Interesting Take From QB Guru on Allen

[boyst]

1 hour ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Not so just to name two 

 

Drew Brees

Tom Brady 

 

Add - Stafford 

im sure there are more 

I know it's not 100% true but it has been said as sort of the Golden rule. Sirius has had discussions on it. Gil Brandt says it all.the time 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

1 minute ago, Boyst62 said:

I know it's not 100% true but it has been said as sort of the Golden rule. Sirius has had discussions on it. Gil Brandt says it all.the time 

 

Just more evidence the whole process is still more  art than science... the only golden rule is there’s are no golden rules 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

This morning on WGR they had Jordan Palmer on.  Despite swearing to God I would never listen to one more word about the stupid draft until it's over, I found his take on Josh Allen very interesting. He said keep in mind that completion percentage is very different between certain players when you consider the offenses they played in. For example Baker Mayfield threw to wide open receivers on more than half his throws last year while Josh Allen's film showed his receivers had very little separation. 

He also said you should add 6 to 10 points on to the completion percentage of a quarterback who runs the type of offense that Allen did when compared to an offense like Mayfield's. 

His logic is that there are a lot of very high completion plays such as bubble screens, smokes, quick slants, even shovel passes that many other offenses run but Allen's didn't.  These are easy throws that inflate stats. 

    

He went on to say that despite Josh Allen playing in junior college three years ago, the guy is mature and has a magnetic personality, great teammate and he was very high on him being successful in the NFL.   He compared his personality to Fitzy. 

If we do end up taking the kid, I suggest you go play the clip of the interview on the GR website, it will keep you from walking into the lake. 

 

About the most thorough data analysis of this year's top QB prospects available to us Armchair Andys is Ben Solak's Contextualized QBing.

Unlike some other analysts, he tucks the raw data in there so you can see what numbers he's working with, he doesn't just boil it down to percentages.

 

Solak charts for "tight window" vs "clear" throws. 

 

Of Allen's 220 attempts, he charts Allen as completing 120/184 "clear" throws (84% of his attempts were "clear", and he completed 65% of them. 

He charts Allen as completing 10/36 attempts into "tight windows" (16% of his attempts were "tight windows", and he completed  28% of them)

 

That's kind of like, not so good?

 

Of Mayfield's 329 attempts, he charts Mayfield as having 215/261 "clear" throws (79% of his attempts were clear, and he completed 82% of them).  He charts Mayfield as completing 28/68 "tight window" throws (21% of his attempts were clear, and he completed 41% of them).

 

I call "shenanigans" on Palmer.  In theory, what he says could plausibly be true, but the data speaks otherwise.

 

I'm sure Josh Allen has a great personality and is a great teammate, just like Fitzy.  My concern is that he will be an inaccurate QB who makes bad decisions - also just like Fitzy.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, twist_to_open said:

You actually watched every single play of his?.......hardcore!

 

Wander over to the "College Football" forum and check out the QB Film Room series.  Buffalo716 doles the straight gouge.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Jordan Palmer says NFL teams 'will fall in love' with Sean Mannion

[Thurman#1]

12 hours ago, kdiggz said:

Palmer is Allen's QB coach. What is he going to say? He sucks? 

 

 

There are plenty of things you can say if you don't believe in a guy but don't want to say he sucks.

 

You can say, "He gives 110% on every play, and you're going to get the best he's got to give." You can say, "He's a winner. He's just a winner. That's all you have to know about the guy is that he does what needs to be done to win." I got a million of them and I'm sure so do you. 

 

Palmer is extremely specific about what he likes about Allen. That's good, when guys are specific they're generally being truthful. He also talks about where he needs improvement. That's also good.

 

None of which proves he'll be successful but Palmer doesn't have to be as supportive as he is. He was paid at the beginning in a lump sum by the agent. He won't see anymore money from Allen. He could slide into the meaningless clichés. Yet he isn't.

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

About the most thorough data analysis of this year's top QB prospects available to us Armchair Andys is Ben Solak's Contextualized QBing.

Unlike some other analysts, he tucks the raw data in there so you can see what numbers he's working with, he doesn't just boil it down to percentages.

 

Solak charts for "tight window" vs "clear" throws. 

