Why all the hate for Josh Allen?

[billspro]

49 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Allen has more physical gifts than White.  Wesern Kentucky is also a better football program right now then Wyoming.  They have gone to 4 straight bowls games.  Wyoming won 2 games the season before Allen arrived.  Since Allen has been there they lost every game he didn't appear.  Wyoming went to back to back bowl games for the first time since 1988-1989.  To say Allen hasn't risen the team around him is totally inaccurate. 

 

White has the arm to make every throw and is very accurate. The knock on him is he is a very poor runner. His immobility does not fit well in today’s NFL. He is going to have to learn to master pocket movements.

[Rico]

He’s a great big Gomer with a great big gun for an arm and accuracy issues. Bills fans have already seen this in here before.

 

He’s also said to be a major project who isn’t close to being ready to start. Bills fans have already seen this in here before too.

 

Other than that, I have no problem picking up someone like him on Day 3 or as a UDFA. If he somehow ends up being the Chosen One though, I will have no choice but to trust the process... for now.

[metzelaars_lives]

43 minutes ago, macaroni said:

 

E.J. Comp percentages ... 2009-65.5 ... 2010-69.9 ... 2011-65.3 ... 2012-68.0 .... YPA 2009-7.7 ... 2010-9.3 ... 2011-8.6 ... 2012 ... 8.8

Josh Allen comp% ...2016-56.0 ... 2017-56.3 ... YPA 2016-8.6 ... 2017-6.7

 

With those college stats, if E.J. should have gone in the third round ... what round should Allen go in????? While I will agree Allen COULD have a better NFL career than EJ has, the only reason that he could is he hasn't yet had a chance to fail in the NFL.

 

You proclaim that Allen could go first overall in a deep QB class ... exactly what puts him ahead of Mayfield, Rosen, or Darnold (you could probably throw in Rudolph and Lauletta too) in your estimation?

Of course he could.  Even the most staunch anti-Allen people would agree on this.  They wonder how and why but everyone recognizes it's a possibility if you're paying any attention to the draft.  My whole point is that when the vast, vast majority of experts, analysts, scouts, etc. have Allen as a top four QB in this draft and you (not you per say) are thinking he should go in the fifth round and "he sucks," then maybe, just maybe, instead of spouting off about something/someone you know very little about, maybe try and understand why the people who know way more than you about the topic feel the way that they do.  For instance, feel free to take a look at my Allen thread where I explain his completion percentage.  And I'm not speaking to you directly.

Edited April 19, 2018 by metzelaars_lives

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

43 minutes ago, macaroni said:

 

E.J. Comp percentages ... 2009-65.5 ... 2010-69.9 ... 2011-65.3 ... 2012-68.0 .... YPA 2009-7.7 ... 2010-9.3 ... 2011-8.6 ... 2012 ... 8.8

Josh Allen comp% ...2016-56.0 ... 2017-56.3 ... YPA 2016-8.6 ... 2017-6.7

 

With those college stats, if E.J. should have gone in the third round ... what round should Allen go in????? While I will agree Allen COULD have a better NFL career than EJ has, the only reason that he could is he hasn't yet had a chance to fail in the NFL.

 

You proclaim that Allen could go first overall in a deep QB class ... exactly what puts him ahead of Mayfield, Rosen, or Darnold (you could probably throw in Rudolph and Lauletta too) in your estimation?

 

 

...a PRIME reason why stats will never be the sole source of decision making as they are and forever will be highly manipulative to prove one's point or disprove another's......

[Logic]

Have you just not been around on the forums for the past 3 months? It's been discussed nonstop over that entire period.

And no one "hates" him, there are just plenty of people who think he's gonna stink at playing quarterback in the NFL. The usual reason given is that, well, he stunk at playing quarterback in high school and college.

[The Jokeman]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Common sense

Poor accuracy 

Weak competition 

Slow to make reads

Sometimes size and arm strength only go so far. Ask EJ how illustrious his NFL career was with 6-5 and strong arm.....

but but he passed for 1800 yards last year in a weak conference, he's going to be great! Er not really let someone else have him. 

