I'm starting to think the QB Class is Overhyped

[Virgil]

As we are less than a week out from the draft, I can't help but find it strange how calm everything seems to be from a trade front.  Not just from the Bills, but from other teams as well.  Now watch, I'll post this and trades will happen immediately, but I'm starting to think that this class is either really even from a talent level or the GM's don't think the talent is as strong as everyone is making it out to be. 

 

My reasons are as follows:

 

1 - Everyone can pretty much agree that playoff success revolves around the QB.  We had a few anomalies this past season, but it's usually how it goes.  With that being said, the only team who has really jumped the gun in positioning themselves for a QB is the Jets.  The Broncos only gave Keenum 2 years, the Cardinals can't possibly see a long term future in Bradford, and the Dolphins have made the weakest commitment to Tanehill I've seen since us with TT.  The Colts are open for business again as well as the Giants.   Yet no one is jumping up?

 

If you're any of these teams, how are you not scared out of your mind that another team is going to trade up to 2, 4, or 5 and take your guy? 

 

2 - I know that it doesn't occur every year, but unless the first pick is open for trade, we usually have a strong idea of who will go first.  In fact, some teams come right out an say it.  The fact that it could be Darnold or Allen, maybe even a non-QB, is strange to me with only 5 days left.  If they are entertaining trade offers, that also says a lot.  But what's the point of keeping it close to the vest?  If you KNOW your guy is Darnold, then why hasn't it come out like in previous drafts.

 

3 - We keep hearing about these blueprints for trades between us and the Giants. Unless the Giants have 1 guy they know they want and are waiting on the Browns, why has this trade not happened?  Why aren't the Bills making it happen unless they also want to see who drops?

 

And ultimately, that's my point.  I think that all of the top 4 guys may have the same grade, and that grade may not be that far off from the Tier 2 guys.  We hear rumors about Lamar and Mason as early as 12.  If that's true, I'm starting to think that the GM's are being patient because they just don't see the different in talent and are actually waiting on non-QB's to see where they fall.

 

 

I'm wrong a lot.  But if franchise QB's are what we know them to be, then this is strange how patient people are being.  Who knows?

Edited April 22, 2018 by Virgil

[Roundybout]

This very well could be, but it could also be a big game of chicken. Who is going to flinch first and give up a barrel of picks? Jets already broke. Most of the trades will probably happen Thursday night. 

[boyst]

I'm in the same camp but evidently quality doesn't matter when you absolutely need a QB and don't think two new OL, a WR, DT or two, a pair of LB's or depth at TE and DB

 

[3rdand12]

of course it is Virgil

[ghostwriter]

Baker Mayfield if he drops (which I think he will), otherwise go all in on Mason Rudolph. We are an interior lineman away from having a solid OL. We have a running game and dare I say it Kelvin Benjamin is a nice #1 and excellent possession guy for a young rookie. Sure we could use a burner but we can get that easily in the draft.

 

Defense in my mind needs a starting LB and depth at corner and DT, all of which should be a cake walk for Beane.

 

The key is not to flinch, understand that if we miss out on the top 4, keep the picks and go all in on Rudolph. People complain about Rudolph but if we don't take him, New England will at 23.

[thebandit27]

It is and it isn't 

 

The thing is, when you draft a QB, all you're really betting on is that he has the potential to be a franchise guy.

 

Like it or not, the top 5 in this class all fall into that category, albeit to varying degrees and with varying likelihoods

Edited April 22, 2018 by thebandit27

[Virgil]

14 minutes ago, BillsEnthusiast said:

This very well could be, but it could also be a big game of chicken. Who is going to flinch first and give up a barrel of picks? Jets already broke. Most of the trades will probably happen Thursday night. 

 

When jobs and franchises are on the line, I just don’t know how anyone can afford to play chicken. You have a 3 year window or less. 

 

Especially when next years class seems to be really thin. 

Edited April 22, 2018 by Virgil

[SinceThe70s]

I think what's odd about this year is how many pre-draft trades involving first rounders have already been made. That's not the norm, is it?  I still expect a few more on Thursday.

[JohnC]

45 minutes ago, Virgil said:

As we are less than a week out from the draft, I can't help but find it strange how calm everything seems to be from a trade front.  Not just from the Bills, but from other teams as well.  Now watch, I'll post this and trades will happen immediately, but I'm starting to think that this class is either really even from a talent level or the GM's don't think the talent is as strong as everyone is making it out to be. 

