I'm starting to think the QB Class is Overhyped

[Bing Bong]

Not throwing shade. Just wondering if I'm crazy.. was there not an EXACT thread about this 2 weeks ago

[Boca BIlls]

3 hours ago, Steve Billieve said:

Remember the legendary 2013 draft class

Ej Manuel

Geno Smith

Mike Glennon

Matt Barkley

Ryan Nassib

Tyler Wilson

Landry Jones

all in the first 4 rds.

No one talked about any of those QBs being good though.

[{::'KayCeeS::}]

I hate quoting a long OP, so I won't.

 

That being said:

 

I've always agreed with you.  And by that, I mean, I've never freaked out about these QB's.  I love Rosen,  but if we can't get good value for a trade up, f*ck him.  Because we have six picks in the first three rounds, and we got holes, amirite?

 

No team shat the bed by drafting studs in the early rounds.

 

(I can feel the haters hating on this post, but still, I think it's a rational opinion.)

 

Edited April 22, 2018 by {::'KayCeeS::}

[GunnerBill]

This is quite common. There is a draft trade window around free agency and then it quietens down until draft day. 

[Lfod]

How many of the top 4 selected QBs will go on to have memorable careers and how many end up backups or complete busts. If 3 out of the top 4 turn out to be starters and a QB drafted later turns out to be a starter then I guess it wasn't hyped enough. 

 

If only 1 out of the top 4 actually turns out to be a starter people will look back at this draft as massively over hyped. Especially if all if the QBs drafted later don't end up starting. 

Edited April 22, 2018 by Lfod

[downunderbill]

We'll know in a couple of years.

[greeneblitz]

no, your reasons are we haven't traded for the number 2 pick yet, so youre "protecting yourself" by devaluing the idea in case it doesnt happen, same reason people would now "be happy" with Lamar Jackson, calm down, nothing will happen till draft day.

[nucci]

It is over hyped only because it's discussed non stop

[The Process]

9 hours ago, Mark Vader said:

Maybe it is overhyped.

 

That being said, I want one of the top QB's in this draft.

It is over hyped..............until it's not. Then we regret not rolling the dice.

[Radar]

Definitely these quarterbacks have been over hyped by fans but I'm sure not by GM's as much. Will be interesting on draft day.

[oldmanfan]

Fans (being short for fanatics) always overhype things.  GMs (the guys that get paid to do this stuff) don't.

 

My opinion hasn't changed since the end of last season.  Let Beane and his staff do their jobs, and if they see a guy they think is the real answer move up to 2 and get him.  Or even 1.  If they think there's 2-3 guys then make a smaller move up or take him at 12.

 

There is not one guy in this class that truly stands out over the others.

[FeelingOnYouboty]

If you’re not excited about this year’s QB class you will never be excited about a QB class ever again

[HumbleAndHungry]

Quarterbacks will always be overvalued, just the nature of the position 

[atlbillsfan1975]

I am really interested to see what the Teams think on Thursday. Fans and media have all weighed in causing us to think there are 4 QB’s worthy of a top ten pick. Just like any pick the fit will help determine the outcome . One staff can have more success with certain QB than another. 

[starrymessenger]

Maybe not 1983 but it looks like a good and a very deep QB class. There are at least a couple of second tier guys who could make it, at least as solid backups - White, Lauletta, Ferguson- and maybe even develop into starters. Top 5 all going round 1.

Edited April 22, 2018 by starrymessenger

[stuvian]

I still think Lamar Jackson is the surest thing in this draft

[ChevyVanMiller]

14 hours ago, Virgil said:

As we are less than a week out from the draft, I can't help but find it strange how calm everything seems to be from a trade front.  Not just from the Bills, but from other teams as well.  Now watch, I'll post this and trades will happen immediately, but I'm starting to think that this class is either really even from a talent level or the GM's don't think the talent is as strong as everyone is making it out to be. 

 

My reasons are as follows:

 

1 - Everyone can pretty much agree that playoff success revolves around the QB.  We had a few anomalies this past season, but it's usually how it goes.  With that being said, the only team who has really jumped the gun in positioning themselves for a QB is the Jets.  The Broncos only gave Keenum 2 years, the Cardinals can't possibly see a long term future in Bradford, and the Dolphins have made the weakest commitment to Tanehill I've seen since us with TT.  The Colts are open for business again as well as the Giants.   Yet no one is jumping up?

 

If you're any of these teams, how are you not scared out of your mind that another team is going to trade up to 2, 4, or 5 and take your guy? 

