Football Outsiders Draft Guide

[Hapless Bills Fan]

48 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

That quote isn't of me.

 

I'll screenshot you in message.  'Tis.

 

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As for the football stats from his 3 games that you cite, you really have to include considering that those were his first 3 NFL games. Right? And what was he asked to do? Probably not a lot. They probably wanted to do anything but put the games on his shoulders.

 

Well, you can do what I've done and watch parts of them as available from Cover 1 Film Room and other Youtube Vids.

 

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Are you citing Tyrods stats as a 43 game starter against those of McCarron is his first 3 games? I don't know but  if you are, I won't go along with that.

 

Certainly! we can look at Tyrod's first 4 games as a starter if you like.  Here's Taylor:

 

Here's McCarron:

 

The part I'll grant without reservation is the thought that in 2 more years on the bench, perhaps McCarron further developed.  Perhaps he worked hard on his accuracy and ball placement.  It's possible.  He represents the unknown.

 

The part I won't grant is that yes, from the data available to us, it is reasonable to say he isn't an upgrade to Taylor on passing and therefore when you remove the run threat, he may well be a downgrade.  While it's not a certainty, there's also enough data to back it up and say that Football Outsiders shouldn't "lose all credibility" with the OP I responded to, for saying so.

PS if you click on those little images, they'll expand to where you can see them.  Data from pro-football-reference.

 

46 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Hapless is right, that if you take his actual performance in league games, AJ is a downgrade.   But then even Hapless says that AJ is more capable than Tyrod in the ways that McBeane want.   Well, if he's more capable in the ways the coach and GM want, doesn't that make him an upgrade?  

 

Well, no, not if you're a hard-nosed football analyst looking at Wins as the team's End goal 

Which is pretty much what Football Outsiders and Cold Hard Football Facts and similar establishments are about.

 

Let me get one thing clear: McCarron is a Bill now, and I'm a Bills Fan.   If we start him at QB, I would love more than anything else for him to prove me, and CHFF, and FO, and Cover1, all wrong.  But we in Buffalo have a tendency to get all mushy and homerist and hail the Next QB Up as The Savior.  And that's probably not realistic here.

Edited April 19, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[Shaw66]

20 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

Well, no, not if you're a hard-nosed football analyst looking at Wins as the team's End goal 

Which is pretty much what Football Outsiders and Cold Hard Football Facts and similar establishments are about.

 

No, hap, you have that wrong.  if he's more capable than Taylor in the areas that are important to the coaches, then he's an upgrade as far as the coaches are concerned.  

 

What you're saying is that the stats you prefer to rely on say he's a downgrade.  So that means you're asking me to accept your view over the coaches.  I won't do that.  

 

How can that be?  Well, maybe the most important things don't show up in the stats.  I don't know.  But if you tell me the coaches like McCarron better, I'm not going to buy your conclusion that they are wrong. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

31 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

No, hap, you have that wrong.  if he's more capable than Taylor in the areas that are important to the coaches, then he's an upgrade as far as the coaches are concerned.  

 

I will concede that.  But it's the overall "fate of the team in W-L" Football Outsiders perspective that's being discussed here.

If the overall offensive play of the team is a downgrade, but McCarron is an upgrade in some super-secret Coach's Goals sense, that's just not what FO and CHFF are about.

 

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What you're saying is that the stats you prefer to rely on say he's a downgrade.  So that means you're asking me to accept your view over the coaches.  I won't do that.  

 

No, what I'm saying is that we're talking about Football Outsiders perspective in saying he's a downgrade.  Football Outsiders will look at it from the perspective of offensive production contributing to a team's W-L record. 

 

It's not about my freakin' preference in stats (or brands of socks or Espresso machines). 

 

This really isn't that abstruse, or at least, it shouldn't be. 

 

Shall I say you must be arguing just for the fun of it now?

 

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How can that be?  Well, maybe the most important things don't show up in the stats.  I don't know.  But if you tell me the coaches like McCarron better, I'm not going to buy your conclusion that they are wrong. 

 

That's great, Shaw, except that I'm not trying to argue that the coaches are wrong.  I'm arguing that the OP who said Football Outsiders (which again, is not concerned with McDermott and Daboll's Secret Sauce Important Criteria for Success) lost all cred by tagging McCarron as a downgrade to Taylor is mistaken.  Looked at from a Cold Hard Football Facts/Football Outsiders perspective - which value overall offensive production and wins - they aren't wrong. 

 

And frankly, it's causing both you and Meanie to go into contortions to debate that.  I'm becoming concerned with the health of your respective backs.

Edited April 19, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[Epstein's Mother]

I think it's fair to say nobody can say with certainty what AJ is.  His body of work is incomplete.  When Tyrod came from Baltimore none of us knew what he was either we only knew what we hoped he would become.  He did not become what we hoped.  Hopefully the same fate does not await AJ.

[Shaw66]

32 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I will concede that.  But it's the overall "fate of the team in W-L" Football Outsiders perspective that's being discussed here.

If the overall offensive play of the team is a downgrade, but McCarron is an upgrade in some super-secret Coach's Goals sense, that's just not what FO and CHFF are about.

 

 

No, what I'm saying is that we're talking about Football Outsiders perspective in saying he's a downgrade.  Football Outsiders will look at it from the perspective of offensive production contributing to a team's W-L record. 