 

My reasons are as follows:

 

1 - Everyone can pretty much agree that playoff success revolves around the QB.  We had a few anomalies this past season, but it's usually how it goes.  With that being said, the only team who has really jumped the gun in positioning themselves for a QB is the Jets.  The Broncos only gave Keenum 2 years, the Cardinals can't possibly see a long term future in Bradford, and the Dolphins have made the weakest commitment to Tanehill I've seen since us with TT.  The Colts are open for business again as well as the Giants.   Yet no one is jumping up?

 

If you're any of these teams, how are you not scared out of your mind that another team is going to trade up to 2, 4, or 5 and take your guy? 

 

2 - I know that it doesn't occur every year, but unless the first pick is open for trade, we usually have a strong idea of who will go first.  In fact, some teams come right out an say it.  The fact that it could be Darnold or Allen, maybe even a non-QB, is strange to me with only 5 days left.  If they are entertaining trade offers, that also says a lot.  But what's the point of keeping it close to the vest?  If you KNOW your guy is Darnold, then why hasn't it come out like in previous drafts.

 

3 - We keep hearing about these blueprints for trades between us and the Giants. Unless the Giants have 1 guy they know they want and are waiting on the Browns, why has this trade not happened?  Why aren't the Bills making it happen unless they also want to see who drops?

 

And ultimately, that's my point.  I think that all of the top 4 guys may have the same grade, and that grade may not be that far off from the Tier 2 guys.  We hear rumors about Lamar and Mason as early as 12.  If that's true, I'm starting to think that the GM's are being patient because they just don't see the different in talent and are actually waiting on non-QB's to see where they fall.

 

 

I'm wrong a lot.  But if franchise QB's are what we know them to be, then this is strange how patient people are being.  Who knows?

At this period of time there is a good reason why  teams aren't making deals just prior to the draft: It isn't a smart thing to do. If a team such as Buffalo is targeting a particular player why make a deal if you are not sure that that player will be on the board. If there are going to be deals it will happen on the day of the draft as it is unfolding. 

 

There is another reason why deals aren't being consummated prior to the draft. The teams we will deal with are also considering who is available and what are their options. What we consider a good offer might not suit what they have planned. As an example if the player they covet is available they won't deal but if the player they covet is already taken then they will consider an offer for a deal. They won't know who will or not be available until the draft is in progress. 

 

What teams are doing now are making exploratory overtures and seeing if the teams are interested. I'm confident that Buffalo has talked to all the teams that are drafting in front of them and many drafting after them. My expectation is that when the draft begins there will be a flurry of activity. 

Edited April 22, 2018 by JohnC

[Mark Vader]

Maybe it is overhyped.

 

That being said, I want one of the top QB's in this draft.

[billsredneck1]

26 minutes ago, NewDayBills said:

Baker Mayfield if he drops (which I think he will), otherwise go all in on Mason Rudolph. We are an interior lineman away from having a solid OL. We have a running game and dare I say it Kelvin Benjamin is a nice #1 and excellent possession guy for a young rookie. Sure we could use a burner but we can get that easily in the draft.

 

Defense in my mind needs a starting LB and depth at corner and DT, all of which should be a cake walk for Beane.

 

The key is not to flinch, understand that if we miss out on the top 4, keep the picks and go all in on Rudolph. People complain about Rudolph but if we don't take him, New England will at 23.

...and i would like to point out that, if teams like the pats or pitt see rudolph as a replacement to their all pro qbs, does that mean they are reaching...or dumpster diving or just plain stupid. i didn't think so...take him at 12, keep the picks.

 

if the heat gets turned up , trade with oakland  and make sure you get him.  a.j. can turn into a playoff qb....and i think it will be such. we can afford to let a qb sit until such time we have a major trade asset to have to deal with. wouldn't that be a change?

Edited April 22, 2018 by billsredneck1

[jahnyc]

Of course this group of QBs is over-hyped.  The NFL and all of the pundits need to create buzz around the draft to increase the level of attention and interest.  Another factor is the belief that next year's crop of QBs in the draft will not be as strong.  

