What I Don't Understand About Fan Reaction to Allen

[dave mcbride]

3 hours ago, Mike in Syracuse said:

Accuracy issues in college are a tricky statistic.   The final measurable is the result of numerous variables.    Wrong reads, wrong routes etc.   Bottom line is, everything can go right and the WR can still drop the ball.   It's entirely possible that Allen isn't the most accurate passer in the draft.   It's also entirely possible that the rest of the players around him are downright awful.

As to your point, watch what Dilfer says about this: 

 

 

56 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

 

not trying to fan any flames here, and I’m willing to give the kid a shot...  but the EJ comparison is valid, because: 

 

(1) Nix said almost verbatim about EJ what Beane said about Allen “all the prospects had issues, and we think his are easiest to fix”  EJs issue was inaccuracy and that regime thought they could fix that. This is the identical, except the short game touch pass accuracy is significantly worse with Allen at this point in their careers. 

 

Further more: 

 

(1) the inaccuracy belief is based on analysis of his play, not his stats from all those weighing in- they just reference completion as a top line stat to explain- But there is significant correlation with few outliers that college completion % will exceed NFL completion %?

 

(2) innacuraurate QBs have consistently been coaching and GM career killers.  

 

So now we are betting on Allen being a statistical anomaly, and a front office with the audacity to belive they can fix what many experts say can’t be fixed. 

 

I get where folks are disappointed 

 

This isn't really true at all. He was actually quite accurate in college (68.0% in his senior year; 66.9% overall). The knock was that he was a slow processor and only used one side of the field. Moreover, he was hard to assess because he played on a team absolutely loaded with future NFL players, and someone was ALWAYS open. 

[Lurker]

Just now, dave mcbride said:

As to your point, watch what Dilfer says about this: 

 

 

 

I have...and Dilfer is very inarticulate about what "accuracy" is.   

 

How do we measure it?  How do we compare players on it?   He can't tell you, other that to say "I think it's important."

 

Well, who doesn't?   But how do you evaluate one player vs. another on a metric / stat that doesn't exist, Trent?   

[dave mcbride]

Just now, Lurker said:

 

I have...and Dilfer is very inarticulate about what "accuracy" is.   

 

How do we measure it?  How do we compare players on it?   He can't tell you, other that to say "I think it's important."

 

Well, who doesn't?   But how do you evaluate one player vs. another on a metric / stat that doesn't exist, Trent?   

I thought he was clear in that he said it's about throwing to a spot. Sometimes the receiver doesn't get there because he sucks or runs the wrong route; sometimes he drops it; sometimes he's well covered because he's not strong/fast enough. 

[Buffalo ill]

I've reached the conclusion that the playoff drought turned the fanbase into a group of miserable cunts.  People were bitching about making the playoffs last year ffs.  No matter who was picked in the draft, people were destined to come here and complain.  Also, "fans" here would rather be right in their harsh judgements, than be wrong, even if it means the team benefits.  They have a lot energy invested in their negative emotions.  Can't let that go to waste.

[Lurker]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

I thought he was clear in that he said it's about throwing to a spot. Sometimes the receiver doesn't get there because he sucks or runs the wrong route; sometimes he drops it; sometimes he's well covered because he's not strong/fast enough. 

 

Yes. I get that and agree with you.   But how many times out of 10 did Allen "hit the spot?"    And did he hit it more frequently than anyone else?   Who knows?   Trent, you, me, the rest of the world?   

 

None of us know, since it's not a stat that's maintained.  It's a concept that only could be obtained by watching every single throw and cross-referencing it with the play called, the players on the field, the weather, the position of the moon...

 

But completion percentage has a long and deep history and is highly correlated with NFL success.  And it's been broken down eight ways to Sunday in ways that show Allen to be very low relative to good NFL QBs.   That's as objective as we can get...

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

12 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

My assessment of EJ coming out was that he was a very long term project.........like the 5 year kind.

 

WRT muscle memory he was an incredibly SLOW learner.........he started for 4 years at FSU and progress with regard to footwork was very incremental.     He was all arms and legs.    He had to abbreviate his throwing motion to try to control the ball better and repeating footwork was difficult with long gangly legs.    His deep throws in particular often resembled shanked punts.     