[macaroni]

4 minutes ago, metzelaars_lives said:

Of course he could.  Even the most staunch anti-Allen people would agree on this.  They wonder how and why but everyone recognizes it's a possibility if you're paying any attention to the draft.  My whole point is that when the vast, vast majority of experts, analysts, scouts, etc. have Allen as a top four QB in this draft and you (not you per say) are thinking he should go in the fifth round and "he sucks," then maybe, just maybe, instead of spouting off about something/someone you know very little about, maybe try and understand why the people who know way more than you about the topic feel the way that they do.  For instance, feel free to take a look at my Allen thread where I explain his completion percentage.  And I'm not speaking to you directly.

 

Ahhhhhhh ..... I think we know what the media "experts" are touting .... but truth be told they REALLY don't know much more than you or I. Right now Allen is hyped to be a possible #1 pick by the media, but we really don't know what the REAL experts think until draft day (I define "REAL experts" as people whose jobs depend on picking the right person at the right time).

 

I've never said he sucks, he will get drafted by an NFL team and he will be given the chance to win a starting job, and that's not sucking. My only contention is in that there is nothing in his background or statistics that make him a consensus #1 pick. He may very well end up a HOF QB once his career is over ... but right now, at this moment, I don't see him even in the discussion of the top three QBs of the draft .... and maybe even the top 4 or 5.

[metzelaars_lives]

31 minutes ago, Logic said:

Have you just not been around on the forums for the past 3 months? It's been discussed nonstop over that entire period.

And no one "hates" him, there are just plenty of people who think he's gonna stink at playing quarterback in the NFL. The usual reason given is that, well, he stunk at playing quarterback in high school and college.

You people have become a parody of a parody of a parody.

[Formerly Allan in MD]

2 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

and this says it all. when your line cant protect you.. then again can our line protect him?

At this point, what line?

1 hour ago, billspro said:

 

White has the arm to make every throw and is very accurate. The knock on him is he is a very poor runner. His immobility does not fit well in today’s NFL. He is going to have to learn to master pocket movements.

If that's all he has to learn, grab him.  I continue to feel that White or Lauletta is the way to go, while you fix all other aspects of the equation.

[Logic]

1 hour ago, metzelaars_lives said:

You people have become a parody of a parody of a parody.

Woah woah woah....what do you mean by "YOU PEOPLE"?

[JMF2006]

4 hours ago, PIZ said:

 

 

If "Ifs and buts were candies and nuts then everyday would be Christmas"

 

He is going to be pressured a lot more in the NFL by bigger and faster players.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, Buff76ers said:

We does everyone hate the idea of Josh Allen to Buffalo, but all these experts think differently. There is a reason he could go number, but I can’t see what all the hate is for? 

 

Don't hate the guy.  Seems like an admirable young man.  If the Bills were to draft him at, say, 12 or 22, it wouldn't be my first choice, but OK.

 

The problem with Allen is that he's a high ceiling/low floor developmental project type QB with known gaps and flaws to his game.  I personally don't believe one should "trade up" to draft such a player, and I also think he would benefit by sitting for a year or so to work on his technique which the Bills are not well positioned to allow.

[Domdab99]

pointing out that Allen does something amazing about once a game reminds me of the Dave Razzano story from working in the Rams' front office when Charley Armey wanted all his scouts to revise their grades to put Alex Smith #1 and played a highlight tape to argue his case. As Razzano said, anyone can look good on a highlight tape. I just believe that the smartest approach to the draft is to treat players as though they are who they are-- they'll get better with time as they work on their craft, of course, but taking someone like Allen is essentially betting that you'll be able to turn him from bad to good at certain things, and I think that's pretty much outside of the developmental curve for QBs.

