Why the Bills Won't Trade Up to #2 (or 3 or 4)

[BadLandsMeanie]

22 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree with this too.   I just can't see how the Giants can afford to pass on a QB.   So three QBs go in the top 4, and as you say maybe 4 in 5.   

 

So if the Bills' favorite QB is available at 4, MAYBE they can put together a deal with the Browns to get ahead of the Broncos.  

 

All seems pretty remote to me.   

The Giants pass on a QB high if Eli has gas in the tank. To me that is obvious. This draft is perfect for the Giants because their major needs are O-line and running back. This draft is deep in both. They could be a Superbowl contender in one swoop if Eli still has it.

 

Picking a QB is at best a 50-50 chance at a good QB and you usually have to wait years to find out. Take the linemen and an RB and go for it.

[26CornerBlitz]

20 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Hello?   You're not listening.   It isn't a question of whether the Bills have enough to offer to move up.   It's a question whether the Giants will take ANYTHING to move out of the second pick.   

 

The Giants are playing Eli this year, apparently, and maybe next year.   But pretty soon, they're going to need a QB, and they aren't likely to have another opportunity as good as they have this year.   

 

So the Giants are saying "screw the draft trade chart."   The Giants don't want five picks starting at 12; they want one pick at 2.   And if they don't a pick at 2, they want one at 3 or 4.    The chances of putting together a deal with the Giants and the Browns to get the Giants to 4 are very, very slim.   That's what I explained in my post.   

 

NickelCity is right.   There probably are going to be a lot of broken hearts around 10 pm on Thursday.   

 

Mason Rudolph, here we come.  

 

I hope this as on point as your takes on Cousins to Buffalo.

Edited April 22, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz

[BuffaloRush]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Like lots of people here, I've been thinking about what might happen between now and Thursday night.  

 

We've seen some rumors about the Bills talking to the Giants and some rumors about there being no deal with the Giants.  

 

Well, as I think about, it seems clear that there'll be no deal with Giants because the Bills can't offer the Giants anything that works for the Giants.  

 

Either the Giants want one of the good QBs or they don't.   If they want one of the good QBs, then the only trade they'll do is to move to 1, 3 or possibly 4.   If they trade down below 4, the QB they want could be gone.   If they want one of the stud non-QBs, they can't move to 5 because the Browns may take the best stud non-QB at 4.   

 

So it seems likely the only way the Bills could get to #2 would be if the Bills first traded to 4 and then traded up again.   But getting to 4 will be expensive - probably at least the 12 and 22, and that would be only if the Browns didn't like any of the studs at the top of the draft.   Then from 4 to 2 probably would cost next year's first.   

 

There's a rumor that the Bills actually offered those three firsts to the Giants and the Giants said no.   The Giants said no, probably, because they know they don't want to pick below 3 or 4 at the worst, and getting those three firsts doesn't help them UNLESS THEY have a deal with the Browns for 4.   

 

So that means to me the only route there is for the Bills to get to #2 is essentially a three-team trade, where the Bills go to #2, the Giants go to #4 and get the Bills' first round pick next year, and the Browns get the Bills' #12 and #22.   (Maybe a few late-round picks thrown in here and there to grease the skids.)   That seems to me to be a very, very hard deal to make.   Giants more or less won't do it if they want a QB, because it lets Buffalo and the Jets get in the QB line ahead of the Giants.   Only can work if the Giants want one of the top-of-the-draft non-QB studs AND the Browns don't want any of them.   

 

And it's much easier for the Giants to tell the Jets they're looking to trade out of #2, and to protect themselves the Jets would need to trade up.   So the Giants can easily pick up another nice pick by moving back to #3, at no cost to them so long as they don't want a QB.   

 

So the Bills are picking, at the very best, 4th.   Even that seems like a stretch.   The QB they want would have to be there (after the Browns, Giants and Jets have taken two or three of the QBs), and the Bills would have to be willing to give 12 and 22 to get there.   Possible, not likely.  

 

Can the Bills get to 5?   Only if the Broncos don't want the QB the Bills want. 

 

So it looks to me like Bills will be picking after at least 3 QBs have come off the board.  

