Why I would be worried if the Bills drafted Allen

[maryland-bills-fan]

Josh Allen has the look of what you want in a QB.  A big guy who can throw it through a brick wall.   Good character- not a butt-head.   What bothers me about him is that he played at a low level of competition and did poorly when facing teams in the top 50.  I wonder if he ever played against more than a handful of NFL-quality defensive backs in his 2 year college career. (Reedly JC for  first two years).  Usually, you want to see the guy do good against the top competition, or if he is at a lower level, he should dominate.  I don't see that he did that.  Let's look at his 2017 results and opponents.

 

 

The Mountain West compiled a .436 winning percentage in nonconference play, the third-worst clip in the FBS.    It is the 7th ranked conference in the ncaa.  

 

Hawaii, New Mexico and San Jose State all mustered a single conference triumph, and Nevada joined the trio with a 3-9 record or worse.

 

 

2017 Game Log			Passing								Rushing					QBR
DATE	OPP	RESULT	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	LNG	TD	INT	RAT	ATT	YDS	AVG	LNG	TD	RAW QBR	ADJ QBR
9/2	@Iowa	L 24-3	23	40	174	57.5	23	0	2	84.0	8	-10	-1.3	11	0	29.6	48.8
9/9	Gardner-Webb	W 27-0	22	32	328	68.8	47	2	0	175.5	0	0	0.0	0	0	96.1	89.3
9/16	Oregon	L 49-13	9	24	64	37.5	21	0	1	51.6	8	25	3.1	10	1	6.9	9.4
9/23	Hawai'i	W 28-21 (OT)	9	19	92	47.4	25	1	0	105.4	6	17	2.8	22	0	81.9	58.1
9/30	Texas State	W 45-10	14	24	219	58.3	40	3	0	176.2	8	12	1.5	9	0	88.0	75.1
10/14	@Utah State	W 28-23	18	26	208	69.2	28	1	1	141.4	16	36	2.3	16	1	59.0	64.7
10/21	@Boise State	L 24-14	12	27	131	44.4	30	1	2	82.6	18	62	3.4	19	1	62.5	69.6
10/28	New Mexico	W 42-3	16	28	234	57.1	38	4	0	174.5	4	20	5.0	11	1	77.7	61.5
11/4	Colorado State	W 16-13	10	20	138	50.0	21	0	0	108.0	12	60	5.0	18	0	40.9	31.6
11/11	@Air Force	W 28-14	8	11	70	72.7	17	1	0	156.2	4	-15	-3.8	2	1	83.6	66.4
11/18	Fresno State	L 13-7	No statistics available.
11/25	@San Jose State	L 20-17	No statistics available.
12/22	Central Michigan	W 37-14	11	19	154	57.9	45	3	0	178.1	8	-3	-0.4	7	0	88.3

Notice the QB rating against Iowa (29) and Oregon (6.9)    Fairly good teams.   ouch.

 

 

Quote

Team                     rank         game score        QB rating

 

Iowa                       #18       Lost 24-3                   30

Boise State            #33        Lost 24-14              63

Oregon                  #40         Lost 49-13                7

Fresno State        #53          Lost 13-7                   --

Colorado State     #84        Won 16-13               41

Air Force                #93        Won 28-14              84

Utah State              #89        Won 28-23             60

Central Michigan #99         Won 37-14             88

New Mexico          #114       Won 42-3              78

Hawaii                   #154        Won 28-21           82

San Jose State      #179         Lost 20-17          ---

Texas State             #183        Won 45-10          88

Gardner-Webb       #264         Won 27-0            97

 

So his record against ranking was

opponent   no.     record

1-25              1        0-1

26-50            2        0-2

51-100          5       4-1

101-150       1       1-0
151 +          4         3-1

 

I didn't triple check the numbers, so don't nitpick.  Allen did NOT play against top notch opponents.  In the film that you see on him, he is not throwing against too many DB's who will be in the pros.   I'm not a expert, but I don't see consistent success against top notch competition.  I don't see him playing and succeeding against good playeers.    I would be concerned about draft him as a project.

 

Quote

 

 

 

 

Edited April 19, 2018 by maryland-bills-fan

[LeGOATski]

It bothers me that he missed a target net from ten yards away.

