Beane & McDermott Address the Buffalo Media after Round 1

[Mat68]

23 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

When all historical data suggests that something will be a bust, it's usually a bad idea to go all in at a premium price.

 

I've been scouring NFL history and records for a raw cannon armed inaccurate and unpolished QB that fixed it all and went on to great things and I cant find one. Not a single one.

 

There are a lot of small accurate, smart players that improved arm strength, though.

What is this historical data?  Qbr, completion %?  Are we only talking recent history or NFL history?  Its easy to paint stats in an effort to determine future outcomes that meet pre determined outcomes and biases.

 

Tell me a Qb who succeed in the NFL with poor passer rating and completion %?  Farve.  No you cant use Farve he was drafted 30 years ago.  Well Allen has the best arm in 30 years?

Edited April 27, 2018 by Mat68

[BullBuchanan]

10 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

What is this historical data?  Qbr, completion %?  Are we only talking recent history or NFL history?  Its easy to paint stats in an effort to determine future outcomes that meet pre determined outcomes and biases.

 

I cant find a single example of a strong armed inaccurate college QB prospect that resolved his accuracy issues in the pros and found success. I'm talking 80's+

 

In fact nearly all successful NFL QBs posted 60%+ in college. Allen is 2 points or worse below every decent QB I've found at 56%.

 

I'd love to find an example. Help me change my mind. Help me find a player he could morph into. Ben Roethlisberger completed 65% in college so comparisons between him and Allen are about as accurate as Peyton Manning and Favre.

 

Of the 30+ good/great QBs I researched, none improved their college accuracy by more than a couple points besides Drew Brees and his numbers were already great.

 

That's my data - what's yours?

[Mat68]

2 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

I cant find a single example of a strong armed inaccurate college QB prospect that resolved his accuracy issues in the pros and found success. I'm talking 80's+

 

In fact nearly all successful NFL QBs posted 60%+ in college. Allen is 2 points or worse below every decent QB I've found at 56%.

 

I'd love to find an example. Help me change my mind. Help me find a player he could morph into. Ben Roethlisberger completed 65% in college so comparisons between him and Allen are about as accurate as Peyton Manning and Favre.

 

Of the 30+ good/great QBs I researched, none improved their college accuracy by more than a couple points besides Drew Brees and his numbers were already great.

 

That's my data - what's yours?

Farve

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/brett-favre-1.html

 

Edited April 27, 2018 by Mat68

[BullBuchanan]

4 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Farve

 

I'll be damned. Favre it is. I'm actually really happy to have that. Let's hope on the scale of Boller -> Favre he skews the right way.

Edited April 27, 2018 by BullBuchanan

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

I'll be damned. Favre it is. I'm actually really happy to have that. Let's hope on the scale of Boller -> Favre he skews the right way.

That we agree on

[Mat68]

5 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

I'll be damned. Favre it is. I'm actually really happy to have that. Let's hope on the scale of Boller -> Favre he skews the right way.

Boller was actually much worst.  He was under 50% Marino was much worst but that is nearly 40 years ago.

Edited April 27, 2018 by Mat68

[BullBuchanan]

6 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Boller was actually much worst.  He was under 50% Marino was much worst but that is nearly 40 years ago.

 Marino was better and he raised his accuracy less than 2% which seems to be the best you can reasonably expect.

[Kelly the Dog]

Interesting that Beane and McDermott called a bunch of Bills players and asked them if they had any problem with drafting Allen because of the tweets. Obviously the players had no real objections. I like that they did that although I didn't think the tweets were a deal breaker myself. 

[dakrider]

so for all those who are so enamored with college completion percentage....  2 guys who had great college completion % are Kellen Moore and Tim Tebow.  I think both guys are available!   Kellen Moore was phenomenal in college, over 70%.  

John Elway completion % in college was 58% his Jr year and 64% his Sr year, but his overall NFL completion % was 57%

Brett Farve completion % in college was just over 54% his Jr & Sr years, but his overall NFL completion % was 62%

 

Trying to say either Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield's college completion percentage will determine their NFL success, is completely ridiculous.   

[Kelly the Dog]

2 minutes ago, dakrider said:

so for all those who are so enamored with college completion percentage....  2 guys who had great college completion % are Kellen Moore and Tim Tebow.  I think both guys are available!   Kellen Moore was phenomenal in college, over 70%.  

John Elway completion % in college was 58% his Jr year and 64% his Sr year, but his overall NFL completion % was 57%

Brett Farve completion % in college was just over 54% his Jr & Sr years, but his overall NFL completion % was 62%

 

Trying to say either Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield's college completion percentage will determine their NFL success, is completely ridiculous.   