 

If the Bills actually did offer the Giants three first round picks (12, 22 and 2019) for #2, I wonder this:   Two months ago, that was  21, 22 and Cordy Glenn.   Did the Bills offer THAT to the Colts for #3?   THAT's the deal the Bills should have made, if it was possible.   The problem always was that the Jets had a much more attractive first-round pick to offer.  

 

it seems to me that you are assuming the Giants will take a QB.  From everyone in the know, they aren’t going to.  so there goes the whole “Bills picking after 3 QB’s are off the board” conversation

[DefenseWins]

At this point I am not believing much of anything I read about the draft. It seems clear that we won't know anything for sure till Thursday night. None of us knows the "context" of the supposed 3 #1 picks "offer"... Did they turn it down (assuming it even was actually made) because they like Darnold for instance and want to wait and see what Cleveland actually does? Are they hoping to get an even better offer on Draft Nite? None of us can know these things. And How does McBeane actually feel about the 4 Qb's that we are talking about? Does he have a "favorite" or does he like all 4 about equally? STAY TUNED...

 

And can we even be sure that the Giants truly covet Barkley when Chubb might be the non-QB that they really want? If the Bills trade up to 5 the Giants may have a different opinion of the Bills offer... TUNE IN DRAFT NITE!

Edited April 22, 2018 by DefenseWins

[Hapless Bills Fan]

38 minutes ago, White Linen said:

It doesn't matter - it's all about a trade partner.  

 

Something that may help you is the QB's in this years draft from best to worst will not be in the same order they were drafted.  

 

This can not be repeated enough.  The QB in this year's draft, in terms of NFL performance, WILL NOT rank in their draft order.

 

I know people like to get all "we can't tell anything from draft history!  Each draft and each player is new and unique!"  Well, no, you can't predict how an individual player will perform in the NFL or what choices an individual team will make, but you can get a pretty good idea, overall, how things are likely to fall out.

 

I did a post on this a while ago, and White Linen is ABSOLUTELY correct.    It is very unlikely that, in 3 years, we will find that the QB in this draft were drafted in the order of their NFL performance.  Injuries will take a toll.  So will NFL FO outsmarting themselves and failing to correctly weight important factors like ability to throw accurately, process game information quickly (not equal to Wonderlic!), and overall work ethic/want-it.

 

Let's do a couple examples, with Performance Rankings from Career AV off pro-football-reference (to use a well-known source; I would personally rank them a bit differently). 

I'll give the draft order, then re-shuffle according to CarAV still giving the original draft order.

 

2011.  Predictions pre-draft had 4 or 5 QB taken high in the first.  Turned out to be not so high, and not the same QB:

2011 QB Draft order: 1- Newton 8-Locker 10-Gabbert 12-Ponder 35-Dalton 36-Kaepernick

2011 NFL performance ranking: 1-Newton 35-Dalton 36-Kaepernick 10-Gabbert (Locker and Ponder out of NFL, Kaepernick looking. )

 

2012 is another draft where a lot of QB were predicted to be taken high in the first:

2012 QB Draft Order: 1-Luck 2-Griffin 8-Tannehill 22-Weedon 57-Osweiler 75-Wilson 88-Foles 102-Cousins

2012 NFL performance ranking: 75-Wilson 1-Luck 8-Tannehill 102-Cousins 2-Griffin 88-Foles 57- Osweiler (Weedon out of football; I would put Cousins and Foles ahead of Tannehill)

 

2014:

2014 QB Draft Order: 3-Bortles 22-Manziel 32-Bridgewater 36-Carr 62-Garropolo 120-Thomas 135-Savage

2014 NFL Performance Ranking: 3-Bortles 36-Carr 32-Bridgewater 62-Garropolo (Manziel out of football, Thomas & Savage backups; I would put Garropolo ahead of them all on limited data and possibly Carr 2nd, again on limited data)

 

 

[Foxx]

6 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

I hope this as on point as your takes on Cousins to Buffalo.

thats ancient history.

[RochesterRob]

8 minutes ago, NickelCity said:

 

I chuckled at that low-ball estimate. Whatever happens, can the servers on here handle it?