 

2 - I know that it doesn't occur every year, but unless the first pick is open for trade, we usually have a strong idea of who will go first.  In fact, some teams come right out an say it.  The fact that it could be Darnold or Allen, maybe even a non-QB, is strange to me with only 5 days left.  If they are entertaining trade offers, that also says a lot.  But what's the point of keeping it close to the vest?  If you KNOW your guy is Darnold, then why hasn't it come out like in previous drafts.

 

3 - We keep hearing about these blueprints for trades between us and the Giants. Unless the Giants have 1 guy they know they want and are waiting on the Browns, why has this trade not happened?  Why aren't the Bills making it happen unless they also want to see who drops?

 

And ultimately, that's my point.  I think that all of the top 4 guys may have the same grade, and that grade may not be that far off from the Tier 2 guys.  We hear rumors about Lamar and Mason as early as 12.  If that's true, I'm starting to think that the GM's are being patient because they just don't see the different in talent and are actually waiting on non-QB's to see where they fall.

 

 

I'm wrong a lot.  But if franchise QB's are what we know them to be, then this is strange how patient people are being.  Who knows?

 Not sure if the QB class is overhyped, but I am 100% positive that threads about them on this site are. 

[Bobby Hooks]

Qb position is never overhyped. You either need one or you don’t. If you don’t have one you’re most likely not going anywhere. 

Edited April 22, 2018 by Bobby Hooks

[HOUSE]

Bucky Brooks, STOP OVER DRAFTING QUARTERBACKS !!

Former NFL player and scout Bucky Brooks knows the ins and outs of this league, providing keen insight in his notebook. The topics of this edition include:
-- How the Jason Pierre-Paul trade impacts the Bucs' and Giants' draft plans.
-- Bill Belichick's magic hand in the offseason.
-- Has time run out for Dez Bryant?
But first, a warning about passing on future stars to draft a quarterback ...
* * * * *
Excuse me for skipping ahead in this movie that's called the 2018 NFL Draft. I've seen how this story plays out, with teams disregarding their draft boards to grab quarterbacks who aren't worthy of being selected at the top. Sure, we can discuss the importance of the position and how it's a quarterback-driven league, but you'll never convince me that you should push signal-callers up the board just for the sake of landing someone who can take the snap from the center.
Now, I know this opinion diverges from those of many prominent talking heads, but based on how I was brought up in the scouting business, I believe you grade players based on their talent and potential -- regardless of position -- and rank them accordingly on the board. This is how I was taught with the Seattle Seahawks as part of a front office that included Mike Holmgren, Ted Thompson, John Schneider and Scot McCloughan -- all of whome were mentored by Ron Wolf during their time with the Green Bay Packers. (I spent parts of three seasons playing for the Packers from 1995 to '97, where I personally witnessed the philosophy play out on the field.)
Using a "BPA" (best player available) philosophy that's built on the premise of ranking and selecting the top football talents in the draft, teams shouldn't bypass good players to simply grab a prospect who fills a need. While some will take umbrage with that notion, I believe there are too many examples in previous drafts that validate my perspective.

▶ DJ's Mock Draft 2.0

For instance, in 2011, we watched four teams grab quarterbacks within the first 12 picks of a draft that was absolutely loaded at other positions. Cam Newton (No. 1 overall), Jake Locker (No. 8), Blaine Gabbert (No. 10) and Christian Ponder (No. 12) all flew off the board with premium picks, allowing non-QB-obsessed teams to scoop up Pro Bowl-caliber playmakers like linebacker Von Miller (No. 2), defensive tackle Marcell Dareus (No. 3), receiver A.J. Green (No. 4), cornerback Patrick Peterson (No. 5), receiver Julio Jones (No. 6), linebacker Aldon Smith (No. 7), offensive tackle Tyron Smith (No. 9) and defensive lineman J.J Watt (No. 11). That doesn't even include the likes of center Mike Pouncey (No. 15), defensive end Ryan Kerrigan (No. 16), offensive tackle Nate Solder (No. 17), defensive end Cameron Jordan (No. 24), running back Mark Ingram (No. 28), defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson (No. 30) and defensive end Cameron Hayward (No. 31).
Although Newton has claimed a league MVP award and did lead his franchise to a Super Bowl, the three other signal-callers failed to make their mark in the league as QB1s. This should be a cautionary tale to evaluators ignoring their grades to pick players who fill the team's biggest need. It's a recipe for disaster, and I'm afraid we could see a few teams fall into that trap this year.
"You have to be careful to avoid team needs creeping into your grades," an NFC personnel director told me. "If you're a team that grades prospects strictly on how they would fit into your roster, you can overvalue a guy in a position of need. When you do that, you're prone to missing out on good players because you're trying to fix a hole instead of picking the best player."
As the executive points out, you're more likely to overrate someone when you grade and rank prospects based on how they fit on your roster instead of evaluating their overall talent from a league-wide perspective. While some observers will suggest this is simply a case of semantics, I would tell you to grade the player based on how he's projected to play within the first few years of his career. For instance, a top-five player is expected to play at a Pro Bowl level within two to three years of entering the NFL. Sure, those are lofty expectations for any rookie, but top-five picks are supposed to be transcendent stars with skills that impact game outcomes and set the stage for the franchise going forward.
That brings me back to the 2018 draft and why I'm having a hard time with the notion that four quarterbacks will come off the board within the first 10 selections. That thought is unbelievable, given the grades that accompany the quarterbacks -- particularly when you go back and look how they rated in the fall -- and it's unfathomable when so many scouts and observers have touted a handful of position players as premium talents in this draft class.


