GoBills808 Posted April 29, 2018 Posted April 29, 2018 3 hours ago, Rob's House said: I sometimes wonder how much of that is cause and how much is effect. Teams that are down late tend to take more chances and throw more passes which increase the risk of turnovers. As far as not all turnovers being equal, a 40 yd bomb that gets picked off is really no worse than a punt. A pick 6 or fumble near the LOS can be a game changer. Personally, I like a QB who'd rather risk the int on a deep ball and give you a chance at a big play than the guy who checks down on 3rd and long to protect his stat sheet. Going off this idea: will the NFL ever see a team who starts throwing Hail Marys instead of punting? Seems to me that a QB with a big enough arm could throw for what a punter might average, and with PI rules being what they are if I were a coach I’d consider it.
Mikie2times Posted April 29, 2018 Posted April 29, 2018 (edited) 8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Kzoo, I respect the QB draft data you presented in another thread. Here, your take on AJ off. It's pretty hard to make a case that a 1.7% turnover rate (in a small sample of 5 games) constitutes "much more turnover prone" (and no, he doesn't fumble more). I wouldn't want to make a deal out of 2.8 sacks per game vs 3 sacks per game either. In fact, when I did my draft QB analysis using hard metrics, there were two names that popped up and surprised me. One was AJ McCarron, the other was Cody Kessler. That said, I agree of course about the talent depletion on the offense, and the fact that when AJ played decently at the end of season for the Bengals, he had very talented WR and a solid OL. I think he is a far better pocket-passing QB who can read the D and understand where to go with the ball, he just doesn't always have the arm to get it there. You're probably right that Taylor would give us better play at the QB position because of his legs, but I think the Bills went with the "Good is the Enemy of Great" philosophy there. When we traded Taylor, I thought for sure we were going to make a push to sign one of the big FA, and maybe we were but got out-bid? I'm not sure having McCarron and a rookie (and Peterman) in the QB room was the plan. That said, if McCarron is a smart and hard working guy, perhaps they feel he will be a better mentor in the room, and a better example of standing in the pocket, making reads and progressions on the field? We have got to do something about our OL and WR though. Very disappointed if we go to training camp where we are today. I based my conclusions on Tyrod be prolific in his ability to not turn the ball over. He has the 2nd lowest INT% of any QB to throw more than 100 passes since 2000. Against that standard I expect we will see more turnovers. Then I looked at AJ's sack % in the time he did play in 2015 and he had a 9.2% sack %. That would put him in the bottom two or three in the league last year (Ironically right by Taylor). In Taylor that sack% gets more offset by runs and the typical improve yards Taylor would give us extending plays. AJ won't do that as effectively. He's more of what we wanted which is a downfield passer. He just has no options to throw the ball downfield. So while I don't pine for Tyrod, I think with the current roster he would have given us a better chance at winning next year. As is, it looks rebuild to me. Neither of our quarterbacks are going to be able to turn these lemons into lemonade. Edited April 29, 2018 by KzooMike
DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted April 29, 2018 Posted April 29, 2018 it's funny to see the defense of a not so good QB from the past still rages on... 1
Teddy KGB Posted April 29, 2018 Posted April 29, 2018 The king of not throwing int’s and 3 point playoff games. Make it stop. 11 minutes ago, KzooMike said: I based my conclusions on Tyrod be prolific in his ability to not turn the ball over. He has the 2nd lowest INT% of any QB to throw more than 100 passes since 2000. Against that standard I expect we will see more turnovers. Then I looked at AJ's sack % in the time he did play in 2015 and he had a 9.2% sack %. That would put him in the bottom two or three in the league last year (Ironically right by Taylor). In Taylor that sack% gets more offset by runs and the typical improve yards Taylor would give us extending plays. AJ won't do that as effectively. He's more of what we wanted which is a downfield passer. He just has no options to throw the ball downfield. So while I don't pine for Tyrod, I think with the current roster he would have given us a better chance at winning next year. As is, it looks rebuild to me. Neither of our quarterbacks are going to be able to turn these lemons into lemonade.
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted April 29, 2018 Posted April 29, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said: it's funny to see the defense of a not so good QB from the past still rages on... When ToC find themselfs in times of trouble, Mother Mary comes to me. Speaking words of wisdom, set it free. Let him go, let him go. Speaking words of wisdom let him gooooo Edited April 29, 2018 by ShadyBillsFan 1
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