  In some cases I suspect mental health is an issue which is no joking matter so I worry whether the posters can handle it.  When people say that the Giants HAVE TO follow their recommended course of action for example it tells me that somebody is having trouble facing reality.  I hope nobody goes off the deep end and hurts someone (seriously).  It's just a game people.

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

A thought provoking post. I of course, have no idea what anybody will do, besides being very sure the Jets will take a QB.

 

Here is my take on what the Giants might do if they do not want a QB at #2, and how the Bills could get that #2 pick.

 

Let's say the Bills will only trade the farm for one player so they can't make a deal until the Browns pick. 

 

A giant swap of picks when the Giants go on the clock could lead to disaster for the Giants if they want to pick higher than #12 and plus then they have a whole different draft board profile working with a hugely different set of picks (The Bills old ones). It would be a lot to contend with during the draft with the clock ticking I think. Maybe not a smart thing to do.

 

Except if the Bills have done that work for them already, without anyone knowing. The Bills could and should already know pretty much what it will take to get to picks 4,5,6,7,8,9,10 based on the picks they have. So the Bills could offer in effect, the 7th overall pick, plus added picks, to the Giants for their #2. They wouldn't give the Giants that 7 pick directly but they would give them the picks to get it, plus whatever else they had to add to make it worth the jump from 7 to 2.

 

No one in the Giants division picks before #13 so there would be no complication there.

 

In sum, the Gaints probably can't react quickly enough to re-plan their draft carefully if they trade on draft day. But the Bills could already have the deals worked out in principle for the Giants so they just hand them the keys so to speak. And they could do this because Gentleman and Beane are friends who trust each other.

 

What do people think?

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think something like this already has happened.   That's what GMs are doing all day.   So Beane's already talked to the Giants and found out how far down the Giants are willing to move (more about that in a second).   So the Giants said "we might be interested if you could get us to 7."  So then Beane calls whoever has 7 and talks to them about whether they'd be willing to move back to 12 on draft night, and what it might cost.   So they maybe put together a tentative deal that they agree they'd be willing to finalize once the Giants are on the clock.   

 

Then everyone waits for Thursday night.   If the guy the Giants want gets taken by the Browns, they talk to the Bills and say "if you can get 7, we'll do the deal."  Bills call #7 and say "we'll do it if you'll do it."   Done deal, Bills call the Giants (they're probably actually waiting on the other line), finalize, notify the league and take their QB.  

 

However, I think that only happens if (1) the Giants don't want a QB and (2) the guy they do want (Barkely, probably) gets taken by the Browns at 1.   If the Giants want a QB, they're going to take their first choice at 2 or, if the Browns take him, they'll take their second choice.    

 

That was the point of my original post.    If there are one or two guys the Giants want at the top of the draft, the Giants aren't trading out of 2 unless they're trading to 3 or possibly 4.   So although, yes, it's possible that something could happen like you describe, I think it's very unlikely, because the Giants just aren't going to want to move that far back.   

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, Foxx said:

thats ancient history.

 

Not the point. 

[Boatdrinks]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

it seems to me that you are assuming the Giants will take a QB.  From everyone in the know, they aren’t going to.  so there goes the whole “Bills picking after 3 QB’s are off the board” conversation

I agree, I think the Giants made that decision at the end of last season. I just don't think they'd smooth over everything with Eli, get a new HC then pick a QB at 2. May as well have just traded Eli in the offseason and turned the page. I think the Gmen believe they have a couple more seasons with Manning. In short , they think they are better than the pundits do. Taking a QB to sit until 2020 seems unlikely at their draft position. 

[Foxx]

1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Not the point. 

i understood the point. i was actually agreeing with you.

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, Foxx said:

i understood the point. i was actually agreeing with you.

 

Sorry. My misunderstanding. 

[Foxx]

1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Sorry. My misunderstanding. 

i could have expressed it better.

[Shaw66]

10 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

The Giants pass on a QB high if Eli has gas in the tank. To me that is obvious. This draft is perfect for the Giants because their major needs are O-line and running back. This draft is deep in both. They could be a Superbowl contender in one swoop if Eli still has it.

 

Picking a QB is at best a 50-50 chance at a good QB and you usually have to wait years to find out. Take the linemen and an RB and go for it.

