C.Biscuit97 Posted April 25, 2018 Posted April 25, 2018 1 hour ago, BillsSbSoon said: I agree with all that for the most part. But watching him i gotta say i dont think hes as horrendusly inaccurate as hes made out to be. For one thing his wr's couldnt seem to get separation a lot of the time. He wasnt exactly playing with a lot of talent He also completed less than 50% of his passes at a low level JUCO. For example, people liked Connor Cook last year. Cook was like a 56% passer in the Big Ten and couldn’t beat out EJ. It just amazes me the love people have for Allen. I’d love for him to be good. But man, he makes me super nervous.
greeneblitz Posted April 25, 2018 Posted April 25, 2018 5 hours ago, Chuck Wagon said: Palmer has been pumping up Allen the whole process. He worked with both Darnold and Allen this year extensively. Teams are a lot higher on Allen than fans. This is because fans are generally dumb and look at a couple of stat lines and form their battle lines. Professionals spend hundred of hours vetting these guys and their play.
Fadingpain Posted April 25, 2018 Posted April 25, 2018 All advanced statistics try to take something that is incredibly complex and distill it down to a simple result with a simple calculation. It's not that simple. To really get a "correct" answer, a model needs to be incredibly complex with many variables. Something like "completion percentage" is more complicated than simply keeping track of whether or not a pass was caught for a gain. What you are really trying to decide, anyway, is if the QB is an accurate passer. Completion % doesn't really tell you the full story with regard to that.
C.Biscuit97 Posted April 25, 2018 Posted April 25, 2018 Also, how did Jordan Palmer become a QB guru? Does anyone know Travis Brown’s or Levi Brown’s thoughts on this class?
BillsCelticsAngelsBama Posted April 25, 2018 Posted April 25, 2018 (edited) 5 hours ago, kdiggz said: Palmer is Allen's QB coach. What is he going to say? He sucks? hmmmm kind of expected him to say he hasn't had anyone to coach him up yet. 5 hours ago, BillsEnthusiast said: They're NOT buffalo wings, Josh.... ?. Is this Northeastern wing snobbery ? 5 hours ago, BillsEnthusiast said: They're NOT buffalo wings, Josh.... Edited April 25, 2018 by MOVALLEYRANDY
JohnC Posted April 25, 2018 Posted April 25, 2018 5 hours ago, whatdrought said: I don't watch much tape, so this thread prompted me to look for "bad tape" of Allen (and I did not look all that far, so feel free to show me other examples) and I found this game against Iowa. The stat line seemed to indicate that this would be bad tape, but after watching this I actually like Allen more. He's doing a lot here with absolutely no protection and no separation by his receivers. I'm not saying he's going to be great, but this tape which at first I thought would be bad, showed me a QB who (obviously has rough edges) knows how to make things happen. (those interceptions were both rough though.) Raw talent. Would not be afraid to take him if the other options are not available. If you want to get a return on him you need patience and good coaching. While many so no I say why not and fear not!
BillsSbSoon Posted April 25, 2018 Posted April 25, 2018 30 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: He also completed less than 50% of his passes at a low level JUCO. For example, people liked Connor Cook last year. Cook was like a 56% passer in the Big Ten and couldn’t beat out EJ. It just amazes me the love people have for Allen. I’d love for him to be good. But man, he makes me super nervous. Yeah hes raw theres no doubt about it. Someone is going to think hes a poor mans cam newton though. I wasnt a cook guy but theres not much comparison between the two in terms of raw talent
maryland-bills-fan Posted April 25, 2018 Posted April 25, 2018 2 hours ago, BillsSbSoon said: I agree with all that for the most part. But watching him i gotta say i dont think hes as horrendusly inaccurate as hes made out to be. For one thing his wr's couldnt seem to get separation a lot of the time. He wasnt exactly playing with a lot of talent Yes that is true. He played 2 years with a community college football program and only two of 350 or so 4 year colleges even answered his requests for a 'ship. He is clueless about playing with nfl level WR or DB. He might learn this. He might not have the timing in his brain to be able to learn this. The Bills should pass on this dicey guy and build on someone who has been there and done this.
BillsSbSoon Posted April 25, 2018 Posted April 25, 2018 2 hours ago, jrober38 said: He wasn't playing against anyone with talent either. He played only 3 power conference teams and struggled against Mountain West competition. Yeah i know. Its a gigantic gamble with him any way you look at it.
LeGOATski Posted April 25, 2018 Posted April 25, 2018 What about throwing at stationary target nets who aren't being covered by anyone? What causes that miss?
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 25, 2018 Posted April 25, 2018 7 hours ago, Da webster guy said: This morning on WGR they had Jordan Palmer on. Despite swearing to God I would never listen to one more word about the stupid draft until it's over, I found his take on Josh Allen very interesting. I think they should have all the QB gurus each draft prospect is working with, "on" to gush about them (Palmer has been coaching Allen) 1 hour ago, BillsSbSoon said: Yeah hes raw theres no doubt about it. Someone is going to think hes a poor mans cam newton though. And that's fine if he's drafted in a "poor man's Cam Newton" slot.
Buffalo86 Posted April 25, 2018 Posted April 25, 2018 Jordan Palmer is Allen's personal trainer, so his words aren't likely to change many minds among front office personnel, scouts, draft gurus, or message board posters.