[oldmanfan]

1.  Do the best scouting job you can

 

2.  Draft the guy you think is the answer; move up as needed to get him

 

3.  Hope you made the right call.

 

goes for Allen or anyone else they pick

[maryland-bills-fan]

Sorry for the messed up formatting on the OP.   Tables and embedded stuff doesn't work well for me.

[PIZ]

If they pick him, I will trust the process.

[LeGOATski]

2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

1.  Do the best scouting job you can

 

2.  Draft the guy you think is the answer; move up as needed to get him

 

3.  Hope you made the right call.

 

goes for Allen or anyone else they pick

4. Pick a QB who can hit stationary targets.

[Bookie Man]

I want nothing to do with Allen. His game is wildly inconsistent. For every wow throw, he'll make 3 head scratchers. I can't believe he's in the same discussion as Rosen, Mayfield and Darnold. I'd even take Lamar 10 times over Allen. 

[atlbillsfan1975]

You did a good bit of work there OP. Thanks for the input. Allen is the most intriguing prospect for me. I really don’t want the Bills to draft him. I’d rather take any of the other 3 QB’s in the first. Taking Allen is based on glimpses of possible potential, Allen doesn’t have the complete body of work. 

[PIZ]

I do see your point OP, but I also wonder how many NFL quality WRs, TEs, RBs, OL, coaches, etc. he had on his own team.  Level of competition definitely means something, but I also wonder about his own team and people surrounding him.  That is where having an elite scouting department, front office, and coaches come in, as they evaluate these guys.  If they pick him, I trust the process, and believe they picked him because he is the best player for this Bills team.

[billsredneck1]

36 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Josh Allen has the look of what you want in a QB.  A big guy who can throw it through a brick wall.   Good character- not a butt-head.   What bothers me about him is that he played at a low level of competition and did poorly when facing teams in the top 50.  I wonder if he ever played against more than a handful of NFL-quality defensive backs in his 2 year college career. (Reedly JC for  first two years).  Usually, you want to see the guy do good against the top competition, or if he is at a lower level, he should dominate.  I don't see that he did that.  Let's look at his 2017 results and opponents.

 

 

The Mountain West compiled a .436 winning percentage in nonconference play, the third-worst clip in the FBS.    It is the 7th ranked conference in the ncaa.  

 

Hawaii, New Mexico and San Jose State all mustered a single conference triumph, and Nevada joined the trio with a 3-9 record or worse.

 

 

2017 Game Log			Passing								Rushing					QBR
DATE	OPP	RESULT	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	LNG	TD	INT	RAT	ATT	YDS	AVG	LNG	TD	RAW QBR	ADJ QBR
9/2	@Iowa	L 24-3	23	40	174	57.5	23	0	2	84.0	8	-10	-1.3	11	0	29.6	48.8
9/9	Gardner-Webb	W 27-0	22	32	328	68.8	47	2	0	175.5	0	0	0.0	0	0	96.1	89.3
9/16	Oregon	L 49-13	9	24	64	37.5	21	0	1	51.6	8	25	3.1	10	1	6.9	9.4
9/23	Hawai'i	W 28-21 (OT)	9	19	92	47.4	25	1	0	105.4	6	17	2.8	22	0	81.9	58.1
9/30	Texas State	W 45-10	14	24	219	58.3	40	3	0	176.2	8	12	1.5	9	0	88.0	75.1
10/14	@Utah State	W 28-23	18	26	208	69.2	28	1	1	141.4	16	36	2.3	16	1	59.0	64.7
10/21	@Boise State	L 24-14	12	27	131	44.4	30	1	2	82.6	18	62	3.4	19	1	62.5	69.6
10/28	New Mexico	W 42-3	16	28	234	57.1	38	4	0	174.5	4	20	5.0	11	1	77.7	61.5
11/4	Colorado State	W 16-13	10	20	138	50.0	21	0	0	108.0	12	60	5.0	18	0	40.9	31.6
11/11	@Air Force	W 28-14	8	11	70	72.7	17	1	0	156.2	4	-15	-3.8	2	1	83.6	66.4
11/18	Fresno State	L 13-7	No statistics available.
11/25	@San Jose State	L 20-17	No statistics available.
12/22	Central Michigan	W 37-14	11	19	154	57.9	45	3	0	178.1	8	-3	-0.4	7	0	88.3

Notice the QB rating against Iowa (29) and Oregon (6.9)    Fairly good teams.   ouch.