1.  Eli hasn't done much of anything for two years and clearly seems to be declining.  

 

2.  Eli is 37 and his brother and Brady are the only QBs in the history of the game to have had any real success in the league after 37.  

 

3.  Eli has only two years left on his contract. 

 

4.  No way to know when they will have another opportunity this good to get a top QB.   

 

Sure seems like the Giants are set up perfectly to draft the next QB now, have him sit for a year and start in 2019.   

 

 

[The_Dude]

The Bills do NOT deserve our respect or patience. I don’t care where they get him, but they need to get Rosen, Darnold, or Mayfield. Or...or they can go to hell. 

[BadLandsMeanie]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think something like this already has happened.   That's what GMs are doing all day.   So Beane's already talked to the Giants and found out how far down the Giants are willing to move (more about that in a second).   So the Giants said "we might be interested if you could get us to 7."  So then Beane calls whoever has 7 and talks to them about whether they'd be willing to move back to 12 on draft night, and what it might cost.   So they maybe put together a tentative deal that they agree they'd be willing to finalize once the Giants are on the clock.   

 

Then everyone waits for Thursday night.   If the guy the Giants want gets taken by the Browns, they talk to the Bills and say "if you can get 7, we'll do the deal."  Bills call #7 and say "we'll do it if you'll do it."   Done deal, Bills call the Giants (they're probably actually waiting on the other line), finalize, notify the league and take their QB.  

 

However, I think that only happens if (1) the Giants don't want a QB and (2) the guy they do want (Barkely, probably) gets taken by the Browns at 1.   If the Giants want a QB, they're going to take their first choice at 2 or, if the Browns take him, they'll take their second choice.    

 

That was the point of my original post.    If there are one or two guys the Giants want at the top of the draft, the Giants aren't trading out of 2 unless they're trading to 3 or possibly 4.   So although, yes, it's possible that something could happen like you describe, I think it's very unlikely, because the Giants just aren't going to want to move that far back.   

Good pinpointing of the difference between us on this one. I think they are salivating to to move back!

If I am Gettleman I got a 2 time Superbowl winning QB though older, perhaps the best wide receiver in football (for one more year) I get me a solid line to protect the passer and run block, I get myself a top notch running back, and away we go! To me picking Barkley at #2 is Sammy Watkins all over again, but a little worse.

 

I will be extra interested in what Gettlman does to see which way he goes with it Thursday.

[RochesterRob]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

1.  Eli hasn't done much of anything for two years and clearly seems to be declining.  

 

2.  Eli is 37 and his brother and Brady are the only QBs in the history of the game to have had any real success in the league after 37.  

 

3.  Eli has only two years left on his contract. 

 

4.  No way to know when they will have another opportunity this good to get a top QB.   

 

Sure seems like the Giants are set up perfectly to draft the next QB now, have him sit for a year and start in 2019.   

 

 

  This has been my take for a long time now and Joe Webb plus Eli's remaining two years be damned.  As far as trying to trade Eli most likely feelers were put out and the offers were not even chicken feed.

[BuffaloRush]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

1.  Eli hasn't done much of anything for two years and clearly seems to be declining.  

 

2.  Eli is 37 and his brother and Brady are the only QBs in the history of the game to have had any real success in the league after 37.  

 

3.  Eli has only two years left on his contract. 

 

4.  No way to know when they will have another opportunity this good to get a top QB.   

 

Sure seems like the Giants are set up perfectly to draft the next QB now, have him sit for a year and start in 2019.   

 

 

 

You will be wrong @Shaw66.  I’ll make a bet with you that NYG wont draft a QB at #2.  I suggest a $40 gift card to Tim

Horton’s or $50 to Chic-Fil-A

[Foxx]

4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

... 2.  Eli is 37 and his brother and Brady are the only QBs in the history of the game to have had any real success in the league after 37.  ...

 

 

John Elway , Kurt Warner,  Rich Gannon, Drew Brees, Steve Young and Y.A. Tittle all say hello.

Edited April 22, 2018 by Foxx

[RochesterRob]

2 minutes ago, The_Dude said:

The Bills do NOT deserve our respect or patience. I don’t care where they get him, but they need to get Rosen, Darnold, or Mayfield. Or...or they can go to hell. 

  The Bills can't force teams to do a trade that they don't want to do.