Bills the worst team in the NFL this season?

[BarleyNY]

1 minute ago, thurst44 said:

I think you may have wandered away from the point here. His argument was that we don't know what next year will bring for any team, so until anyone proves otherwise, we are what our record says we are. Ultimately, the Bills are the biggest of question marks, because the defense was dominant at its best (its stats were mostly obliterated during the three week stretch in which it fell apart) and we don't know what the QB or O-Line situation will be. Plus, from what we've seen of this organization and this administration, there will be many changes between now and early September.

That being said, I don't really see where our talent level is that far from where we started last year, nor do I see how the Raiders improved from the bellyflop of last year (and we beat them handily), so I don't particularly buy that one, and feel like the Chargers are the most overrated team in the league for their "potential." Chiefs did a worse mid-season nosedive than we did. 

 

Man do I hate the “who knows what will happen until the games are played?” arguement.  It’s reasonable t9 make educated guesses that can then be argued.  The alternative is never to speculate about anything. 

[formerlyofCtown]

8 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

So someone named Mike Clay says, as of 4/20/2018 that the Bills will be the worst team in the league next season with a record of 2-14.

 

Who gives a flying F?

 

 

Smoke screen to help us trade up.

[Epstein's Mother]

40 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

 

He's got the Dolphins at 2-14 and the Jets at 4-12.  Apparently he's got the Bills splitting with these 2 teams and running the table in reverse on the rest of their schedule?

Edited April 21, 2018 by Epstein's Mother

[SinceThe70s]

??

[SouthNYfan]

19 minutes ago, thurst44 said:

I think you may have wandered away from the point here. His argument was that we don't know what next year will bring for any team, so until anyone proves otherwise, we are what our record says we are. Ultimately, the Bills are the biggest of question marks, because the defense was dominant at its best (its stats were mostly obliterated during the three week stretch in which it fell apart) and we don't know what the QB or O-Line situation will be. Plus, from what we've seen of this organization and this administration, there will be many changes between now and early September.

That being said, I don't really see where our talent level is that far from where we started last year, nor do I see how the Raiders improved from the bellyflop of last year (and we beat them handily), so I don't particularly buy that one, and feel like the Chargers are the most overrated team in the league for their "potential." Chiefs did a worse mid-season nosedive than we did. 

 

As of now we are worse at at many levels of talent.

WR somehow worse than we were last year, which was already a dumpster fire.

We have no linebackers or offensive line to speak of.

While I thought it was time to move on from tyrod, we will be worse THIS YEAR at that position almost certainly in terms of production/turnovers but will be better in the long run with a young QB core.

We will win 4-6 games this year unless we hit the draft lottery/an mccarron lottery.

 

My post was in response to a guy saying we were #6 in the AFC which isn't even reasonable.

 

The raiders were a 12 win team the year before.

I'm not sure what happened last year, but it seemed like coaching, but they added gruden to the helm this year.

They are a better team than us.

 

The chargers started cold last year and then turned it around. They have a borderline HoF QB, a monster pass rush, and very good receivers (who were hurt early last year).

They are a very solid team.

 

The chiefs are a better team, we caught them in a nosedive, which was crazy to see that happen.

Unless mahomes is a complete tire fire they are a better team.

 

Your logic that we beat the raiders and chiefs makes us better is just not true in the NFL. 

Sometimes better teams crap the bed on a day.

I would say we did a little overachieving last year as a whole, I pegged us at 6-7 wins, as did most predictions.

 

We will be taking a step back this year, and I will say, unless our QB situation turns into the Golden goose overnight, we will be around 5-7 wins.

 

The QB situation also looks like it could be a flaming turd, depending on who we draft, he probably shouldn't start this year, and aj is a huge chance to trash, so 2-4 wins is actually a fair bit bold prediction if our QB situation is a mess.

Edited April 21, 2018 by SouthNYfan

[Epstein's Mother]

I trust that Vegas knows a lot more about what's going on than I do this guy.

 

Buffalo 2018 wins o/u  -  7

[DCOrange]

Obviously the draft can change things but I expect 5-7 wins which is basically the exact range Clay’s official predictions falls within. Think his predictions pegged Buffalo for 6 wins based on predicted point differential and that’s exactly where the Bills point differential ended up. 

[Mr. WEO]

EJ Gaines and Deonte Thompson were "solid starters"??  What a joke.

