greeneblitz Posted April 27, 2018 Posted April 27, 2018 (edited) The more fans learn about Allen and the less they look at his college stat line they are gonna fall in love with him, can't wait to see him in camp and on the field. Heres a Link to the actual even that they discuss Edited April 27, 2018 by greeneblitz 4 2
billsfan1959 Posted April 27, 2018 Posted April 27, 2018 Hopefully, he turns out to be everything we want him to be. I am looking forward to finding out. Thanks for the link. 2
Bob Chandler's Hands Posted April 27, 2018 Posted April 27, 2018 (edited) I think I understand Dilfer's point differentiating "accuracy" vs. completion percentage but he doesn't articulate it very well. Edited April 27, 2018 by Bob Chandler's Hands
Bills365 Posted April 27, 2018 Posted April 27, 2018 Thanks for the share!! I have to admit i was hoping we would sit back a couple more picks and get up for Rosen before miami but after really looking into Allen and watching his pro day and videos like this. I am excited to see how this pans out. Then to get Edmunds on top of it all was just crazy. If these two hit this could be the biggest bills draft i can ever remember. 1
YoloinOhio Posted April 27, 2018 Posted April 27, 2018 On his conf call last night he was asked what fans should think if they look up his stats. He said “don’t do it”! He was very accountable and didn’t blame anyone or lack of weapons or lack of screen passes. He said it has to get better and it will. 3
Lurker Posted April 27, 2018 Posted April 27, 2018 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Bob Chandler's Hands said: I think I understand Dilfer's point of differentiating and "accuracy" vs. completion percentage but he doesn't articulate it very well. Agreed. I was enjoying it as well until that point. Since accuracy is not measured, you can't just say it trumps completion percentage. How do you verify that statement without data? Yes, it intuitively makes sense, but show me how accurate Allen is vs other QBs. You can't, since no one collects the data. Completion percentage , while a dirty / inexact measure, does get measured and is historically correlated with better success... Edited April 27, 2018 by Lurker 1 1
greeneblitz Posted April 27, 2018 Author Posted April 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chandler's Hands said: I think I understand Dilfer's point differentiating "accuracy" vs. completion percentage but he doesn't articulate it very well. Many if not most of his throws were not from a clean pocket, he's often throwing on the move, his receivers did not often get separation and his playstyle and the offense he was in was very aggressive. It's not an "excuse" it just doesn't show up in stats.
Charlottebillsfan2 Posted April 27, 2018 Posted April 27, 2018 Thanks for posting! I think his upside is unreal 1
greeneblitz Posted April 27, 2018 Author Posted April 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, Lurker said: Agreed. I was enjoying it as well until that point. Since accuracy is not measured, you can't just say it trumps completion percentage. How do you verify that statement without data? Yes, it intuitively makes sence, but show me how accurate Allen is vs outher QBs. You can't, since no one collects the data. Completion percentage , while a dirty / inacact measure, does get measured and is historically correlated with better success... Watching tape, real tape, where you know the play that was called, can see the receiver and watch if Allen can get the ball where he wants it to go. Thats what the pros do and thats why many today are saying trust the actual NFL scouts and not the armatures.
billsbackto81 Posted April 27, 2018 Posted April 27, 2018 Dilfer really likes this kid. Here's another good vid https://saturdayblitz.com/2018/04/26/nfl-draft-2018-buffalo-bills-select-josh-allen/
Lurker Posted April 27, 2018 Posted April 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, greeneblitz said: Watching tape, real tape, where you know the play that was called, can see the receiver and watch if Allen can get the ball where he wants it to go. Thats what the pros do and thats why many today are saying trust the actual NFL scouts and not the armatures. https://www.google.com/search?q=armatures&rlz=1CAACAG_enUS598US598&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwixztiYtdraAhWxtVkKHTDOAdgQ_AUICygC&biw=1242&bih=536 Which one is Allen throwing to?
mannc Posted April 27, 2018 Posted April 27, 2018 28 minutes ago, greeneblitz said: The more fans learn about Allen and the less they look at his college stat line they are gonna fall in love with him, can't wait to see him in camp and on the field. Heres a Link to the actual even that they discuss Great stuff. Thanks for posting
greeneblitz Posted April 27, 2018 Author Posted April 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, Lurker said: https://www.google.com/search?q=armatures&rlz=1CAACAG_enUS598US598&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwixztiYtdraAhWxtVkKHTDOAdgQ_AUICygC&biw=1242&bih=536 Which one is Allen throwing to? ha ha, yeah, missed I that
Cash Posted April 27, 2018 Posted April 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, Lurker said: Agreed. I was enjoying it as well until that point. Since accuracy is not measured, you can't just say it trumps completion percentage. How do you verify that statement without data? Yes, it intuitively makes sence, but show me how accurate Allen is vs outher QBs. You can't, since no one collects the data. Completion percentage , while a dirty / inacact measure, does get measured and is historically correlated with better success... One thing some fans, analysts, and even coaches seem to struggle with is that there's a long way between "100% predictive" and "completely meaningless". Yeah, if completion % in college was a sure predictor of NFL success, Colt McCoy would be a star. But that doesn't mean that bad stats can be completely dismissed. Successful NFL QBs tend to have better college stats than bust QBs. For me, it's not just the poor completion %, it's that in combination with the very lackluster yardage totals and just okay TD:INT ratio. Even his stats from 2016 aren't impressive for a top 10 pick. Factor in the level of competition, and it's a big concern. These are legit red flags that can't just be hand-waved away with "stats are for losers". That all doesn't guarantee that Allen will suck. He could be one of the rare cases whose stats get better in the pros. There are arguments out there for why, and I hope they're right.
Canadian Bills Fan Posted April 27, 2018 Posted April 27, 2018 Thanks for posting those vids Greene!!
Cash Posted April 27, 2018 Posted April 27, 2018 12 minutes ago, greeneblitz said: Many if not most of his throws were not from a clean pocket, he's often throwing on the move, his receivers did not often get separation and his playstyle and the offense he was in was very aggressive. It's not an "excuse" it just doesn't show up in stats. I hear ya. But which of those do you think will be better with the Bills, at least in the short term? We can't pass block, our receivers can't separate - not even our one good receiver.
Woodman19 Posted April 27, 2018 Posted April 27, 2018 13 minutes ago, Charlottebillsfan2 said: Thanks for posting! I think his upside is unreal He has Stafford upside, I would be thrilled with that.
Rosen-not-Chosen Posted April 27, 2018 Posted April 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Woodman19 said: He has Stafford upside, I would be thrilled with that. What has Stafford won?
billsfan1959 Posted April 27, 2018 Posted April 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Cash said: I hear ya. But which of those do you think will be better with the Bills, at least in the short term? We can't pass block, our receivers can't separate - not even our one good receiver. If he is the real deal, then they will build around him and provide him with what he needs to be successful.
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