2018 NFL Draft - Day 1 Debrief

[GunnerBill]

Welcome back to the ever popular GunnerBill draft debriefs for 2018. It is true to say that I still feel rather deflated this morning and have not yet been able to kick into positive mode, so apologies if anyone finds this a bit negative for their tastes. Here is my breakdown of a dramatic night from Dallas:

 

The Bills First Pick

As last year when I was discussing the Tre White selection I think you have to split the trade from the pick. I thought the strategy that the front office executed was excellent - I really do.  They obviously had a really good feel for the guys who were going to be going above them, were desperate to keep the #22 because they felt securing an impact linebacker was very important and waited until the first point that they could make their move without giving that pick up then executed it. I really, strongly disagree with their evaluation and frankly I am sick already of being told "those guys get paid for it and they picked him so you should change your view." What absolute hogwash. Look, they had to take a shot on a Quarterback, we all know that... but there was a guy still there who I really believe is going to be really good. A year ago I took heat in this thread for saying I thought we had passed on a guy who was going to be really good at #10 (Deshaun Watson) I feel likewise about Josh Rosen. I do not feel that way about Josh Allen. Does he have a chance to make it? Yes, but I'd put the odds reasonably low. He has my support as everyone who pulls the jersey on does and I sincerely hope the Bills allow him to sit and then when they do get him on the field give him a fair crack at it. I would love to be here in 5 years time with Allen having a huge new contract and me having "I did not believe in Josh Allen" on my signature. I don't think it will happen, but I genuinely hope it does.   

 

The Bills Second Pick

Love it. Tremaine Edmunds was the #8 player on my board he is obviously at a huge position of need and the Bills were in a situation to get him by swapping #22 for #16 and a 3rd for a 5th? That feels like a deal you do every time to me. I think he is going to be an absolute monster in this defense. If Allen was a pick that is unlikely even if he is good to pay dividends in 2018 then this is a day 1 impact player... and the kid is only 19. The ceiling is sky high. Interestingly every GM has a style and when you look at the combination of the two picks I think we got an insight into Beane's likely MO. Sean McDermott running the draft last year was all about 4 year starters, seniors, solid guys with a weight of production behind them. This is a different look. This is measurables, physical potential and sky high upside with the two guys we took last night. When it comes to Edmunds I think that approach is going to serve the Bills well. He might be that rare sort of inside linebacker that you are willing to give a big second contract too. He isn't stylistically similar to Luke Keuchley but his potential level is similar.

 

My Mock

Another near but yet so far night for my mock draft. just as last year there were a couple of matches I had in v1.0 that I changed out in the final version (James to the Chargers and Ward to the Browns). Final score:

 

- 24 out of the 32 players who went in the first called correctly (Right between the 26 I called in 2017 and the 23 I called in 2016).

- only 2 exact matches - Saquon Barkley which a blind rabbit could have predicted and Leighton Vander Esch (same score as 2017, nowhere near my from 5 in 2016).

- I hit the post a massive 8 times last night (matches where I got the position right but the player wrong) in part due to getting the right QB teams and stacking the QBs in the wrong order (Up from 6 in 2017 and 5 in 2016).

- plus two exact matches in the round 1 mock that happened in subsequet rounds.

 

Player I was high on....

I don't know that there was anyone that I was massively high on that came out of the blue... the two first round grades I had that I thought were touch and go to be there are still there - Connor Williams and Orlando Brown. The one player that I saw quite a few people dropping down to the bottom of the first round as the process went on was Marcus Davenport and I was adament he was going to go high. Yep, he is a project, yep he is raw, no I don't understand giving up a future 1st for him.... but he is super talented and I can totally understand him coming off the board at #14.... which is exactly where I mocked him.  Just to the wrong team. D'oh.

 

Player I was down on....

The consensus first round player I have said all the way through the process has no place there is Joshua Jackson the corner from Iowa. I think the kid is a solid prospect who can have a decent career but he doesn't have the special high level qualities that make me say number 1 corner.  I'm not surprised he is still on the board. He belongs in the second round and I do actually think the closer we got to draft night the more others started to see that too. 

 

Biggest shock of the night

The Saints trade up. When you see a team come up and give up their 2019 1st you immediately think "this is a Quarterback". To give all that up for a defensive end? Yea... Davenport is uber talented but he better be the second coming of Von Miller now!