How many times have we heard Penn State running back Saquon Barkley mentioned as the best player in the draft? Better yet, how many times have we discussed Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson, Virginia Tech linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and Ohio State cornerback Denzel Ward as elite prospects?
With that in mind, I continue to have a hard time believing quarterbacks could come off the board 1-2-3 on draft day, with so many talented players possessing top-10 grades. These guys are universally viewed as Pro Bowl-caliber talents, and bypassing them could spark regret down the road.
"You can never have enough good players," the NFC personnel director said. "If you collect a bunch of good players, you always have the option of trading some of your surpluses away to get what you need. ... I understand why everyone wants to find a franchise guy, but you better make sure that his game matches the pick. If not, you not only have missed on him, but you've missed out on other guys who could've helped your squad."
Reviewing my notes from the fall, I believe there are only two quarterbacks worthy of top-10 grades, and they don't rank within my top five overall prospects. Here's my top 10 right now:

1) Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
2) Bradley Chubb, DE, N.C. State
3) Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State
4) Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech
5) Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame
6) Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama
7) Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
8) Sam Darnold, QB, USC
9) Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia
10) Derwin James, S, Florida State


I don't mean to slight the talent or potential of Rosen and Darnold as QB1s and possibly the top two picks of the draft, but they aren't the two best players in the class. They might play the most important position on the field, but there are other position players who check off the boxes as potential Pro Bowlers within the next few years.
My beef isn't with the L.A. QBs, but rather with the notion that Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield and Wyoming's Josh Allen are possible top-five or top-10 picks. Look, I understand the desire to grab a franchise quarterback, but a team vaulting up to the top of the board for a developmental prospect is bypassing the chance to nab an instant-impact player at another position. And that's no way to draft.
JPP TRADE: How does it change draft plans for the Bucs and Giants?

On Thursday, the Giants sent Jason Pierre-Paul and a fourth-round pick (No. 102 overall) to Tampa Bay for a third- (No. 69) and fourth-round pick (No. 108). This is a move that impacts the draft strategies of both teams.
Pierre-Paul fills a huge need at defensive end for the Buccaneers as a pass-rushing specialist with 58.5 sacks and 13 forced fumbles on his career ledger. Tampa Bay tallied a league-low 22 sacks in 2017, which is problematic in a division that features Drew Brees, Cam Newton and Matt Ryan. Yes, Pierre-Paul carries a pretty hefty contract, with three years remaining on the $62 million deal he signed last offseason, but his arrival gives Bucs GM Jason Licht crucial flexibility in next month's draft. Having JPP in the fold eliminates the motivation to reach for an edge rusher at No. 7, figuring the top prospect at the position (Bradley Chubb) will be gone by then. Instead, Tampa Bay could target a defensive back (safety or corner) to upgrade a secondary that struggled to keep the ball in front of the defense a season ago.
Meanwhile, the deal gives the Giants more ammunition to fortify their roster, as they now have five picks in the first four rounds (No. 2, No. 34, No. 66, No. 69 and No. 108), plus one in the fifth (No. 139). With teams looking to move up the board to get in range for one of the quarterbacks, the Giants could take a trade at No. 2 to add some more picks ... then turn around and package their new assets in a deal to move back into range to land a couple of blue-chip players who might fall out of the top 10 due to a potential run on quarterbacks.


