I'm starting to think the QB Class is Overhyped

[Zerovoltz]

It's interesting how the media has so much influence on these things.  Let's examine last year.  That QB class wasn't hyped during the lead up to the draft, and it wasn't hyped the season before as being a class to look forward to.  The media, it would seem to me, when they come to a consensus on something, they tend to roll with it.  Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson and Kizer weren't good according to the media and the media maintained that message for the most part.  Part of that narrative was that this class was supposed to be very good...and the media has maintained that.  From an evaluation standpoint, if you looked at the 3 first round guys from last year and the first round projected guys this year....is that REALLY the case?  Josh Allen is a better prospect than Pat Mahomes?  (of course I am biased to Mahomes, but come on.) 

 

  

[Seanbillsfan2206]

12 minutes ago, mead107 said:

That’s why Riley Ferguson is the best bet in the draft. 

???????

[Steve Billieve]

Remember the legendary 2013 draft class

Ej Manuel

Geno Smith

Mike Glennon

Matt Barkley

Ryan Nassib

Tyler Wilson

Landry Jones

all in the first 4 rds.

[BobbyC81]

 

Regarding your 2nd item, "It's the Browns!!"

[Captain Murica]

Just now, Steve Billieve said:

Remember the legendary 2013 draft class

Ej Manuel

Geno Smith

Mike Glennon

Matt Barkley

Ryan Nassib

Tyler Wilson

Landry Jones

all in the first 4 rds.

 

Threw up in my mouth a little... 

[White Linen]

I don't think the class is over hyped because there's slow trade activity.   That doesn't make any sense to me.  4 of the top 5 picks could be QB so maybe they don't want to trade their pick.  The second pick could want to see which QB goes first before they say they don't want one and not even then makes it probable they don't want to stay at 2.  4th pick may not want to trade out.  The 5th pick may want to see which QB's are still there.  

 

I think the exact opposite - no trade activity prior to the draft is exactly what I expected.  

[Inigo Montoya]

This year is absolutely atypical of a regular off season, and it's a great one if you are a franchise in need of a QB.

 

It's not just the number of solid QB draft prospects...

Darnold

Mayfield

Allen

Rosen

Rudolph

Jackson

 

But look at the free agent QBs that were available this year.  I don't ever remember so many viable QBs hitting the free agent market in one year;

Cousins

Keenum

Bradford

McCarron

Bridgewater

McCown

Tyrod (not a free agent but traded)

Foles (not a free agent but available for trade)

 

I don't see this happening again for a long time.

[longtimebillsfan]

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

As we are less than a week out from the draft, I can't help but find it strange how calm everything seems to be from a trade front.  Not just from the Bills, but from other teams as well.  Now watch, I'll post this and trades will happen immediately, but I'm starting to think that this class is either really even from a talent level or the GM's don't think the talent is as strong as everyone is making it out to be. 

 

My reasons are as follows:

 

1 - Everyone can pretty much agree that playoff success revolves around the QB.  We had a few anomalies this past season, but it's usually how it goes.  With that being said, the only team who has really jumped the gun in positioning themselves for a QB is the Jets.  The Broncos only gave Keenum 2 years, the Cardinals can't possibly see a long term future in Bradford, and the Dolphins have made the weakest commitment to Tanehill I've seen since us with TT.  The Colts are open for business again as well as the Giants.   Yet no one is jumping up?

 

If you're any of these teams, how are you not scared out of your mind that another team is going to trade up to 2, 4, or 5 and take your guy? 

 

2 - I know that it doesn't occur every year, but unless the first pick is open for trade, we usually have a strong idea of who will go first.  In fact, some teams come right out an say it.  The fact that it could be Darnold or Allen, maybe even a non-QB, is strange to me with only 5 days left.  If they are entertaining trade offers, that also says a lot.  But what's the point of keeping it close to the vest?  If you KNOW your guy is Darnold, then why hasn't it come out like in previous drafts.

 

3 - We keep hearing about these blueprints for trades between us and the Giants. Unless the Giants have 1 guy they know they want and are waiting on the Browns, why has this trade not happened?  Why aren't the Bills making it happen unless they also want to see who drops?

 

And ultimately, that's my point.  I think that all of the top 4 guys may have the same grade, and that grade may not be that far off from the Tier 2 guys.  We hear rumors about Lamar and Mason as early as 12.  If that's true, I'm starting to think that the GM's are being patient because they just don't see the different in talent and are actually waiting on non-QB's to see where they fall.

 

 

I'm wrong a lot.  But if franchise QB's are what we know them to be, then this is strange how patient people are being.  Who knows?

Very good analysis.  I share your concerns.