 

Worst pick

So can anyone answer this for me.... was Terrell Edmunds actually invited to the draft? Or was he only in the green room because he was there with his brother? I mean pretty cool for him to get the stage walk if it was the latter (which I think it was) but what in the world were the Steelers thinking? I had him as a 4th rounder on my board he takes consistently bad angles and bites on play fakes. He is a hitter with good size but that is about it. Shout out to the Raiders for picking combine star Kolton Miller too. He looks good against pads in shorts. Wait until he is blocking Von Miller and Justin Houston..... it will be brutal.   

 

What's left?

I have three first round grades left and to be honest they were the 3 I probably expected might still be sat there.  Connor Williams is a little of a surprise because I still think his 2016 tape is outstanding and he was as high as 10th on my board but I accept he struggled through injuries and was not as good in 2017. Orlando Brown dropped because of a really poor "draft season" being overweight at the combine etc and he is not even a lock to go in the 2nd but I still love his tape and obviously poor old Maurice Hurst's medical issue impacted his stock too.  So, my top 10 BPAs are below (not that I expect any of them to get to the Bills pick!)

 

1. Connor Williams - OT

2. Maurice Hurst - DT

3. Orlando Brown - OT

4. Harold Landry - DE

5. Will Hernandez - G

6. Mason Rudolph - QB

7. Courtland Sutton - WR

8. James Daniels - C

9. Arden Key - DE

10. Derrius Guice - RB

 

 

 ENJOY DAY 2 - even if it promises to be a long wait for any Bills action!

Edited April 28, 2018 by GunnerBill

[PearlHowardman]

Re:  Josh Allen Wyoming QB first round pick.  There was no other choice for the Buffalo Bills to make.  None.  Did the Buffalo Bills pay too much for Allen regarding trades?  Perhaps.

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, PearlHowardman said:

Re:  Josh Allen Wyoming QB first round pick.  There was no other choice for the Buffalo Bills to make.  None.  Did the Buffalo Bills pay too much for Allen regarding trades?  Perhaps.

 

Well obviously I don't agree with that. I think they passed on the guy that will be the best Quarterback from this class. 

Edited April 27, 2018 by GunnerBill

[Green Lightning]

2 minutes ago, PearlHowardman said:

Re:  Josh Allen Wyoming QB first round pick.  There was no other choice for the Buffalo Bills to make.  None.  Did the Buffalo Bills pay too much for Allen regarding trades?  Perhaps.

 

Ridiculous. This was the last choice they should have made. You could have stayed at 12 and picked this loser and we still would have a second-round to look forward to. Any other quarterback in this draft would have been my choice other than this guy. Total project, inaccurate, can't read a defense, what the hell!

.

We burned 5 premium picks last night and on opening day we  will have one linebacker to show for it.  Beane set this franchise back 5 years last night.

[PearlHowardman]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Well obviously I don't agree with that. I think they passed on the guy that will be the best Quarterback from this class. 

 

Who? 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, PearlHowardman said:

 

Who? 

 

Josh Rosen, obviously.

[VADC Bills]

Of course the Bills paid to much especially when the 3-4 picks prior to taking Allen did not need a quarterback. A very wasteful 1st round. Never did we go into a draft with so much ammo and come out with so little. Don't want to hear anyone talk about Whaley and Sammy Watkins again. A very expensive 1st round and it didn't have to be. I felt this was a chance for Beane to show his stuff because we needed the picks to fill so many holes. A blown opportunity.

Edited April 27, 2018 by VADC Bills

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Green Lightning said:

Beane set this franchise back 5 years last night.

 

Actually one of the few positives I am taking is that missing on a 1st round QB, if that is in fact what they have done, does not set you back 5 years anymore. Say Allen gets in halfway through 2018.  I suspect they have a decision on him by the end of 2020 and 2021 as the 4th year of his contract the cap hit doesn't stop you getting out, cutting bait and starting again.  Under this CBA missing on a 1st round QB is a 3 year process not a 5 year one. 

 

Obviously a lot of people think they haven't missed and Allen will be good and that remains to be seen. 