[ddaryl]

4 hours ago, metzelaars_lives said:

No.  I never said I would.  I'm saying that people claiming he "wasn't good in college" are wildly misinformed.  He was very good in 2016.  His 2017 numbers are extremely misleading.  I'm not sure why the naysayers continue to ignore that he was very good in 2016, especially for being a first year starter.

He did.  He actually, literally, factually did.  In 2016, three of his offensive weapons from that year are currently on NFL rosters (four if you include his center).  The year before they went 2-10.  Two of his offensive teammates literally got drafted in the 2017 NFL draft because of Josh Allen and the season he had in 2016.  His tight end played in the Super Bowl for the Patriots last year.  His #1 receiver dressed for the Bears a few times last year.  His #2 receiver played in camp with the Saints.  None of them (except his RB, he was already very good) would have sniffed the NFL without Josh Allen.  Do facts matter anymore? 

 

 

And still. Sub 60%.

[sven233]

Inaccurate, slow to read the field and the defenses he is playing against, bails out of the pocket too early, poor decisions, and played poorly against bad defenses and even worse against good teams.

 

Look.....I will be the first to admit that if he reached his full potential, he may be the best QB in the draft.  HOWEVER, I think he is a development guy at best that shouldn't see the field for 2 years and, even after all that, probably has about an 80% chance to bust.

 

The guy can sling it without a doubt......  But, right now anyway, he can't hit the broadside of a barn.  Even if he could, he would probably be too late to see it and would be sacked.  Unfortunately, his most impressive throws in college are on the run, and many of them he wouldn't be able to get away with in the NFL because they would be picked by better players.

 

Let someone else take the chance on him.  I want no part of him.

Edited April 20, 2018 by sven233

[Mango]

5 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

and this says it all. when your line cant protect you.. then again can our line protect him?

 

 

You can’t adjust the stats for one and not the other. Also, if I am reading this right, Rosen was pressured more, on target more often, and completed more passes when under pressure. 

 

Not getting the point here...

[metzelaars_lives]

1 hour ago, ddaryl said:

 

 

And still. Sub 60%.

I see you have yet to respond to my post, responding to your post, where you said, "if he's so good then he would've made the players around him draft-able," to which I responded that he, in fact, had no less than FOUR teammates from 2016 in the NFL last season- three of whom never sniff the NFL if Josh Allen doesn't show up in 2016 (Tanner Gentry, Jacob Hollister and Chase Roullier).  I'll hang up and listen. 

2 hours ago, Logic said:

Woah woah woah....what do you mean by "YOU PEOPLE"?

People who say that Josh Allen "stunk in college."  For at least the 30th time, HE WAS VERY GOOD IN 2016.  No animosity intended.  In all seriousness, check out the thread I started re: Allen to read more about him. 

[Logic]

48 minutes ago, metzelaars_lives said:

 

People who say that Josh Allen "stunk in college."  For at least the 30th time, HE WAS VERY GOOD IN 2016.  No animosity intended.  In all seriousness, check out the thread I started re: Allen to read more about him. 

I was kidding with the "What do you mean YOU PEOPLE?" remark.

I was not kidding that my opinion is that Allen stinks. I also respect and appreciate your contrary opinion. I have already read and quite enjoyed your Allen thread. I have also watched every "all throws" video I can find on Youtube, because part of me thinks the Bills really like him, and I'm trying to get myself mentally ready.

He makes anywhere from 2-5 "WOW" throws per game. But everything in between those "WOW" throws -- the misfires of simple swing routes and screens, bailing out of pocket due to phantom pressure, failure to keep the offense "on schedule" much of the time, misfiring on seam routes and overthrowing would-be TDs, boneheaded "WHAT WAS HE THINKING?!" interceptions -- concerns me very much. Of all the QBs, I feel like I've watched and read about Allen the MOST, even though I like him the least. I've watched and read about him BECAUSE I don't understand why he is a candidate to be a top five pick. It's so strange to me that a guy who completed less than 60% of his passes in high school, failed to garner any major college offers in two separate recruiting campaigns (despite THAT arm and THOSE physical tools), didn't blow away the competition in the Mountain West, and failed to complete 60% of his passes again at Wyoming...is somehow a top five candidate. I can see his off-the-charts physical gifts, I can see that the skill position players and offensive line around him in 2017 stunk, I can see that he makes some jaw-dropping throws...but all of that doesn't add up to an NFL projection I feel comfortable with. Physical gifts and "Want-to" alone won't do it. I fear he doesn't have what it takes between the ears. That's my opinion. I respect that yours is different and all that really matters is that we'll find out what Beane and McDermott's opinion is on the matter in one week.