CSBill Posted April 25, 2018 Posted April 25, 2018 7 hours ago, Buffalo716 said: I have watched and broke down every single play from Allen’s career at Wyoming Palmer saying he doenst throw screens is a little bias. By my account he threw 49 passes out of 270 at or behind the line of scrimmage that is 18% and higher than Lamar Jackson at 15% You watched every one of his plays at Wyoming? ..... not sure whether laugh or cry.
Augie Posted April 25, 2018 Posted April 25, 2018 7 hours ago, kdiggz said: Palmer is Allen's QB coach. What is he going to say? He sucks? “....but he was terrific before I got ahold of him!” The very first pass I ever saw Allen throw was a bubble screen to his left. He one hopped it to the WR and I did the EJ shudder. That’s hard for me to get over. I’ve seen awesome, and I’ve seen blecht!
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted April 25, 2018 Posted April 25, 2018 (edited) 7 hours ago, Boyst62 said: I prefer the adage that no QB improves their completion percentage in the pros from college Not so just to name two Drew Brees Tom Brady Add - Stafford im sure there are more Edited April 25, 2018 by Over 29 years of fanhood
Wily Dog Posted April 26, 2018 Posted April 26, 2018 17 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said: Not so just to name two Drew Brees Tom Brady Add - Stafford im sure there are more Favre
Buffalo86 Posted April 26, 2018 Posted April 26, 2018 34 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said: Not so just to name two Drew Brees Tom Brady Add - Stafford im sure there are more 16 minutes ago, Wily Dog said: Favre Good points, though Favre is the only one I can think of who never hit 60%. Interesting article I came across that paints 58.5% in a player's final college year as the threshold for failure: https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/65zs0w/oc_why_585_is_the_magic_number_for_qbs_in_the_nfl/
Green Lightning Posted April 26, 2018 Posted April 26, 2018 8 hours ago, Dr. Who said: I think it's because a lot of folks who bash Allen focus on completion percentage. It's because his completion percentage sucked, and no revisionist stats is going to change that. Top it off his quarterback ranking gets cut in half every time he's blitzed. Please, no Allen!
Buffalo Ballin Posted April 26, 2018 Posted April 26, 2018 8 hours ago, sven233 said: Everyone knows how I feel about Allen on this board. I want no part of him.....especially if it requires a trade up. There are 4 other guys in this draft I want more and I think it would be a failure to come out of this draft with Allen. However, I will say this about Allen and defend him a bit. I watched all but 1 of his games this year. We all know he has the physical tools you dream about a QB having. But one of the reasons a lot of us a terrified of taking him is his accuracy and completion percentage. What Palmer, Mayock, etc. are saying is indeed true. The offense he played in was a vertical offense that very rarely incorporated routes at less than 10 yards. Yes, he did miss easy throws, but if you watch the games, you realize a lot of their offense was pushing the ball down the field in chunks. You didn't see a ton of swing passes, screens, slants, etc. Most everything was designed to push the ball down the field in chunks. So yes.....with an offensive scheme designed to do this, it is only natural for the completion percentage to be down a bit. Coupled with a complete lack of receiving talent, Allen was not put in the best position to succeed. That said, there is no way his completion percentage should be THAT low playing in that conference. To me, the reason I don't want him is more about other things. I think he is slow to read the field at times, he very rarely anticipates throws and waits to see guys coming open to throw the ball winch cause him to be late on throws, and he bails out of the pocket way too early far too often. Add that to the accuracy issues and you have a project QB that I want no part of. There is such a disparity between how good and bad that Allen could end up being. If he reaches his MAX potential, he could be Marino. However, if he doesn't, there is a chance he could be out of the league or relegated to backup status before he ever sees the field. Look, Josh Allen could very well end up being the best QB in the class when it is said and done. He has the best physical tools in the draft. But this is about achieving that potential and I firmly believe Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield all have a better chance to succeed. I could also make the case that Jackson is a guy I would rather take than Allen. I don't want to draft Allen. I have been pushing all along to do whatever it takes for Darnold, Rosen, or Mayfield. WHATEVER IT TAKES. Let some other team take the chance on Allen. But as a guy that has watched a ton of Allen, not just the highlights, and just not looking at stats, I wanted to defend him a bit because he deserves a little better than what he has been getting. That said - DARNOLD, ROSEN, OR MAYFIELD. FINISH THE JOB. Well said. He reminds me of EJ Manuel and Rob Johnson. Josh Allen physically looks the part, but when I examined his stats via Football Outsiders, yuck! His numbers compared to Mayfield, Rosen, Lamar Jackson, and Darnold are awful. Jesus Christ almighty.
NoSaint Posted April 26, 2018 Posted April 26, 2018 8 hours ago, HappyDays said: I don't think that's true. Every time someone defends Allen as a top choice they say "people who hate him are just stat watchers, they haven't seen the tape." I can assure you we have. It's 2018. His tape is easy to find for anyone who wants to see it. Some people might bring up his completion percentage as a data point but it is not the end all be all of why he doesn't have a lot of fans. Im not sure you speak for most. I think it’s a stretch to say even most here have watched a lot of his games to fully grasp the scheme he was in.... and this is a tiny sliver of the most obsessive fans.
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