 

Allen is a MUCH more coordinated athlete.........his throwing motion is natural.........this dude is really impressive on the hoof and he's had far less time at it than EJ.........who believe it or not was a very elite QB prospect in HS who got a ton of instruction at major camps etc..

 

 

 

Sure- the technical details of deficiencies are surely different. Or at least I hope!! 

 

But the whole raw clay to mold is something we’ve heard before, too many effing times. So I get the folks jumping off cliffs. 

 

Im in the hopeful camp.  I thought Beane played the draft perfectly to get the guy I thought was the best qb in the draft without betting the farm, then was utterly deflated, although I had a belief they were for Darnold, Rudolph and maybe Allen but not Mayfield or Rosen because of some non football things. 

[dave mcbride]

5 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

Yes. I get that and agree with you.   But how many times out of 10 did Allen "hit the spot?"    And did he hit it more frequently than anyone else?   Who knows?   Trent, you, me, the rest of the world?   

 

None of us know, since it's not a stat that's maintained.  It's a concept that only could be obtained by watching every single throw and cross-referencing it with the play called, the players on the field, the weather, the position of the moon...

 

But completion percentage has a long and deep history and is highly correlated with NFL success.  And it's been broken down eight ways to Sunday in ways that show Allen to be very low relative to good NFL QBs.   That's as objective as we can get...

I agree, and don't think I'm not worried. But the players around you do matter. Wyoming had terrible talent this year. EJ Manuel, who is not accurate, was a career 67 percent passer at FSU (with a high ypa) because passing to an offense filled with future NFL players meant that someone was ALWAYS open. It's hard to judge, basically. That said, the completion pct stat has historically been a pretty good heuristic for predicting future success. There are always outliers, though, and let's hope he's one of them. I don't it's going too far to say that as a package - size/arm strength/athleticism/tested intelligence - he's arguably the most impressive QB specimen to come along this century. I realize that this is no guarantee that he'll be any good, but the oddness of his case makes me willing to defer judgment. 

Edited April 27, 2018 by dave mcbride

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

19 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

As to your point, watch what Dilfer says about this: 

 

 

This isn't really true at all. He was actually quite accurate in college (68.0% in his senior year; 66.9% overall). The knock was that he was a slow processor and only used one side of the field. Moreover, he was hard to assess because he played on a team absolutely loaded with future NFL players, and someone was ALWAYS open. 

 

His “NFL issue” was inaccuracy.  I should have been specific. 

 

But you do realize you are contradicting the view that comp % does not necessarily relate to accuracy, which you seemed to affirm just now... ?

[Lurker]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

I agree, and don't think I'm not worried. But the players around you do matter. Wyoming had terrible talent this year. EJ Manuel, who is not accurate, was a career 67 percent passer at FSU (with a high ypa) because passing to an offense filled with future NFL players meant that someone was ALWAYS open. It's hard to judge, basically. That said, the completion pct stat has historically been a pretty good heuristic for predicting future success. There are always outliers, though, and let's hope he's one of them. I don't it's going too far to say that as a package - size/arm strength/athleticism/tested intelligence - he's arguably the most impressive specimen to come along this century. I realize that this is no guarantee that he'll be any good, but the oddness of him makes me willing to defer judgment. 

 

Agree on all points.

 

Frankly, I'm still going through the "five stages of Bills fan grief" on this and haven't reached acceptance yet.    You only get these re-set opportunities every 4-5 years and I'm bummed that we're likely headed for another full lunatic cycle once again.   

 

Thanks for the civil discussion.   I'll slowly start to come down this afternoon...

[dave mcbride]

8 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

His “NFL issue” was inaccuracy.  I should have been specific. 

 

But you do realize you are contradicting the view that comp % does not necessarily relate to accuracy, which you seemed to affirm just now... ?

No, I'm not. I'm referring specifically to the stated knocks on him coming out of college. His accuracy issues were mentioned ('area code accuracy'), but they weren't regarded as his his biggest weaknesses. 

 

Interestingly, though, EJ was measured at 6'5", 237 lbs, and a 10 3/8" handsize. Allen is 6'5", 237 lbs, and has a 10 1/8" hand size. Pretty eerie.

 

5 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

Agree on all points.