 

 

 

So his record against ranking was

opponent   no.     record

1-25              1        0-1

26-50            2        0-2

51-100          5       4-1

101-150       1       1-0
151 +          4         3-1

 

I didn't triple check the numbers, so don't nitpick.  Allen did NOT play against top notch opponents.  In the film that you see on him, he is not throwing against too many DB's who will be in the pros.   I'm not a expert, but I don't see consistent success against top notch competition.  I don't see him playing and succeeding against good playeers.    I would be concerned about draft him as a project.

 

 

 

 

well he should be there at 12 then....?

[maryland-bills-fan]

Just now, billsredneck1 said:

well he should be there at 12 then....?

I wouldn't take him at #12 myself.   I can not understand why there is such hype about him unless some pundits see who was drafted from a small school last year and want to be first on the bandwagon- and caused a stampede of people wanted to be on the smart side.  Or is it a bunch of smoke screens?     My opinion is that they guy doesn't have a clue about such things as how fast a good corner back can recover and step in to intercept a pass.   They say the game gets faster and faster every level. I wonder if the guy can recalibrate his head to the change in speed. When he sees a WR come open in his league, well the guy is open and he can drill the ball in there.  But with better CB's, its a whole different world.  His record against top 50 teams is poor.  He hasn't shown he can play with the big boys.  Maybe he didn't have to teammates to do so.  Maybe he can't.   Too much of a gamble for the Bills.  I hope somebody takes him ahead of the Bills pick.   For the Bills, its a maybe in the 4th round.

 

 

 

 

 

[BillnutinHouston]

45 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

1.  Do the best scouting job you can

 

2.  Draft the guy you think is the answer; move up as needed to get him

 

3.  Hope you made the right call.

 

goes for Allen or anyone else they pick

 

4. Most importantly, have sufficient coaching quality on staff to DEVELOP the guy you picked.  

[gobills1212]

Fo reals?

[billsredneck1]

i'm kinda thinking it goes...

1. rosen  browns

2. darnold  giants    (or switch 1 and 2. i think the giants would be fools to pass on rosen.)

3  allen  jets  (i'd rather them take allen then mayfield.)

4. browns stay put  (barkley)

5. denver goes non qb  (nelson)

6. indy stays put  (chubb)

7. mayfield in play from here on out........or allen in which case we would probably just have to go to 10 so the fins don't get him. either way, we get one of the top 4 and save picks.

 

btw, i wouldn't be surprised to see chicago jump on mayfield if he was right there.

 

 

Edited April 19, 2018 by billsredneck1

[drf1835]

40 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

4. Pick a QB who can hit stationary targets.

 

 Like when Bill Polian and Mora were deciding on either weaker armed Manning who was significant,y more inaccurate after 50 yard passes, or stronger armed Leaf, Mora basically said to Polian, 'Manning it is, as we will just not have him pass over 50 yards" So, we can just tell our receivers to stop at point a, b or c, and that fastball will be there to knock your head off if you do not catch it. Seriously though, I rather have good guy, strong armed and mobile risk taker Josh Allen than more dink and dunk, injury prone, potential team divider Rosen. I think it is easier to fix footwork and timing mechanics than brittleness and personality, especially if one is smart, which I hear he is.,. Though I would support Rosen and the Bills if he was our qb, and then focus on all his positives and hope it works out as I could make a case for all the top 5 to 6 qbs.

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, LeGOATski said:

4. Pick a QB who can hit stationary targets.

Which he can.  The absurdity around here is reaching epic levels.

18 minutes ago, BillnutinHouston said:

 

4. Most importantly, have sufficient coaching quality on staff to DEVELOP the guy you picked.  

Good point

[Chuck Wagon]

Unless Allen is the smokescreen for everyone, there’s rumors Cleveland, the Giants, the jets and the Bills are all interested. Now that’s not exactly a murderers row of well run teams, but it’s a little better than the “experts” on here pulling up stats and random youtube videos. If we decide Allen is our guy all we can hope we he’s developed properly, same stands for any other QB. 

[4merper4mer]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

1.  Do the best scouting job you can

 

2.  Draft the guy you think is the answer; move up as needed to get him

 

3.  Hope you made the right call.

 

goes for Allen or anyone else they pick

In principle this is exactly right.  It may be difficult in practice.  For instance, people are wildly fooling themselves if they think Denver is not taking a QB.  The only chance is if three are gone and they QBs are gone before the Colts are on the clock.