If the Giants stand pat, they can take one of the available "bigs" at No. 2 or pick a quarterback for the future. Honestly, I think the team's front office believes Eli Manning has a couple of good years left in the tank, and Davis Webb is a decent developmental option at the moment. If my hunch is correct, the Giants could target Bradley Chubb as their pick. The Giants are switching to a base 3-4 defense under new coordinator James Bettcher, but the scheme is adaptable enough to fit Chubb into an early-down role as an edge player in an over/under front. And every defense is multiple these days anyway, with NFL teams aligning in sub-package formations on about 70 percent of their defensive snaps. In nickel personnel, Chubb would have the opportunity to play as a defensive end in a four-man front.
If the Giants elect to focus on the offense -- but still not take a quarterback -- the decision likely comes down to Saquon Barkley or Quenton Nelson. Although the positional value of each player makes some evaluators queasy, either guy would upgrade the Giants' offense significantly as a Day 1 starter. Whether it's Barkley playing behind No. 10 as a runner/receiver with Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram occupying defenders on the outside, or Nelson joining a rebuilt offensive line with Nate Solder playing as the franchise left tackle, Big Blue's offense would be in much better shape.
THREE AND OUT: Quick takes on big developments across the league

1) The Patriots' secret sauce. Say what you will about the New England Patriots' underwhelming draft record, but it is hard to dispute their success as bargain hunters on the free-agent/trade market. Bill Belichick and Co. repeatedly knock it out of the park with inexpensive additions that become major factors. Guys like Randy Moss, Corey Dillon, Wes Welker and Ted Washington came to New England via trade and provided the Patriots with huge returns. In addition, we've seen Belichick coax significant contributions from free-agent signees like Rodney Harrison, Mike Vrabel and Antowain Smith. In more recent years, we've watched the Patriots add Brandin Cooks, Eric Rowe, Chris Hogan and others as low-risk trade acquisitions or value-based free-agent signings.
While some observers have focused on this offseason's free-agent exodus -- with Dion Lewis, Nate Solder and Danny Amendola leaving Foxboro for greener ($$$) pastures -- I believe we should pay closer attention to how the Patriots are quietly retooling a championship-caliber roster with a bunch of intriguing pickups from the bargain bin.
The team acquired Danny Shelton, Cordarrelle Patterson and Jason McCourty via trade, while adding Adrian Clayborn and Jeremy Hill as value-priced free agents. The newbies not only upgrade the Patriots' overall talent and athleticism, but they do so on budget deals that keep New England below the salary-cap ceiling.
"This is how the Patriots have done business for years," the aforementioned NFC personnel director told me. "They are the best at identifying low-priced free agents and putting them in roles that play to their strengths as players. ... Look at how guys perform before and after they play in New England. Belichick knows how to put players in a position to succeed."


That's the trick. Belichick not only knows exactly what he's looking for when evaluating veterans, but he knows how to use them in his system. The seven-time Super Bowl winner (as an assistant and head coach) is one of the best NFL evaluators in the business, and he knows how to take advantage of his players' skills. Notice how I called him one of the best NFL evaluators. I'm referring to his remarkable ability to evaluate pros and put them in spotlight positions on the field. Belichick can spot a part-time player or underachiever in another system and create a plan to make that guy an all-star in New England.
"Scouting pros is an 'apples to apples' evaluation," the NFC personnel director said. "It's all about seeing what a player can do -- and determine how his skills would play in your system. When you're looking at college guys, it's more of a projection because you really don't know how they will play as pros. You think you know what you're going to get from a young player, but there are so many variables in play. That's why it's so hard hit on college kids."
Given the challenge of nailing draft picks, the Patriots should be commended for winning on the back end with former top picks who might've underperformed with their initial teams. Part of their success could stem from Belichick's extensive research of top prospects at pre-draft workouts and pro days. For instance, we saw the video clip of the Patriots' head coach working with Bradley Chubb at N.C. State's pro day earlier this week. Although the Patriots have virtually no shot of landing the pass-rushing specialist, Belichick put him through the paces at a workout to see how well he understood reading blocks at the line of scrimmage. For the casual observer, the brief exchange appeared to be another coach conducting some busy work. But astute personnel men see that exercise as Belichick gathering more intel on a player who could cross his path years down the line.
"People that work with him (Belichick) rave about his recall when it comes to players," the NFC personnel director said. "He remembers little details about players and that information helps him when those names come up in trades or free agency."
2) Suh + Donald = a potential nightmare for opponents. When word spread across the NFL Media newsroom that Ndamukong Suh was seriously considering the Los Angeles Rams as a potential destination, I immediately tweeted out that the perennial Pro Bowler and Aaron Donald would give the #MobSquad the best defensive tackle duo in football.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...llout-and-more

[Bobby Hooks]

9 minutes ago, stuvian said:

I still think Lamar Jackson is the surest thing in this draft

That’s certainly an opinion. 

1 hour ago, Finkle Is Einhorn said:

Quarterbacks will always be overvalued, just the nature of the position 

I don’t think it’s a case of “overvalued”, they’re valued the way they should be. You have to have a good one to go anywhere. 

 

The only reason it seems that way is because we need one. I’m sure the pats and packers don’t think qbs are overvalued. 

Edited April 22, 2018 by Bobby Hooks