Moore can't play in NFL because he has a rag arm. 

[BullBuchanan]

1 minute ago, dakrider said:

so for all those who are so enamored with college completion percentage....  2 guys who had great college completion % are Kellen Moore and Tim Tebow.  I think both guys are available!   Kellen Moore was phenomenal in college, over 70%.  

John Elway completion % in college was 58% his Jr year and 64% his Sr year, but his overall NFL completion % was 57%

Brett Farve completion % in college was just over 54% his Jr & Sr years, but his overall NFL completion % was 62%

 

Trying to say either Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield's college completion percentage will determine their NFL success, is completely ridiculous.   

College accuracy is not a solo indicator of pro success. College inaccuracy however is a strong and reliable indicator of failure in the Pros.

[yungmack]

McD says "you look for guys who can make plays." So how in God's name do you the take Allen over Rosen. Or over Jackson for that matter. Allen wasn't even considered the best QB in a rinky dink conference. And one of the big criticisms is that he didn't make plays when it counted! If the Bills are very, very lucky, they can" coach him up" to Kyle Boller/Jake Locker level. And to think they traded UP for him. It's just embarrassing. 

[yungmack]

14 hours ago, Dkollidas said:

Allen will need to sit for the year... but they all have warts. 

No way a #7 pick should be sitting for a year. But then, no way should Allen be that pick. 

[Dkollidas]

4 minutes ago, yungmack said:

No way a #7 pick should be sitting for a year. But then, no way should Allen be that pick. 

 

Why not? Goff sat the first half of his first season.

People are raving about Mahomes, and he sat his entire first year... is it really that big a difference if they were picked 7th as opposed to 10th overall?

 

Hes obviously got raw talent that needs to be developed & refined. Just because you don’t like the pick doesn’t mean a guy should immediately start day 1 because he was picked in the first round, especially at QB. 

[Kelly the Dog]

5 minutes ago, Dkollidas said:

 

Why not? Goff sat the first half of his first season.

People are raving about Mahomes, and he sat his entire first year... is it really that big a difference if they were picked 7th as opposed to 10th overall?

 

Hes obviously got raw talent that needs to be developed & refined. Just because you don’t like the pick doesn’t mean a guy should immediately start day 1 because he was picked in the first round, especially at QB. 

Mahomes was behind a 10+ year vet who lead the league in passing. 

[Dkollidas]

Just now, Kelly the Dog said:

Mahomes was behind a 10+ year vet who lead the league in passing. 

Correct. But the point is where the development of the QB is served greatest. And that’s clearly with him on the bench for year one. 

[Kelly the Dog]

Just now, Dkollidas said:

Correct. But the point is where the development of the QB is served greatest. And that’s clearly with him on the bench for year one. 

Thats not clear at all. There are a ton of examples of guys starting right away that was the best thing for them. 

[Rocbillsfan1]

15 hours ago, Bangarang said:

I really wish we can stop with this weather nonsense. We get it, it gets cold and there is snow on the ground in the winter. Why does it have to make up the identity of our offense? This whole run the ball and drafting QBs with big hands to throw it in the swirling winds blah blah blah

 

Just once I’d like to draft a guy who is good at actually passing the ball and gets to rip it on Sundays. I foresee the next several years of being an offense that has the fewest passing attempts simply because our QBs suck at it. Three yards and a cloud of dust buecause we are a blue collar town and that’s what we deserve

Not that I’m huge fans of theirs but the last 2 qbs to get us to the playoffs were Tyrod Taylor and Doug flutie. How bout just get us the best !@#$ing QB. Also I remember Rogers having to play away playoff games on the rd in domes. What if we have to play teams in the south? What a joke the weather line is at this point. 

[Dkollidas]

2 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

Thats not clear at all. There are a ton of examples of guys starting right away that was the best thing for them. 

I just think his limited experience (was in JUCO two years ago and shows a lot raw type of traits) could be better served by a year (or at least a good portion of the year), on the bench learning the playbook, focusing on his mechanics, etc. 

[yungmack]

9 hours ago, DisplacedBillsFan said:

A top QB prospect and a day one starter at LB. Fantastic job in this draft so far!

 

Who is this team you are referring to? I know it isn't the Bills who spectacularly overreached for a QB who has bust written all over him, and traded up for a LB regarded as a 2nd round talent by many.

Edited April 27, 2018 by yungmack