[greeneblitz]

2 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:

 

Ridiculous. This was the last choice they should have made. You could have stayed at 12 and picked this loser and we still would have a second-round to look forward to. Any other quarterback in this draft would have been my choice other than this guy. Total project, inaccurate, can't read a defense, what the hell!

.

We burned 5 premium picks last night and on opening day we  will have one linebacker to show for it.  Beane set this franchise back 5 years last night.

"loser", can't believe how low some of you guys are, you really need to come back to reality.

[PearlHowardman]

19 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Josh Rosen, obviously.

 

Manhattan Beach, CA born/UCLA QB Josh Rosen would never succeed in cold, windy, snowy, NFL/NHL loser franchises Buffalo, New York.  He would develop crippling depression.  Josh Allen was the only choice for the Buffalo Bills.

Edited April 27, 2018 by PearlHowardman

[Green Lightning]

5 minutes ago, greeneblitz said:

"loser", can't believe how low some of you guys are, you really need to come back to reality.

Why? He wasn't good in college. He couldn't dominate the pathetic conference he played in. He has nothing in his career to show us that he's going to be any good. What the Hell were they thinking?

[PearlHowardman]

10 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:

 What the Hell were they thinking?

 

That they really had no other alternative.

[Green Lightning]

2 minutes ago, PearlHowardman said:

 

That they really had no other alternative.

By this you mean Pegula ordered them to do it?

[thurst44]

18 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:

 

Ridiculous. This was the last choice they should have made. You could have stayed at 12 and picked this loser and we still would have a second-round to look forward to. Any other quarterback in this draft would have been my choice other than this guy. Total project, inaccurate, can't read a defense, what the hell!

.

We burned 5 premium picks last night and on opening day we  will have one linebacker to show for it.  Beane set this franchise back 5 years last night.

First off, when we "burned off" 5 picks, when we got likely the best linebacker in the draft, not just "a linebacker." Second, no, they did not set the franchise "back 5 years" (and to me that's one of the few saving graces). They have eight picks left and nine next year (and maybe some comp picks), so they still have the regular 3 picks in the first 3 rounds. If Allen is a bust (as both of us suspect), he might simply never play and we'll try again. If Rosen and/or Jackson play well, yes, they blew it, and they missed the chance to not have to worry about QB for a decade or more, but that whole "set back 5 years" is just not true.

[PearlHowardman]

8 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:

By this you mean Pegula ordered them to do it?

 

Josh Rosen is moving from sunny and warm LA to sunny and hot Phoenix.  Guarantee:  Rosen is right now breathing a HUGE sigh of relief knowing that he's not moving to snowy, cold, windy Buffalo, New York.

 

Come on people, wake up. 

[billsfan1959]

32 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:

 

Ridiculous. This was the last choice they should have made. You could have stayed at 12 and picked this loser and we still would have a second-round to look forward to. Any other quarterback in this draft would have been my choice other than this guy. Total project, inaccurate, can't read a defense, what the hell!

.

We burned 5 premium picks last night and on opening day we  will have one linebacker to show for it.  Beane set this franchise back 5 years last night.

 

21 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:

Why? He wasn't good in college. He couldn't dominate the pathetic conference he played in. He has nothing in his career to show us that he's going to be any good. What the Hell were they thinking?

And somehow he managed to be drafted in the top 10 in the NFL draft. Oh, to be such a loser....

[TOboy]

Hernandez, Sutton, and Daniels...

 

 

I suspect all 3 to be taken early in the 2nd, and don't expect us to move back up, but man I'd love to get any of those 3...

[CommonCents]

Boston radio killing Rosen for his interview after being drafted, saying then Cardinals probably already regret pick. They are happy for the Bills with Allen, surprised he didn’t end up with Jets. 

 

How’s the reaction in Blo

[PearlHowardman]

4 minutes ago, Commonsense said:

Boston radio killing Rosen for his interview after being drafted, saying then Cardinals probably already regret pick. They are happy for the Bills with Allen, surprised he didn’t end up with Jets. 

 

So Boston is happy with Allen in Buffalo?  That's not good.  

[Green Lightning]

36 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

And somehow he managed to be drafted in the top 10 in the NFL draft. Oh, to be such a loser....

There are plenty of busts over the years picked in the top 10 of the draft. I'm just saying I think we have another. He's done nothing in college to show that he's going to have success at this level. Nothing.