[thurst44]

33 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

Man do I hate the “who knows what will happen until the games are played?” arguement.  It’s reasonable t9 make educated guesses that can then be argued.  The alternative is never to speculate about anything. 

Well, how about this, maybe not immediately presume your own team is terrible, and be absolutely unflappably sure about it. It's the "woe is us" "we're always the worst" postulating that is itself the worst, particularly coming off a playoff season.

[NoSaint]

49 minutes ago, teef said:

I could certainly see the bills being a couple of games worse this season, but a 7 game swing?  It’s just absurd. When was the last time this team was that bad?

 

The flip side is what if we were a 6-7 win team last year that was lucky with bounces and health and such.... the gap from 3 or so wins to 9 wins can be a McCoy ankle, tre white knee and not getting a call like the Marty ice fumble. Roll in questions at qb and who knows where we go 

[Gugny]

8 hours ago, Seanbillsfan2206 said:

Now personally I think this guy is a pigdick and probably eats paint, but that’s just my opinion...

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2018/04/20/2018-nfl-season-buffalo-bills-espn-worst-team-in-nfl/amp/

 

Just in case anyone was wondering (I did):

 

[SoCal Deek]

Hard to believe that 7-9 would be the worst team in the league...but who knows! ?

[4merper4mer]

58 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Pats

Chiefs

Steelers

Jags

Chargers

Raiders

Jaguars

 

That's 7 better

Titans are probably a coinflip

Broncos are better if keenum is even 70% of what he did last year

I can see being bullish on Jax, but you've taken it too far.

[thurst44]

21 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

As of now we are worse at at many levels of talent.

WR somehow worse than we were last year, which was already a dumpster fire.

We have no linebackers or offensive line to speak of.

While I thought it was time to move on from tyrod, we will be worse THIS YEAR at that position almost certainly in terms of production/turnovers but will be better in the long run with a young QB core.

We will win 4-6 games this year unless we hit the draft lottery/an mccarron lottery.

 

My post was in response to a guy saying we were #6 in the AFC which isn't even reasonable.

 

The raiders were a 12 win team the year before.

I'm not sure what happened last year, but it seemed like coaching, but they added gruden to the helm this year.

They are a better team than us.

 

The chargers started cold last year and then turned it around. They have a borderline HoF QB, a monster pass rush, and very good receivers (who were hurt early last year).

They are a very solid team.

 

The chiefs are a better team, we caught them in a nosedive, which was crazy to see that happen.

Unless mahomes is a complete tire fire they are a better team.

 

Your logic that we beat the raiders and chiefs makes us better is just not true in the NFL. 

Sometimes better teams crap the bed on a day.

I would say we did a little overachieving last year as a whole, I pegged us at 6-7 wins, as did most predictions.

 

We will be taking a step back this year, and I will say, unless our QB situation turns into the Golden goose overnight, we will be around 5-7 wins.

 

The QB situation also looks like it could be a flaming turd, depending on who we draft, he probably shouldn't start this year, and aj is a huge chance to trash, so 2-4 wins is actually a fair bit bold prediction if our QB situation is a mess.

How are we worse at WR than September. We had Matthews #1, now we have Benjamin.

We don't have "no LBs" -- Milano stepped up in a huge way, and Lorenzo was looking great at the end, and Humber is still there (and we expected nothing from him last year)

Ditto "no O-line"...it's definitely a step down from last year.

 

We also improved in some ways -- DL is hard to gauge, b/c we did have Dareus at this time last year, but we didn't when we went 4-2 at the end of the season.

 

We may be taking a step back or we may not. We overachieved last year, probably, but that wasn't in a vacuum. It may have had something to do with the level of coaching. 

 

In any case, my point in defense of the other poster is that he was simply saying "until it is proved otherwise, we are the 6th best team" and I agree to an extent, especially 5 days before the draft when this team is nowhere near set. I see the possibility of a great defense holding it up for an offense that struggles at times, kind of like last year, and if we draft a QB who picks it up fast, who knows. Could they be a 2 win team, sure...I doubt it, and it's annoying how the prognosticators always key in on the Bills as a 2 or 3 win team, we never are, and they never get called for it, yet some fans will echo it every year. Not that it really matters, I suppose.

[Big Turk]

Have you lost your mind?