[ghostwriter]

42 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said:

...and i would like to point out that, if teams like the pats or pitt see rudolph as a replacement to their all pro qbs, does that mean they are reaching...or dumpster diving or just plain stupid. i didn't think so...take him at 12, keep the picks.

 

if the heat gets turned up , trade with oakland  and make sure you get him.  a.j. can turn into a playoff qb....and i think it will be such. we can afford to let a qb sit until such time we have a major trade asset to have to deal with. wouldn't that be a change?

I agree, I don't get why everybody is so concerned, it would take a fool to botch the situation.

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, NewDayBills said:

Baker Mayfield if he drops (which I think he will), otherwise go all in on Mason Rudolph. We are an interior lineman away from having a solid OL. We have a running game and dare I say it Kelvin Benjamin is a nice #1 and excellent possession guy for a young rookie. Sure we could use a burner but we can get that easily in the draft.

 

Defense in my mind needs a starting LB and depth at corner and DT, all of which should be a cake walk for Beane.

 

The key is not to flinch, understand that if we miss out on the top 4, keep the picks and go all in on Rudolph. People complain about Rudolph but if we don't take him, New England will at 23.

 

No. If we miss the top 4, go for Jackson.

 

I still consider Jackson in the top 4, not Allen.

[Fan boy '92]

You're wrong. This draft has potential to be the best since 1983.  No offense, but your reasoning is all hearsay. Stay the course, Trust the process, you'll like the result.

[#34fan]

I think there's more franchise-potential kids coming out NEXT year!... And they're totally under-hyped.

 

Sexing-up this year's QB crop helps the NFL's bottom line... That's why I take everything Jeremiah, and Brooks say with a grain of salt.

[Da webster guy]

as much as i want a top qb pick, im really hoping we don't give up next year's first to get there.   We might not be very good at qb this season, with the rookie and AJ.  Next years pick could be a top five. 

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, Virgil said:

As we are less than a week out from the draft, I can't help but find it strange how calm everything seems to be from a trade front.  Not just from the Bills, but from other teams as well.  Now watch, I'll post this and trades will happen immediately, but I'm starting to think that this class is either really even from a talent level or the GM's don't think the talent is as strong as everyone is making it out to be. 

 

My reasons are as follows:

 

1 - Everyone can pretty much agree that playoff success revolves around the QB.  We had a few anomalies this past season, but it's usually how it goes.  With that being said, the only team who has really jumped the gun in positioning themselves for a QB is the Jets.  The Broncos only gave Keenum 2 years, the Cardinals can't possibly see a long term future in Bradford, and the Dolphins have made the weakest commitment to Tanehill I've seen since us with TT.  The Colts are open for business again as well as the Giants.   Yet no one is jumping up?

 

If you're any of these teams, how are you not scared out of your mind that another team is going to trade up to 2, 4, or 5 and take your guy? 

 

2 - I know that it doesn't occur every year, but unless the first pick is open for trade, we usually have a strong idea of who will go first.  In fact, some teams come right out an say it.  The fact that it could be Darnold or Allen, maybe even a non-QB, is strange to me with only 5 days left.  If they are entertaining trade offers, that also says a lot.  But what's the point of keeping it close to the vest?  If you KNOW your guy is Darnold, then why hasn't it come out like in previous drafts.

 

3 - We keep hearing about these blueprints for trades between us and the Giants. Unless the Giants have 1 guy they know they want and are waiting on the Browns, why has this trade not happened?  Why aren't the Bills making it happen unless they also want to see who drops?

 

And ultimately, that's my point.  I think that all of the top 4 guys may have the same grade, and that grade may not be that far off from the Tier 2 guys.  We hear rumors about Lamar and Mason as early as 12.  If that's true, I'm starting to think that the GM's are being patient because they just don't see the different in talent and are actually waiting on non-QB's to see where they fall.

 

 

I'm wrong a lot.  But if franchise QB's are what we know them to be, then this is strange how patient people are being.  Who knows?

Why would the Browns gain in doing so? 

 

No team should ever show their cards imo.  It just make any sense to do so.  Especially when you’re also picking 4.  Doing so only gives the other teams an advantage, albeit small. 

[John from Riverside]

THis qb class has been hyped WELL before this year......Darnold.....Rosen....Mayfield all considered very good prospects well before this year.

 

Lamar Jackson?   Great college production but didnt really start following him until I started qb evaluation.....I actually heard more about Mason Rudolph

 

I think there is going to be as many as 4 solid starters to franchise qbs come out of this draft

 

.......and now is the time to get one

[LABILLBACKER]

I'm so torn about thur....I want a great qb, but who is the least com..bustable?...we have so many holes and if we trade up to 2 we'll lose half our draft and maybe even next years 1st? Should we stay put and take Rudolph @ 12? Maybe....keep all our picks and start filling holes. I still believe Darnold is the ONLY qb worthy of dealing it all to NYG. God help us.....