 

Frankly, I'm still going through the "five stages of Bills fan grief" on this and haven't reached acceptance yet.    You only get these re-set opportunities every 4-5 years and I'm bummed that we're likely headed for another full lunatic cycle once again.   

 

Thanks for the civil discussion.   I'll slowly start to come down this afternoon...

Been there and done that! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kübler-Ross_model

 

I bargained at 11 pm, went to bed depressed, and am now at the acceptance stage.

Edited April 27, 2018 by dave mcbride

[Mat68]

49 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

Apparently your "many years" don't include the JP Losman and EJ Manuel eras.

Neither were considered as highly of as Allen.  They just were not.  

Edited April 27, 2018 by Mat68

[BuckeyeBill]

7 hours ago, Bangarang said:

 

I’ve watched him play and don’t think he’s any good. 

I'm pretty sure the Bills watched him more than you did.

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The comparisons to EJ are pretty comical.........EJ could only dream of having arm talent like Allen.

 

 

 

The Bills did not love EJ as much as they do Allen.  For EJ they traded down because they knew nobody wanted him.  For Allen they felt they needed to trade up.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

11 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Neither were considered as highly of as Allen.  They just were not.  

 

..it's an interesting read to go back and check out the pundits' pre-draft assessments of Losman......."the heir apparent gunslinger going to the Pack at 23"......no relevance to Allen but rather highlighting the "experts' evaluations (COUGH)" of draft candidates...........

[Rico]

I’m not a fan of great big Jethro QBs with great big guns for an arm. I hope he ends up being more like Big Ben then Bledsoe. At least he’s not a statue.

[Malazan]

7 hours ago, Bangarang said:

 

I’ve watched him play and don’t think he’s any good. 

 

Now I'm absolutely sold on Allen being the next Superstar QB.

[Nihilarian]

1 hour ago, Teddy KGB said:

Ej Manuel was good in the Senior Bowl too.  

 

Run it back ! 

1

EJ failed in Buffalo mostly because of the clowns who were coaching him decided not to hire a QB coach or even have a veteran QB on the roster. The only guy EJ had to learn from was Nathanial Hackett who had never been an NFL offensive coordinator previously.

 

Want a sure fire way to ruin any QB prospect? Don't hire a QB coach. Don't have a veteran NFL QB on the roster and instead have three rookies all trying to figure stuff out on their own. Then have the guy teaching them with no NFL experience in his job teaching this three rookie QBs the NFL ropes.

 

What an unholy clusterfluck of stupidity by Bills head coach Saint Doug Marrone. EJ never had a fair chance to develop under Marrone.

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, Rico said:

I’m not a fan of great big Jethro QBs with great big guns for an arm. I hope he ends up being more like Big Ben then Bledsoe. At least he’s not a statue.

Ryan Mallett comes to mind when I hear "great big Jethro QB" (great term!). Allen is by all accounts a good, mobile athlete, though: 4.75 40, which is REALLY good for someone that size. Mallett was 5.37!

Edited April 27, 2018 by dave mcbride

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The comparisons to EJ are pretty comical.........EJ could only dream of having arm talent like Allen.

 

 

 

 

Sure but EJ's career wouldn't have been saved if he had had a stronger arm. That's the problem with picking Allen. A strong arm isn't enough. We just have to hope he develops.

[yungmack]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Arm strength is NOT just about 80 yard bombs. It's about beating defenders on tight window throws. If you're gonna get excited about Josh Allen that's why. He has a howitzer arm and very little football training in life. If we can help him put the rest of it together he will be great but it's a project.

Arm strength is about 80 yard bombs. Arm TALENT is about touch and accuracy.

2 hours ago, Lurker said:

 

I have...and Dilfer is very inarticulate about what "accuracy" is.   

 

How do we measure it?  How do we compare players on it?   He can't tell you, other that to say "I think it's important."

 

Well, who doesn't?   But how do you evaluate one player vs. another on a metric / stat that doesn't exist, Trent?   

About explaining accuracy, maybe Dilfer should just play some tape on Rosen.

[Kelly the Dog]

6 minutes ago, yungmack said:

Arm strength is about 80 yard bombs. Arm TALENT is about touch and accuracy.

Actually arm strength is about the deep out. Fans and pundits often mistake it to mean bombs.