[RochesterRob]

7 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

This guy is just looking for clicks

  Yep, and he looks for them in terms of where they are most apt to come from.  Boards such as this most likely are far more active than other boards especially if the NFL city also has MLB, NHL, and the NBA.

Edited April 21, 2018 by RochesterRob

[BarleyNY]

Just now, thurst44 said:

Well, how about this, maybe not immediately presume your own team is terrible, and be absolutely unflappably sure about it. It's the "woe is us" "we're always the worst" postulating that is itself the worst, particularly coming off a playoff season.

 

Is that what happened there?  Or did the poster compare the differences in the specific position groups?  Right now I’m struggling to find a position group that’s improved - other than the DL.  Several are definitely worse at the moment: QB, OL (by a whole lot), CB, LB and probably even WR.  But, as some have noted, this isn’t the final roster.  We’ve got the draft and cut downs to pick up help.

 

The other point that has been brought up is point differential, which statistically is a better predictor of teams’ records the following year than their actual record from the previous year.  IIRC the Bills exceeded their prediction last season with 9 wins as opposed to their predicted 7 (I think it was 6.7or 6.8).  Their differential in 2017 indicated about 7 wins for 2018 too.  That explains the rebuild, which is actually comforting to me.  The McBean regime recognized that they overachieved last season and they’re preparing for the long term rather than fooling themselves into believing that they could stay the course and repeat their relative success.

 

The upshot for me is that I won’t be expecting a great record next season, but I will expect to see a team building for the future and one that will fill some (but not all of its) holes and be competitive. 

[Talley56]

I seem to remember hardly anyone, even the majority of our fan base, giving us a chance to make the playoffs last year.

[SouthNYfan]

14 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

I can see being bullish on Jax, but you've taken it too far.

 

Chiefs are better if mahomes is good.

They are a better team than us all around, much better offensively, we are a few ticks better defensively, but mahomes is a big question mark.

If he's good they're a top AFC team.

If he's not, then they aren't.

(Kind of like us with AJ, but I'd rather be in their QB situation than ours)

Raiders was an anomaly last year, they are very talented, Carr is very good, and gruden is running the show now.

Chargers are better at the places that matter most (QB, pass rush, receivers) and most likely will be better than us.

 

My point was the guy said we were the 6th best team in the AFC East unless proven otherwise.

I'm not sure why he thinks that off-season moves don't matter.

 

12 minutes ago, thurst44 said:

How are we worse at WR than September. We had Matthews #1, now we have Benjamin.

We don't have "no LBs" -- Milano stepped up in a huge way, and Lorenzo was looking great at the end, and Humber is still there (and we expected nothing from him last year)

Ditto "no O-line"...it's definitely a step down from last year.

 

We also improved in some ways -- DL is hard to gauge, b/c we did have Dareus at this time last year, but we didn't when we went 4-2 at the end of the season.

 

We may be taking a step back or we may not. We overachieved last year, probably, but that wasn't in a vacuum. It may have had something to do with the level of coaching. 

 

In any case, my point in defense of the other poster is that he was simply saying "until it is proved otherwise, we are the 6th best team" and I agree to an extent, especially 5 days before the draft when this team is nowhere near set. I see the possibility of a great defense holding it up for an offense that struggles at times, kind of like last year, and if we draft a QB who picks it up fast, who knows. Could they be a 2 win team, sure...I doubt it, and it's annoying how the prognosticators always key in on the Bills as a 2 or 3 win team, we never are, and they never get called for it, yet some fans will echo it every year. Not that it really matters, I suppose.

 

We are worse at wr.

Matthews is gone, Zay night not be fit to play, Benjamin had off-season knee surgery, again.

 

Lb Milano is very solid, but lorax is about 90 years old. We literally are barren at lb with zero depth.

 

Dline is very solid if star can regain his form previously under MCD, if he plays like last year he's a bust.

 

OLine we are a mess.

QB we are actually a step back unless AJ can perform at above average starter level (again, it was the right move and in the long term with the right draft choice we will be better)

 

We definitely aren't a 2 win team.

We also aren't the 9 win team we were last year, since what was an overachieve, though I was happy with the coaching and I think we are good for a while going forward.

 

This year should be viewed as a possible step back from last year in terms of W-L as we will be integrating many new young players and a brew QBs into the mix.

I see 6-7 wins this year as a solid number, with 4-5 possible in the cards depending on the QB situation.