[Virgil]

4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Why would the Browns gain in doing so? 

 

No team should ever show their cards imo.  It just make any sense to do so.  Especially when you’re also picking 4.  Doing so only gives the other teams an advantage, albeit small. 

 

Because if it’s a done deal, what’s it matter?  You only worry about showing your hand if you have something else on your mind. 

 

But yes, there’s no reason either besides letting the player know early he’s going to be the #1 pick

[Boatdrinks]

The QB class IS overhyped by nature ,  as the probability of a bust at that position is higher than others. Yet it is the most important position on the field. Therefore, everyone wants to talk about the QBs. So pretty much every QB class since ' 83 hasn't lived up to the hype. '04 is looking pretty good, but that's still 2 in 35 years. Odds are that one or two of the highly ranked guys will be good to great, the rest will be varying degrees of bust. Maybe one from the second tier will surprise. That's kind of how it's gone with QBs over the years. Yes, I absolutely want the Bills to move up and get one of the top prospects regardless. 

Edited April 22, 2018 by Boatdrinks

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, Virgil said:

As we are less than a week out from the draft, I can't help but find it strange how calm everything seems to be from a trade front.  Not just from the Bills, but from other teams as well.  Now watch, I'll post this and trades will happen immediately, but I'm starting to think that this class is either really even from a talent level or the GM's don't think the talent is as strong as everyone is making it out to be. 

 

My reasons are as follows:

 

1 - Everyone can pretty much agree that playoff success revolves around the QB.  We had a few anomalies this past season, but it's usually how it goes.  With that being said, the only team who has really jumped the gun in positioning themselves for a QB is the Jets.  The Broncos only gave Keenum 2 years, the Cardinals can't possibly see a long term future in Bradford, and the Dolphins have made the weakest commitment to Tanehill I've seen since us with TT.  The Colts are open for business again as well as the Giants.   Yet no one is jumping up?

 

If you're any of these teams, how are you not scared out of your mind that another team is going to trade up to 2, 4, or 5 and take your guy? 

 

2 - I know that it doesn't occur every year, but unless the first pick is open for trade, we usually have a strong idea of who will go first.  In fact, some teams come right out an say it.  The fact that it could be Darnold or Allen, maybe even a non-QB, is strange to me with only 5 days left.  If they are entertaining trade offers, that also says a lot.  But what's the point of keeping it close to the vest?  If you KNOW your guy is Darnold, then why hasn't it come out like in previous drafts.

 

3 - We keep hearing about these blueprints for trades between us and the Giants. Unless the Giants have 1 guy they know they want and are waiting on the Browns, why has this trade not happened?  Why aren't the Bills making it happen unless they also want to see who drops?

 

And ultimately, that's my point.  I think that all of the top 4 guys may have the same grade, and that grade may not be that far off from the Tier 2 guys.  We hear rumors about Lamar and Mason as early as 12.  If that's true, I'm starting to think that the GM's are being patient because they just don't see the different in talent and are actually waiting on non-QB's to see where they fall.

 

It seems to me your logic is a little bit self-contradictory. 

 

If every team thinks the QB talent is level, then wouldn't teams want to make trades ASAP to assure their spot?  And since the talent is level, it wouldn't make that much difference to a team if they're drafting at #5 or #6 so no chance of a bidding war to push up the price.  So we should see trades.

 

OTOH, if the talent is not level to the individual teams who would be making the trade but instead, they have strong preferences, why would they want to arrange a trade now?

If you really want Allen, and you think the Browns might select him #1, makes no sense to trade up to #2.    From the other side of the fence, if you're not 100% sure what the teams ahead of you will do, you might not want to MAKE a trade until you do.  Maybe no one will draft Chubb or Barkley and they can be drafted at #5.

 

I think this QB class is over-hyped - not that there aren't talented guys who are likely to become good NFL QB, but all the talk about 6 QB being off the board by Pick #10 or whatever it is.  It could happen, but it would be unprecedented, and the last draft where a bunch of QB went pretty high, it didn't work out so well.  It seems in that class, QB draft position was driven more by team need than by QB talent.

 

I see that potentially happening here - I think a couple of guys who should be 2nd round or possibly very late 1st round picks, likely to go higher in the 1st.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Bfanlc]

What's crazy is these guys have done little to nothing their entire career and they are about to make millions based on hype/need.