 

Of Allen's 220 attempts, he charts Allen as completing 120/184 "clear" throws (84% of his attempts were "clear", and he completed 65% of them. 

He charts Allen as completing 10/36 attempts into "tight windows" (16% of his attempts were "tight windows", and he completed  28% of them)

 

That's kind of like, not so good?

 

Of Mayfield's 329 attempts, he charts Mayfield as having 215/261 "clear" throws (79% of his attempts were clear, and he completed 82% of them).  He charts Mayfield as completing 28/68 "tight window" throws (21% of his attempts were clear, and he completed 41% of them).

 

I call "shenanigans" on Palmer.  In theory, what he says could plausibly be true, but the data speaks otherwise.

 

I'm sure Josh Allen has a great personality and is a great teammate, just like Fitzy.  My concern is that he will be an inaccurate QB who makes bad decisions - also just like Fitzy.

 

 

 

Were Mayfield's tight window throws further downfield than Allen's, the same length, or shorter? That's a major factor.

 

As is what Peter King said in his recent column about team sources saying Allen is hard to evaluate because he had so many free rushers headed at him, far more than the others in the top four. That'll affect your numbers plenty.

 

"When NFL teams have scouted Allen, they’ve noticed how Allen seemed to be under pressure far more than any of the other five first-round candidates. And they’ve noticed how poorly he responded to that pressure. It’s not just the 56.3 career completion percentage that bothers teams; it’s how he has responded to pressure. And, as one official from a quarterback-needy team told me, how difficult it was to scout him because he had so many free rushers coming at him consistently.

"So I asked analytics service Pro Football Focus, which also studies college players in preparation for the draft, to do a workup on whether Allen indeed was pressured significantly more than the other quarterbacks in the draft, and how he performed under pressure. The answers were rather startling."

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/04/18/josh-allen-draft-cleveland-browns-mmqb-peter-king

 

There's plenty more there, good and bad.

 

 

 

My guess is that the major improvements he's made in accuracy since the season ended are going to stick, particularly if his team is smart and benches him for a year. I'm more worried about decision-making and going through progressions in a situation that will be a lot more complex than what he's seen so far. That's where most QBs who have problems have them, and I expect it always will be. I would worry about that for anyone we draft.

Edited April 26, 2018 by Thurman#1

[transplantbillsfan]

I really and truly want to like Allen because I fear we might draft him so I'd like to resign myself to him sooner rather than later.

 

I even decided to watch this 20+ minute interview of Jordan Palmer by Rich Eisen

 

 

The problem is I come away even from this interview still wanting Darnold a lot more than him and even thinking Kyle Allen in a later round would be a significantly better option than trading up in the 1st round for Josh Allen.

Edited April 26, 2018 by transplantbillsfan

[Elite Poster]

The bubble screen comment was funny. There's how I know you haven't watched Allen play. He cannot hit a screen for his life.

[billsredneck1]

18 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

I have watched and broke down every single  play from Allen’s career at Wyoming 

 

Palmer saying he doenst throw screens is a little bias. By my account he threw 49 passes out of 270 at or behind the line of scrimmage 

 

that is 18% and higher than Lamar Jackson at 15%

please tell more of what you saw.

[Midwest1981]

6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

My guess is that the major improvements he's made in accuracy since the season ended are going to stick, particularly if his team is smart and benches him for a year. I'm more worried about decision-making and going through progressions in a situation that will be a lot more complex than what he's seen so far. That's where most QBs who have problems have them, and I expect it always will be. I would worry about that for anyone we draft.

If he's coming here then I fervently hope you're right.  Still, you have to concede it's easier for your mechanics to be cleaned up when throwing against air in a t-shirt and shorts in the spring (Combine, Pro Day, training, etc.) than when the "live bullets" actually start flying in the fall during actual games.  I hope they become automatic and reflexive because they're a part of his muscle memory.  For many QB's before him, that's when the faulty mechanics reemerge.  Let's hope not.

Edited April 26, 2018 by Midwest1981

[BillsFan17]

So, flaming out of the NFL, and getting kids to work with you makes you a "guru?"

 

Especially when you work with everything from round one talent all the way down.