 

People need to be realistic.

Optimism is 8 wins, but unrealistic looking at the schedule.

18 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

Is that what happened there?  Or did the poster compare the differences in the specific position groups?  Right now I’m struggling to find a position group that’s improved - other than the DL.  Several are definitely worse at the moment: QB, OL (by a whole lot), CB, LB and probably even WR.  But, as some have noted, this isn’t the final roster.  We’ve got the draft and cut downs to pick up help.

 

The other point that has been brought up is point differential, which statistically is a better predictor of teams’ records the following year than their actual record from the previous year.  IIRC the Bills exceeded their prediction last season with 9 wins as opposed to their predicted 7 (I think it was 6.7or 6.8).  Their differential in 2017 indicated about 7 wins for 2018 too.  That explains the rebuild, which is actually comforting to me.  The McBean regime recognized that they overachieved last season and they’re preparing for the long term rather than fooling themselves into believing that they could stay the course and repeat their relative success.

 

The upshot for me is that I won’t be expecting a great record next season, but I will expect to see a team building for the future and one that will fill some (but not all of its) holes and be competitive. 

 

Exactly what I'm saying.

Point differential is tough to gauge this year with the QB position turnover though, but as I even said in my other response, if AJ is much better than expected, then we could rock 8-9 wins.

[thurst44]

1 minute ago, BarleyNY said:

 

Is that what happened there?  Or did the poster compare the differences in the specific position groups?  Right now I’m struggling to find a position group that’s improved - other than the DL.  Several are definitely worse at the moment: QB, OL (by a whole lot), CB, LB and probably even WR.  But, as some have noted, this isn’t the final roster.  We’ve got the draft and cut downs to pick up help.

 

The other point that has been brought up is point differential, which statistically is a better predictor of teams’ records the following year than their actual record from the previous year.  IIRC the Bills exceeded their prediction last season with 9 wins as opposed to their predicted 7 (I think it was 6.7or 6.8).  Their differential in 2017 indicated about 7 wins for 2018 too.  That explains the rebuild, which is actually comforting to me.  The McBean regime recognized that they overachieved last season and they’re preparing for the long term rather than fooling themselves into believing that they could stay the course and repeat their relative success.

 

The upshot for me is that I won’t be expecting a great record next season, but I will expect to see a team building for the future and one that will fill some (but not all of its) holes and be competitive. 

No, one poster said they are 6th until proven otherwise and the other kind of missed the point that he wasn't saying either way. Funny thing is, I don't think the two of us are all that far apart. I would not be shocked for us to be 6-10 (and as you said, improving), but I don't see this etched in stone as some (not saying you).

The point differential argument has bugged me, because of how it usually happens vs. how it happened for us. The score was run up in a three game stretch where the team was just terrible and outscored by 80 pts. They were 5-2 before that, 4-2 after that run. There's a strong argument that that stretch was an outlier, and that there's more to the story than that it's anything that would determine how they play next year. I would suggest that in the 4-2 ending where they only lost to the eventual AFC champions and they showed the character to not let their nosedive define them suggests more about this season than that three game stretch.

 

But in any case, let's look at point differential determining the next season for playoff teams. The four playoff teams with worse differentials (2010 Seahawks, 2011 Broncos, 2004 Rams, 1989 Steelers) were in their following season: 7-9, 13-3, 6-10, 9-7. 

 

As for positional rankings, I don't see how the CB situation IS worse at all. Tre White will have one more experience after a year where he was PFF's ROTY, Vontae Davis is a veteran, multi-year pro-bowler,  Philip Gaines, going in, is not appreciably worse than Leonard Johnson as backup, who they will still likely re-sign. OL, I'll give you, but we still don't even know wtf is going on with Richie and Cordy didn't do much of anything last year, so with the right side the same, it might not end up being that much of a downgrade. QB...well, I liked Tyrod more than most (a lot more than most), and AJ is a question mark at best, while the "rookie" is a literal question mark, so fair enough. WRs were a complete question mark going into last season, and it would be hard to be worse than that. LBs is for now questionable, Lorax looks less promising than going into last season and is older, Milano looks more promising, Humber more promising (but didn't promise much at all), and there's a big hole at middle linebacker instead of a player no one here seemed to think that much of at the time. But again, as you said, the rosters are anything but finished.