[Epstein's Mother]

39 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

I wouldn't take him at #12 myself.   I can not understand why there is such hype about him unless some pundits see who was drafted from a small school last year and want to be first on the bandwagon- and caused a stampede of people wanted to be on the smart side.  Or is it a bunch of smoke screens?     My opinion is that they guy doesn't have a clue about such things as how fast a good corner back can recover and step in to intercept a pass.   They say the game gets faster and faster every level. I wonder if the guy can recalibrate his head to the change in speed. When he sees a WR come open in his league, well the guy is open and he can drill the ball in there.  But with better CB's, its a whole different world.  His record against top 50 teams is poor.  He hasn't shown he can play with the big boys.  Maybe he didn't have to teammates to do so.  Maybe he can't.   Too much of a gamble for the Bills.  I hope somebody takes him ahead of the Bills pick.   For the Bills, its a maybe in the 4th round.

 

 

Agreed.  There is not much history that suggests a quarterback can become something in the NFL that he wasn't in college.

[Homey D. Clown]

1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Josh Allen has the look of what you want in a QB.  A big guy who can throw it through a brick wall.   Good character- not a butt-head.   What bothers me about him is that he played at a low level of competition and did poorly when facing teams in the top 50.  I wonder if he ever played against more than a handful of NFL-quality defensive backs in his 2 year college career. (Reedly JC for  first two years).  Usually, you want to see the guy do good against the top competition, or if he is at a lower level, he should dominate.  I don't see that he did that.  Let's look at his 2017 results and opponents.

 

 

The Mountain West compiled a .436 winning percentage in nonconference play, the third-worst clip in the FBS.    It is the 7th ranked conference in the ncaa.  

 

Hawaii, New Mexico and San Jose State all mustered a single conference triumph, and Nevada joined the trio with a 3-9 record or worse.

 

 

2017 Game Log			Passing								Rushing					QBR
DATE	OPP	RESULT	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	LNG	TD	INT	RAT	ATT	YDS	AVG	LNG	TD	RAW QBR	ADJ QBR
9/2	@Iowa	L 24-3	23	40	174	57.5	23	0	2	84.0	8	-10	-1.3	11	0	29.6	48.8
9/9	Gardner-Webb	W 27-0	22	32	328	68.8	47	2	0	175.5	0	0	0.0	0	0	96.1	89.3
9/16	Oregon	L 49-13	9	24	64	37.5	21	0	1	51.6	8	25	3.1	10	1	6.9	9.4
9/23	Hawai'i	W 28-21 (OT)	9	19	92	47.4	25	1	0	105.4	6	17	2.8	22	0	81.9	58.1
9/30	Texas State	W 45-10	14	24	219	58.3	40	3	0	176.2	8	12	1.5	9	0	88.0	75.1
10/14	@Utah State	W 28-23	18	26	208	69.2	28	1	1	141.4	16	36	2.3	16	1	59.0	64.7
10/21	@Boise State	L 24-14	12	27	131	44.4	30	1	2	82.6	18	62	3.4	19	1	62.5	69.6
10/28	New Mexico	W 42-3	16	28	234	57.1	38	4	0	174.5	4	20	5.0	11	1	77.7	61.5
11/4	Colorado State	W 16-13	10	20	138	50.0	21	0	0	108.0	12	60	5.0	18	0	40.9	31.6
11/11	@Air Force	W 28-14	8	11	70	72.7	17	1	0	156.2	4	-15	-3.8	2	1	83.6	66.4
11/18	Fresno State	L 13-7	No statistics available.
11/25	@San Jose State	L 20-17	No statistics available.
12/22	Central Michigan	W 37-14	11	19	154	57.9	45	3	0	178.1	8	-3	-0.4	7	0	88.3

Notice the QB rating against Iowa (29) and Oregon (6.9)    Fairly good teams.   ouch.

 

 

 

So his record against ranking was

opponent   no.     record

1-25              1        0-1

26-50            2        0-2

51-100          5       4-1

101-150       1       1-0
151 +          4         3-1

 

I didn't triple check the numbers, so don't nitpick.  Allen did NOT play against top notch opponents.  In the film that you see on him, he is not throwing against too many DB's who will be in the pros.   I'm not a expert, but I don't see consistent success against top notch competition.  I don't see him playing and succeeding against good playeers.    I would be concerned about draft him as a project.

 

 

 

 

 

I feel like he'll be another Paxton Lynch