 

I do think this is a talented group, but three of the four (Allen, Rosen and Darnold) had at best mediocre final college seasons.  I think this has created some uncertainty around their potential as franchise quarterbacks (at least compared to how they were thought of at the beginning of the college season).  

 

I would not make anything out of the lack of trades to move up in the draft to the top five (other than the Jets).  Teams that have interest in doing so want to be strategic and move up only to the extent necessary.  Plus no team wants to show their hand too early such that another team knows in advance exactly what they will need to do to get the player they want in the draft.

 

 

[Meh.]

32 minutes ago, Virgil said:

As we are less than a week out from the draft, I can't help but find it strange how calm everything seems to be from a trade front.  Not just from the Bills, but from other teams as well.  Now watch, I'll post this and trades will happen immediately, but I'm starting to think that this class is either really even from a talent level or the GM's don't think the talent is as strong as everyone is making it out to be. 

 

My reasons are as follows:

 

1 - Everyone can pretty much agree that playoff success revolves around the QB.  We had a few anomalies this past season, but it's usually how it goes.  With that being said, the only team who has really jumped the gun in positioning themselves for a QB is the Jets.  The Broncos only gave Keenum 2 years, the Cardinals can't possibly see a long term future in Bradford, and the Dolphins have made the weakest commitment to Tanehill I've seen since us with TT.  The Colts are open for business again as well as the Giants.   Yet no one is jumping up?

 

If you're any of these teams, how are you not scared out of your mind that another team is going to trade up to 2, 4, or 5 and take your guy? 

 

2 - I know that it doesn't occur every year, but unless the first pick is open for trade, we usually have a strong idea of who will go first.  In fact, some teams come right out an say it.  The fact that it could be Darnold or Allen, maybe even a non-QB, is strange to me with only 5 days left.  If they are entertaining trade offers, that also says a lot.  But what's the point of keeping it close to the vest?  If you KNOW your guy is Darnold, then why hasn't it come out like in previous drafts.

 

3 - We keep hearing about these blueprints for trades between us and the Giants. Unless the Giants have 1 guy they know they want and are waiting on the Browns, why has this trade not happened?  Why aren't the Bills making it happen unless they also want to see who drops?

 

And ultimately, that's my point.  I think that all of the top 4 guys may have the same grade, and that grade may not be that far off from the Tier 2 guys.  We hear rumors about Lamar and Mason as early as 12.  If that's true, I'm starting to think that the GM's are being patient because they just don't see the different in talent and are actually waiting on non-QB's to see where they fall.

 

 

I'm wrong a lot.  But if franchise QB's are what we know them to be, then this is strange how patient people are being.  Who knows?

If the Giants trade rumors are true then I wouldn’t want them pulling the trigger on it until the browns’ first pick is in. Don’t give anyone the opportunity to jump up to one, like say the jets trading up from three to get ahead of us. I’m sure the browns would be happy with picks 3 and 4 and the haul they’d get from NY. If Gettleman is Beane’s BFF then I’d say maybe it’s true that a deal is “in place” with both sides agreeing to shut up about it until the big night. Not a huge trade up fan but if they’re going to do it they should get their ducks in a row but hold off on making it public until they absolutely have to.

[mead107]

That’s why Riley Ferguson is the best bet in the draft. 

[B Fan in LA]

 

I agree that this year seems different than most previous years with regard to a sudden stop of trade activity.

But there are quite a few unsigned vets hanging around, and lot's of need at positions other than QB.

 

I expect a flurry of trades on Thursday, and hope we don't give up our many picks on a wish and a prayer.

 

Darnold might be the next Elway, and Rosen might be the next Joe Montana, but I don't think Josh Allen will be the next Rothlesberger,

and I don't think Mayfield is the next Drew Brees.

 

I'm kind of hoping we don't take a QB and see what MaCarron can do with a rebuilt OL.

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Starting? Hype has been stoooopid

[Captain Murica]

We gotta shoot our shot. 

 

That being said, I’ve stopped looking at mock drafts. This pre-draft season has been insane to the point my head hurts. The nfl should really think about moving the draft up earlier and before the schedule release. 

Edited April 22, 2018 by Captain Murica

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Today was incredibly quiet!

 

Calm before the storm

[Woodman19]

Most trades happen on draft day since many teams have lots of "if xxx is available" scenarios that predicate trades.

[Hebert19]

Agree.  Above average doesn't mean franchise.