 

It's not about my freakin' preference in stats (or brands of socks or Espresso machines). 

 

This really isn't that abstruse, or at least, it shouldn't be. 

 

Shall I say you must be arguing just for the fun of it now?

 

 

That's great, Shaw, except that I'm not trying to argue that the coaches are wrong.  I'm arguing that the OP who said Football Outsiders (which again, is not concerned with McDermott and Daboll's Secret Sauce Important Criteria for Success) lost all cred by tagging McCarron as a downgrade to Taylor is mistaken.  Looked at from a Cold Hard Football Facts/Football Outsiders perspective - which value overall offensive production and wins - they aren't wrong. 

 

And frankly, it's causing both you and Meanie to go into contortions to debate that.  I'm becoming concerned with the health of your respective backs.

Well, okay, you're just saying that's what Football Outsiders are saying. 

 

I'll make the same argument. Why should I care about a stat that Football Outsiders made up if it reaches a different conclusion about the value of players than the coaches, who have greater expertise and access to equally good if not better data?

 

Now, my disclaimers.  First, I like Football Outsiders and if they think McCarron is a downgrade, I'm interested.  Second, I'm not sure the Bills coaches have ever said they think AJ is, overall, an upgrade.  Third, I doubt he's an upgrade.  Fourth, I don't think there's enough data to make a meaningful judgment; we have to see more starts from McCarron. Fifth, if it's a close call between Taylor and McCarron, thats enough to know AJ isn't the answer. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Mojo44 said:

  Taylor could not win games. That’s all there is. This is the third time I’ve made this point in various threads. Remember the last five games of the season when the bills made that awesome push to the playoffs. Taylor could not lead this team to even one touchdown in the fourth quarter. In a nutshell that says it all! We know for an absolute fact that Taylor, as an NFL quarterback, was crap. AJ is an unknown who has flashed some good stuff. Ipso facto, you cannot say with any certainty that AJ is a downgrade. And given just how crappy Taylor was, it’s more likely than not that he is an upgrade. Get it?

 

Well, no, since I don't agree with a bunch of your premises, I guess you'd have to conclude that I don't "get it". 

For example, I don't agree as an "absolute fact" that "Taylor, as an NFL quarterback, was or is crap." or "could not win games".   Your premise is invalid; Ipso facto your conclusion fails to persuade.

 

QB wins-losses are and always will be a team stat, but if you do insist to go there - it's a fact that the Bills, with Tyrod starting, won 22 and lost 21 games.  And he also flashed some good stuff.   It's also a fact that the Bengals, with AJ McCarron starting, won 2 and lost 2 games.   So by the same "logic" that says "Taylor can not win games" with about a 50/50 W/L, you'd have to say the same of McCarron.

 

As I've said before, I really don't want to go down the "defending Tyrod Taylor" rabbit hole, and now that McCarron is a Bill, I'll be rooting for him to succeed so I'm just about done here.  No, one can't say with certainty that McCarron is a downgrade, but one can't disregard or dismiss that possibility either, nor claim the group making it lost all cred.

 

 

 

 

[SouthNYfan]

I will say this:

 

AJ had some ridiculous weapons on the Bengals when he played.

Could he have been propped up by that?

The league history is ripe with backups who shined in a limited sample of games, went to another team to start, and promptly shat the bed. (Rob Johnson, Matt Flynn come to mind)

 

Steve Young was also a backup who pushed Joe f-in Montana out of town when he got his chance to shine.

Dak Prescott was an afterthought who shined with Romo went down.

Brady and Bledsoe.

Cinderella stories happen.

Could aj mccarron do that? Probably not, but one can hope, right??

 

I'm excited to see what happens, be it aj or a young guy. 

Hell like I said with Steve Young, he was trash with tb, so maybe Peterman blooms later too.

Or maybe he goes down in a blaze of glory that would make bon Jovi proud .

 

Let's just hit the draft and then start the season.

I'm ready for Bills' football, regardless of who's under center.

[CuddyDark]

4 hours ago, Foxx said:

yeah, no. Tyrod hit his ceiling long ago. that infamous scouting report upon his exodus from the college ranks was just as true that day as it is today.

Part of Tyrod's ceiling is RPO. If you look at what he was his first year with the Bills that is his ceiling. If you look at what they tried to make him I agree with you. AJ though is what, a career backup in year 4? 5? same as Tyrod, not good enough to beat out a game manager. We'll see what he does but I'd be shocked if he anything more that Ryan Fitzpatrick. I'd be winning to bet he Tyrod without running ability.

[Mat68]

Buffalo trades up for a starting qb.  Rosen or Darnold.  They draft griffen at 56 who becomes a star at the will or Mike.  Wr or Te in the 3rd.

[CuddyDark]

4 hours ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

I think what Tyrod brings is the running as you say. But for me all that does is make the losing more entertaining.

As you point out, th elast good chance t see McCarron pass was when at Bama. There is no good way to know what he is like now and if he has got better in the last 4 years.

 

So McCarron to me is some chance, versus no chance. I thank having a chance is an upgrade.

 

 

I don't believe the Bills are even this dumb where they'd bet on AJ McCarron. We'll see but I don't have much hope for him being an answer. Maybe he's the same as Tyrod, 9 or 10 wins on a perfect team with all stars all over the place. It just says a lot to me he could never beat out Dalton.