned to be in on this incoming class of freshman QB's.........which is quite promising.........should Allen flame out.     McD and Beane might not be making that decision though.    They are, however, aided by the fact that Terry and Kim are pretty enamored with Allen too.    (Not that TP signing off on moves saved Rex)

 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, ganesh said:

The same was said when we passed on Matt Leinart...A polished QB coming from USC under the belt of Pete Carroll and the multiple championship....and yet Mat was out of the league in a few years.  We never know what they bring to the table in the NFL.  There is no such thing as "sure" in the NFL Draft.

 

Well I didn't really watch college football then so I can't tell you what I thought of Leinart. I don't care really what others have thought or said before. I think each situation has to be judged on the merits of the individual players and your evaluations on them in their draft class. I stand by my evaluations and I will be the first to hold my hands up if I am wrong. 

[Green Lightning]

9 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

Read my post above, my friend.

Yeah? I did and responded. Look, let's follow this team since 1963. I've seen this team bungle quarterback decisions for decades and decades. I thought this crew was going to be better and I'm highly disappointed in what they did last night. To me it feels like EJ all over again. They even use the same language to describe Allen as they did EJ back then -- even though it wasn't the same people. It's still the same rhetoric. I've watched this movie before. We burned a bunch of pics on a guy who's a long-term project. Sorry I'm utterly disappointed. There's not one review I've read of Allen, positive or negative, that even says he has a shot at being a starting quarterback in the near future. Most say he's got to learn the position. I was never more excited for a draft than I was for this one. I thought we had a front office under Brandon Beane, that was going to really put us on the right track for the first time in decades. I got to believe it was the owner who pulled the trigger on this.

[billsfan1959]

14 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:

Yeah? I did and responded. Look, let's follow this team since 1963. I've seen this team bungle quarterback decisions for decades and decades. I thought this crew was going to be better and I'm highly disappointed in what they did last night. To me it feels like EJ all over again. They even use the same language to describe Allen as they did EJ back then -- even though it wasn't the same people. It's still the same rhetoric. I've watched this movie before. We burned a bunch of pics on a guy who's a long-term project. Sorry I'm utterly disappointed. There's not one review I've read of Allen, positive or negative, that even says he has a shot at being a starting quarterback in the near future. Most say he's got to learn the position. I was never more excited for a draft than I was for this one. I thought we had a front office under Brandon Beane, that was going to really put us on the right track for the first time in decades. I got to believe it was the owner who pulled the trigger on this.

You are entitled to your opinion and certainly, are entitled to be disappointed. However, EVERY FO has "bungled" draft selections. And for every bad decision made, I could probably show you 2-3 good decisions made by the same FO. None of it has any bearing on whether or not Allen becomes a franchise QB. There are too many variables to consider. It is not just the Bills who have missed on QB selections.

 

Since 1997, there have been 56 quarterbacks taken in the first round, less than 35% have won a playoff game and less than 35% have career winning records.

 

In that same span, there were 33 QBs taken in the top 10. Excluding the four that have been in the league less than three years:
44% (13) have career winning records
44% (13) have won at least one playoff game
37& (11) have one more than one playoff game
20% (6) have won more than three playoff games
10% (3) have won more than 5 playoff games
17% (5) started at least one super bowl
6% (2) have won at least one super bowl

 

That is the reality of drafting QBs. NOBODY knows which ones will be good and which ones will be bad. Only time will tell. There will be plenty of time to attribute blame and hold people accountable if he doesn't succeed. Until then, let's just hope he is one of the good ones.

Edited April 27, 2018 by billsfan1959

[Kwai San]

I sincerely hope that you guys who are TRASHING Allen have the stones to come back here and eat your crow IF he turns out to be a baller.  I will guarantee you will be here if he isn't the second coming of football Jesus but for crying out loud at the very least give him a chance.  This Pegula conspiracy theory is dead in the water as far as I am concerned.  Pegs is all in on trusting the process - he isn't a football X's and O's guy, I choose to believe he learned his lesson with the Sabres about sticking his nose where it doesn't belong.

 

Hey if I am wrong I will be the first to admit it, but I am going to at the very least give the FO and Beane a break on this because I believe they did their homework on this.  Pretty boy Rosen will flop, yeah I said it - as SURE as you are that Allen is gonna flop well that's my opinion on Rosen.  And lets be honest - really the only decision was one or the other.  Jackson is not even on my radar.....

 

Go Bills

[NickelCity]

2 hours ago, Chuck Wagon said:

It's unfortunate the Allen pick is colored with views of Watson / Mahomes / Rosen.  It's reality, but also unfortunate.

 

The reality is, none of us really know.  Allen could hit, be a future MVP, a big guy with a big arm who can keep plays alive and make throws downfield.  Rosen could see the injury toll Sam Bradford has taken first hand, catch a really good shot behind a porous line in Arizona and say "I don't need this".  Had the Giants taken Darnold, the Jets Rosen and we made the exact same move, I think the reaction would have a very different tone.

 

This is very true. My own reaction would have been quite different, honestly. 

[GunnerBill]

17 hours ago, Kwai San said:

I sincerely hope that you guys who are TRASHING Allen have the stones to come back here and eat your crow IF he turns out to be a baller.  I will guarantee you will be here if he isn't the second coming of football Jesus but for crying out loud at the very least give him a chance.  This Pegula conspiracy theory is dead in the water as far as I am concerned.  Pegs is all in on trusting the process - he isn't a football X's and O's guy, I choose to believe he learned his lesson with the Sabres about sticking his nose where it doesn't belong.

 

Hey if I am wrong I will be the first to admit it, but I am going to at the very least give the FO and Beane a break on this because I believe they did their homework on this.  Pretty boy Rosen will flop, yeah I said it - as SURE as you are that Allen is gonna flop well that's my opinion on Rosen.  And lets be honest - really the only decision was one or the other.  Jackson is not even on my radar.....

 

Go Bills

 

If Rosen is bad and Allen is good I will 100% be here to eat my crow.  I wouldn't go ordering any in yet though.... can be hard to shift re-sale. 

[GunnerBill]

Oh and my mock had two exact matches for round one that happened on day 2. 

 

Landry & Titans in round 2

Rudolph & Steelers in round 3