[metzelaars_lives]

25 minutes ago, Logic said:

I was kidding with the "What do you mean YOU PEOPLE?" remark.

I was not kidding that my opinion is that Allen stinks. I also respect and appreciate your contrary opinion. I have already read and quite enjoyed your Allen thread. I have also watched every "all throws" video I can find on Youtube, because part of me thinks the Bills really like him, and I'm trying to get myself mentally ready.

He makes anywhere from 2-5 "WOW" throws per game. But everything in between those "WOW" throws -- the misfires of simple swing routes and screens, bailing out of pocket due to phantom pressure, failure to keep the offense "on schedule" much of the time, misfiring on seam routes and overthrowing would-be TDs, boneheaded "WHAT WAS HE THINKING?!" interceptions -- concerns me very much. Of all the QBs, I feel like I've watched and read about Allen the MOST, even though I like him the least. I've watched and read about him BECAUSE I don't understand why he is a candidate to be a top five pick. It's so strange to me that a guy who completed less than 60% of his passes in high school, failed to garner any major college offers in two separate recruiting campaigns (despite THAT arm and THOSE physical tools), didn't blow away the competition in the Mountain West, and failed to complete 60% of his passes again at Wyoming...is somehow a top five candidate. I can see his off-the-charts physical gifts, I can see that the skill position players and offensive line around him in 2017 stunk, I can see that he makes some jaw-dropping throws...but all of that doesn't add up to an NFL projection I feel comfortable with. Physical gifts and "Want-to" alone won't do it. I fear he doesn't have what it takes between the ears. That's my opinion. I respect that yours is different and all that really matters is that we'll find out what Beane and McDermott's opinion is on the matter in one week.

That's a reasonable post.  I certainly understand the skepticism.  Let me see if I can explain it a different way.  He shows up in 2016- they had been a lousy program for a while and were 2-10 the year before- and takes the conference by storm.  Here's this guy, who's 6'5" with an absolute cannon, running people over, beating a ranked Boise State team, beating a ranked San Diego State team, en route to a Mountain West Championship game- out of NOWHERE.  Every game he plays in, he's all the talk from the announcers, he's the biggest guy on the field- he's almost like a man amongst boys out there.  Literally the ONLY thing you would've liked to see different in 2016 from a stats standpoint is fewer INT's (he threw five in the season opener, his first game, at Nebraska) and a better completion % (I have gone over that part ad nauseam).  Believe me when I tell you that, following the 2016 season, Josh Allen being thrown around as the #1 or 2 pick in the draft by MOST people was 1000% absolutely warranted.  For a first year starter, with those tools, with all the highlight plays he made, taking over a 2-10 program and having that type of season- no one was questioning the hype whatsoever.  No one.  He had a great season.  Period.  The trajectory he was on after the 2016 season was absolutely pointing toward him being the guy.

 

As far as 2017, I've said all that I can say.  I knew his numbers would regress.  If he had all those guys back, his numbers would've improved and he would've firmly cemented himself as the #1 guy in the draft.  Alas, they didn't and he is viewed as a question mark by many.  I totally get how you might look at his numbers in 2017 and say, "how can a guy put up THOSE type of numbers in the Mountain West Conference and be viewed as a top pick?"  I totally get it.  I would argue that there's way more to it than that.  He did NOT get worse at football.  The difference in the talent he had in 2016 vs. 2017 CANNOT be overstated.  If you believe that Josh Rosen would've tore up the MWC with Allen's supporting cast last season, feel free to believe that.  I don't believe he would have.  

