D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted April 21, 2018 Posted April 21, 2018 (edited) https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-way-everybody-measures-nfl-schedule-strength-its-wrong/ The good news is the Bills schedule is virtually neutral. Edited April 21, 2018 by horned dogs
LeGOATski Posted April 21, 2018 Posted April 21, 2018 Yeah, this has to be reiterated every off-season. Regardless, we still generally know who the tough teams are...
White Linen Posted April 21, 2018 Posted April 21, 2018 This guy is taking strength of schedule way too seriously and is probably hoping to reach the more intelligent (most involved) fans. Problem is, the more involved fan already understands the flaws in these guesses based on SOS and this doesn't solve it. It doesn't even help solve it, IMO. 1
thurst44 Posted April 21, 2018 Posted April 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, White Linen said: This guy is taking strength of schedule way too seriously and is probably hoping to reach the more intelligent (most involved) fans. Problem is, the more involved fan already understands the flaws in these guesses based on SOS and this doesn't solve it. It doesn't even help solve it, IMO. Furthermore, it might go even deeper, as the 2017 Bills might be a total outlier, as most of their point differential and stats weakness stems from a very singular three-game stretch. Yes, those three games happened, but it seems significant that the team played well before and after, and that the true story of what it implies for next year was a bit more complex than the stats tell. 1
row_33 Posted April 21, 2018 Posted April 21, 2018 (edited) 13 minutes ago, White Linen said: This guy is taking strength of schedule way too seriously and is probably hoping to reach the more intelligent (most involved) fans. Problem is, the more involved fan already understands the flaws in these guesses based on SOS and this doesn't solve it. It doesn't even help solve it, IMO. It bailed out the Bills to squeak in, so SOS is very important haven’t read it, and won’t, but the Bills should have been punished in SOS for struggling against a Miami that tanked that last game with a scrub QB Edited April 21, 2018 by row_33
Saxum Posted April 21, 2018 Posted April 21, 2018 The Bills were excellent at takeaways last year and I do not see this factored into formula. Without them they do not make playoffs so it is no wonder that they expected vs achieved do not match based on this algorithm. Of course they could have included the bashers from last (and every year) and Bills would have been competing for #1 player in NFL.
The Frankish Reich Posted April 21, 2018 Posted April 21, 2018 14 minutes ago, Limeaid said: The Bills were excellent at takeaways last year and I do not see this factored into formula. Without them they do not make playoffs so it is no wonder that they expected vs achieved do not match based on this algorithm. Of course they could have included the bashers from last (and every year) and Bills would have been competing for #1 player in NFL. Turnover differential is one of the classic largely "non-repeatable" luck-type things in the NFL. As the stat-heads would put it, it isn't a reflection of true talent level. We saw a little of that last year as the Bills' fortunes changed when the turnovers stopped coming.
Bangarang Posted April 21, 2018 Posted April 21, 2018 I find it ridiculous to even care about such a thing.
MakeBuffaloGreatAgain Posted April 21, 2018 Posted April 21, 2018 I thought it was a different view on the Son Of Sam. Was like,”alright! Let’s see where this is going!” I’m not mad, I am just disappointed.
Saxum Posted April 23, 2018 Posted April 23, 2018 On 4/21/2018 at 11:27 AM, The Frankish Reich said: Turnover differential is one of the classic largely "non-repeatable" luck-type things in the NFL. As the stat-heads would put it, it isn't a reflection of true talent level. We saw a little of that last year as the Bills' fortunes changed when the turnovers stopped coming. Turnovers are NOT entirely luck. Bills devoted practice to it and were aggressive it trying to force them. Yes they did not always have success but it is a factor in differential between "predicted" and actual record.
Mango Posted April 23, 2018 Posted April 23, 2018 I don’t read this so much as a drop, but more regressing towards the mean for this team. I am as happy as anybody else about breaking the playoff streak, but the 2017 wasn’t really very good. Easily could have been a 6 win season.
wagon127 Posted April 23, 2018 Posted April 23, 2018 The reason we got in over Baltimore, was because they played the browns, and we didn't. We also played the toughest NFC division and beat one of the playoff teams. Strength of schedule can hurt you if its "too easy." Also, every single NFL fan assumes every team on their schedule will be better than they were last year. Most people assume their own team will be worse. The truth is, so much fluctuates that its impossible to predict. Keep in mind, we will have 3 quarterbacks who barely have been tested at the NFL level yet. I don't know how anybody would even bother to predict how the season will go. The Bills are probably one of the biggest question marks as far as how good we will be.
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted April 23, 2018 Posted April 23, 2018 (edited) 4 hours ago, Domdab99 said: strength of schedule is meaningless ...would be interesting to see an analytical showing pre-season SOS projections versus where things ended up after the season.........I'm certain (COUGH) the "pundits" have taken cuts/releases, new signings, injuries, benchings, weather, deflated bawls, etc fully into account...... Edited April 23, 2018 by OldTimeAFLGuy
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