 

All this being said, I still think Allen needs a year and would be best-suited going to the Steelers or the Chargers and I wouldn't be shocked whatsoever if he slips in the draft.  But to suggest that he "wasn't good in college" is simply not true.  He was REALLY good in 2016.  REALLY good.  And, again, look at what happened when he went out of the lineup in 2017!  He was 8-3 last year- 8-1 against non-power 5 teams.  I digress.

 

P.S. Not sure where you're going with the "between the ears" thing.  He is coachable, likeable, has an excellent attitude and scored the highest on the wonderlic of all the QB's at the combine.   

Edited April 20, 2018 by metzelaars_lives

[Logic]

1 hour ago, metzelaars_lives said:

That's a reasonable post.  I certainly understand the skepticism.  Let me see if I can explain it a different way.  He shows up in 2016- they had been a lousy program for a while and were 2-10 the year before- and takes the conference by storm.  Here's this guy, who's 6'5" with an absolute cannon, running people over, beating a ranked Boise State team, beating a ranked San Diego State team, en route to a Mountain West Championship game- out of NOWHERE.  Every game he plays in, he's all the talk from the announcers, he's the biggest guy on the field- he's almost like a man amongst boys out there.  Literally the ONLY thing you would've liked to see different in 2016 from a stats standpoint is fewer INT's (he threw five in the season opener, his first game, at Nebraska) and a better completion % (I have gone over that part ad nauseam).  Believe me when I tell you that, following the 2016 season, Josh Allen being thrown around as the #1 or 2 pick in the draft by MOST people was 1000% absolutely warranted.  For a first year starter, with those tools, with all the highlight plays he made, taking over a 2-10 program and having that type of season- no one was questioning the hype whatsoever.  No one.  He had a great season.  Period.  The trajectory he was on after the 2016 season was absolutely pointing toward him being the guy.

 

As far as 2017, I've said all that I can say.  I knew his numbers would regress.  If he had all those guys back, his numbers would've improved and he would've firmly cemented himself as the #1 guy in the draft.  Alas, they didn't and he is viewed as a question mark by many.  I totally get how you might look at his numbers in 2017 and say, "how can a guy put up THOSE type of numbers in the Mountain West Conference and be viewed as a top pick?"  I totally get it.  I would argue that there's way more to it than that.  He did NOT get worse at football.  The difference in the talent he had in 2016 vs. 2017 CANNOT be overstated.  If you believe that Josh Rosen would've tore up the MWC with Allen's supporting cast last season, feel free to believe that.  I don't believe he would have.  

 

All this being said, I still think Allen needs a year and would be best-suited going to the Steelers or the Chargers and I wouldn't be shocked whatsoever if he slips in the draft.  But to suggest that he "wasn't good in college" is simply not true.  He was REALLY good in 2016.  REALLY good.  And, again, look at what happened when he went out of the lineup in 2017!  He was 8-3 last year- 8-1 against non-power 5 teams.  I digress.

 

P.S. Not sure where you're going with the "between the ears" thing.  He is coachable, likeable, has an excellent attitude and scored the highest on the wonderlic of all the QB's at the combine.   

By "between the ears", I was not referring to his coachability or likability. Everyone says he's a coach's dream and I have no reason not to believe that.

His mental processing, ability to anticipate receivers coming open, and his lack of willingness to throw with anticipation into tight windows are what scare me. Brain stuff.

At the end of the day, the following graphic is deeply discouraging to me:
 

I just don't see him suddenly completing >60% of his passes just because he's surrounded by better talent. I'm sure you've read the recent article suggesting that a player's statistical college production is more likely to represent his ceiling than his floor. That's my fear. That Allen's ceiling is about a 58% completion rate. No amount of Jordan Palmer offseason footwork drills are getting me to buy in to the idea that Allen will vastly improve on those numbers, and those numbers aren't NFL caliber.